Poll: Debbie Mucarsel-Powell trails Rick Scott by just 2 points

Yet another survey shows that Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell has a shot at unseating Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Scott next month.

Pollsters found the former Congresswoman trails Scott by just 2 percentage points, which is more or less what a few other queries determined in recent months.

Marist Poll spoke to 1,510 Florida adults Oct. 3-7 by phone, text and online. Of them, 1,257 say they are definitely voting in this year’s General Election.

As of last week, 50% of likely voters statewide — including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate — say they intend to vote for Scott, while 48% side with Mucarsel-Powell. That 2-percentage-point divide is well within the poll’s 3.6-point margin of error.

“The battle for the U.S. Senate seat between Scott and Mucarsel-Powell is neck-and-neck,” said Dr. Lee Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. “Florida voters view Scott’s challenger favorably, but a large proportion need to still form an opinion of her. And that will determine the winner.”

Mucarsel-Powell, who served one term before losing her re-election bid in 2020, enjoys more net favorability than Scott with likely voters. But that may be because many voters don’t know enough about her to have an opinion.

While 37% of respondents report having a positive impression of Mucarsel-Powell compared to 23% who view her negatively, a far larger share (40%) say they’ve either never heard of her or have insufficient information about her.

Just 11% say the same of Scott, Florida’s immediate past Governor. Among those familiar enough to judge him, 44% say they like him and 45% say they don’t.

Seventy-six percent of those with a candidate preference indicate that little will likely change their mind between now and Election Day.

Scott has complained, and since repeated an unfounded claim, that he was the victim of voter fraud when he was elected to the Senate in 2018 by a 0.1-percentage-point margin of victory. Multiple investigations into the matter found no evidence to support his allegation.

Whether he raises the issue again next month remains to be seen, but most Florida voters (79%) told Marist pollsters they were confident state and local officials will carry out a fair and accurate election.

Asked what they consider to be the most important issues this election, 29% say inflation, 25% say preserving democracy, 18% point to immigration, 13% mention abortion and 8% say health care is top-of-mind.

An equal share (25% apiece) say strong leadership or honesty and trustworthiness is the biggest factor they consider when choosing a candidate. Eighteen percent say they want someone whose policy positions most reflect theirs, while 15% prefer someone with the same values as them.

Other recent polls found Scott with a larger lead, including one Associated Industries of Florida conducted late last month showing Scott ahead by 7 points and another by Redfield & Wilton in which Scott was found to be 4 points in front of his challenger.

The General Election is on Nov. 5.