Janelle Irwin Taylor
A relatively new political analysis site, CNalysis, has shifted its forecast in the 2024 race for Florida’s 13th Congressional District from “leans” Republican to “tilt” Republican, an improvement for Democratic candidate Whitney Fox who is challenging incumbent Republican Anna Paulina Luna.
The shift was one of a handful the outlet made earlier this week, including races in Alabama, Alaska, California, New York and Pennsylvania. The site now gives Luna a 6 in 10 chance of winning re-election over Fox.
The shift puts CD 13 in CNalysis’ list of most competitive races, and aligns with recent trends in the race that have shifted in Fox’s favor, while still giving Luna the edge.
It’s worth watching the four-year old analysis site, founded by Chaz Nuttycombe in 2020. His analysis came into prominence while he was still a student at Virginia Tech. Its primary claim to fame is its focus on state legislative races nationwide, a feat few analysts take on. In 2023, he correctly predicted every single race for the Virginia Legislature, drawing the attention of some seasoned political analysts.
Since then, CNalysis has grown in both popularity and in respect, with more than 1 million page views and more than 250,000 unique visitors. Nuttycombe’s personal X account has more than 22,000 followers and he regularly provides insights to reporters from major media outlets, such as The New York Times and The Washington Post, according to Virginia Tech News. The Guardian has also spotlighted Nuttycombe’s work.
To put the prediction further into perspective, the site 270 to Win, which aggregates election data for presidential races (270 electoral votes are needed to clinch the presidency) and down-ballot races, included the CNalysis predictions for House races on its site.
Now, Fox’s campaign is jumping at the opportunity to build momentum for what people a year ago had considered an unwinnable race — Cook Political Report still lists the district as R+6 because of the voter registration advantage for Republicans.
In a fundraising email to supporters earlier this week, Fox’s campaign noted they were “officially upgraded,” though the email incorrectly attributes the shift to 270 to Win, not CNalysis. Still, the email notes the shift signals “our district is now more competitive than ever.”
“This is a major shift that reflects what we’ve seen on the ground — voters are tired of Anna Paulina Luna’s harmful disinformation and partisan games. They’re craving a leader who will defend their rights and work for real progress,” the email reads, before offering caution.
“This also raises the stakes immensely,” the email continues. “Luna’s allies are watching closely, and they’re throwing everything they’ve got at us to halt our momentum.”
That’s when the pitch for contributions comes in.
There has been a string of momentum for Fox, even as odds still favor Luna. Late last month the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) added Fox to its “Red to Blue” program, signaling its confidence in her ability to pull off a flip. Inclusion means access to DCCC staff and other resources, which can make a huge difference in a race against a well-funded incumbent.
Fox managed to outraise Luna in the third quarter of 2024, and she nearly closed the cash gap with Luna. Fox raised more than $1 million in the period covering July through September, slightly more than the $952,000 Luna raised in the same period. That helped chip away at Luna’s cash advantage, with Luna now having only about $5,000 more on hand than her Democratic challenger.
Fox is also hoping to capitalize on a vote that didn’t age well for Luna. The day before Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida, causing catastrophic damage up and down Florida’s Gulf coast both in and beyond her district, Luna voted against funding for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).
While Luna later called on House Speaker Mike Johnson to reconvene to pass hurricane relief funding, Fox, who also called for Congress to reconvene, is making sure voters don’t forget a vote that could have slowed storm recovery resources.
“Let that sink in,” Fox said in a video statement at the time. “As the worst storm in our lifetime was hours away, Luna couldn’t set aside her partisan games for even a moment. She voted to delay critical FEMA aid and emergency support when we would need it most. This isn’t leadership — it’s a catastrophic failure. We need a Representative who will fight for us, not against us. I’ll always put Pinellas first, not politics.”
Still, Luna may have salvaged the news cycle, seemingly setting partisanship aside to meet with President Joe Biden as he surveyed storm damage after Hurricane Milton in her district. Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis was notably absent from the event.
With the election less than three weeks away, and mail ballots already being returned, Fox is running out of time to continue building momentum, but latest trends show she may have a better shot at victory than some had predicted earlier in the cycle.
