Miami-Dade GOP Chair predicts red ‘sweep’ based on early voting numbers

Republicans continue to lead Democrats during early voting in Miami-Dade, and the county party’s Chair believes the turnout portends a crushing victory on Nov. 5.

It started Thursday at 2:20 p.m.

That was the moment Republicans overtook Democrats in early and mail-in votes. The trend continued through 12:30 p.m. Friday when Republicans in the county had a 5,138-vote (1.5%) lead over Democrats.

“I feel very confident that not only will Donald Trump win Miami-Dade County, but I think we’re going to have a sweep,” Miami-Dade GOP Chair Alex Rizo said. “We will not lose a Republican seat in the House or the Senate, and I feel very confident we are going to have all of the five constitutional officers.”

Recent election cycles have produced diminishing returns for Miami-Dade Democrats, who today represent just one of four congressional districts, two of six state Senate districts, and five of 12 districts in the state House.

Miami-Dade Commissioner Kevin Marino Cabrera, a conservative strategist-turned-politician who led Trump’s 2020 election efforts in Florida, has worked alongside other party leaders for well over a year to build a slate of “viable” candidates to usher in a GOP win in the state’s most populous county. And it’s worked, he said.

“For the first time since 1988, Miami-Dade could go red in a presidential election, creating a coattail effect benefiting GOP candidates and marking a historic shift in our political landscape,” he said on X.

Meanwhile, there’s been no shortage of upheaval among Miami-Dade Democrats. In early March, Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried — a Miami native and the last Democrat to win a statewide office — suspended then-county party Chair Robert Dempster. She cited “ongoing and unresolved issues” within the county party involving compliance and procedural issues. Dempster’s ouster was “part of an overall strategy to get Miami-Dade back on track” after a cavalcade of dejecting election outcomes.

By May 1, the county party had elected a new leader: Miami Gardens Sen. Shevrin Jones, a charismatic and buoyant figure with experience mobilizing voters. However, despite Jones’ popularity and a general agreement that he was a strong choice for Chair, his election to the top of the Miami-Dade Democratic Party wasn’t without controversy.

Documentarian Billy Corben and two other notable local figures also ran for the chair position. But Corben dropped out of the race shortly before the vote. He complained that the process was futile, as state party leaders had already decided Jones was the pick and were doing everything they could, with Jones’ assistance, to install him.

Jones strove to energize the party and build a consensus within its more active ranks. But unrest persisted. This month, he removed a committee Chair after she emailed members advising them not to vote for certain Democrats.

Democratic candidate Jackie Gross-Kellogg, who is running to unseat a first-term Republican lawmaker in bluer-than-not House District 113, got snubbed by some members of her party.

Miami-Dade Commission Chair Oliver Gilbert, who co-hosted a post-event reception with Jones for the party’s Blue Gala event last month, endorsed Gross-Kellogg’s Republican opponent. So did the United Teachers of Dade union that vehemently opposes Florida’s expanded school vouchers program, which HD 113 incumbent Rep. Vicki Lopez supported.

Gross-Kellogg only began receiving assistance from the Florida Democratic Party early this month. By then, she told Florida Politics she had still not spoken with anyone from state party leadership.

Through Oct. 4, the Florida Democratic Party had given Gross-Kellogg $1,000 worth of in-kind polling aid. That’s more than it contributed to other candidates like Norma Perez Schwartz, who is running for the open but Republican-leaning House District 115 seat.

One month before Election Day, Perez Schwartz listed one in-kind contribution from the state party: $5.65 for “volunteer texts.”

Miami-Dade Republicans haven’t emerged from the cycle unscathed. In late August, Rizo and other members of the Florida GOP discussed updating the party’s bylaws after three members facing indictments won seats on the Miami-Dade Republican Executive Committee.

State Rep. Fabián Basabe of Miami Beach has faced multiple accusations of impropriety, two of which House investigators dismissed for lacking evidence and another the Miami Herald reported on Friday involving an alleged rape from more than two decades ago. Lopez also is under scrutiny over her support of a school bus camera vendor that employs two of her family members and gave $755,000 to state and local officials.

Then there is Christian Ziegler, who was removed as Florida GOP Chair in January after the sexual partner of his and his wife, Sarasota School Board member and Moms for Liberty co-founder Bridget Ziegler, accused him of rape. Prosecutors ultimately determined that the sex was “likely consensual” and declined to pursue charges against him for recording the encounter on video.

Basabe and Lopez have denied all wrongdoing, though nonprofit investigative newsroom The Tributary published texts Lopez sent to at least one other state lawmaker seeking a connection between her son and the Duval County School Board, where the camera vendor sought business.

Jones maintained Friday that the game is far from over in Miami-Dade. He told Florida Politics he and others in the party “remain focused on executing our plan through these final 11 days” and that they were confident Democrats, who hold a 44,074-voter advantage in the county, would win the day.

“We’re continuing to work closely with the coordinated campaign as we reach voters where they are, mobilize volunteers across the county, and tracking numbers closely as we get out the vote,” he said. “We’re running through the tape and leaving no stone unturned between now and Election Day.”

Rizo said the on-the-ground enthusiasm he’s seeing is shocking, and he thinks it’s worse for Miami-Dade Democrats than early voting numbers suggest.

He suggested that many Democrats are unhappy with their party’s direction and vote instead for Republicans, who they believe better represent their interests.

“This goes across party lines,” he said.

“We know independent voters want to vote conservative. But we also know there are a lot of Democratic voters that aren’t happy with the way they see things going with their party.”