Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics — 10.28.24

Good Monday morning.

A top-of-the-‘burn birthday shoutout to our friend Alia Faraj-Johnson, currently featured in INFLUENCE Magazine as one of Florida politics’ “Great Communicators.”

___

Ballard Partners is proud to announce the expansion of the Ballard Global Alliance through a strategic partnership with Cefeidas Group in the Argentine Republic.

This partnership gives Ballard Partners a presence in Latin America, allowing its clients to experience seamless and effective public affairs services in the hemisphere. Through its synergy with Ballard’s offices, Cefeidas Group will enhance its operational capabilities and expand its presence in Washington, D.C., along with other key U.S. hubs.

“We are delighted to partner with Cefeidas Group, a distinguished firm renowned for its excellence in Latin America. With a strong track record of delivering exceptional insights and client-centered solutions, Cefeidas Group aligns with our shared commitment to providing comprehensive services,” said Brian Ballard, president and founder of Ballard Partners.

“Through this collaboration, both our firms will be positioned to offer premier services, granting our clients access to in-depth expertise and an expanded range of government affairs solutions in both the Southern Cone and the United States.”

The Ballard-Cefeidas Group collaboration will empower clients to navigate complex regulatory environments, build strategic relationships with key decision-makers, and explore new opportunities across the United States and Latin America.

“We are thrilled to collaborate with Ballard Partners. This partnership will increase our capacity to provide our clients with enhanced and unparalleled access to American markets, industries and institutions,” said Juan Cruz Díaz, Managing Director of Cefeidas Group. “This is a pivotal time for Latin America, and our clients will be positioned to take full advantage of the cooperation throughout the hemisphere.”

The new partnership will allow both firms to provide a comprehensive suite of strategic services in the Southern Cone and the U.S., including public policy advocacy, regulatory affairs analysis, risk and crisis management and international market consulting.

___

Uber has strengthened its Southern Region Policy team by hiring Stefanie Sass as Public Policy Manager and Lizzie Pittinger as Public Policy Senior Associate.

“We’re thrilled to welcome Stef and Lizzie to the Uber team,” said Javi Correoso, head of Public Policy and Communications for the South Region. “They both have outstanding reputations in their prior positions and bring a wealth of experience to the team here at Uber.”

Sass joins Uber with 12 years of government and political experience, most recently serving as Chief of Staff to Miami-Dade County’s Chief Operating Officer, Jimmy Morales.

Before that, she was Director of Congressional Affairs at NASA HQ in Washington, D.C. Notably, in the 2020 presidential cycle, she served as Southern Finance Director for Kamala Harris for the People and later as Deputy Southeast Finance Director for Joe Biden for President.

Pittinger comes from Volkswagen Group of America’s Public Affairs team in Washington, D.C., where she was a Senior Specialist, representing the company in their federal and state advocacy efforts and community relations initiatives.

— SITUATIONAL AWARENESS —

—@realDonaldTrump: WHEN I’M PRESIDENT THE MCDONALD’S ICE CREAM MACHINES WILL WORK GREAT AGAIN!

—@AlecAHernandez: As (Donald) Trump courts the Latino vote, a comedian in the preprogram of the MSG rally makes this joke: “There’s literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now. I think it’s called Puerto Rico?” The third largest PR diaspora in the U.S. lives in Pennsylvania

Tweet, tweet:

—@SamFr: It’s kind of incredible that Barack Obama can be one of the best political speakers we’ve seen this century and still not be the best speaker in his own family.

— DAYS UNTIL —

Florida TaxWatch’s 45th Annual Meeting – 2; 2024 Presidential Election – 8; second half of Yellowstone season five premieres – 9; USF stadium groundbreaking — 11; Taylor Sheridan’s ‘Landman’ premieres – 18; ‘Dune: Prophecy’ premieres on HBO — 20; News Service of Florida’s Above & Beyond Awards, honoring women in government and public service — 22; Legislature’s 2025 Organizational Session – 24; Las Vegas Grand Prix – 24; ‘Wicked’ premieres — 25; ‘Moana 2’ premieres – 30; ‘Chef’s Table’ returns to Netflix — 30; 2024 Florida Chamber Annual Insurance Summit begins – 36; Florida Chamber 2024 Florida Transportation, Growth & Infrastructure Solution Summit — 36; MLS Cup 2024 – 40; Army-Navy game — 47; ‘Mufasa: The Lion King’ premieres – 53; College Football Playoff begins – 55; ‘Squid Game’ season two premieres – 59; Fiesta, Peach, Rose & Sugar Bowls – 65; Orange Bowl – 73; ‘Severance’ season two debuts – 88; Super Bowl LIX — 104; ‘Captain America: Brave New World’ premieres – 116; the 2025 Oscars – 125; Florida’s 2025 Legislative Session begins – 127; Tampa Bay Rays season opener — 150; 2025 Session ends – 186; ‘Thunderbolts’ premieres – 186; Epic Universe grand opening — 206; ‘Karate Kid: Legends’ premieres — 214; ‘Fantastic Four – First Steps’ premieres – 270; ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ premieres – 417; ‘Avengers 5’ premieres – 554; Untitled ‘Star Wars’ movie premieres – 571; FIFA World Cup 26™ final – 592; FIFA World Cup 26™ final match – 630; ‘The Batman 2’ premieres – 709; Another untitled ‘Star Wars’ movie premieres – 782; ‘Avengers: Secret Wars’ premieres – 922; 2028 Los Angeles Olympics Opening Ceremony — 1,355; ‘Avatar 4’ premieres – 1,881; ‘Avatar 5’ premieres – 2,602.

— TOP STORY —

“Ron DeSantis isn’t on the ballot this year. But his political future might be.” via Gary Fineout and Kimberly Leonard of POLITICO — DeSantis has made himself the face of the opposition to two constitutional amendments dealing with abortion and marijuana, even after former President Trump endorsed the measure that would allow recreational marijuana. (Trump said he’d vote against the abortion measure.)

The Governor has used his political clout and his official office to mount a ferocious counterattack on both initiatives, a move that has sparked several lawsuits and drawn criticism.

In big ways and small, DeSantis has spent his political capital in this fight. Just this past week, DeSantis and First Lady Casey DeSantis held several official “news conferences” that functioned as rallies against the two amendments. DeSantis’ Chief of Staff James Uthmeier — the same person who managed his short-lived presidential campaign — this past Monday called on GOP members of Congress from the state to raise at least $50,000 to pay for last-minute ads against Amendment 4, the abortion initiative.

DeSantis’ political future is deeply tied to his final two years in office. His unsuccessful presidential bid was rooted in his “Florida Blueprint” and how he had beaten back Democrats and liberal elites. If voters approve one or both of the initiatives, which must win 60% approval instead of a simple majority, it would signify how the Governor’s influence in the state has waned since he ended his presidential bid.

“I think he’s put his political career on the line,” said state Sen. Joe Gruters, the former Chair of the Republican Party of Florida who is helping support Amendment 3 — the marijuana initiative — and notes pointedly that “the bottom line is that I’m with the President.”

— 2024 — PRESIDENTIAL —

“Voters are deeply skeptical about the health of American Democracy” via Nick Corasaniti, Ruth Igielnik, and Camille Baker of The New York Times — Nearly half of all voters are skeptical that the American experiment in self-governance is working, with 45% believing that the nation’s democracy does not do a good job representing ordinary people. Three-quarters of voters in the United States say democracy is under threat, though their perception of the forces imperiling it varies widely based on partisan leanings. And a majority of voters believe that the country is plagued by corruption, with 62% saying that the government is mostly working to benefit itself and its elites rather than the common good. The eroding faith in the nearly 250-year-old American system of government follows four years of unparalleled challenges: a violent riot in an attempt to overturn the 2020 Presidential Election, the criminal conviction of Trump and Trump’s continued insistence that the democratic process is rigged.

“Kamala Harris adopts Donald Trump’s playbook as she targets his age and competence” via Maeve Reston and Ashley Parker of The Washington Post — When Trump abruptly ended a recent Pennsylvania town hall to sway and dance to his self-curated playlist for 39 minutes, Harris posted a three-word response on social media: “Hope he’s OK.” After the former President proclaimed himself “the father of IVF” before an all-female audience in Georgia, a bemused Harris rolled the Fox clip at her own rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin: “What does that even mean?” she asked her audience with an incredulous laugh. And that same week, she repeatedly cited a Politico report claiming Trump had withdrawn from some interview negotiations due to “exhaustion” to argue that the former President doesn’t have the stamina to serve as commander in chief. For months, Trump and his allies relentlessly taunted the President about his age.

“Will Trump’s unbridled rhetoric cost him the U.S. election?” via James Oliphant of Reuters — With his third straight U.S. presidential campaign coming down to the wire, Trump mused at a rally about hydrogen-powered cars exploding, lamented how difficult it is to get spray paint off limestone and marveled at how billionaire backer Elon Musk’s rocket had returned to Earth in one piece. He complained Harris wasn’t working as hard as he was, praised Chinese President Xi Jinping as “fierce,” and called Obama “a real jerk.”

“Elon Musk says people accusing Trump of endangering democracy are the real danger” via CBS News — The world’s richest man, Musk, addressed a crowded town hall Saturday in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, where he downplayed the Jan. 6 U.S. Capitol riot and suggested mail ballots were a “recipe for fraud.” In response to a man who asked Musk what his message was to young voters who worry “that voting for a second Trump presidency will lead to democratic backsliding,” Musk replied, “The media tries to characterize Jan. 6 as some sort of violent insurrection, which is simply not the case,” he said, prompting applause from the crowd. More than 100 law enforcement personnel were injured in the attack, some beaten with their own weapons, when a mob of Trump supporters who believed his lies that the 2020 Election was stolen from him stormed the Capitol to stop the certification of votes.

“Trump’s gains in New York City offer clues to a shifting electoral map” via Nate Cohn of The New York Times — Trump has made important gains among Black, Hispanic and younger voters, but it increasingly seems his gains will vary greatly from state to state or even city to city. For instance, our recent poll of nearby Philadelphia showed Harris doing just fine there (79-16). Of course, there are many differences between the two cities, but they’ve voted very similarly for decades. Just a few years ago, no one would have guessed that New York and Philadelphia would part political ways. The polls suggest that something is driving them apart — or perhaps more accurately, drove them apart. The New York City result fits a national pattern — one where Trump excels in the places where Republicans fared best in the Midterm Elections while Harris holds up elsewhere. This is very unusual.

“Trump-supporting comedian opens rally by calling Puerto Rico a ‘floating pile of garbage’” via Josh Meyer of USA Today — A comedian at Trump’s Madison Square Garden signature closing rally joked about Latinos having too many babies, called Puerto Rico a floating garbage island and referred to “carving watermelons” with a Black friend. “There’s a lot going on. I don’t know if you know this, but there’s literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now,” Tony Hinchliffe, who goes by the stage name Kill Tony, said on Sunday. He paused before delivering his punchline. “I think it’s called Puerto Rico.” The opening-act comments for Trump’s speech by Hinchcliffe drew laughs and some groans from the crowd. Kill Tony, Hinchcliffe’s comedy show with nearly 2 million YouTube subscribers, often features new and established comedians making raunchy jokes and has drawn criticism from many listeners for being racist and sexist.

“CBS News Harris-Trump poll has closer look inside gender gap as Trump, Harris draw even” via Anthony Salvanto of CBS News — Vote differences in the 2024 Election between men and women are not just cross tabs on a poll memo. They reflect divergent attitudes about larger social matters, such as gender equality in the U.S. More immediately, they mark differences in how candidates are seen, with more women saying only Harris has the cognitive health to serve and more men thinking Trump would be a “strong leader.” Here’s one example. Men are more likely to say efforts in the U.S. to promote gender equality have gone too far of late. When they do, they’re voting overwhelmingly for Trump. Women are more apt to say those efforts haven’t gone far enough. Voters who say this are overwhelmingly for Harris.

“Highlighting Trump’s support for ‘stop-and-frisk’ could help Harris among young Black men, poll finds” via Shia Kapos of POLITICO — A new poll suggests a path for Harris to claw back support among a small but significant share of young Black men who have drifted toward Trump this year. When Millennial and Gen Z Black men were prompted with questions about some of Trump’s preferences, like supporting “stop-and-frisk” policies, Harris’ support shot up by 14 points. Though favorable for Harris, “it’s not anywhere near where she needs to be,” said Alvin Tillery, a Northwestern University professor who created the PAC through the 2040 Strategy Group, a boutique consulting firm focused on polling and strategic communications.

—”The state of play in the seven states that will decide the election” via Nate Silver of the Silver Bulletin

“Harris regains slight lead nationally, yet Electoral College holds the cards” via Gary Langer of ABC News — Harris has regained a slight lead among likely voters nationally in the latest ABC News/Ipsos poll, albeit with the race close enough to leave the outcome of the 2024 Presidential Election to the uncertainties of the Electoral College. Turnout is key. Just two percentage points divide Harris and Trump among all registered voters, 49-47%. This gives a slight Harris advantage among likely voters, 51-47%, with some pro-Harris groups showing more propensity to vote. Compared with earlier this month, Harris has regained a more customary Democratic advantage among Hispanic people and widened her advantage among suburban women while remaining strong in core groups, including Black people. Trump pushes back in rural areas and among non-college white men and runs competitively among younger men.

“These super PACs are spending more to get Trump elected than his campaign itself” via Jessica Piper of POLITICO — Trump is counting on heavy financial backing from an array of super PACs to get him elected — far more than Harris is. The groups supporting Trump, working across different platforms to get him elected, spent far more money than the President’s campaign in a crucial stretch before the election. Harris’ massive operation, meanwhile, still spent more than the outside groups backing her. The six largest Trump-supporting super PACs spent $159.6 million in the first 16 days of October, compared to $99 million from the former President’s campaign.

“Could Trump win the popular vote but lose the electoral college?” via Nate Cohn of The New York Times — Harris and Trump are tied at 48% in the final New York Times/Siena College national poll of the cycle today. When minor party candidates are included, Trump leads by one percentage point. This shows an extremely close race — and it’s not the only poll to do so. Over the last week or so, several high-quality polls have shown a tied race or even had Trump pulling ahead. For instance, a Wall Street Journal poll found Trump up three points, while CNBC showed him two points ahead. All of this raises a possibility that few people would have contemplated at the beginning of the cycle: a Trump victory in the national popular vote.

“Joe Rogan asked Trump for specifics on how 2020 was stolen. Then could only laugh at the answer” via Alex Lang of The Independent — Rogan could be seen laughing as he pressed Trump for specifics on how the election was stolen in 2020. The Republican nominee sat down Friday for an interview with the No. 1 podcaster. The interview ran for three hours and delayed Trump’s appearance in Traverse City, Michigan, later in the day. At one point, Trump and Rogan started to discuss the 2020 Election. “I won by like,” Trump said, “I lost by like … I didn’t lose.” Rogan could then be seen laughing. “They say I lost, Joe, they say I lost by 22,000 votes,” Trump continued. “That’s like one one-tenth of one percent; it’s less than that. It’s a tiny little thing. Twenty-two thousand votes that’s spread all over this period.

“‘Frankenstein coalition’: Can Trump win Barstool and Bible-study Republicans?” via Adam Wren of POLITICO — Trump is turning not just to football games, WWE, and the Barstool Sports crowd as he scrambles to get men to the polls. He’s also looking to the pews. For years, White evangelicals have been one of Trump’s most reliable constituencies. But when he took the stage at his “Believers and Ballots” town hall in Zebulon, Georgia, he acknowledged the problem he could have this year. “Christians are not tremendous voters in terms of percentage,” Trump said, fielding a question from a young man about the latest survey from the evangelical pollster George Barna that suggested 32 million regular churchgoers may stay home on Election Day — a doomsday scenario for the former President. “If they were, we’d never lose an election,” Trump said.

“Advisers propose that Trump give security clearances without FBI vetting” via Maggie Haberman, Jonathan Swan and Charlie Savage of The New York Times — A memo circulating among at least half a dozen advisers to Trump recommends that if he is elected, he bypass traditional background checks by law enforcement officials and immediately grant security clearances to a large number of his appointees after being sworn in. A small group is promoting the proposal, including Boris Epshteyn, a top legal adviser to Trump who was influential in its development. It is not clear whether Trump has seen the proposal or whether he is inclined to adopt it if he takes office. But it would allow him to quickly install loyalists in prominent positions without subjecting them to the risk of long-running and intrusive FBI background checks, potentially increasing the risks of people with problematic histories or ties to other nations being given influential White House roles.

“Trump, who once proposed a Muslim registry, now courts their votes” via Michael Gold of The New York Times — When he ran for President eight years ago, Trump floated the idea of creating a national registry of Muslims and proposed banning immigration from Muslim countries. So, it was striking to see him on Saturday at a rally in suburban Detroit celebrating endorsements from a handful of Muslim and Arab American leaders. It was a political turnaround that would have seemed unthinkable during Trump’s first campaign when he frequently spouted anti-Muslim rhetoric. As President, Trump blocked travel from several predominantly Muslim countries, creating travel chaos. And at moments during this campaign, he has drawn on the anti-Muslim sentiments from earlier in his political career. But in a tight election, Trump and his campaign have been trying to win the support of Arab American and Muslim voters who may be disaffected with Democrats over President Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza and the party’s positions on social issues.

“JD Vance says he thinks Trump believes in Constitution” via Lauren Irwin of The Hill — Vance said he believes his running mate, Trump, believes in the Constitution. Vance, the Republican vice presidential nominee, joined CBS’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday, where host Margaret Brennan asked him if he would defend the Constitution and make sure Trump does, too. “Of course, but I don’t worry about Donald Trump. I think that Donald Trump believes in the Constitution. It’s why he’s running for President a third time because he’s worried that Kamala Harris has broken the greatest economy in the world,” Vance replied. Brennan interjected, noting that Trump has talked about ending the Constitution and challenging the election results after the 2020 Election and the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.

“Chinese hackers collected audio from a Trump campaign adviser’s calls – report” via Reuters — Chinese state-affiliated hackers intercepted audio from the phone calls of U.S. political figures, including an unnamed campaign adviser of Trump. Various media outlets reported on Friday that the Trump campaign was made aware last week that Trump and Vance were among several people inside and outside of government whose phone numbers were targeted through the infiltration of Verizon phone systems. The FBI and the U.S. cybersecurity and infrastructure security agencies confirmed they were investigating unauthorized access to commercial telecommunications infrastructure by people associated with China. However, they did not name the Trump campaign in the statement.

“Could Eminem snap Gen X voters back to reality?” via Jessica Grose of The New York Times — On Tuesday, Eminem stood at a podium in Detroit to introduce Obama at a rally for Harris. “People shouldn’t be afraid to express their opinions, and I don’t think anyone wants an America where people are worried about retribution or what people will do if you make your opinion known. I think Vice President Harris supports a future for this country where these freedoms and many others will be protected and upheld,” he said. Obama casually rapping a few bars of “Lose Yourself” got much more attention than Eminem’s brief speech. But in this tight election that could be decided by a few swing states — including Michigan — I wonder if Eminem’s endorsement, and the way he made it, will be the most consequential one Harris receives. Gen X has always been an ironizing generation that distrusts norms and corporations, and Trump has so far been more successful than Democrats in capturing that countercultural feel.

— 2024 — FLORIDA —

“Amendment 4 hits $100 million milestone in abortion-rights fight” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics — The Amendment 4 political committee’s fundraising has crossed the $100 million mark in the final weeks before the Nov. 5 election. Floridians Protecting Freedom (FPF), the PC backing the abortion-rights initiative, raised about $14 million from Oct. 12-18, according to the latest campaign finance report. It’s the third straight week the campaign has brought in more than $10 million, fueling the $100 million total it’s raised since April 2023. FPF also spent nearly $13 million last week. The fundraising comes as FPF is in a fierce battle against DeSantis, who is opposed to Amendment 4 and is using his podium and state resources to fight against it. The latest legal war has been over the state threatening TV stations with criminal prosecution for playing pro-Amendment 4 ads.

“DeSantis machine battles $100M ‘yes’ campaign in Florida’s abortion nail-biter” via Nathaniel Weixel of The Hill — The campaign to pass a ballot measure enshrining abortion rights in Florida’s Constitution has raked in cash in recent months, giving it a massive financial advantage over the opposition with days until votes are counted. But abortion-rights advocates are running into a political buzz saw as DeSantis and his allies in the administration deploy levers of government power to try to stop the amendment from passing. Floridians Protecting Freedom has raised over $100 million for the measure since the political group launched in April 2023, including $17.2 million in a single week in early October. The political committee launched by DeSantis to oppose the measure has raised only about $6.3 million total.

“Amendment 4 leader fears DeSantis’ threats in abortion-rights fight” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics — The political committee supporting Amendment 4 worries about the political pressure coming down from DeSantis after the state threatened TV stations with criminal prosecution for playing pro-abortion-rights commercials. The Department of Health has hired two law firms to follow up on the state’s threats, said Sara Latshaw, Chair of Floridians Protecting Freedom (FPF), in an affidavit filed Friday in FPF’s First Amendment lawsuit in federal court. “FPF now reviews external communications with an eye toward the threat of criminal prosecution, attempting to consider what statement the State may consider ‘false,’ regardless of whether FPF believes a given statement to be accurate,” Latshaw wrote. “Although FPF will continue to educate voters about Amendment 4 and Florida’s current law, the threat of prosecution is not one that FPF takes lightly.”

—2024 — MORE FLORIDA —

“‘Fully staffed’: Election offices relieved after feared poll-worker shortages don’t materialize” via Marshall Cohen, Curt Devine and Bob Ortega of CNN — Threats and smears against election officials and the voting process haven’t killed Americans’ confidence in the system and willingness to work the polls this year. Election administrators nationwide, including the top seven battleground states and big cities like Los Angeles and Minneapolis, are breathing a sigh of relief after the feared shortages of poll workers haven’t materialized. CNN surveyed various Democratic and Republican election workers, who largely said they are in good shape and have filled their ranks of volunteers and paid staffers who work at polling places, process mail ballots and help run the election. The top election official in Raleigh, North Carolina, said they are “fully staffed” with more than 3,000 workers trained for this year, a slight increase from 2020. The clerk of a small Michigan town near Lansing said he has more poll workers than he needs. Officials in Atlanta said they even “had to cut off recruitment” after a surge of interest.

“Hurricanes raise climate change as Senate race issue — but not by much” via Bruce Ritchie of POLITICO — Three hurricanes that ravaged Florida this year have raised the profile of climate change as an issue in the race for U.S. Senate. But only somewhat. While scientists say a warmer planet is fueling stronger hurricanes, neither Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Scott nor challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, a former Democratic member of Congress, are saying a lot about what they would do to address the issue. Scott, who environmentalists blamed for refusing to acknowledge climate change during his eight years as Governor, on Sept. 27 told CNN that the “climate is clearly changing.” “We’ve got to figure out how do we react to that,” Scott said.

Happening today — Trulieve CEO Kim Rivers, Sens. Shevrin Jones and Joe Gruters are hosting a series of events at Trulieve stores around the state in support of Amendment 3: 10 a.m., Trulieve Hallandale Beach Dispensary, 2100 East Hallandale Beach Blvd., Hallandale; 12:30 p.m., Trulieve West Palm Okeechobee Dispensary, 4139 Okeechobee Blvd., West Palm Beach; 3 p.m., Trulieve Orlando Semoran Dispensary, 6655 S. Semoran Blvd., Orlando.

— 2024 — DOWN-BALLOT 1 —

“No good choice for voters in U.S. House District 26” via the Miami Herald editorial board — In the November election, Republican U.S. Rep. Diaz-Balart, who has been a member of Congress since 2002, is seeking a 12th term representing District 26. He’s challenged by Democrat Joey Atkins, an attorney in Wynwood, who said he is running because he thinks the district deserves someone who works harder for them. District 26 is a challenge to represent because it is very diverse, stretching across the state from Miami-Dade County — Wynwood, Overtown, Hialeah and Doral — to Collier County, including parts of Immokalee, Everglades City and Naples. We are not endorsing either candidate. After 20 years, Díaz-Balart is an established figure in Congress. He’s part of a prominent Cuban American political family and has always made the Cuban exile community central to his political work. He served in the state Legislature, both House and Senate, before he was elected to the U.S. House in 2002.

— 2024 — DOWN-BALLOT 2 —

“Don Gaetz seeks to defeat Gulf Breeze News publisher Lisa Newell and return to Senate” via Brittany Misencik of the Pensacola News Journal — Republican, business owner and former Senate President Gaetz is taking on longtime Gulf Breeze News publisher Newell for Doug Broxson’s seat in the Senate District 1 race. Gaetz, father to U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz, is no stranger to the Florida Senate, where he served as President from 2012 to 2014. Before that, he served on the Okaloosa County School Board, as Okaloosa County School Superintendent, and then as a member of the Florida Senate. While Newell, a Democrat, may be a political newcomer, she has spent over two decades as the publisher of Gulf Breeze News and is a longtime local.

Happening today — Florida House District 106 candidate Joe Saunders will be on hand for early voting, alongside Aventura Commissioner Rachel Friedland, the Greater Aventura Democratic Club and the Miami-Dade Democratic Senior Caucus: 10 a.m., Northeast Dade-Aventura Branch Library, 2930 Aventura Boulevard, Aventura. Contact Gianna Trocino-Bonner at (352) 638-7801.

“Overlooked and underfunded, Jackie Gross-Kellogg keeps things positive in HD 113 bid” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — Gross-Kellogg wants to revive the health of Biscayne Bay. She wants to tackle property insurance issues, protect reproductive rights and invest in public schools through policies that ensure long-term economic stability. Also on her to-do list: provide outdoor workers with heat protections, raise the minimum wage, make it easier for citizens to vote in free and fair elections and pass “common-sense” gun control measures. She’s running for the seat representing House District 113 to affect those policies. But it’s been far from smooth sailing. Her opponent, Republican Miami Rep. Vicki Lopez, carries a comparatively massive war chest and has the ample power of the Florida GOP behind her.

“Andrew Warren for Hillsborough State Attorney” via the Tampa Bay Times editorial board — Some voters may be tempted to treat this race as a grudge match between a twice-elected Democratic State Attorney and the Republican Governor who removed him from office in 2022. However, the focus should be on the significant differences in how Democrat Warren and the Governor’s appointee to the post, Republican Suzy Lopez, would run the Hillsborough County State Attorney’s Office for the next four years. We see Warren as the better choice for voters in the Nov. 5 election. His outlook on fighting crime and curbing bias and turmoil in the judicial system is more in sync with a growing county and with modern times.

— STATEWIDE —

“Law firm’s study shows Halloween nearly as dangerous as traditional year-end holidays on roads” via Drew Dixon of Florida Politics — Halloween certainly is a frightful celebration, which is the point of the day. But motor vehicle accidents surrounding the tradition are really scary and recent statistics show it’s getting more dangerous on the roadways as Halloween approaches. Bader Scott, a personal injury law firm, recently completed a study on accidents on the roads on and surrounding Halloween, and the numbers are increasing. Across the U.S., there are now 163.4 fatal accidents on Halloween and usually about 153 fatal accidents each day in the eight weeks surrounding the spooky day. That’s a 6.8% increase in deadly wrecks on Halloween compared to the period surrounding the holiday. Brader Scott researchers compiled their results using data on fatal crashes obtained from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) from 2013 to 2022.

“How did Florida manatees wind up all the way in North Carolina?” via Alex DeLuca of the Miami New Times — Last week, a handful of Florida manatees were spotted hanging around the shores of North Carolina. Photos shared by local news outlets in the Outer Banks show the mammals grazing and swimming around in the Southern Shores, several hundred miles away from their native Sunshine State. In one image, a large sea cow’s signature snoot is seen breaking the surface of the shoreline. But while the manatees may seem far from home, Beth Brady, a senior science and conservation associate with the nonprofit Save the Manatee, explains that Summer migrations can take these mammals as far north as Massachusetts waters. “They’re traveling longer distances than we’ve ever thought that they would,” Brady tells New Times.

— D.C. MATTERS —

“China vows to take ‘necessary measures’ over $2 billion U.S. arms sale to Taiwan” via Al Jazeera — China has slammed the latest round of United States arms sales to Taiwan, vowing to take “all necessary measures” to assert its sovereignty over the self-ruled island it claims as its own. On Friday, the U.S. State Department approved a $2 billion arms sale package for Taiwan, including advanced surface-to-air missile systems and radar, to counter China’s growing military power in the Asia Pacific. The administration of Biden has made countering China’s increasing military and economic “assertiveness” in the region a key pillar of its foreign policy. It has also sought to shore up military alliances in the region while maintaining trade restrictions on Beijing. The deal awaits approval by Congress. The equipment will be derived from U.S. Air Force supplies.

“Congress may have created a boon for Trump in trying to Trump-proof the transition” via Alice Miranda Ollstein of POLITICO — Trump can’t legally delay the next presidential transition the same way he did in 2020. But Congress’ attempt to protect the peaceful transfer of power from Trump-style disruptions may have inadvertently created new risks in the process. Trump’s previous refusal to concede froze the ability of Biden’s transition team to gain access to federal funding and information for several weeks — a holdup that hobbled the new administration’s readiness on national security and its response to a raging COVID-19 pandemic. To prevent a repeat, Congress passed a law in 2022 allowing multiple leading presidential candidates to get transition resources before a winner is determined in a contested election. The rule change addressed one of the myriad problems that plagued the last transition.

— LOCAL: S. FL —

“A Black church ‘celebration,’ Souls to the Polls events kick off in South Florida” via Lauren Costantino of the Miami Herald — Speakers blared Beyoncé’s “Freedom.” People in political T-shirts lined up to fill their plates with Haitian food. Campaign signs that read “Ayisyen pou Harris” (“Haitians for Harris” in Creole) filled the grassy areas at the North Miami Public Library. This was the bustling scene outside an early voting site picked out for a “Souls to the Polls” rally that has become a campaign season rite of many Black and Caribbean churches across South Florida. “Being able to [vote] together with the brothers and sisters that we come to church with and that we live with and serve in the community makes it that much more exciting,” said Rev. Dr. Cheryl Coleman, a Friendship Missionary Baptist Church minister. “The Black church, that’s the one place many of us come for help and hope and really for the social ills that we face.” The events are organized by a nonpartisan network of community organizers and clergy called Faith in Florida, which occupied a purple booth away from the people pushing individual candidates.

“‘Incredibly honored’: Palm Beach business orgs back Joel Flores for County Commission” via Ryan Nicol of Florida Politics — Former Greenacres Mayor Flores, a Democrat seeking to flip a Palm Beach County Commission seat, is earning buy-in from the business community ahead of Election Day. Three major local business groups are backing Flores. Those groups are the Associated General Contractors (AGC) Florida East Coast Chapter, the Business Political Action Committee (BizPAC) of Palm Beach County and the Economic Council of Palm Beach County. “I’m incredibly honored to receive these strong endorsements from such respected organizations,” Flores said in a prepared statement. “Working together with our business community and leaders across the political spectrum, we can address critical quality-of-life issues, including housing, cost of living and economic development. I am committed to ensuring Palm Beach County is a place where everyone can afford to live, work, and raise a family.”

“Storm emergency offers reprieve from insurance deadlines, policy expirations and cancellations” via Anne Geggis of the Palm Beach Post — The day before Hurricane Milton landed twisters in Palm Beach County — damaging 315 homes in a neighborhood about 15 miles from her house — Patricia Cramer went online to pay her insurance bill and made a startling discovery. She learned that the West Palm Beach resident’s policy with Citizens Property Insurance Corp., which she had bolstered just a few months earlier, had been canceled. The cancellation went into effect Oct. 5. That was the same day that DeSantis had included Palm Beach County in an emergency declaration ahead of the oncoming storm. “I was on pins and needles,” said Cramer, 79.

“Miami-Dade teachers vote to keep their union. This right-wing group vows to bust it” via Clara Sophia Daly of the Miami Herald — The United Teachers of Dade won their recertification vote, allowing the union to continue as the collective bargaining representative for Miami-Dade teachers. This comes despite attempts by a recent law to destabilize the union and substantial amounts of money being funneled into an alternative group attempting to supplant the union. “This victory is a testament to what we educators can accomplish when we stand united,” said Karla Hernandez-Mats, president of the United Teachers of Dade. The United Teachers of Dade won with 83% of the vote. The Miami-Dade Education Coalition, a group funded by the right-wing Freedom Foundation that campaigned as an alternative to the union, received 14% of the votes. Three percent of teachers voted in favor of no union.

“Why Florida’s new safety inspection law is creating havoc for condo owners” via Mike Diamond of the Palm Beach Post — Gustavo Alvarez, a licensed engineer, knew he might find problems at the Villa Del Sol condominium complex in St. Lucie County when he entered crawlspaces of several buildings on the morning of Aug. 8 for a safety inspection. Conditions were so bad in three of the six buildings that he made a 911-type call to the county fire marshal for an immediate evacuation. He managed to find a rental unit in one of the Villa del Sol buildings that was found to be safe. But he is now carrying two properties, paying a mortgage and condo fees on the one he had to leave and rent on the unit where he is now living.

— LOCAL: C. FL —

“Anthony Sabatini faces legal challenge over Lake County Commission win” via Steven Walker of the Orlando Sentinel — Conservative firebrand Sabatini won a seat on the Lake County Board of County Commissioners in August but now faces a legal challenge from the Commissioner he defeated his win nullified. A judge heard arguments in the case Friday afternoon and is expected to rule before Election Day. Sabatini defeated incumbent Douglas Shields in the GOP Primary and is set to take his Commission seat in November with no other candidates in the race. But in July, Shields filed a lawsuit against Sabatini, arguing that because of a campaign finance error in paying his qualifying fee, Sabatini should be disqualified from the election. Florida law states a candidate must pay a “qualifying fee” and make the payments through a campaign account. In his lawsuit, Shields argued Sabatini paid the fee from an account not designated as a campaign account.

“With millions at stake, Orlando cultural groups have their eye on Tuesday” via Matthew J. Palm of the Orlando Sentinel — Orange County’s Board of County Commissioners will vote on millions in cultural spending that will help transform multiple communities, from new event space in ball fields in Apopka to new museums in Winter Park and Winter Garden. The money comes from the Tourist Development Tax, a 6% levy collected on certain overnight stays in Orange County. A lot of money is at stake: $75 million over five years. Eleven projects have been reviewed and scored by an advisory panel and the Tourist Development Council, which recommends funding amounts to Commissioners. This year, the eight projects with the top scores were recommended for total funding; the three remaining projects would split the remaining funds. State law requires funds collected from the Tourist Development Tax to be spent on tourism-related facilities, operations and promotion. Commissioners will vote on accepting or modifying the Council’s recommendations during their regular meeting, which begins at 9 a.m. Oct. 29 at the County Administrative Center.

— LOCAL: TB —

“No water, then no power. How one St. Petersburg hospital survived Milton.” via Christopher O’Donnell of the Tampa Bay Times — St. Anthony’s Hospital looked well set to ride out Hurricane Milton. The downtown St. Petersburg hospital had its own generators and backup systems. It had 24,000 bottles of water and extra medical supplies on hand. Its location 52 feet above sea level offered protection from storm surges. Just over 361 patients, including five evacuated from other hospitals, and 800 workers were in the 448-bed facility the night of landfall. The late-shift crew of doctors, nurses, and other essential workers arrived five hours before their 7 p.m. start to ensure that road and bridge closures didn’t prevent them from getting to work. The day-shift crew they relieved would spend the night on cots in classrooms and other sleeping areas and be back on duty by 6 a.m.

“Deputies arrest dozens in looting, unlicensed contracting operations on Pinellas barrier islands” via Jack Prator of the Tampa Bay Times — Pinellas deputies have arrested scores of suspects this month in a crackdown on looting and unlicensed contracting in Pinellas beach towns after hurricanes Helene and Milton displaced many residents. In a news conference in Madeira Beach Thursday afternoon, Pinellas County Sheriff Bob Gualtieri said the severe damage wrought by the hurricanes has drawn an unprecedented number of bad actors to the beaches. “We’ve never seen anything of this magnitude before; we’ve never seen this influx of people from out of the area that are clearly just here to steal and to pilfer and to do bad things and to target these vulnerable people,” he said. Between Oct. 2 and Thursday, deputies conducting looting patrols on the barrier islands had arrested 45 people on charges including armed robbery, burglary, loitering and prowling, grand theft, vandalism and trespassing. Gualtieri said two suspects were Pinellas County residents and 41 were not U.S. citizens.

“Pinellas County faces a ‘monumental’ rebuilding process” via Mark Parker of St. Pete Catalyst — Nearly 41,000 Pinellas County homes sustained storm damage from Hurricanes Helene and Milton. Those residents should wait for a heavily regulated inspection process to be concluded before conducting repairs. Pinellas County officials and representatives from a disaster consultancy firm met Thursday to discuss how federal requirements would dictate – and prolong – extensive recovery efforts. A month has already passed since Helene’s storm surge inundated the area. Commissioner Brian Scott stated that the county’s priority is addressing the “immediate needs of residents facing unimaginable hardships.” He noted that officials must also focus on substantial long-term rebuilding challenges, “which will not only require physical resources, but emotional resilience and a lot of patience.”

“Inside the evolution of Rays stadium solutions” via Mark Parker of St. Pete Catalyst — Documents show that building officials met with at least one specialized construction firm a day after Milton made landfall. In a Friday, Oct. 11 email sent after visiting the site, Javier Rattia, partner director for Dunn Lightweight, noted that his firm was under a “very tight schedule” to dismantle and replace Tropicana Field’s roof in time for the 2025 season. “We will airfreight some of the materials and use most of our stock to achieve this monumental task,” Rattia wrote. “We understand there are some internal processes that need to happen first, but due to the emergency, we can mobilize the dismantling phase this coming Monday (10/14).” Dunn’s proposal changed the following day. An Oct. 12 agreement was limited to dismantling and removing the “PVC fabric roof material for disposal by the city” at a cost not to exceed $548,534.

“Accusations against Van Ayres roil Hillsborough school tax referendum campaign” via William March of Florida Politics — State officials are investigating a trip to the Masters golf tournament taken by Hillsborough County School Superintendent Ayres with the head of a construction firm that later got a no-bid contract with the district, according to Hillsborough County Commissioner Josh Wostal. Reports about the trip have been stirring up conservative political circles in the county. However, some School Board members say the talk is only part of an attempt by conservatives to undercut the referendum campaign for a tax increase to fund teacher salaries. Republican County Commissioner Ken Hagan and Ayres went to the Masters in April with Jonathan Graham, head of HORUS Construction Services. There are indications that Deputy School Superintendent Chris Farkas was also on the trip.

— LOCAL: N. FL —

“Tallahassee undaunted by law banning public sleeping, continues busing out homeless” via Elena Barrera of the Tallahassee Democrat — It’s been almost a month since the new state law banning sleeping in public places went into effect, but the capital city and county leaders say it hasn’t changed their approach to homelessness. All community partners will continue operating under their current game plans — including busing people out of Tallahassee looking for a fresh start. Under the new Florida law, local municipalities are prohibited from allowing people to camp or sleep on public property. They are required to designate a specific public space for camping and sleeping. The Florida Department of Children and Families needs to approve these areas, including security, behavioral health services and bathrooms with running water. Starting Jan. 1, residents and businesses can sue local governments if they fail to comply. Both the City of Tallahassee and Leon County say their ordinances, procedures and services already align with state law.

Happening today — FPU Renewables LLC is hosting a ribbon-cutting ceremony celebrating the launch of its first Florida-based renewable natural gas (RNG) facility at Full Circle Dairy. Participants will include Sen. Corey Simon, Reps. Jason Shoaf and Allison Tant, Madison County Commissioner Brian Williams, Chesapeake Utilities Corporation President and CEO Jeff Householder, Chesapeake Utilities Corporation Director and General Manager Justin Stankiewicz: 2:30 p.m., Full Circle Dairy, 1479 SE Winquepin Street, Lee. RSVP with [email protected].

— LOCAL: SW FL —

“Sarasota County has already seen 30% turnout for Nov. 5 after five days of early voting” via Christian Casale of the Sarasota Herald-Tribune — With less than two weeks before the Nov. 5 General Election, early voting has outpaced turnout four years ago. Sarasota County Elections Supervisor Ron Turner told the Herald-Tribune on Friday that more than 40,000 people had cast their in-person ballots during the first week of early voting. “That’s a great start and I hope that means that voters have heard my message not to wait until the last minute to vote. We are expecting high voter turnout for the Nov. 5 General Election, and I urge all voters to make a plan and vote,” Turner said. Sarasota County Elections Supervisor spokesperson Paul Donnelly said early voting sites such as the Robert L. Anderson Administrative Center in Venice and the Fruitville Library in Sarasota have seen notable wait times. The Supervisor of Elections office runs a daily wait time estimator for each early polling location.

— TOP OPINION —

“How bad do you want it, ladies?” via Maureen Dowd of The New York Times — It is the ultimate battle of the sexes in the most visceral of elections. Who will prevail? The women, especially young women, who are appalled at the cartoonish macho posturing and benighted stances of Trump and his entourage? Or the men, including many young men, union men, Latino and Black men, who are drawn to Trump’s swaggering, bullying and insulting, seeing him as the reeling-backward antidote to shrinking male primacy.

Drilling into the primal yearnings of men and women — their priorities, identities, anger and frustration — makes this election even more fraught. When I wrote a book about gender in 2005, I assumed that a couple of decades later, we’d all be living peacefully on the same planet. But no Cassandra, I. The sexual revolution intensified our muddle, leaving women in a tangle of dependence and independence in the 21st century. The more we imitated men, the more we realized how different we were.

Other countries overcame this stereotypical thinking about women leaders, but there is still a thick strain of it in America.

It is sad that women had to be stripped of their basic right to control their bodies — and to be threatened with the loss of lifesaving medical care — for Kamala even to have a chance to get the votes of enough women to offset losing the votes of so many men.

Trump is running a hypermasculine campaign — with Chief Bro Musk bizarrely bouncing up and down — that is breathtakingly offensive to women. Trump is exploiting the crisis among Gen Z men, a crisis driven by loneliness, COVID isolation, economic insecurity, a lack of purpose and a feeling that the modern world seems more accommodating to young women.

— OPINIONS —

“The free world teeters on the edge of a knife” via Noah Smith of Noahpinion — I am an optimist by nature and not an expert on geopolitics. And yet the trends are so obviously dire, and so few people seem to recognize the danger, that I feel like I have to keep sounding the alarm and hoping that someone out there is listening. What’s even scarier is that in just a little over two weeks, Trump might be elected President of the U.S. Although it’s not possible to know for certain what the consequences of a second Trump presidency would be, it’s very possible that it would result in the U.S. essentially surrendering its European allies to Russia and its Asian allies to China — thus dramatically weakening America’s own ability to resist those enemies in the future. The free world is teetering on the edge of a knife. Trump is simply an agent of chaos whose primary goal is to destroy any American institution that opposes him.

“It has fallen to me, the humor columnist, to endorse Harris for President” via Alexandra Petri of The Washington Post — The Washington Post is not bothering to endorse a candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election. We, as a newspaper, suddenly remembered, less than two weeks before the election, that we had a robust tradition 50 years ago of not telling anyone what to do with their vote for President. It is time we got back to those “roots,” I’m told! As recently as the 1970s, The Post did not endorse a presidential candidate. As recently as centuries ago, there was no Post and the country had a king! I will spare you the suspense: I am endorsing Kamala Harris for President because I like elections and want to keep having them.

“Republican irrational exuberance?” via Byron York of the Washington Examiner — Pollsters know they did a poor job in 2016. They tried to fix things in 2020 and failed. Now, they have tried new methods to make their 2024 polls more accurate. The question is whether they have succeeded this time. If they have, the race is really tied. If they haven’t, you can add some points to Trump’s total. Yes, the polls have shown real movement toward Trump in the last few weeks. Yes, there are certain factors favoring Trump. But the polls are not frozen at this moment. There are still 10 days left in the campaign for people to vote. The polls could shift a bit. They could move back toward Harris. And we know Democrats, whatever they think of Harris, hate Trump with a passion, which will motivate them to vote. Plus, if the pollsters have fixed some of their Trump undercount problems, the final result could be very, very close — certainly not a good reason for Republicans to be highly confident today.

“Why we’re changing our choice in Florida House District 113” via the Miami Herald editorial board — The Herald Editorial Board previously endorsed Republican state Rep. Vicki Lopez for re-election in Florida House District 113 in November because she has been an effective and independent lawmaker. Following a story published Thursday detailing how Lopez helped push a bill that benefited her family financially, we must rescind that support. In 2011, Lopez worked with the Miami-based nonprofit Girls Advocacy Project when the Department of Juvenile Justice’s inspector general issued a report saying she spent money meant for girls in the juvenile system on personal expenses and falsified records. Then-Gov. Scott’s chief inspector general decided not to investigate further and said the initial investigation drew conclusions without sufficient evidence, the Herald reported in 2012. Lopez said she didn’t misuse any charity dollars, and the investigation was motivated by a personal vendetta. Our job is to advise voters, and the accumulation of these issues is not a good look.

— INSTAGRAM OF THE DAY —

— ALOE —

“New list ranks Halloween candies with the most sugar. Where does your favorite spooky season treat land?” via Drew Dixon of Florida Politics — Halloween can often be one of the year’s most fun traditions and is even considered the unofficial start of the holiday season. But all that Halloween candy packs an unhealthy punch if too much is eaten. To help those who celebrate Halloween, QR Code Generator, a company that helps provide QR Codes for product identification, conducted a study to list the most sugary Halloween candies. The group ranked 100 American Halloween candies for their sugar content and impact on health. The top 10 candies with the most sugar include many familiar brand names. Unsurprisingly, Pixy Stix tops the list. The popular powdered confection in an enclosed straw is nearly all sugar. According to the analysis, Pixy Stix has 95 grams of sugar in a 100-gram package.

“‘Beetlejuice’ most popular Halloween film among Floridians, new study shows” via Drew Dixon of Florida Politics — One of the more fun elements of the Halloween season is watching some of the scariest films ever made. And when it comes to Floridians, they have their favorites. However, the original “Beetlejuice” appears to be the favorite Halloween film among residents in the Sunshine State. The study looked at the number of Google searches for different Halloween movies and found that the most searches in Florida were for Beetlejuice, the 1988 classic starring Michael Keaton and Winona Ryder. “Beetlejuice” was Googled on average some 111,138 times by Floridians each month. “The film is Googled more than twice as much on average as any other Halloween movie in the state.”

— HAPPY BIRTHDAY —

Celebrating today are David Childs, Jim Daughton of Metz Husband Daughton, Jonathan Foerster, the legendary Bill Pfeiffer, and Tiffany Vause.

___

Sunburn is authored and assembled by Peter Schorsch, Phil Ammann, Daniel Dean, Ryan Nicol, Jacob Ogles, and Drew Wilson.