The race between Anna Paulina Luna and Whitney Fox is closer than most expected, apparently even to the GOP

A poll came out last week showing Republican U.S. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna locked in a dead heat against Democratic challenger Whitney Fox in Florida’s 13th Congressional District.

Before that, a poll from the same outfit, St. Pete Polls, found Fox actually leading Luna by 4 percentage points. While that poll came as a shock, and has been an outlier, there is no denying that things are closer than most would have predicted in an R+6 district.

Don’t believe polls? How about fundraising? 

Fox has been consistently outraising Luna in each fundraising period this year, and by the end of the third quarter of 2024 had come to within about $5,000 of the incumbent in cash on hand, with Luna entering the fourth quarter with $812,000 compared to $807,000 in the bank for Fox.

Institutional support is there, too.

Democrats have bought into Fox’s candidacy almost entirely. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has placed Fox in its “Red to Blue” program, which aims to support candidates running to unseat incumbent Republicans in races the party sees as winnable. Fox is the only Democrat in Florida to make the program, and is one of only 33 candidates nationwide named to it.

There is evidence to suggest that at least some in the GOP are taking the pressure seriously.

The Win It Back PAC, which is affiliated with the conservative Club for Growth, over the weekend dropped nearly $150,000 on television and digital advertising attacking Fox. The group is actively supporting Luna, including raising funds for her.

They have two polls showing Luna with a sizable lead over Fox, with the most recent matching Cook Political Report’s analysis of the race putting it at R+6, at 51% to 45%. A previous Club for Growth poll taken in August found Luna with a 5-point lead.

To be clear, it is not uncommon for partisan organizations to drop cash on races even if there’s a clear front-runner. Campaign conventional wisdom holds that every candidate should run as if they are behind no matter what the polls or fundraising say. That remains true.

But a look at other expenditures around the same time as the Win It Back spending in Luna’s race offers reason to believe Club for Growth may be a little more worried than polls would otherwise suggest.

The bulk of the weekend spending — more than $146,000 — went toward a television ad placement attacking Fox. Another couple thousand went toward digital ads, also attacking Fox. Before that, the PAC dropped more than $156,000 on television ads and more than $4,000 on digital ads attacking Fox. All of that came after the latest survey showing Luna and Fox tied, though it’s possible, and even likely, the ads were planned before the poll came out.

Indeed, the group spent another more than $150,000 on TV ads opposing Fox in early October, well before the most recent poll.

But Fox is also one of only about a dozen candidates appearing in the top 60 expenditures listed by the Federal Election Commission for Win It Back.

Meanwhile, Win It Back spent less than $2,000 over the weekend attacking Dave Min, the Democrat running against Republican Scott Baugh for the California seat being vacated by Democratic U.S. Rep. Katie Porter. That’s considered a swing district. There, a recent poll puts Baugh a little less than 4 percentage points ahead of Min. The race is a pickup opportunity for the GOP, unlike Luna’s race, which the GOP is defending.

The spending against Fox is by no means Win It Back’s heaviest spend. The group dropped at least $4.6 million this month on television advertising opposing Colin Allred in Texas, where he is challenging incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz. Last month, they spent more than $3.2 million opposing Allred.

Another top target is Ruben Gallego, who is running against Kari Lake for U.S. Senate in Arizona. Win It Back dropped nearly $2.3 million last week opposing Gallego.

Jacky Rosen, the U.S. Senator from Nevada, is another top target as Republicans look to flip her seat. Win It Back spent more than $5.7 million on television advertising attacking her from August through early October. And those are just the big buys.

So while spending against Fox is a drop in the bucket compared to some competitive Senate races across the nation, it’s still significant and a sign that Republicans are at least a little worried about Luna’s chances.

“What that tells me is that Whitney Fox is going to win on Tuesday night,” Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried told Florida Politics reporter Jacob Ogles this week. “Whitney Fox has been a stellar candidate, showing the people of her community exactly what they should expect in a member of Congress after not one, after two hurricanes, she was out there fighting for her constituents before they were even her constituents.”

Still, a Fox victory would no doubt be considered an upset, and no one is suggesting these spending patterns mean Luna will go down.

But it punctuates just how volatile this election cycle has been. Republicans, particularly those who have openly embraced the more extreme views of the Republican Party under former President Donald Trump — as Luna has — are finding themselves faced with close races even in districts that otherwise might not be competitive.

Luna, for example, won her district just two years ago by about 8 percentage points. There were similarities. Like Fox, Luna’s opponent two years ago, Eric Lynn, was a centrist Democrat and proved to be a strong fundraiser, raising more than $2 million at this point in his race that cycle, with nearly $600,000 left on hand, more than Luna had at that point.

And the district, since 2022, has only gotten redder. Then, Republicans controlled a little more than 37% of the electorate, compared to nearly 32% for Democrats and more than 29% for independents. Now, Republicans account for nearly 39% of the electorate, with less than 30% Democrats and nearly 29% independents, according to L2 voter data.

Voters in Texas are seeing similar trends in Allred’s race against Cruz, where a Democrat appears to be overperforming in a red state because some view Cruz as less than savory.

No one has a crystal ball to say whether being labeled an extremist is enough to topple Trump-aligned Republicans this cycle, and even if it happens in one race, it’s not likely to happen in all of them.

But the spending shows that Democrats in districts that once might not have been considered winnable are playing ball, and the GOP is taking the threat seriously.