Peter Schorsch
Good Tuesday morning.
I want to start the day with a birthday shoutout to one of the best people in The Process, David Johnson. Tweet a birthday wish to him @DJGroup!
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Voters are welcomed today to their last chance to vote in this year’s consequential election.
Whoever emerges victorious at the top of the ticket will make history — Kamala Harris as the nation’s first woman President (and first of Asian descent) or Donald Trump, the oldest and first convicted felon. While the Presidential Election outcome will be a nail-biter overall, all expectations are that Trump will prevail in Florida.
And beyond the marquee presidential race, there are races up and down the ballot to watch as polls close this evening, including the U.S. Senate race pitting incumbent Republican Sen. Rick Scott against Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. However, polls also show Scott with a reasonably comfortable margin. Voters in much of Pinellas County will also decide whether to send incumbent U.S. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna back to Washington for another term or give Democratic challenger Whitney Fox a shot.
And in South Florida, any number of races on the ballot will help us understand whether the trend toward the right is ongoing.
Perhaps most importantly, when the polls close this evening, it will be a chance to recharge from the constant political drama.
A survey from the University of South Florida’s Center for Sustainable Democracy found Americans engaged in this year’s election and concerned about the future of democracy in the U.S.
Four out of five respondents indicated they were very or somewhat interested in this year’s contests, an interest that was essentially the same regardless of political affiliation.
Meanwhile, voters may feel stress. A majority of respondents indicated they are dissatisfied with democracy. Republicans largely drove that majority. Adding to the stress, the poll found that partisan voters have strong negative opinions of those with opposing views, with about 60% saying they worry the opposing party is trying to hurt America.
While that might not shock our astute readers, it reminds us that we’re all ready for a little breathing room.
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Trump 2024 is bullish heading into Election Day.
In a memo, the campaign’s Chief Data Consultant, Tim Saler, said early-voting numbers signal victory — potentially a landslide — for Trump.
“In every single battleground state, we see President Trump and Republicans outperforming elections past in absentee ballots and early votes cast. As we dive deeper into the data, Democrats are facing a precipitous decline in urban turnout according to their own ‘data experts,’ and we are tracking an uptick in rural turnout,” the memo reads.
Saler also signaled a boost in anxiety from former Obama campaign manager-turned-pundit Jim Messina, who said on MSNBC that “the early vote numbers are a little scary.”
The memo asserts that the “scary” part for Harris and Democrats is that most polls show Trump is leading by a substantial margin among voters who plan to cast their ballots Tuesday. If that holds, Democrats need to build a larger cushion.
The Trump campaign is seeing other potentially positive trends (for them) in the tea leaves. Namely, turnout among women and urban voters is down across all seven swing states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — and in four states, the rural vote is outpacing 2020.
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The Republican Party of Florida is feeling optimistic heading into Election Day, with a memo highlighting a broad set of voting data that suggests good news for the party across the state.
The Florida GOP continues to be encouraged by early voting that has overwhelmingly favored Republican voters. A memo to GOP operatives and staff outlines an R+20 advantage in early vote totals, with more than 1 million more Republicans casting a ballot in-person than Democrats.
Democrats maintained an edge in vote-by-mail returns, with about 193,000 more ballots returned than GOP voters. But overall, the GOP holds a 10-percentage-point advantage in voting as of Monday, with about 845,000 more ballots cast than Democrats.
To put the numbers in perspective, the party compared turnout totals so far to the same point in 2020, when Trump won the Sunshine State by about 3 percentage points.
Turnout this year is up 7 percentage points each in early, in-person voting and vote-by-mail, with an overall turnout swing from four years ago of 11 percentage points.
Republicans have kept pace with overall early voting compared to the 2020 Election, even gaining slightly with more than 3.5 million ballots cast so far from Republican voters, compared to barely 3.4 million four years ago.
The story may not get better for Democrats on Election Day. The GOP data analysis found that nearly 800,000 Republican voters categorized as likely or very likely to vote have yet to cast their ballots.
Democrats, meanwhile, have less than 600,000 voters remaining who are likely or very likely to vote.
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Florida Atlantic University’s final poll ahead of the election found pretty much the same thing as every other survey — it will be a close one.
Harris remains the more popular pick than Trump nationwide, although narrowly.
But “popular vote winner” fits snugly between “Academy Award nominee” and “regular season champion” on the bookshelf of accomplishments that don’t matter. Once again, the next leader of the free world will be decided by a handful of voters in a handful of states … the only twist is that Florida isn’t one of them.
Regarding the swing states, Harris is “leading but vulnerable” in pivotal Pennsylvania, where the current temperatures mirror national polling at 49%-47%, with 2% undecided and 1% torching their vote on an also-ran. Also, Pennsylvania women are trending for Harris following national polls, while men are going for Trump.
“Pennsylvania’s gender and education divides are significant, reflecting the challenges candidates have faced in building broad coalitions,” said Luzmarina Garcia, Ph.D., assistant professor of political science at FAU.
Meanwhile, the margin in Michigan is 2 points, which is an advantage for Harris. The VP also holds a statistically insignificant 49%-48% lead in Wisconsin.
The race is close enough in all three states that FAU prepped stats on split-ticket voters. Michiganders are most likely to Christmas tree their ballot, with 20% confessing outright. The split-ticket cohort accounts for 15% in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
The survey was conducted Oct. 25-Nov. 2, with 798 respondents in Wisconsin, 733 in Michigan and 798 in Pennsylvania. The margin of error is estimated at +/- 3.5% for Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and +/- 3.6% for Michigan.
— SITUATIONAL AWARENESS —
—@Yamiche: A senior Harris campaign official notes that Harris’ East Lansing, Michigan rally today was the first rally since Harris became the Democratic presidential candidate where she did not mention Trump by name. The strategy is “Closing fully positive,” the official said.
—@nanditab1: BREAKING: Harris campaign official says they expect near-complete results from Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan by the end of Election Night. On Wednesday and beyond, they expect additional results from Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada. “We may not know the results of this election for several days, but we are very focused on staying calm and confident throughout this period as the process goes through,” said campaign Chair Jen O’Malley Dillon.
—@DanPFeiffer: This is purely anecdotal, but I have talked to so many people who voted by mail in previous elections but are waiting to take their daughters to vote in-person for Kamala Harris on Election Day.
—@GTConway3: I’m confident that the women of this great nation will protect all of us.
—@RealAlexLains: What are we wearing tomorrow? Sorry, it’s my first Civil War.
—@RobbySlowick: Me texting Kamala back on Wednesday: “OMG sorry JUST saw these. Do you still need 30 dollars?”
—@JosephBHarding: I legally can’t vote tomorrow because I am a felon. Go vote, if you can!! Trust me, they will take your right to vote away, too, given the chance. @realDonaldTrump is the only one that can get rid of the corruption that is rampant in the DOJ and the BOP.
—@Fineout: Fla @GovRonDeSantis is scheduled to give a lecture at Notre Dame on Friday p.m. He is also doing a seminar where students will get to ask questions. Lecture billed as a chance to hear from “leading Catholic politicians.” FSU plays Notre Dame on Saturday. FSU is a 26 pt underdog
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— DAYS UNTIL —
Second half of Yellowstone season five premieres – 1; USF stadium groundbreaking — 4; Taylor Sheridan’s ‘Landman’ premieres – 10; ‘Dune: Prophecy’ premieres on HBO — 12; News Service of Florida’s Above & Beyond Awards, honoring women in government and public service — 14; Legislature’s 2025 Organizational Session – 16; Las Vegas Grand Prix – 16; ‘Wicked’ premieres — 17; ‘Moana 2’ premieres – 22; ‘Chef’s Table’ returns to Netflix — 22; 2024 Florida Chamber Annual Insurance Summit begins – 28; Florida Chamber 2024 Florida Transportation, Growth & Infrastructure Solution Summit — 28; MLS Cup 2024 – 32; Army-Navy game — 39; ‘Mufasa: The Lion King’ premieres – 45; College Football Playoff begins – 47; ‘Squid Game’ season two premieres – 51; Fiesta, Peach, Rose & Sugar Bowls – 57; Orange Bowl – 65; ‘Severance’ season two debuts – 80; Super Bowl LIX — 96; ‘Captain America: Brave New World’ premieres – 108; the 2025 Oscars – 117; Florida’s 2025 Legislative Session begins – 119; Tampa Bay Rays season opener — 142; 2025 Session ends – 178; ‘Thunderbolts’ premieres – 178; Epic Universe grand opening — 198; ‘Karate Kid: Legends’ premieres — 206; ‘Fantastic Four – First Steps’ premieres – 262; ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ premieres – 409; ‘Avengers 5’ premieres – 546; Untitled ‘Star Wars’ movie premieres – 563; FIFA World Cup 26™ final – 584; FIFA World Cup 26™ final match – 622; ‘The Batman 2’ premieres – 701; Another untitled ‘Star Wars’ movie premieres – 774; ‘Avengers: Secret Wars’ premieres – 914; 2028 Los Angeles Olympics Opening Ceremony — 1,347; ‘Avatar 4’ premieres – 1,873; ‘Avatar 5’ premieres – 2,594.
— TOP STORY —
“Black voters in Florida lagging in election in early, mail voting” via Fresh Take Florida — Statewide, 48% of 1.78 million voters who identified as Black submitted mail ballots or visited polling places for early voting, compared to 61% of 8.51 million active White voters, according to a new analysis of government turnout data through the end of early voting Sunday.
Among Black men, turnout was lower at 44%, 7 percentage points lower than Black women.
The 48% compares to 60% of Black voters who voted by mail or voted early at this point in 2020. Voting by mail among Black voters was down 50% since the last Presidential Election.
The new figures include voting from Sunday when churches in many counties across Florida conducted Souls to the Polls events to encourage civic participation.
None of Florida’s 67 counties had Black voters casting early or mail ballots at the same rate as White voters. In Sumter County, White voters turned out over Black voters by more than 30 percentage points. In nearby rural Hardee County, only about 1 in 4 Black voters had cast a ballot — compared to 48% of White voters.
In Gadsden County, Florida’s only county with a majority Black population, turnout among Black voters was more than 13 points behind White voters.
In large urban areas, too, Black voter turnout also was low:
— In Miami-Dade and Broward counties, Black turnout lagged behind White voters by 13 points and 8 points.
— In Hillsborough and Pinellas counties, Black turnout lagged behind White voters by 12 points and 16 points.
— In Orange and Osceola counties, Black turnout lagged behind White voters by 11 points and 10 points.
— In Duval and St. Johns counties, Black turnout lagged behind White voters by 12 points and 11 points.
— 2024 — PRESIDENTIAL —
“Kamala Harris campaign: We can beat Donald Trump without Pennsylvania” via Mary Ann Akers of The Daily Beast — Top Democratic campaign officials said Monday that Harris has “multiple pathways” to win the presidency. “We don’t have to pick and choose; we just have a lot of options,” Harris campaign Chair O’Malley Dillon told reporters during a video call. O’Malley Dillon said while “we feel good about Pennsylvania,” a Harris victory doesn’t necessarily depend on winning the Keystone State. Nevertheless, the Vice President is spending the entire day ahead of Election Day in the crucial battle state, where 75% of the state’s voters will vote on Tuesday in person. She said the campaign sees signs of optimism in the other two “blue wall” states of Wisconsin and Michigan. She also said that Democrats are equally optimistic about winning the Sun Belt swing states. “We like what we’re seeing in Georgia,” O’Malley Dillon said, adding that Harris is “on pace to win a very close race” in the Peach State. “We truly believe we have multiple pathways to 270 electoral votes,” she said.
“End of the Trump show as final days’ rallies fail to fill up” via Lily Mae Lazarus of The Daily Beast — As Trump makes his last pitch to voters on the eve of Election Day, the GOP presidential nominee’s supporters are failing to show up en masse at his campaign events. Trump, who has spent months boasting about his crowd sizes and MAGA enthusiasm, struggled to pack the seats of his final rallies despite claiming otherwise. Trump’s multi-stop trip to North Carolina began with rows of empty seats at his rally at the Dorton Arena in Raleigh. The day prior, video shows supporters leaving a Kinston, North Carolina, event five minutes into the Republican presidential candidate’s speech (to which he was two hours late). On Saturday, the Trump campaign resorted to curtaining off the upper bowl of an arena in Greensboro, North Carolina (a venue that Harris was able to fill) and left seats in the lower bowl vacant. Trump told his Greensboro crowd, “We have had the biggest rallies in the history of any country and every rally is full. You do not have any seats that are empty. You did not have anything.” But, immediately after his comment, a camera operator for NTD.com panned the stadium, zooming in on empty sections and supporters leaving early.
“Trump expected to vote Tuesday at Mandel Recreation Center in Palm Beach” via Kristina Webb of the Palm Beach Daily News — Trump is expected to vote Tuesday in Palm Beach, casting a ballot for himself as the Republican nominee for the White House. In anticipation of his return to Palm Beach after a busy late-campaign schedule that included stops in Wisconsin and North Carolina, Palm Beach said in an alert that the road next to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Club was closed on Monday. Trump is expected to come home ahead of Election Day when The Associated Press reported he will vote at his home precinct, No. 5604, for which the voting site is the Morton and Barbara Mandel Recreation Center at 340 Seaview Avenue
“Lincoln Project ad mocks ‘undisciplined baby’ Trump, hypes up staff disloyalty” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — A new Lincoln Project ad circulating on the eve of Election Day is highlighting unrest within Trump’s presidential campaign, calling him an “undisciplined baby” and predicting he’s bound for an embarrassing loss Tuesday. The 49-second spot, titled “Humiliated,” cited recently in the past week on how Trump considered firing his co-Campaign Manager, Chris LaCivita, after it was revealed he earned $22 million from his work. Sources said that Trump felt the story “made him look like a fool” and exacerbated Trump’s worries about disloyalty among those closest to him. The ad also referenced an email co-Manager Susie Wiles sent to staff Friday asserting that despite the team’s typically confident tenor, real doubts persist about whether he’ll be able to win. The campaign is preparing for a potential loss.
To watch the ad, please click on the image below:
“Trump is betting big on Elon Musk’s swing-state moon shot” via Theodore Schleifer, Mattathias Schwartz and Susanne Craig of The New York Times — Musk has turned his account on X, his social media platform, into a pro-Trump megaphone and joined the former President for raucous rallies. Perhaps most important, though, is the $130-million-and-counting effort led by his super PAC, America PAC, to deliver early voters in battleground states, an operation that rejects much of the conventional wisdom about how to win the White House. It is unusual for a candidate from a major political party to lean so heavily on a field operation funded and controlled by an outside organization. If Musk is seen as successful, he could usher in a new era when billionaires, who have no legal limit on their spending, dominate ground operations.
“Trump wants the presidential winner to be declared on Election Night. Why that’s unlikely” via Nicholas Riccardi of The Associated Press — Trump is stepping up his demands that the winner of the presidential race be declared shortly after polls close Tuesday, well before all the votes are counted. Trump set the pattern in 2020 when he declared that he had won during the early morning hours after Election Day. That led his allies to demand that officials “stop the count!” He and many other conservatives have spent the past four years falsely claiming that fraud cost him that election and bemoaning how long it takes to count ballots in the U.S. But one of many reasons we are unlikely to know the winner quickly on Election Night is that Republican lawmakers in two key swing states have refused to change laws that delay the count. Another is that most indications are this will be a very close election, and it takes longer to determine who won close elections than blowouts.
“Trump ups rhetoric on ‘illegal’ immigration. Is mass deportation in U.S. best interest?” via Antonio Fins of the Palm Beach Post — Trump is closing out his “final” run for the White House much like he began his first presidential campaign — with a vitriolic blast against immigrants entering the United States via the southern border. On Nov. 4, Trump again called for closing the border in a speech in Raleigh, North Carolina, and repeated his assertions that “murderers” and “terrorists” comprise the bulk of “people that just walk into our country” across the border. “I will stop the invasion of criminals coming into our country, which I happen to think is the absolute worst thing that has ever happened to our country,” he said.
“Harris has 4-point lead over Trump in final PBS News/NPR/Marist election poll” via Matt Loffman of PBS — On the eve of the 2024 Presidential Election, Harris holds a 4-point lead over Trump among likely voters nationally, according to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll. Harris has the support of 51% of likely voters to Trump’s 47%. A little more than half of independents support the Republican nominee, a 5-point lead over Harris. “It has been and remains a close election,” said Lee Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. “As far as the popular vote is concerned, it’s hers to lose.” Unlike any other election year in modern American history, dramatic events have shaped the 2024 campaign.
“‘The fear is gone’: Democrats think they can make inroads in rural Pennsylvania” via Allan Smith of NBC News — Mercer County has been solid Trump country for the past two elections. Trump won this area in rural northwest Pennsylvania by 25 percentage points in 2016 and 26 points in 2020. Yet Democrats here think they’ve got what it takes to trim those margins and play a significant role in keeping Pennsylvania blue. Many activists and volunteers noted how they’ve had more on-the-ground support this time around. On the one hand, they believe they’ve made inroads with voters who are now quietly backing Harris or with soft Republicans who have reached their endpoint with Trump. On the other, they’ve never had so much luck in the Trump era in getting their neighbors to put up yard signs for a Democratic presidential nominee as they have this Fall.
“North Carolina sees turnout record with more than 4.2M ballots cast at early in-person voting sites” via The Associated Press — North Carolina had already surpassed its early-voting record set in 2020. Still, the State Board of Elections announced Sunday that more than 4.2 million voters cast ballots at early in-person voting sites, with turnout in western counties hit by Hurricane Helene outpacing the rest of the state. Early in-person voting ended Saturday and has become increasingly popular in the presidential battleground state over several election cycles. People can simultaneously register to vote and cast ballots at early-voting sites. Four years ago, a record 3.63 million people voted at hundreds of sites in all 100 counties during the early-voting period. The Board said the state exceeded that total this year by Thursday, days before the period ended.
“The biggest question in North Carolina: Can Democrats win?” via Eduardo Medina and Maya King of The New York Times — In the western mountains, wealthy coastal towns, and urban and rural areas in between, North Carolina voters agree on this: It has been an exhausting and unsettling final stretch of the election in their state. They are ready for a result after a devastating hurricane and a jolting political scandal. Over the presidential campaign’s final days, the biggest question hanging over the state is whether Democrats, who have won North Carolina’s electoral votes only twice in the past half-century, will again come up short. Harris has forced Trump to compete in North Carolina, which he almost certainly must win to take the White House, until the very end. Republicans have been quick to temper Democrats’ optimism, arguing that they still have the edge in a state where rural areas and a critical mass of conservative-leaning suburbs and exurbs remain reliably red.
“Who wins Wisconsin may depend on this crumbling GOP stronghold” via Reid J. Epstein of The New York Times — As places like Elm Grove and its much larger Waukesha County neighbor, Brookfield, gradually shift from Republican dominance to toss-up status, they have chipped away at the party’s advantage in right-leaning suburbs across the country. And without running up a big victory of more than 20 percentage points in Waukesha County, the statewide math becomes next to impossible for Republicans, who cannot overcome the Democratic advantages in Madison and Milwaukee through the state’s rural red counties alone. In many places in the presidential battleground states, the election has become a game of margins. Nowhere is this clearer than in Elm Grove and Brookfield, where Harris and former U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney held an event last month.
“This overlooked Michigan County gets the political spotlight every four years” via Mitch Smith of The New York Times — There is a pervasive sense in and around Saginaw, Michigan, of being overlooked, even forgotten, by industry and government. Saginaw County’s population has declined in the last four decades. Harris visited on Monday. Vance held a rally there on Tuesday. And county residents, a bellwether that has picked the winner of the last four Presidential Elections, know that their votes will help determine who assumes the presidency and which party controls the House and Senate. “On one hand, it’s very cool and it’s very unique to have so much attention on this place,” said Alex Mixter, 33, a videographer who lives in Saginaw and plans to vote for Harris. “But we need a lot more than attention. We need investments. We need things to feel normal again.”
“FAU polls find slight movement toward Harris in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. Battlegrounds far too close to call.” via Anthony Man of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel — Election Eve polls in the three northern battleground states that could decide the Presidential Election found slight movement toward Harris. Harris is still effectively tied with Trump. The three polls found Harris ever-so-slightly ahead of Trump in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. However, the leads are small and within the polling margin of error, which means either candidate could be ahead or tied. “While we are seeing some movement toward Vice President Harris in our final battleground polls, the race is still very close. A movement of a few points in either direction in the last day could be the difference,” Kevin Wagner, an FAU political scientist, said via email.
“So what’s up with that Iowa poll? A few scenarios” via Philip Bump of The Washington Post — For the past decade, the Des Moines Register’s final poll of Iowa before a presidential contest has primarily drawn attention when it comes in January or February — that is before the Iowa caucuses set presidential contenders on the path to the nomination (or, often, not). The polls released before the 2016 and 2020 General Elections were less momentous because Trump had held consistent, stable leads in the state. And those held. But the results of the Register’s final 2024 poll, conducted by Selzer & Co. and released Saturday evening, were truly stunning, even considering the high bar required for any new development to reach that standard in this tumultuous year.
“GOP’s closing election message on health baffles strategists, worries experts” via Dan Diamond of The Washington Post — First came GOP House Speaker Mike Johnson’s pledge to overhaul the Affordable Care Act if Trump wins the Presidential Election. Then Howard Lutnick, co-Chair of Trump’s transition team, endorsed Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s vaccine skepticism and suggested that a future Trump administration would empower Kennedy to help oversee vaccine data. Three days later, Kennedy announced that Trump would seek to remove fluoride from Americans’ drinking water as a Day One priority. The statements add up to a surreal final week of campaigning for Republicans in which several of Trump’s top surrogates are introducing unconventional — and generally unpopular — ideas that pit them against the health-policy establishment ahead of Election Day.
“Steve Kornacki predicts election results will come ‘quicker’ than in 2020” via Grace Harrington of The Daily Beast — Kornacki, the political data guru and broadcaster best known for his Election Night coverage on MSNBC, is “cautiously optimistic” that this year’s election will be called much quicker than in 2020. “It’s gonna be quicker, maybe significantly quicker,” Kornacki said on Pod Save America. Kornacki cited the decrease in mail-in voting and changes in vote-counting procedures from 2020 as ways to speed up the process. “Others that haven’t even changed the procedures, at least they have more experience with it now,” he said. The polls in swing states have been in near deadlock — neither Harris nor Trump has been able to pull out of the margin of error. So even though Kornacki is known for his marathon of polling analysis on Election Night, he says he’s carving a few hours out of the day to take a walk and clear his head while early voter returns come in.
“Republicans bring back fake electors in battlegrounds” via Liz Crampton and Kyle Cheney of POLITICO — Many of the people preparing to cast votes for Trump in the Electoral College in 2024 were involved in his plot to subvert the election in 2020. Some are even facing criminal charges for it. Of the 93 Republicans designated as prospective presidential electors for Trump from the seven battleground states, eight face felony charges for signing false Electoral College certificates in 2020. Another five signed similar certificates in 2020 but were not charged. And at least six others played notable roles in challenging the results of the 2020 Election or promoting election conspiracy theories. All told, at least 1 in 5 prospective Trump electors from battleground states this year had some connection to the scheme to overturn the 2020 Election.
“The Proud Boys have regrouped and are signaling election plans” via Tawnell D. Hobbs and Jennifer Levitz of The Wall Street Journal — Members of the Proud Boys, key instigators in the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot, are mobilizing in support of Trump — and in some cases, making threats about the Presidential Election. While it isn’t clear what the far-right group is planning or how coordinated its plans are, many chapters are amplifying election-cheating claims made by Trump or his allies and discussing potential responses. Chapters have gathered across state lines, talked about watching polls, and boasted about attending Trump rallies to protect the former President. The online chatter comes as law-enforcement officials confront an unprecedented array of aggressors this election season: foreign operatives, homegrown extremists, and lone wolves such as those accused of trying to assassinate Trump.
—“On Telegram, a violent preview of what may unfold on Election Day and after” via Paul Mozur, Adam Satariano, Aaron Krolik and Steven Lee Myers of The New York Times
—“The Americans prepping for a second Civil War” via Charles Bethea of The New Yorker
— 2024 — FLORIDA —
“3 out of every 5 Florida voters have already cast ballots in Presidential Election” via Anthony Man of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel — Floridians continued to turn out in heavy numbers over the weekend vote in the Presidential Election and other high-stakes contests, such as proposals to legalize recreational marijuana for adults and enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution. As of Monday afternoon, almost 8.3 million Floridians had voted early or by mail. That represents 59.3% of state residents who are eligible and registered to vote. Turnout was slightly higher in Broward and significantly higher in Palm Beach County. Figures are based on data posted by Fresh Take Florida at the University of Florida College of Journalism and Communications, which compiles figures from county Supervisors of Elections websites and the state Division of Elections.
“Florida Republicans head into Election Day with massive early vote lead” via Eric Daugherty of Florida’s Voice — Heading into Election Day on Tuesday, Florida Republicans now have a beefy lead of over 800,000 voters or around 10 points. That is significantly “redder” than the 2020 Election, where Democrats enjoyed a lead of a little more than a point heading into Election Day. In the in-person early vote only, Republicans out-voted Democrats by over 1 million votes or around 20 points. Meanwhile, for mail-in voting, Democrats hold a lead of just under 7 points – half of their lead in 2020. The Republicans had a more comprehensive total lead before early in-person voting ended in most of the state but remained open in some bluer areas. Mail is also still being counted.
Rick Scott wraps up campaign — Since the start of the campaign, Scott has traveled through Florida, talking directly to voters and hearing about what they want from their federal government. Many shared concerns about Washington’s dysfunction. In July, Scott announced he had visited every Florida county — all 67 — but he didn’t stop there. He continues to travel to every corner of the state, big and small cities, leaving no stone unturned to make sure he shares his message about what is on the ballot this November. Since Friday, Scott had visited Pinellas, Hillsborough, Broward, Miami-Dade, Orange, St. Lucie, Okeechobee, DeSoto, Hendry, and Collier counties to rally Floridians to get out the vote. He’s been joined by numerous surrogates on the trail, including Sen. Marco Rubio. Scott has been met with incredible enthusiasm for Republicans and his plan to “Make Washington Work for Floridians.”
Happening today — Scott finishes the race with GOTV rallies in Jacksonville, Orlando, and Tampa ahead of his Election Night party in Bonita Springs: 7 a.m. ET, Jacksonville; 9:30 a.m. ET, Orlando; 11:45 a.m. ET, Tampa; locations provided upon RSVP to [email protected].
— 2024 — MORE FLORIDA —
“Ron DeSantis, administration leaders urge votes to think of the children before legalizing pot” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — Fears about child drug addiction and marketing of THC as candy dominated a roundtable on marijuana led by DeSantis. At an official event in Miami, DeSantis and members of his administration explicitly stoked fear about Amendment 3. If passed, the measure will legalize recreational pot in Florida. “What’s happened in places like California is these companies create these marijuana gummies and like candy-type marijuana,” DeSantis said. “They package it in ways that are appealing to young people and minors. Sour Patch Kids — oh no, it’s not Sour Patch Kids. It’s actually weed gummies.”
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— 2024 — EVEN MORE —
“Some Republican-led states refuse to let Justice Department monitors into polling places” via The Associated Press — Some Republican-led states say they will block the Justice Department’s election monitors from going inside polling places on Election Day, pushing back on federal authorities’ decadeslong practice of watching for violations of federal voting laws. Officials in Florida and Texas have said they won’t allow federal election monitors into polling sites on Tuesday. And on Monday, Missouri filed a federal lawsuit seeking a court order to block federal officials from observing inside polling places. The Justice Department announced last week that it’s deploying election monitors in 86 jurisdictions across 27 states on Election Day. The Justice Department declined to comment on Monday on the Missouri lawsuit and the moves by other Republican-led states.
“This student-led PAC’s voter-mobilization effort in SD 3 is reporting some eye-catching numbers” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — Florida Future Leaders, a student-led PAC that launched this year to mobilize voters in key state legislative districts, has been working for months to flip the seat representing Senate District 3 blue. On the eve of Election Day, after crossing the $1 million mark in fundraising, it’s reporting some striking numbers. Citing data from the Democrat-run NGP VAN database, the group reports that Democratic turnout among voters aged 18-23 is nearly 6 percentage points higher in SD 3 than statewide (48.1% to 42.4%). The divide is even wider among independents. Voters aged 18-23 in SD 3 without party affiliation are turning out 7 points higher than their statewide counterparts (37.3% to 30.4%).
— STATEWIDE —
“Florida election police quashes fraud complaints against DeSantis officials” via Douglas Soule of USA Today Network — Florida’s statewide election police has shut down two elections fraud complaints filed against officials of DeSantis’ administration. The complaints were against Jason Weida, secretary of the Agency for Health Care Administration, and Erik Dellenback, the Faith and Community-Based Liaison to the Governor, for their opposition to this year’s abortion-access ballot initiative. Andrew Darlington, director of the Florida Office of Election Crimes and Security, said they were exempt from a law preventing public officials from using their official authority to interfere with an election. In letters sent Friday, Darlington said they were acting within their jurisdictional abilities and cited a section of that law that said it “shall not be construed so as to limit the political activity in general … elections of the officials appointed as the heads … of state administrative agencies.”
“Florida insurance claims from Hurricanes Helene and Milton near $5B” via Drew Dixon of Florida Politics — Estimated insurance claims as a result of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which plowed into Florida within two weeks of each other, have increased more than $400 million in just the past week. The Office of Insurance Regulation (OIR) reports that as of Nov. 1, the reported insurance claims have now amounted to $4.606 billion in estimated damages. The OIR has established a Catastrophic Claims Data and Reporting website that tracks the number of insurance claims and estimated dollar amounts in damage that have been filed. The total estimated tab from both storms has increased substantially since the Oct. 25 update, which estimated there were $4.285 billion in insurance claims from both storms in Florida. Hurricane Milton accounts for the larger portion of the estimated cost of insurance claims. Milton’s insurance claims amount to $3.003 billion, up from $2.848 billion the previous week.
“New Florida Medicaid Director named” via Florida Phoenix — There’s a new face to Florida’s Medicaid program. Brian Meyer is now Deputy Secretary for Medicaid, the Agency for Health Care Administration (AHCA) website shows, which makes him the state’s Medicaid Director. Meyer has been in the position since Oct. 7, AHCA Deputy Chief of Staff Alecia Collins told the Florida Phoenix in an email. He is paid $200,000 annually. Meyer was initially hired at AHCA in 2005. He worked alongside Tom Wallace, AHCA Deputy Secretary for Health Care Finance and Data, who abruptly resigned on Sept. 19. AHCA Secretary Jason Weida announced the departure in an email, saying Wallace was taking annual leave before his resignation took effect.
“Space Coast Rocket founder Robert Burns pleads guilty to COVID-19 fraud, U.S. says” via Eric Daugherty of Florida’s Voice — The founder of the Florida media blog “Space Coast Rocket,” Burns, has pleaded guilty to COVID-19-related wire fraud, according to the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Middle District of Florida. The maximum penalty for the crime is 20 years in federal prison. There is not yet a sentencing date. Authorities said that in 2021, Burns had applied for three Paycheck Protection Plan loans to support two of his businesses. “In all three applications, Burns made false statements to obtain the loans,” the attorney’s office said. “In one instance, he inflated his company’s income to obtain a larger payout and supported the application with false or fictitious tax documents. In total, Burns fraudulently obtained $57,186 in PPP funds. Burns then spent all the funds on non-business purposes.”
— D.C. MATTERS —
“FBI unveils ‘command post’ for voter complaints, security during Presidential Election” via David Lyons of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel — The FBI in South Florida is setting up a so-called “election command post” on Tuesday that will enable its agents to monitor voter security in the Southern District of Florida in conjunction with the U.S. Attorney’s Office. Last month, U.S. Attorney Markenzy Lapointe said he had designated several federal prosecutors in his office to participate in a national Justice Department program to field Election Day complaints of “voting rights concerns, threats of violence to election officials or staff, and election fraud.” The Southern District of Florida includes Broward, Palm Beach and Miami-Dade counties, extending from Fort Pierce to Key West.
“Trump threatens up to 100% tariffs on Mexico over immigration” via Jeff Stein of The Washington Post — Trump threatened tariffs as high as 100% on Mexico, America’s largest trading partner last year, in yet another escalation of the drastic protectionist promises of his 2024 campaign. In Raleigh, North Carolina, a day before Election Day, Trump said he would impose Mexican tariffs between 25% and 100% until it closed its border with the United States. Trump has already suggested new import duties of as high as 20% on every country in the world, and economists have warned that if enacted, his sweeping new trade proposals are likely to send costs soaring for U.S. consumers. The proposal also includes an irony: As President, Trump negotiated a trade deal with Mexico and Canada that replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement, which he long derided. Even a 25% tariff would undermine his signed trade deal and invite retaliation from Mexico’s government.
— LOCAL: S. FL —
“Wet weather will mark Election Day in South Florida” via Abigail Hasebroock of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel — Heavy downpours and even flooding may mar South Florida on Tuesday — with voters facing soggy conditions as they head to the polls. The chance of rain on Tuesday hovers around 60%, with showers likely to pick up after 1 p.m. Conditions also will be breezy, with wind gusts hitting as high as 25 mph. “It could be kind of a steady stream of on and off showers through most of the day tomorrow,” said NWS Miami meteorologist George Rizzuto. Though not directly impacting the South Florida showers on Tuesday, Rizzuto said the system in the Caribbean, which is forecast to become a hurricane later in the week, is pushing a “moisture envelope” northward that is affecting the pattern of rain and wind in South Florida. The Caribbean system “is kind of an indirect influence,” Rizzuto said, adding: “We’re kind of sandwiched between an area of high pressure and an area of low pressure.” Showers are expected to continue through Thursday night.
“Elections Supervisors, website vendor, prepare for Election Day after issues during Primary” via Wicker Perlis of Treasure Coast Newspapers — When General Election votes are counted Tuesday evening, Election Supervisors on the Treasure Coast are hoping preparations made in recent weeks will prevent the types of election-night website outages that were seen in St. Lucie and Indian River counties during the August Primaries. Backup plans for releasing those tallies are also in place, just in case. In August, the vendor that operates websites for the Supervisor of Elections offices in St. Lucie and Indian River, along with dozens of others across the state, experienced issues that made those websites inaccessible. Voting results were released via emails to the media, over loudspeakers at the Supervisors’ Offices and on social media.
“Rain chances increase for Election Day in Palm Beach County. When is the best time to vote?” via Kimberly Miller of the Palm Beach Post — Palm Beach County voters may be dodging showers and getting buffeted by wind on Election Day as the tropics pump moisture into South Florida. Anthony Reynes, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Miami, said Tuesday is not expected to be a complete washout. Still, there is up to a 50% chance of rain along the coastal areas of Palm Beach County, with sustained winds as high as 25 mph and gusts to 35 mph. Tropical Storm Rafael, forecast to become a hurricane later this week, is not expected to impact Tuesday’s weather directly but could hike rain chances and cause thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.
“Parkland survivor agrees to share rights to gunman’s name with other victims’ families” via Rafael Olmeda of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel — Parkland mass shooting survivor Anthony Borges has agreed to share the rights to the name of the man who tried to kill him, ending a legal standoff with other families shattered by the 2018 tragedy at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School. Borges, 21, announced through his lawyer earlier this year that he had secured exclusive rights to the name of Nikolas Cruz, who shot and killed 17 people at the Parkland High School on Valentine’s Day 2018 and physically wounded another 17. Borges was the most seriously injured survivor, taking five bullets to the lungs, abdomen and legs.
“‘Trump Alleged Shooter’ sends letter to Palm Beach Post after prosecutors’ warning to Judge” via Hannah Phillips of the Palm Beach Post — Prosecutors warned that the man accused of plotting to kill Trump would try to contact the media. Fearing calls for violence against the former President or attempts to undermine the trial, the attorneys asked a Judge to limit Ryan Routh’s access to case materials — a move Routh’s lawyers said would violate his rights to free speech and a fair trial. While the lawyers debated his ability to publicize his political viewpoints, Routh did precisely that. Two weeks after prosecutors filed a motion detailing Routh’s desire to write to various news outlets, The Palm Beach Post received an unsolicited letter addressed from “Trump Alleged Shooter Ryan W. Routh.”
“Indian River County expects 43,000 new residents by 2050, and is beginning preparations” via Nick Slater of Treasure Coast Newspapers — The county expects nearly 43,000 more residents in the next quarter-century and is asking where they will go and how they will get services such as water and sewers. A new study has found that the county has enough open space to accommodate the projected growth, with room to spare, within what is known as its urban-service boundary. An urban-service boundary defines where utilities are provided. Consultants found that the Indian River can accommodate around 51,000 new residents within the boundary. Yet just because the study says that number of people can fit, doesn’t mean the county knows where.”
— LOCAL: C. FL —
“Early voting in Orange County finishes with long lines but shorter ones predicted Tuesday” via Skyler Swisher of the Orlando Sentinel — Orange County’s political leaders don’t want voters to be put off by the long lines seen at polling places this weekend. Their message is to go vote on Election Day. University of Central Florida students waited hours to cast their ballots during the final days of early voting on Saturday and Sunday, sparking concerns that the long waits could dampen turnout. Voters at other early-voting sites, from Apopka to south Orange to east Orlando, also waited on what some elected officials called “incredibly long lines” during last week’s early voting. That resulted in “understandably frustrated and fatigued voters,” according to a letter signed by federal, state and local elected Democrats and sent to the county’s Supervisor of Elections Friday. But Samuel Vilchez Santiago, Chair of the Orange County Democratic Party, said on Monday he doesn’t expect Election Day lines will be as bad. Voters will report to their assigned precincts, and more than 440,000 people in Orange County have voted early or by mail, which should help keep waits to a minimum, he said.
“Ethics Board dismisses complaint against Orange Commissioner Mayra Uribe” via Stephen Hudak of the Orlando Sentinel — A state Ethics Commission has tossed out a citizen’s complaint against Orange County Commissioner Uribe for providing hundreds of free luxury box tickets to a not-for-profit group headed by her husband. The complaint, lodged by attorney Christian Waugh, alleged Uribe misused her elected position to enrich her household income. But the Florida Commission on Ethics met Oct. 25, reviewed Waugh’s complaint for “legal sufficiency” and determined the complaint’s contents were inadequate to sustain a violation of the Code of Ethics or other laws within the Commission’s jurisdiction. Waugh’s complaint has been used as a cudgel to attack Uribe’s character during the stretch run of her re-election campaign — and the attacks have continued even after the Ethics Commission’s decision.
“Theologian, civil rights leader and author Howard Thurman is being celebrated in Daytona” via Eileen Zaffiro-Kean of the Daytona Beach News-Journal — An event will be held on Nov. 18 to celebrate Daytona Beach-born theologian, civil rights leader and author Thurman. There will be tours of Thurman’s 128-year-old boyhood home that still stands a few blocks south of Orange Avenue, a luncheon, and a special program with keynote speaker Kenyatta R. Gilbert, Dean of the School of Divinity at Howard University. Event organizers describe the occasion as a holy pilgrimage to honor the legacy and celebrate the Nov. 18, 1899, birthday of the man who became a mentor to Martin Luther King Jr. and a friend of Mahatma Gandhi.
“Despite neighbors’ fears over homeless shelter, Orlando OKs massive deal with Orange County” via Ryan Gillespie of the Orlando Sentinel — Despite a last-minute hiccup, Orlando City Council members approved a sweeping agreement with Orange County that effectively blocks a planned annexation of the sprawling Deseret Ranch. The annexation would have brought 80 square miles of undeveloped ranch and agricultural lands into the city limits, and for weeks, it had seemed on a fast track for approval. But behind the scenes, city and county leaders quietly negotiated a deal settling several hot-button issues that caused conflict, including annexations, recycling, and homelessness. The agreement was approved by the City Council by a 5-2 vote, with Commissioners Tony Ortiz and Jim Gray in opposition.
“Oath of Fealty: How UF forced faculty cooperation with a GOP-backed civics center.” via Garrett Shanley of The Chronicle of Higher Education — It was the Spring of 2024, and the University of Florida’s new Hamilton Center for Classical and Civic Education was getting off the ground. Ben Sasse, then the university’s President, was a self-described “zealot” of the center, a Republican-backed venture to instruct students about the Western canon and civil discourse. Several graduate students had complained that the liberal arts faculty were targeting them for affiliating with the Hamilton Center. Sasse spoke to David Richardson, then dean of the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences. For most of the last academic year, the Hamilton Center was locked in a behind-the-scenes turf war with the college.
“UF nixed an Israel-Palestine symposium at the last minute. Why?” via Divya Kumar of the Tampa Bay Times — The day before a two-day symposium called “Critical Conversations in the Humanities: The War in Israel/Palestine” was supposed to start at the University of Florida, university officials told its organizers they would be pulling its support and the event could not take place on campus. A spokesperson for the university said the event, which ultimately took place Friday and Saturday at a Gainesville church and on Zoom, was “wrongly marketed” as a UF-sponsored event, and therefore “was not compliant with the university’s use of space policy.” But organizers say they had approval and a pledge of financial support months ahead of time.
— LOCAL: TB —
“Tampa Bay’s top political donors pour millions of dollars into 2024 presidential race” via Joanne Drilling and Devonta Davis of the Tampa Bay Business Journal — The 2024 presidential campaign is projected to exceed fundraising records, and Tampa Bay business leaders are playing an active role. That’s according to a recent analysis by The Business Journals of second quarter Federal Election Commission filings, which focused explicitly on donors who gave at least $25,000. In the Tampa Bay region, the top donor for Q2 was Amber L. Fey from St. Petersburg, who donated $350,000 to Trump 47 Committee Inc. The second largest donor in the metro for Q2 was David Grain of Sarasota, who donated $223,200 in three donations to Act Blue, HMP and One Virginia Fund. Scott came in a close third for Q2. The Senator donated six times to the Rick Scott for Florida committee, totaling $202,572.
“Horton family gives $1 million to USF’s on-campus stadium” via Breanne Williams of the Tampa Bay Business Journal — Oscar and Miriam Horton have donated $1 million to support the University of South Florida’s on-campus stadium, which will break ground later this week. The gift was given through The Horton Family Foundation. The Hortons are best known for their business Horton Holdings LLC, which owns and oversees Sun State International and other entities. “Athletics are the front door of the university,” Oscar Horton said. “Sports facilities and scholarships have a huge impact on student-athlete recruitment and the ability to build a strong athletics program. Miriam and I can’t wait to see all the many benefits this new on-campus stadium will bring to USF.”
— LOCAL: N. FL —
“Republicans are ahead in Duval County voter turnout, a flip from four years ago” via David Bauerlein of The Florida Times-Union — When Joe Biden became the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry Duval County since Jimmy Carter, Democrats in 2020 accounted for about 44% of votes cast at early-voting sites and by mail. Republicans were at about 38%. This year, it’s flip-flopped in Duval County. Republicans have 41.3% of those votes compared to 39.4% for Democrats. Voters without party affiliation or belonging to other parties round out the tally. Historically, Republicans have gone to the polls more than Democrats on Election Day. Nearly 55% of all registered voters in the county have cast ballots so far. In St. Johns County, the second-biggest county in the metropolitan area, 66% of eligible voters sent in votes by mail or showed up at early-voting sites. That turnout comprised nearly 58% Republican-registered voters and 22% Democrats.
“What does Jacksonville need from the election? And what does DeSantis want from it?” via A.G. Gancarski for Jax Today — Donna Deegan shocked, for whatever reason, various local Republicans with her endorsement of Harris for President. Deegan has always had a good dynamic with Harris and is the second Jacksonville Mayor to meet with her as VP; recall that Lenny Curry and Harris confabbed during the pandemic, as our COVID-19 response was spotlighted. Deegan is a capital “L” Liberal Democrat. People were shocked she was with Andrew Gillum early in the 2018 gubernatorial election cycle. However, he was the only candidate in the Primary who talked about real equity issues. The other Dems came from institutional wealth, and the GOP race was about … other things altogether.
—“Three consultants from Jacksonville work in eye of presidential race’s storm” via David Bauerlein of The Florida Times-Union
“More than 100,000 votes cast before Election Day in Gainesville and Alachua County” via Voleer Thomas of The Gainesville Sun — According to information provided by the elections office, 72,599 residents participated in early voting in Alachua County, which ran from Oct. 21 to Nov. 3. Of those, 31,956 were Democrats, 23,913 were Republicans, 14,937 had no party affiliation, and 1,793 had some other party affiliation. The total is nearly 18,000 more votes cast than during early voting in the 2020 Presidential Election. As of early Monday morning, the Supervisor of Elections Office had also received 31,931 mail ballots. Of those, 18,751 came from Democrats, 7,046 came from Republicans, 5,521 came from voters with no party affiliation, and 613 came from those with some other party affiliation.
“Tallahassee city bus service offering free rides to the polls on Election Day” via the Tallahassee Democrat — StarMetro will be on a roll to get people to the polls. Tallahassee again offers fare-free rides on their regular fixed route StarMetro and Dial-A-Ride services on Election Day. Polling places in Leon County will open at 7 a.m. and close at 7 p.m. Voters using StarMetro for transportation to and from the polls can use route planning tools on Talgov.com/StarMetro to plan their trip.
“Loranne Ausley, former Tallahassee lawmaker, injured in bike accident” via Ana Goñi-Lessan of the USA Today Network-Florida — Former Tallahassee-area state lawmaker Ausley was in a harrowing bike accident Saturday, according to social media posts from her husband. In posts on both Facebook and X on Sunday, he said her accident occurred during a triathlon in North Florida. After surgery on her neck Sunday morning, she was stable, according to the post. In 2020, Ausley was elected to the Senate but lost re-election against Sen. Corey Simon, her Republican challenger, in 2022.
“Ausley recovering from neck surgery” via Christine Sexton and Jay Waagmeester of Florida Phoenix — Ausley underwent a successful neck surgery Sunday following a serious bike accident Saturday, her husband Bill Hollimon posted to Ausley’s social media accounts. The accident occurred during a North Florida triathlon, her husband said in the post. Although he did not name the race, the Panama City Beach Ironman was held Saturday. “She is a fixture in our community here. We are all hoping for her complete recovery,” said state Rep. Allison Tant, who has known Ausley for 25 years, in a phone call with the Phoenix. A Democrat, Ausley, 61, initially served in the state House of Representatives for eight years before being term-limited out. She was elected to the chamber again in 2016 and served two terms before being elected to the state Senate in 2020.
“New not-for-profit with ties to Commissioner makes bid to sell Escambia County built homes” via Mollye Barrows of the Pensacola News-Journal — Escambia County’s search is underway for a nonprofit organization to help it sell county-constructed homes built to meet the need for affordable housing. It has been narrowed down to two organizations: Pensacola Habitat for Humanity and HRC Affordable Housing Solutions, Inc. This new not-for-profit was recently created and connected to Escambia County Commissioner Lumon May. Escambia County has built 17 houses to “assist with the affordable housing crisis.” The county says most homes are complete or near completion, but they are sitting empty because the government entity is not legally allowed to sell them. The deadline to submit a proposal was Oct. 21, and Pensacola Habitat for Humanity and HRC Affordable Housing Solutions are on the vendor selection short list.
— LOCAL: SW FL —
“Republican George Kruse faces Democrat Sari Lindroos-Valimaki for countywide Manatee County seat” via Ryan Ballogg of the Bradenton Herald — Incumbent Republican Manatee County Commissioner Kruse is seeking re-election against Democratic challenger Lindroos-Valimaki in Tuesday’s General Election. The candidates will compete for the District 7 seat, an at-large seat representing all of Manatee County. Kruse was elected in 2020. He defeated Republican rival Kevin Van Ostenbridge in the August Primary with over 58% of the vote. Kruse’s campaign points include a return to a Board that listens to citizens and the rollback of unpopular cuts to local wetland protections. Kruse says he would seek to reign in rapid development and tighten the county’s budget. Lindroos-Valimaki, a Finnish IT and cybersecurity professional who has lived in Florida since 1983, is seeking her first election to local government.
“Manatee School District pushes for referendum to ‘move the needle’ on local education” via Victoria Villanueva-Marquez of the Bradenton Herald — Manatee County voters will decide Tuesday whether to renew the School District’s 1-mill property tax to help fund public schools. The additional tax, which voters previously approved in 2018 and again in 2021, will appear on the General Election ballot. District officials say the extra funding has been instrumental in increasing teacher pay, school safety, early childhood education and athletic programs. If voters renew the tax, homeowners will continue to owe $1 for every $1,000 on a home’s assessed value. For example, according to District figures, a homeowner would owe $33 per month or $400 a year on a home worth $400,000.
“Who is running for Mayor and City Commission seats in Anna Maria and Holmes Beach?” via Jason Dill of the Bradenton Herald — Holmes Beach and Anna Maria have candidates running for the Mayor of each city, while Holmes Beach also has four candidates vying for two City Commission seats. Brian Seymour and Mark Short are vying to become Anna Maria’s next Mayor after current Mayor Dan Murphy decided not to seek re-election. Murphy has held the Mayor’s Office for the past 10 years. Short, the City of Anna Maria’s Commission Chair, said the biggest issue is the continued recovery from recent hurricanes. “The walkway out to the city pier was destroyed during Hurricane Milton,” Short said.
“Palmetto voters will elect first new Mayor in over a decade. Meet the candidates” via Michael Moore of the Bradenton Herald — An agriculture executive is facing off against a former City and County Commissioner in the race to become Palmetto’s next Mayor. With Palmetto Mayor Shirley Groover Bryant choosing not to seek re-election, Dan West is running against Charles Smith to become the next elected leader of the city. Two Palmetto City Commission seats will also be on the ballot. Bryant has served four terms as Palmetto’s Mayor since 2008. West and Smith have different visions for Palmetto and what their time in office would look like. Both candidates say they want to see the city’s continued growth under their leadership.
“Sarasota, Manatee storm debris cleanup will take months as workers collect vast volume” via Derek Gilliam of the Sarasota Herald-Tribune — Picture the NASA Vehicle Assembly Building, with its 4.8 million cubic yards of space under a 550-foot high ceiling covering 8 acres of floor space — the massive building constructed to help catapult the United States to the moon. By the time Sarasota and Manatee County workers and contractors have picked up every broken branch and scrap of debris left behind by Hurricanes Helene and Milton over the last six weeks, they will have more than filled every inch of space in one of the largest buildings ever constructed. Manatee County officials estimate that about 3 million cubic yards of debris were created following the storms, while Sarasota County estimates there are another 2 million cubic yards.
— TOP OPINION —
“Tips for surviving Election Day” via Diane Roberts of Florida Phoenix — No matter what, we all need some tips for surviving the shouting, the demonstrating, the tantrum-throwing, the reality-denying, and the lawsuits, which are the habitual response of our fellow citizens when they don’t get their way.
Here you go:
Buy a couple of cases of Wild Turkey 110.
Do it now. Other people will also have thought of this.
You may experience extreme nausea, even prolonged vomiting.
Wearing a bucket around your neck will cut down on your dry-cleaning bill.
Go for a long walk. Maybe to Canada.
Cheer yourself up with an end-of-the-world-zombies-rule movie binge: “28 Days Later,” “Dawn of the Dead,” “Shaun of the Dead,” “Juan of the Dead,” and the great “Dr. Strangelove.”
Understand that grieving is natural. So are rage, horror, disbelief, despair, and disgust. Allow yourself to feel your feels.
It’s OK to drink. (See above).
You will need lots of cookies. I recommend snickerdoodles dipped in grain alcohol and lightly dusted with Xanax.
Indeed, a couple of pounds of Xanax is a fine idea.
If your doctor balks at prescribing Xanax, Ketamine, OxyContin, morphine, or other useful medicine, get yourself some rubber cement to huff.
In a pinch, library paste will afford a small buzz.
Then attack that closet. Throw out the pants you last wore in college, the dress that’s way too tight, the shirts you thought were cool in 1998.
(Keep the camo — it might come in handy).
The idea is to make room for a chair, a decent bottle of Cabernet, a baseball bat, and some cookies (see above).
You may need to lie low till things settle down.
Assuming things eventually do settle down.
— OPINIONS —
“How to survive swing-state stress: Prayer, canvassing and knowing when to let go” via Rick Rojas of The New York Times — In the final dash to Election Day, with the race so close, the campaigns have poured time and money into Georgia, relentlessly chasing the voters who have not made up their minds or might change them at the last minute. But flanking those sought-after voters are people who have been certain about their choice for months now. To many of them, the election’s stakes feel like sandbags slung over their shoulders. And the inescapable noise has only added to the pressure they felt. Social media, like television, has been a gusher of commentary with varying levels of accuracy and hysteria.
“Trump isn’t playing to win the election, he’s plotting to steal it” via David Rothkopf of The Daily Beast — Team Trump knows they have lost. They have known for a while. They are not playing to win. They’re playing to steal the election. During the past week alone, they have released as many fake polls — 75 in total, created not to reflect public opinion but to serve a political purpose — as they have during the entire period since Harris officially became the Democratic candidate. These polls are not intended to affect the outcome of the election. Instead, their purpose is to tee up Big Lie 2.0, Trump’s argument that he was ahead, the polls showed it and that any Harris victory has to result from cheating. While such polls are costly, estimates suggest that tens of millions have been spent on politically biased purpose polls during this campaign and require an enormous amount of coordination; they are by no means the only part of the extensive effort by Trump, his campaign, the MAGA GOP and the enemy governments who are supporting their efforts to lay the groundwork for a massive series of challenges to the 2024 Election results.
“Trump stepped on a rake yesterday — and he knew it” via Marc A. Caputo of The Bulwark — Trump doesn’t admit to mistakes, but he knew he made one Sunday morning. For 96 minutes, at the first of his three rallies that day, Trump barely looked at his teleprompter. He darkly obsessed about election fraud, railed against polls showing him down, and savaged the “bloodsuckers” in the news media, adding he wouldn’t mind if “the fake news” took an assassin’s bullet for him. The crowd laughed. Privately, campaign staffers groaned. Trump sounded as if he were losing. And this was no way to start the week or close out a presidential campaign with three days left until Election Day. “He knew after he got off stage,” said a confidant who spoke with Trump afterward about the Lititz, Pennsylvania rally Sunday morning and relayed the ex-President’s frame of mind to The Bulwark on condition of anonymity. The source would not disclose the contents of the conversation, but Trump tacitly acknowledged that he should’ve stuck more to the script.
“Amid poll flap, celebrities rush final contributions to Harris campaign” via Byron York of the Washington Examiner — As is traditional, a bunch of polls came out on Sunday for a final look at the electorate before Election Day, or at least what’s left of Election Day after all the early and mail-in voting. They showed that the race between Harris and Trump was virtually tied nationally, with perhaps little progress for Harris in the swing states. But overall, it’s the same situation we have seen for weeks. Meanwhile, the entertainment industry rushed to make its final contributions to the Harris campaign. NBC’s Saturday Night Live gave Harris a spot in the show’s opening, with all the viewership and, more importantly, the wall-to-wall press coverage such an appearance can provide. It’s probably safe to say that most unbiased judges would call Harris’ actual performance a pretty so-so affair, but Democrats loved it because they thought it would help her. And now the campaigning is finishing up kind of like it began. The polls are inconclusive, and the Democrat is wildly popular with show business, not to mention with many in the news media as well. Now we’ll see what the voters think.
— INSTAGRAM OF THE DAY —
— HAPPY BIRTHDAY —
Celebrating today are U.S. Rep. Frederica Wilson, Britton Alexander, Emma Collum, former state Rep. Ken Robertson and Eric Robinson.
___
Sunburn is authored and assembled by Peter Schorsch, Phil Ammann, Daniel Dean, Ryan Nicol, Jacob Ogles, and Drew Wilson.
