Renzo DowneyNovember 3, 2022
20min0
Are transplants to Florida driving a purple state redder?
Tag: Nate Silver
Renzo DowneyNovember 3, 2022
Associated PressOctober 25, 2020
10min690
Election analysts discuss the impact of the 2016 race on their 2020 forecasts.
Jacob OglesOctober 8, 2020
9min1576
Forecaster lists just four contests as competitive this cycle.
Staff ReportsNovember 6, 2018
2min1024
According to national elections forecaster Nate Silver and other folks at FiveThirtyEight.com, Democrat Andrew Gillum has a 3-4 chance of prevailing against Republican Ron DeSantis in Florida’s gubernatorial election on Tuesday. That estimation, however, doesn’t mean Gillum is polling at 75 percent. In fact, Silver figures Gillum will walk away with about 51 percent of […]
Peter SchorschOctober 31, 2018
6min420
Despite being outspent and hammered by PACs on everything from health care votes to yacht purchases, U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan appears primed to stave off a challenge from Democratic attorney David Shapiro in Florida’s 16th. The polls have been clear for quite a while. October polls have shown Buchanan with a growing, outside-the-margin lead: St. […]
Drew WilsonOctober 18, 2018
4min378
Democratic U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist added more than $188,000 to his campaign account between early August and the end of September, bringing his total fundraising past the $3.25 million mark. Crist, who represents Florida’s 13th Congressional District, brought $114,000 of that cash via individual donors, including $104,000 contribs exceeding the threshold requiring donor names to […]
Drew WilsonOctober 10, 2018
4min940
Democrat Nancy Soderberg and Republican Michael Waltz are tied in the race for Florida’s 6th Congressional District according to a new poll from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research. The poll, conducted Oct. 1 through Oct. 4, found both candidates pulling 45 percent among voters in CD 6, the seat recently vacated by Republican gubernatorial nominee Ron […]
Drew WilsonOctober 9, 2018
5min277
A month after claiming U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson was the most vulnerable incumbent nationwide, Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight says his odds of defeating Gov. Rick Scott are improving. Based on polls alone, the political forecasting website currently lists the third-term Democrat with a 57 percent chance of earning another six years in Washington. He fares a […]
Drew WilsonOctober 1, 2018
6min589
Republican Gov. Rick Scott and Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson are statistically tied in a new poll of November’s U.S. Senate race, though Scott holds a razor-thin edge. The St. Pete Polls survey, commissioned by Florida Politics, found Nelson, Florida’s only statewide elected Democrat, and Scott, who is term-limited after eight years in the Governor’s […]
Associated PressNovember 11, 2016
7min216
For an American public that relies on data for everything from where to find the best taco to the likely victor in a baseball game, Election Day offered a jarring wake-up: The data was wrong. Donald Trump‘s stunning electoral win came despite prognosticators’ overwhelming insistence he would lose. And it has forced many to question […]