This week, for the first time, Gov. Ron DeSantis jumped ahead of Donald Trump in trades forecasting the winner of the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.
DeSantis took the lead Wednesday on the prediction market PredictIt, at a $0.24 yes price to Trump’s $0.23. The Governor held his lead until Friday, when the two tied at $0.22.
The Florida Governor and ardent Trump-ally has been trailing the former President for the past month. Near the end of March, DeSantis closed in on Trump. The Governor started March at a $0.16 yes price to Trump’s $0.25, and ended at $0.19 to Trump’s $0.24.
Former South Carolina Governor and U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, at $0.10, leads a field of relative long-shots that include South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem ($0.08), U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas ($0.06), and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo ($0.05)
DeSantis’ ascendance comes as Trump has struggled to maintain visibility amid a social media blackout, but it should not surprise those who have been tracking the enthusiasm of activists for the Governor in recent months.
DeSantis was the clear choice of activists at this year’s Conservative Political Action Conference in Orlando event that drew a national crowd. Trump was the choice of 55% and DeSantis 21% if both men were running. But without Trump in the field, DeSantis was the choice of 43%, more than any other potential candidate.
Florida Gov. @RonDeSantisFL just vaulted to the No. 1 spot, ahead of former President Donald Trump, in Predictit online futures market for Republican 2024 nomination. DeSantis at 23 cents a share, Trump at 22 cents. @NikkiHaley 11 cents and @govkristinoem at 10 cents @PredictIt pic.twitter.com/ejL8rbjD7c
— Douglas W. Burns (@douglaswburns) April 7, 2021
Other Florida names are even more unlikely, according to forecasters.
U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio comes in at just $0.04, down $0.01 from last week. Rubio is ahead of fellow Florida Sen. Rick Scott, who is at $0.02.
DeSantis is also finding success in the prediction market for the upcoming gubernatorial election.
A yes-buy for the Republican incumbent comes in at $0.76, and a no at $0.25 on PredictIt. The next in line, Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried, stands at $0.15 for a yes-buy and $0.85 for a no.