Joe Henderson
Now that the new Florida congressional maps are official — pending court challenges, of course — Florida’s 15th Congressional District could be one of the most watched and least predictable of the Republican Primary races.
Former U.S. Rep. Dennis Ross and state Rep. Jackie Toledo are the two declared GOP candidates so far, although that could change. There is speculation state Rep. Mike Beltran of Lithia might jump in, but he’d better hurry if that’s his plan. The clock is running.
For now, we’ll concentrate on Ross and Toledo.
The new district covers large swaths of Hillsborough and Pasco counties and a little bit of Polk.
Ross, from Lakeland, served in Congress from 2011 to 2019 and was considered a rising star in the GOP leadership. He was a House senior deputy whip when he retired.
“I never viewed this amazing opportunity as a job or a career,” Ross said then. “My home has been and will continue to be in Lakeland, Florida. I look forward to returning to the practice of law and to pursuing opportunities to increase civic education for our youth and young adults, and with that encourage more engagement and participation of future generations in government.”
What changed?
Well, gas tops $4 a gallon, inflation is increasing and we could be on the brink of a recession.
“On every issue, Congress is failing us,” Ross said in a statement on his 2022 run. “I cannot sit back and watch. Now is the time to restore hope in America’s greatness. I will bring strong, conservative leadership and a positive vision for our country back to Congress.”
Ross said that 75% of his previous constituency lives in the new district, but I’d still give Toledo the home-court advantage. And after four years away from the game, it’s questionable how much clout the Ross name carries in this new district.
“There is one political axiom you can take to the bank: You don’t own name ID; you rent it,” Toledo campaign manager Fred Piccolo said. “The portions of Polk he lost are compounded by the fact that Jackie is the only Hillsborough candidate. It’s as if he’s running in a totally new district as a totally new candidate.”
Toledo’s House seat represented South Tampa and southern Hillsborough, which isn’t in this district, but I’m not sure how much that matters. She was an effective Representative because she worked on issues that directly impact the people in her district.
Toledo won considerable praise for her work in the House because she worked on actual issues while culture wars dominated the headlines. She pushed legislation aimed at stopping human sex trafficking.
Toledo successfully fought for grandparents’ visitation rights in cases where a co-parent is found culpable by a civil or criminal court in the deceased parent’s death.
Her insurance reform bill (HB 357) won unanimous support from both chambers, and that never happens.
However, I really wish she hadn’t toed the party line when she said, “Shamefully, Disney failed us.”
I know it’s Primary season and Republicans have to run hard to the right, but Disney didn’t fail anyone. Toledo is conservative, but her history suggests she governs moderately. The quote won’t hurt her in the Primary, but she could have some explaining to do if she makes it to the General Election.
“You do have two experienced people, but the demographics have changed since Ross ran the last time. A lot of people have moved into this district since he ran,” political analyst Susan A. MacManus said.
“The recency of Jackie’s work in Tallahassee could be in people’s minds. She accomplished some very popular things, especially with women. And women in the Republican Party are becoming a greater force.”
And there’s the age-old issue of any off-year election, as turnout traditionally is low.
“We are seeing a voter fatigue phenomenon across the country. He’ll have to step on the gas, which he could,” MacManus said of Ross. “But he’ll have to introduce himself to a lot of people. It’s kind of the old and new guard in the Republican Party.”
