Pollster finds Ron DeSantis beating Donald Trump, Joe Biden in Florida
Ron DeSantis has a quick response to Donald Trump's taunts. Image via AP.

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Victory Insights finds that, unlike DeSantis, Trump would lose to Biden in Florida.

Florida Republican voters would prefer Gov. Ron DeSantis as a 2024 presidential nominee over former President Donald Trump. That’s according to the findings from the latest Victory Insights poll.

The same pollster finds DeSantis would beat President Joe Biden in Florida, but Trump would narrowly lose to the Democratic incumbent.

Victory Insights polled voters on Nov. 16 and 17, surveying 700 likely Republican voters for a potential Primary matchup between the two Florida men most mentioned as Republican contenders. The same pollster also surveyed 600 likely General Election voters for hypothetical matchups with both GOP candidates going head-to-head with the Oval Office’s current occupant.

In a potential Republican Presidential Primary between Trump and DeSantis, the poll found more than 47% favoring the Florida Governor and almost 37% preferring the former President. When pollsters pushed undecided voters to pick sides, DeSantis’ lead expanded to a near 56%-45% edge over Trump.

Pollsters reported a 3.7-percentage-point margin of error, and DeSantis’ lead over Trump falls outside that with or without leaners.

That’s a strong finding especially considering Trump already launched his campaign for President in 2024. DeSantis continues to brush off questions if he will run, though he notably headlined the first cattle call of presidential contenders this weekend at the Republican Jewish Coalition’s annual conference in Las Vegas.

Even with the knowledge that Trump has declared and DeSantis has not, 42% of Florida Republicans still think DeSantis should run and just 33% believe he should back off.

As for who would win Florida in November 2024, Victory Insights pollsters tested both a DeSantis-Biden matchup and a Trump-Biden contest. It found DeSantis with more than 50% of support from voters, compared to Biden’s 46%. When undecided voters were pushed, DeSantis’ support reached almost 53% with Biden ending up with 47%.

That’s a starkly different outcome from the Biden-Trump matchup, where the pollster predicts Biden would win. The initial poll found Biden up 48% to 43%. The advantage narrowed when undecided voters were asked to pick sides, but Biden still came out on top 51% to 49%. Pollsters report a 4.14-percentage-point margin of error, pegging both races technically as statistically tied.

Of note, Trump beat Biden in 2020 in Florida by more than 3 percentage points, even as the Democrat won nationwide.

Even more than personal preference, Republican Primary voters view DeSantis as a better candidate for unseating Biden. About 61% believe DeSantis has a better shot at winning in November, and just 39% think Trump has the better shot.

The polling firm found DeSantis boasts stronger popularity compared to Trump among Republicans. When Republicans were asked to rate the two GOP candidates on a scale of 1 to 5, DeSantis averaged a 4.6 in score, while Trump averaged a 3.8.

But DeSantis notably also outperformed Trump among Democrats and independents, based on the General Election voter pool. In that smaller sample of voters, Democrats gave an average Trump rating of 1.2, but rated DeSantis a 1.8.

Among critical independent voters, they gave DeSantis an average rating of 3.3, higher than both Trump’s rating of 2.2 and Biden’s rating of 2.9.

Jacob Ogles

Jacob Ogles has covered politics in Florida since 2000 for regional outlets including SRQ Magazine in Sarasota, The News-Press in Fort Myers and The Daily Commercial in Leesburg. His work has appeared nationally in The Advocate, Wired and other publications. Events like SRQ’s Where The Votes Are workshops made Ogles one of Southwest Florida’s most respected political analysts, and outlets like WWSB ABC 7 and WSRQ Sarasota have featured his insights. He can be reached at [email protected]


5 comments

  • Tom

    November 21, 2022 at 3:33 pm

    No surprise, DeSantis will be next POTUS.
    The new generation, JFK appeal will be overwhelming vs the old cogger, just turned 80.
    The 35 year gap vs Biden will be overwhelming,

    America’s Gov is adored by Repub., liked by soft Dems, and Independents.

    DeSantis will lay out his vision, from Reagan to Trump, bridging gaps and uniting country.
    Looking at a 35 to 40 State win!

    DeSantis is the right stuff. Enjoy!

    • David in Shoreline

      November 21, 2022 at 9:11 pm

      Couldn’t have said it any better so I won’t waste time trying. Let me just throw in an obligatory DeSantis 2024!

    • Lord Weird

      November 29, 2022 at 2:06 pm

      …and then he woke up…DeSantis’s appeal to bumpkins/rednecks/other various Q-pilled troglodytes will not win a presidency.

  • gene wood

    November 21, 2022 at 10:08 pm

    With Trump’s favorability rating at 40% there is no way he can win the republican nomination much less the general election. DeSantis
    with win the nomination by a good margin and win a 40 state presidential election. First landslide election in decades. The contrast between 45 year old DeSantis and 80 year old Trump and Biden will be night and day.

  • Dan

    November 30, 2022 at 7:41 pm

    Democrats don’t need Florida to win anymore. Florida has become irrelevant. Biden lost Florida and Texas and still won the electoral college. Nobody in the US cares about Florida, its become the joke of the nation. And it deserves it.

Comments are closed.


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