Staff Reports
Last Call — A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
Ed. Note — It’s debate night in America! Sunburn will be taking a brief hiatus as our staff watches the first GOP Primary Debate. Don’t worry; the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics will return to your inboxes on Friday! Thanks for your support, and please, stay safe.
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Eight Republicans will take the stage in Milwaukee tonight as they vie to win the GOP nomination to face Democratic President Joe Biden next year.
Three Florida men are in the race, but only one of them — Gov. Ron DeSantis — will show up. Former President Donald Trump will skip the debate and instead make his case to voters in a pre-recorded interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson that will be posted online at 9 p.m.
The other Florida candidate, Francis Suarez, didn’t get an invite. The Miami Mayor on Friday claimed he met all requirements to appear on stage. RNC requirements included 40,000 unique donors, with 200 in 20 or more states. It also demanded candidates poll at 1% or higher in three high-quality national polls or a mix of national and early state polls.
Suarez’s campaign met the donor threshold earlier this month but has struggled to reach 1% in polling. A poll published by Florida-based Kaplan Strategies showed Suarez at 2% last week.
As for DeSantis, pundits far and wide have framed the debate as the Governor’s best chance to flip the narrative on his faltering campaign — since May he has slid from the clear No. 2 behind Trump to just another member of the pack of GOP candidates, sometimes polling beneath political newcomer Vivek Ramaswamy.
The main super PAC backing DeSantis’ campaign says the Governor will come prepared and will be using “his words” — a reference to the leaked debate strategy memo calling for the Governor to go on the attack against President Joe Biden, the “media,” and two opponents who are threatening his position in opinion surveys.
“I can tell you this much. … Every word you’re going to hear tonight are directly his thoughts, his words and his actions,” Never Back Down spokesperson Erin Perrine said on Wednesday’s “Fox & Friends.”
Notably, Never Back Down’s X account was briefly suspended on X, with no reason provided by the social media platform.
The debate begins at 9 p.m. on Fox News, Fox Business Network and Fox’s website.
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And a special Last Call birthday shoutout to GrayRobinson’s Kim McDougal, who celebrates another year around the sun on Thursday.
Evening Reads
—“The first debate and the race for second place” via Nate Cohn of The New York Times
—”From backbench Congressman to debate limelight: The rise of Ron DeSantis, sound bite by sound bite” via Susan Merriam, Sarah Blaskey and Ana Ceballos of the Miami Herald
—”With Donald Trump absent, all eyes on DeSantis at GOP Primary Debate” via Jay Cridlin of the Tampa Bay Times
—“DeSantis’ debate mission: prove he’s still the top Trump alternative” via Shane Goldmacher and Maggie Haberman of The New York Times
—”What people keep missing about DeSantis” via David A. Graham of The Atlantic
—”Who will win the first Republican Debate?” via Holly Fuong, Aaron Bycoffe, Humera Lodhi and Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight
—”Super PAC spox says DeSantis will use ‘his words’ during GOP presidential debate” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics
—“The RNC rejected a Victory Insights poll, denying Perry Johnson a debate invite. Why?” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics
—”Never Back Down account briefly suspended from X” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics
—”What’s going on with these viral, right-wing country music hits?” via Aja Romano of Vox
Quote of the Day
“When he got in the race, he had the first license to be the alternative to Trump. But it was a license that had an expiration date, and I think that’s probably due.”
— Longtime Republican strategist Brad Todd, on Ron DeSantis’ chances ahead of the first debate.
Bill Day’s latest
Breakthrough Insights
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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.
