Staff Reports
Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
Vice President Kamala Harris has gained significant financial support momentum over the past 24 hours, and bettors are taking notice, with bookmakers saying she’s the odds-on favorite for the Democratic nomination.
After President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the presidential race, Oddspedia updated its list of candidate odds to win the Democratic nomination.
Currently, Harris is listed with an 88% probability. Trailing her is former First Lady Michelle Obama at 8.3%, followed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
As for the odds of winning the whole shebang, Harris had surpassed Biden several times before the incumbent ended his campaign. Now that the 81-year-old has stepped aside, Harris has a 33% chance of prevailing in November. Former President Donald Trump, now officially the GOP nominee, is the favorite at 65%.
Still, Harris has quickly amassed support.
She raised $81 million in the first 24 hours of her presidential campaign – the largest 24-hour fundraising total for any presidential candidate … ever. This adds to the $240 million already in the bank for the Biden-Harris 2024 campaign.
The donations included many first-time donors, with 60% of the 888,000 donors making their first contribution of the 2024 election cycle, amounting to nearly $1.6 million collectively. The campaign also said that they added 43,000 new recurring donors. Harris’ social media page doubled its following in the last 24 hours.
The Vice President and former U.S. Senator also received support from more than 200 Florida Democratic Party leaders within hours of announcing her intent to seek the party nomination.
FDP released a statement on Monday endorsing Harris, with Chair Nikki Fried, House Democratic Leader Fentrice Driskell, and Senate Democratic Leader Lauren Book saying they were all on board alongside 236 members of Florida’s DNC delegation, which includes all of Florida’s congressional Democrats and Democratic National Committee members.
“Florida Democrats are fired up and ready to elect Kamala Harris this November,” Fried said. “As Vice President, she’s been on the front lines of the fight for the soul of our nation, and I know that she’s ready to continue the work she started with President Biden four years ago. I’m proud to give her my full endorsement for President of the United States, and look forward to electing her this November.”
The Democratic nominee will be picked at the Democratic National Convention, which starts on Aug. 19 and ends on Aug. 22.
Evening Reads
–“A guide to the coming attacks on Kamala Harris” via Judd Legum of Popular Information
–“If Harris is the nominee, it still won’t be easy to beat Donald Trump” via Nate Cohn of The New York Times
–“Is Harris a bad candidate?” via Chris Cillizza of So What
–“How the bet on an 81-year-old Joe Biden turned into an epic miscalculation” via Rebecca Ballhaus, Siobhan Hughes, Annie Linskey, Andrew Restuccia and Erich Schwartzel of The Wall Street Journal
–“Some key battleground Dems conspicuously quiet about Harris on Sunday” via Ally Mutnick, Emily Ngo and Dustin Gardiner of POLITICO Magazine
–“Where Harris stands on key issues” via Patrick Svitek, Amber Phillips, Hoshua Partlow, Brady Dennis and Jeff Stein of The Washington Post
–“Harris turns to selecting a possible Vice President” via Adam Nagourney and Jennifer Medina
–“Florida Republicans more sure than ever about Trump, unsure about what’s next for Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio” via Anthony Man of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel
—“‘He understands the sacrifices’: Rick Scott campaign launches veterans coalition” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics
–”Scott puts political force behind Tom Leek in SD 7 GOP Primary” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics
–“This Florida county is struggling with inflation and housing costs. Voters don’t trust either party to fix it.” via Monica Potts of FiveThirtyEight
–“Meet the South Florida athletes set to compete for the U.S. at 2024 Olympics” via Jackson Castenello of the Sun Sentinel
Quote of the Day
“It definitely opens up possibilities in Florida, and maybe even North Carolina. Maybe Georgia starts to look different. I think having a Black female at the top of the ticket makes states the campaign previously did not seem in play to be competitive.”
– House Democratic Leader Fentrice Driskell, on Kamala Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee.
Put It on the Tab
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
The way Gov. Ron DeSantis laid into Harris’ potential appearance at the top of the Democratic ticket, you’d think he just finished guzzling a bottle of Angostura Bitters.
Raise your copper mug – preferably filled with a Military Mule – to U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, who announced a coalition of veterans backing his bid for a second term.
Most people enjoy a few drinks in the company of good friends. Unfortunately, there are several Florida counties where those friends attempt to drive themselves home afterward. Make the roads a little safer by ordering them one of these delicious mocktails as their last drink. Tack on a water, too.
Breakthrough Insights
Tune In
Marlins try to stay hot-ish
The Miami Marlins conclude their first post-All-Star break series tonight against the New York Mets (6:40 p.m., Bally Sports Florida).
After struggling in the first half, Miami won two of three after the break against the Mets, including a 4-2 victory yesterday powered by a Jazz Chisolm Jr. three-run home run in the fourth inning. Jake Burger also homered for the Marlins in the win.
Miami pitchers combined to strike out 14 in the game.
The Marlins have handled the Mets well, especially Miami’s relief pitchers. Marlins’ relievers have gone 10 1/3 innings without allowing a run to the Mets.
Overall, Miami has won three of four games, including the last contest before the break, a 3-2 win over Cincinnati. If the Marlins can beat the Mets tonight, it would mark just the third time this season that Miami has won four of five games in a stretch.
The Marlins have won five of nine games between the two teams this year. The five wins are the most by the Marlins against any team this season.
Tonight’s game finds Miami’s Yonny Chirinos on the mound, looking for his first win of the season. The Mets counter with unbeaten David Peterson, who has won all four decisions this season.
___
Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.
