Jesse Scheckner
Miami-Dade’s voter rolls may be shifting redder, but the county at large still prefers the Democratic candidate atop the ticket over her Republican opponent, new polling shows.
A survey conducted late last month by Sarasota-based SEA Polling & Strategic Design found that Vice President Kamala Harris has a net 10-point approval rating in Miami-Dade, while ex-President Donald Trump is underwater.
SEA surveyed 400 Miami-Dade voters by phone, text and email Aug. 27-30. The firm modeled the poll with a turnout of 41% Democrat, 36% Republican and 23% NPA and a racial breakdown of 58% Hispanic, 20% White, 17% Black and 5% other.
The poll had a 4.9% margin of error.
The firm found Harris at 50% favorability and 40% unfavorability. For Trump, it’s 50% unfavorable, 46% favorable. Pollsters asked about Ron DeSantis too. The result: Florida’s Governor is at an even 46-46% in voter sentiment.
In 2020, President Joe Biden carried the county by 7 points. DeSantis won there two years later by an 11-point margin.
SEA’s polling results come on the heels of a survey Democratic consultant Christian Ulvert’s EDGE Communications firm shared Wednesday that showed Harris with an 18-point lead among likely voters in Palm Beach County.
It also comes less than a week after a survey of 500 likely Miami-Dade voters by Miami-based Inquire LLC produced markedly different results.
The Inquire poll, commissioned by Miami-Dade Commissioner Kevin Cabrera, a Republican State Committeeman and Trump ally who ran the former President’s 2020 election effort in Florida, found both that county voters view both candidates positively. Forty-nine percent of respondents said they viewed Harris favorably compared to 45% who said the opposite. For Trump, it was 48% favorable, 46% unfavorable.
The poll, conducted on the last day of the Democratic National Convention to capture peak enthusiasm for Harris’ candidacy, also found the two candidates were in a dead heat with 47% support apiece.
As of Aug. 1, Miami-Dade had 514,308 voters registered as Democrats, 458,218 registered as Republicans and 472,407 with no party affiliation. The remaining 29,132 voters belonged to a third-party group.
Since August 2022, Democrats have lost nearly 62,000 voters in Miami-Dade, while 11,000 no-party voters either left the county or joined a party. Republicans, meanwhile, gained 25,000 voters, county voter records show.
Statewide, Republicans now hold a more than 1 million-voter advantage over Democrats. Accordingly, several recent polls show Trump leading Harris by 4-7 points in Florida.
The General Election is on Nov. 5.
10 comments
Michael K
September 4, 2024 at 5:31 pm
He’s old. He’s tired. He’s crazy. And he spews torrents of lies. We’re simply sick of his schtick. A massive loss (again) would be a blessing for Republicans to rebuild a real political party from the ashes of a cult that worships an amoral felon who only cares about himself, first. And billionaires, second.
Stephen Dybas
September 4, 2024 at 5:52 pm
And that is why he is going to take Florida and the rest of the county because of people like you. You would rather vote for a flake than a person who knows how to run a country.
rick whitaker
September 4, 2024 at 5:56 pm
STEPHEN DYBAS, stay away from the deep end of the pool dude, you are sick.
JD
September 4, 2024 at 5:56 pm
Ah, yes, the myth that Trump “knows how to run a country.” Last I checked, running up a $7.8 trillion deficit and cozying up to dictators isn’t exactly masterclass leadership. And let’s not forget, Florida or not, he lost the popular vote twice. But sure, keep telling yourself he’s the country’s savior while the rest of us deal with reality. Flakes, indeed.
Michael K
September 4, 2024 at 6:44 pm
Fun fact: Half of Trump’s former cabinet members are not supporting him – including his Vice President. And some 268 former Republican administration officials signed a full-page ad in USA Today announcing that they will be voting for Vice-Presient Harris. It’s a growing movement of disaffected Republicans who cannot abide the former president and his actions.
Michael K
September 4, 2024 at 6:54 pm
Liz Cheney: “As a conservative and someone who believes in and cares about the Constitution, I have thought deeply about this and because of the danger that Donald Trump poses, not only am I not voting for Donald Trump but I will be voting for Kamala Harris.”
ELVIS
September 4, 2024 at 5:54 pm
Good afternoon America,
Expect more lying polls to prop up Democrats so they can keep purchasing adds and getting kickbacks.
The Dems know its over.
ELVIS
JD
September 4, 2024 at 5:59 pm
Evening Shitts. Still going with the “lying polls” routine, huh? Interesting strategy. Meanwhile, those same polls seem to keep lining up with reality—funny how that works. If the Dems “know it’s over,” they sure have a funny way of sticking around. But hey, keep holding out for Elvis-level comebacks.
rick whitaker
September 4, 2024 at 6:02 pm
EARL SHITTS, who are you shitting? us dems are far superior to you maga nutcases, earl try to remember that. at 83, your memory is real bad.
Alexa is Biased
September 4, 2024 at 7:00 pm
I miss the days we had a secured Southern Border. How many illegals now? Over 10 million at a cost of over 120 billion.
I miss the days of fuel prices just over $2 per gallon.
I miss the days of less than 9% inflation. The damage has been done. Look at the prices of all consumables now.
I miss the days of a strong foreign policy. Look at the worldwide chaos now. Hamas and Iran with Israel. Russia invading Ukraine. Houthi rebels taking shots at USN ships. Had anyone even heard of the Houthi’s before Dumb and Dumber took over?
I have to admit, I do miss those days.