Cole Pepper
How important is Saturday’s game against Mississippi State (Noon, ESPN) for the Florida Gators?
It could dictate the direction of the program’s future.
Florida (1-2) has struggled in the season’s opening month with losses to Miami and Texas A&M. Head coach Billy Napier is on the hot seat. Through two-plus seasons in Gainesville, Napier’s record is 12-16, well below the expectations for the Gators. Florida hasn’t enjoyed a winning season since 2020, and fans and boosters are getting restless.
With games against UCF, No. 6 Tennessee, Kentucky and No. 2 Georgia ahead on the schedule, a loss to Mississippi State could cement changes in the football program. Oddsmakers not only list Napier among the most likely head coach firings in the nation, but they have already begun to put odds on his replacement. That’s not a good sign.
According to Sportsbetting.ag, the three four picks are Lane Kiffin of Ole Miss, Liberty’s Jamey Chadwell, Missouri’s Eliah Drinkwitz and former Florida State All-American and current Colorado head coach Deion Sanders.
On the field, Florida has an unsettled quarterback situation. Senior Graham Marsh and highly touted freshman DJ Lagway were rotated each possession against Florida A&M. Napier said this week that he would play both players against Mississippi State (1-2). The school announced that they will not release an official depth chart for the rest of the season, prompting conjecture that Lagway could get the start on Saturday.
The Gators’ issues aren’t simply at quarterback. The offensive line has also struggled. Against Miami and Texas A&M, the Florida offense converted just three of 18 third-down chances.
Defensively, Florida has surrendered 74 points in two losses. Against Miami, the Gators gave up 385 yards passing. Against Texas A&M they surrendered 310 rushing yards.
Mississippi State started the season with a 56-7 win over Eastern Kentucky, but losses to Arizona State and Toledo followed. Saturday’s game serves as the SEC opener for the Bulldogs. They are scheduled to travel to No. 1 Texas next week.
The Bulldogs have been led by wide receiver Kevin Coleman Jr., who has 16 receptions for 268 yards and three touchdowns. Quarterback Blake Shapen has thrown seven touchdowns and one interception, but has been sacked 10 times in three games.
Florida is listed as a 6-point favorite in the game. A win would reduce some pressure on Napier for the time being. A loss might lead to immediate changes.
Napier knows the pressure he is under and is doing everything in his power to keep the locker room together. As losses mount, that task becomes increasingly difficult.
“Responsibility, accountability is the only option here,” Napier said this week. “The most important thing, and I told the players after the game Saturday, is that they stick together. We can’t control what is said on the outside or done on the outside. We can control what is said within the walls.”
