Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics — 10.17.24

Good Thursday morning.

Abortion rights will be on the ballot in November, and a prominent anti-Trump group says the Kamala Harris campaign is in solid position with a small, but important, bloc of pro-choice voters.

The Lincoln Project says so-called “Dobbs Dads” — men concerned about how the landmark SCOTUS abortion rights decision could affect the women in their lives — believe the Vice President is the better option at the top of the ticket.

While White voters are the bedrock of Donald Trump’s voter base, LP cited recent polling from Marist showing college-educated white men, by a 20-point margin, are against sending the Republican nominee back to the White House.

The Lincoln Project said it’s going to spend the final three weeks ahead of Election Day making sure abortion rights are top-of-mind among these “persuadable voters.”

“The Lincoln Project has been aggressive from the start at identifying these voters as persuadable due to the fall of Roe v. Wade and the ensuing extremist abortion bans around the country. LP’s efforts take on two tracks: women speaking to their fathers and the men in their lives about their fears, and secondly, an appeal to men as protectors,” the group said in a memo.

LP has been airing creative on both fronts, with one ad, “Daisy,” featuring a daughter begging her father to choose Harris over Trump as she is “literally dying from a lack of health care.”

LP added, “For the men as protector appeal, we have ‘State Lines,’ where a father and his teenage daughter are pulled over and arrested while driving to another state to access reproductive care. The father is powerless to help his daughter.”

Both ads are backed by digital ad buys in swing states, with the group adding the two spots have some of the highest engagement stats of any ads the Lincoln Project has produced since its founding early on in the Trump era.

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Spotted — Latino Americans for Trump leader Carlos Trujillo at a gathering of an exclusive group of Latin American leaders briefing Trump before the Univision town hall. Trujillo, the former Ambassador to the Organization of American States (OAS), focused on Latin American policy and how another Trump presidency will “end the crisis at the border and restore America’s position around the world.”

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The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee announced plans to target seven Florida districts.

The group will provide resources to state Rep. Tom Keen, an Orlando Democrat defending the House District 35 seat he won earlier this year. The organization also wants to help six Democrats flip Republican-held seats, including Senate District 3 candidate Daryl Parks and House candidates Sarah Henry in House District 38, Leonard Spencer in House District 45, María Revelles in House District 47, Jay Shooster in House District 91 and Joe Saunders in House District 108.

The national group plans to direct resources at 180 battleground seats nationwide in state government legislative chambers, with the seven Spotlight seats making up about 4% of its targeted races.

“GOP leadership in the Florida Legislature has become notorious for prioritizing divisive culture wars instead of solving real problems,” said Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee President Heather Williams.

The organization made clear it wants to break a Republican supermajority Democrats feel have pushed an agenda out-of-step with Sunshine State voters.

“The Republican trifecta has advanced a MAGA agenda that undermines our freedoms and in response, these dynamic Florida Democrats are stepping up to challenge GOP dominance,” Williams said.

“With a focus on the issues that matter most, these candidates are standing up to Republicans’ attacks on freedoms and democracy. By winning these races and chipping away at entrenched Republican power, we can help state Democrats lead Florida to a brighter future.”

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Attorney Jason Winn is joining the lobbying team at Lewis Longman & Walker, the firm announced this week.

Winn, who comes aboard as a Senior Attorney, has a background in administrative, civil, legislative, and governmental affairs. Highlights on the resume include representing local governments and health care workers in licensure defense, employment, compliance with Executive Orders and newly enacted Florida legislation.

The Nova Southeastern law graduate has served as general counsel for the Florida Osteopathic Medical Association, Florida Podiatric Medical Association, Florida Prescription Drug Monitoring Program Foundation, the Sheriff’s Offices in Gadsden and Wakulla, and the Florida Hearing Society, where he also holds the position of Executive Director.

Winn is an accomplished speaker who frequently lectures across Florida on the laws and rules impacting health care practitioners. He also volunteers his legal services at the Wakulla County Senior Citizens Center and Legal Services of North Florida.

“We are thrilled to welcome Jason to our team,” said Lori Killinger, LLW’s Executive Shareholder and Chair of the firm’s Legislative, Lobbying and Governmental Affairs Practice Group. “His deep understanding of the legal landscape, especially in the areas of administrative law and government relations, will be an invaluable asset to our firm and our clients.”

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🗳 — My case for Torrie Jasuwan: While Florida Politics doesn’t typically offer endorsements, I’m making an exception this year. Given the pain in my hometown following back-to-back hurricanes, it’s important to have elected officials ready to put in the work to recover. Torrie is that person. I hope others will join me in endorsing her for St. Pete City Council, District 3. Read more about my rationale (and some insights — not endorsements — into three other critical local races) here.

— SITUATIONAL AWARENESS —

Tweet, tweet:

—@MarcACaputo: At Trump’s Univision town hall in Miami, an AZ voter born in Mexico asks, “Do you really believe that [Haitians] are eating the people’s pets?” Trump: I was just repeating “what was reported … All I do is report” [A sign the issue has stuck with swing state voters].

—@WiltonSimpson: The audacity of Donna Deegan to reduce the atrocities of the Holocaust to a political cheap shot is disgusting and beneath people of Jacksonville. The taxpayers footing the bill on her two-week junket to London sent her there to bring back jobs, not lie about President Trump.

—@TFreemanJax: The Sheriff is right. Mayor Deegan’s comments are deeply troubling. Lying about President Trump’s policies, particularly while representing Jacksonville overseas on a taxpayer-funded trip, is incredibly disappointing. I hope @DonnaDeegan will apologize and issue a retraction.

Tweet, tweet:

—@Daniel_PerezFL: It’s unacceptable that Miami City Commissioners are lining their own pockets at the expense of hardworking residents. This decision prioritizes personal gain over our community’s needs. The Commission must ensure tax dollars serve Miami’s people, not lavish retirement packages.

—@Rodger: You’re telling me there’s a whole company named “Panda Express,” and when it’s time to actually transport and deliver pandas another company does it

Tweet, tweet:

— DAYS UNTIL —

Lin-Manuel Miranda’s concept album based on the cult movie ‘The Warriors’ drops – 1; Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour stops in Miami – 1; 2024 Florida Chamber Annual Meeting & Future of Florida Forum – 4; Harris‘ CNN town hall in Pennsylvania — 6; Florida TaxWatch’s 45th Annual Meeting – 13; 2024 Presidential Election – 19; second half of Yellowstone season five premieres – 20; USF stadium groundbreaking — 22; Taylor Sheridan’s ‘Landman’ premieres – 29; Legislature’s 2025 Organizational Session – 35; Las Vegas Grand Prix – 35; ‘Moana 2’ premieres – 41; ‘Chef’s Table’ returns to Netflix — 41; 2024 Florida Chamber Annual Insurance Summit begins – 47; Florida Chamber 2024 Florida Transportation, Growth & Infrastructure Solution Summit — 47; MLS Cup 2024 – 51; Army-Navy game — 58; ‘Mufasa: The Lion King’ premieres – 64; College Football Playoff begins – 66; ‘Squid Game’ season 2 premieres – 70; Fiesta, Peach, Rose & Sugar Bowls – 76; Orange Bowl – 84; ‘Severance’ season two debuts – 99; Super Bowl LIX — 115; ‘Captain America: Brave New World’ premieres – 127; the 2025 Oscars – 136; Florida’s 2025 Legislative Session begins – 138; Tampa Bay Rays season opener — 161; 2025 Session ends – 197; ‘Thunderbolts’ premieres – 197; ‘Fantastic Four – First Steps’ premieres – 281; ‘Blade’ reboot premieres – 391; ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ premieres – 428; ‘Avengers 5’ premieres – 565; Untitled ‘Star Wars’ movie premieres – 582; FIFA World Cup 26™ final – 603; FIFA World Cup 26™ final match – 641; ‘The Batman 2’ premieres – 720; Another untitled ‘Star Wars’ movie premieres – 793; ‘Avengers: Secret Wars’ premieres – 933; 2028 Los Angeles Olympics Opening Ceremony — 1,366; ‘Avatar 4’ premieres – 1,892; ‘Avatar 5’ premieres – 2,613.

— TOP STORY —

“Ron DeSantis may attack TV stations airing pro-abortion ads” via Jason Garcia of Seeking Rents — Records show DeSantis’ Department of Health signed contracts last week with two law firms hired to represent the state agency regarding “false political advertisements under chapters 381 and 386.”

Those are the same sections of state law that the Health Department cited earlier this month when it sent letters to TV stations across Florida threatening to criminally prosecute them unless the stations took down an ad produced by Floridians Protecting Freedom, the group sponsoring Amendment 4.

Amendment 4 is the proposed constitutional amendment on the November ballot that would — if approved by 60 percent of Florida voters — end a statewide abortion ban that DeSantis signed into law last year, just before launching his failed campaign for President.

But Amendment 4 supporters are fighting back: Floridians Protecting Freedom on Wednesday filed a federal lawsuit accusing the DeSantis administration of violating the organization’s First Amendment rights to free speech by engaging in a “deeply disturbing example of constitutional coercion” against the TV stations airing the group’s ads.

The suit, filed in the district court for North Florida, asks the court to forbid the Department of Health from taking any action against broadcasters.

“The election is just three weeks away, and FPF is running and intends to continue running television advertisements and to engage in other political speech advocating for the passage of Amendment 4 and calling attention to the dangerous consequences of current Florida law on women’s rights and health,” lawyers for Floridians Protecting Freedom wrote in the complaint.

Florida taxpayers will pay attorneys from the two firms up to $750 an hour — as much as $1.5 million.

—“Florida government ramps up anti-abortion campaign. Courts have declined to intervene.” via Ana Ceballos of the Miami Herald

— RECOVERY —

“Florida rolls out emergency loans for small businesses hit by Hurricane Milton” via Skyler Shepard of CBS 12 — In the wake of Milton’s devastation, the State of Florida has introduced the Small Business Emergency Bridge Loan Program to support affected small businesses. According to Florida Commerce, this initiative provides short-term, zero-interest loans designed to offer immediate financial relief, helping businesses stay afloat until they can secure long-term recovery funding. The Florida Small Business Emergency Bridge Loan Program will be a lifeline for businesses that have suffered economic injury or physical damage due to Milton. Funded by the State of Florida, these loans are not grants and must be repaid. However, businesses can use long-term financial resources, such as U.S. Small Business Administration economic injury disaster loans, to repay the bridge loans.

“Four lessons Milton taught Tampa Bay” via Kirby Wilson of the Tampa Bay Times — Each major hurricane that hits Florida brings devastation and leaves lessons. Andrew, in 1992, made state officials ask hard questions about Florida’s insurance market. Ian in 2022 was a cautionary tale about the power of storm surges. Less than a month ago, Hurricane Helene taught that there’s danger even for those outside the cone of uncertainty. With Milton almost one week in the rearview mirror, its lessons are coming into focus. When you’re told to leave, leave. Hurricanes can flood unexpected areas. Don’t forget about tornadoes. Storm damage may prompt stronger rebuilding — but not always.

“Barrier island recovery efforts underway; Residents search through rubble of lost homes” via Corey Arwood of Treasure Coast Newspapers — Barrier island residents worked to salvage and secure their belongings from roofless, partially collapsed homes, whose interiors showed the devastation of wind and water damage following tornadoes that carved through the Indian River County ahead of Milton. Hours before the Category 3 hurricane made landfall across the state in Siesta Key, a deadly tornado registering at times as EF-1, EF-2 and EF-3 tore a 500-yard-wide path of destruction nearly 21 miles from Fort Pierce to Vero Beach in under 30 minutes. Nearly a week later, evidence of the destruction is still apparent among remains of homes and damaged buildings in Bethel Creek, an area south of Bahia Mar Road and west of State Road A1A.

“Insurance ‘nightmare’ unfolds for Florida homeowners after back-to-back hurricanes” via Rob Wile of NBC News — Bridgette Bello thought she’d taken proper precautions to protect against Florida’s notorious hurricanes, having purchased flood insurance as well as a separate hurricane-specific policy in addition to her regular homeowners coverage. Yet nearly two weeks after Helene hit — and even before Milton had arrived — what Bello, 54, describes as an insurance “nightmare” has only begun. She said she already faces delays and denials on her damage claims. “We did everything we were supposed to do,” said Bello, who lives near the barrier island Madeira Beach community outside of Tampa. “We did everything to protect ourselves and protect our home.” Fresh off the one-two punch of Helene and Milton, hurricane victims in Florida — even those with insurance — face a challenging recovery.

“In flooded Glen Eagles, DeLand residents embark on long road to recovery from Milton” via Jim Abbott of the Daytona Beach News-Journal — Nearly a week after police and firefighters rescued Sharon and John Felgate amid roughly two feet of flooding from Milton, the couple returned to their home just inside the entrance of Glen Eagles Villas along still impassable Orange Camp Road. “John has a pair of high-wading boots, and there’s a path along the grass where we can get to the front door,” said Sharon, 75, who watched from the higher ground as her husband retrieved personal belongings left behind in the frantic escape from the storm that left many homes in the subdivision under at least some amount of water. “There’s some jewelry that I left behind,” she said.

“‘I’m getting the hell out of here’: Milton’s wrath is too much for some North Lakeland residents” via Gary White of the Lakeland Ledger — George Wiltshire has had enough of living in Florida. With help from relatives, Wiltshire was hauling all his possessions out of his single-wide unit Tuesday morning at Pine Lake Mobile Home Park in North Lakeland. Some items, such as a washing machine and a lawnmower, went on a trailer, but much of the material lay along the curb, mere refuse to be carried to a landfill. “I’m getting the hell out of here,” said Wiltshire, 62. Wiltshire, who has lived in Pine Lake for seven years, plans to move to Kansas next week to join his nephew, Jacob Gullett, who was helping him clear out the mobile home Tuesday morning. Wiltshire described seeing the park littered with roof covers blown off units during the storm. One carport was wrapped around a power pole, Gullett said.

“Port Orange residents pack City Council meeting to demand action after Milton flooding” via Brenno Carillo of the Daytona Beach News-Journal — More than 100 Port Orange residents packed City Hall to voice their frustration — even calling for officials to resign — over what several described as devastating flooding to their homes following last week’s Milton. Those who spoke at the City Council meeting relayed several inches of intruding water in their homes, the costs they now have to bear, concerns over what many described as overdevelopment in the city and other issues. Cheered on by fellow residents, some questioned the city’s efforts to prevent flooding. In contrast, others called on their representatives to devise efficient solutions, and others still called on officials to resign.

“Federal funding fix for Pinellas beach woes could be in the works” via Henry Queen of the Tampa Bay Business Journal — President Joe Biden recently visited St. Pete Beach to survey the damage after Milton, and Pinellas County Commission Chair Kathleen Peters said the President and his team expressed a desire to help fix the county’s long-standing sand shortage. According to preliminary estimates, the problem was exacerbated by Helene and Milton, which moved approximately 1 million cubic yards of sand. An inevitable post-hurricane drop in bed tax revenue will also reduce the county’s ability to pay for renourishment. For years, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has refused to help fund renourishment due to a lack of easements from property owners.

“Removal process begins at collapsed tower crane site” via Mark Parker of the St. Pete Catalyst — Multiple stakeholders have begun the extensive process of extracting a massive tower crane wedged into an adjacent office building in downtown St. Petersburg. A sizable section of a 500-foot-tall crane at the Residences at 400 Central construction site flew into a neighboring building at 490 1st Ave. S. as Milton’s gusts topped 100 mph. The equipment toppled into the facility that houses the Tampa Bay Times and bears the law firm Johnson and Pope’s signage. Chick Fagan, general manager for Liberty Equipment, said a removal crane arrived at the scene and would “be operational by the end of the day.”

“Dunedin begins the ‘long haul’ to recovery — again” via Tom Germond of the Tampa Bay Times — City Commissioner Moe Freaney said her neighbors had a margarita party in the middle of a street near where she lives on the Friday night after Milton struck Dunedin. It was part of the healing. Many people and many parts of the community have stepped up for those who have been the most affected, Freaney said at the Commission’s Tuesday meeting. “It could have been so much worse.”

— 2024 — PRESIDENTIAL —

“In contentious Fox News interview, Kamala Harris spars with anchor” via Nicholas Nehamas and Michael Gold of The New York Times — Harris sat for a contentious interview on Fox News on Wednesday evening in which the anchor, Bret Baier, repeatedly interrupted her and pressed her on Trump’s talking points. Baier challenged Harris on the border, on her willingness to spend taxpayer dollars on gender-transition surgery for prison inmates, and on whether she could draw any differences between the Biden administration and how she would govern. “My presidency will not be a continuation of Joe Biden’s presidency,” Harris said, in one of her most explicit efforts yet to put distance between herself and Biden.

“Why an interview on Fox News made sense for Harris” via Adam Nagourney of The New York Times — Harris’ interview with Fox News’s chief political anchor, Baier, is, by any measure, a risk for her and a test of her ability to handle a potentially contentious interview in an unfriendly setting. Democrat after Democrat has concluded that there is more to gain than to lose in reaching out to Fox’s audience. “We very much think that bringing our message to audiences who might not agree with you on every issue is a very important thing to do,” said Manuel Bonder, the Press Secretary for Gov. Josh Shapiro, the Democrat from Pennsylvania who regularly appears on Fox shows and was on Harris’ shortlist to be her running mate.

“Harris and Donald Trump court Fox News audience, with sharply different strategies” via Tarini Parti and Natalie Andrews of The Wall Street Journal — Harris and Trump both courted Fox News viewers Wednesday, with Harris making a play for undecided voters in a combative interview and Trump trying to improve his standing with women in a friendly environment. Although they appeared on the same network, the appearances showed their divergent media and electoral strategies. Harris directed her pitch toward Republicans and independents who might be frustrated by Biden’s handling of the economy and the border but have reservations about giving Trump another term. Trump, who has largely been sticking to conservative media, did a town hall hosted by Fox News’s Harris Faulkner in Georgia before an audience of supportive women. Trump has emphasized maximizing turnout among his base voters. He has tried to make inroads with Black and Latino voters but hasn’t moderated his views to appeal to the center.

“Trump faces tough questions from Hispanic voters, but largely defends of dodges” via Michael Gold and Jazmine Ulloa of The New York Times — Halfway through a town hall hosted by Univision on Wednesday, Ramiro Gonzalez stood in front of Trump and said he had lost his support. Gonzalez, 56, a self-described Republican, said he was alarmed when a mob of Trump’s supporters stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. He did not like Trump’s leadership during the coronavirus pandemic and was dismayed by the chorus of former Trump administration officials who no longer support him. “I want to give you the opportunity to try to win back my vote,” Gonzalez, of Tampa, said. Trump declined to take it. Trump insisted the crowds who came to Washington “didn’t come because of me, they came because of the election,” ignoring his role in stoking election denialism.

“Trump calls himself ‘father of IVF,’ doubles down on ‘enemy within’ remarks in town hall” via Kelsey Walsh, Soo Rin Kim, and Lalee Ibssa of ABC News — Trump sat down with Fox News’ Faulkner on Tuesday night in front of an all-female audience in Cummings, Georgia, where he addressed several issues aimed at appealing to women voters including the child tax credit, the economy and reproductive rights — calling himself the “father of IVF.” Speaking in front of a friendly audience of more than 100 women of all ages, Trump attempted to court suburban women in Georgia’s Forsyth County — a reliably red county where Democrats have made gains in recent years. Recently, Trump has worked to connect with women voters — the largest voting bloc in the 2024 Election — by suggesting they’ll be “safer” under a Trump administration, that he will be a “protector” of women, and they “will no longer be thinking about abortion” if he wins the White House.

“Trump’s erratic endgame: Dark threats, personal insults and some dancing” via Marianne LeVine, Maeve Reston and Meryl Kornfield of The Washington Post — Trump was meandering through an interview in which he would not directly say whether he would allow a peaceful transfer of power after the election and later complained about Fox News having a Harris aide on air. The previous evening, he had hosted an unusual town hall (“It was amazing!”) that started with long-winded answers to friendly questions and ended with him swaying and bopping to music for 39 minutes. With three weeks left until Election Day, Trump is running an unorthodox, freewheeling campaign, directing threats and insults at a broad mix of people and institutions, pushing his travels deeper into Democratic states where nonpartisan analysts do not regard him as competitive, and wielding darkening rhetoric about undocumented immigrants and personal attacks against Harris at campaign events where he often veers off-script and has mixed up words.

“Trump wants young voters, but he’s nowhere to be seen on Snapchat” via Nicholas Nehamas and Shane Goldmacher of The New York Times — Trump has made courting younger voters — and younger men in particular — a public pillar of his 2024 campaign. But he is conspicuously absent from one platform where they gather in large numbers. Trump has not bought a single advertisement on Snapchat, effectively ceding the popular digital messaging platform to Harris, whose campaign has spent more than $5.3 million on ads there. Harris has used the uncontested space to highlight Trump’s anti-abortion record and to portray herself as a candidate for the future. Several ads are scored to the pounding rhythms of her theme song, Beyoncé’s anthem “Freedom.” Others are framed as “back-to-school assignments,” urging college-aged voters to do their homework on Trump’s right-wing policies.

“Elon Musk gives $75M to his own America PAC in push to elect Trump” via Clara Ence Morse and Maegan Vazquez of The Washington Post — Musk gave nearly $75 million to the political action committee he created to campaign for Trump, marking his latest contribution in support of the former President in the final stretch of the campaign. America PAC has emerged as a significant player in Trump’s re-election bid, with the committee launching this Spring with early support from wealthy donors, including former Tesla director Antonio Gracias, Palantir co-founder and Austin-based tech investor Joe Lonsdale, and Sequoia Capital investor Shaun Maguire.

“Republicans tell Trump that Musk’s Super PAC is blowing it” via Asawin Suebsang, Miles Klee, and Andrew Perez of Rolling Stone — Trump has largely outsourced his 2024 campaign’s get-out-the-vote operation to a Super PAC bankrolled and directed by Musk, the world’s richest man — and one of its most awkward. In recent weeks, several Republican operatives and other figures in the national party have bluntly and directly informed Trump they fear Musk’s organization is falling down on the job of mobilizing voters to cast their ballots for the Republican nominee. These close Trump allies have told him that they are worried that America PAC, an outside group that Musk created to boost turnout for Trump, is failing in critical battleground states that are likely to be won by razor-thin margins, with only weeks left to go before Election Day. Some partly blame, including when they’ve spoken to Trump, the group’s lead strategists, who are linked to the failed 2024 Primary run of DeSantis.

“A pro-Trump ad looks to turn Harris’ record as a prosecutor against her” via Jonathan Swan of The New York Times — The ad opens with a visual juxtaposition: In the center of the screen, we see a younger Harris as San Francisco’s District Attorney. To the left, we see the mug shot of Devaughndre Broussard, who was prosecuted by Harris’ office and convicted of assaulting and robbing a transit passenger but was sentenced to probation; a year later, he confessed to killing a newspaper editor with a shotgun. A narrator’s deep voice cuts in, along with big all-caps headlines, as photos of Harris as a prosecutor flash by: “Liberal Kamala Harris let killers go free.” “Kamala Harris put criminals first.” Next, a bouquet of roses is shown atop a polished black coffin.

To watch the ad, please click the image below:

 

“‘Pennsylvania is such a mess’: Inside Team Harris’ unusual levels of finger-pointing” via Holly Otterbein and Elena Schneider of POLITICO — Top Democrats in Pennsylvania are worried Harris’ operation is being poorly run in the nation’s biggest battleground state. They say some Harris aides lack relationships with crucial party figures, particularly in Philadelphia and its suburbs. They complain they have been left out of events and surrogates haven’t been deployed effectively. And they’ve urged Harris staff in private meetings to do more to turn out voters of color. Some are even pointing fingers at Harris’ Pennsylvania Campaign Manager, Nikki Lu, who they say lacks deep knowledge of Philadelphia, where the Vice President must drive up voter turnout to win.

“Most of ed America’s ‘blue dots’ can’t help Harris win. But this one might.” via Kara Voght of The Washington Post — You might have heard of Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. How it gets its own vote in the Electoral College. How that vote used to go reliably red in presidential contests but has twice this century gone for the Democrat and looks like it may do so again this year. How, among the likely Electoral College outcomes, there’s a plausible scenario in which Harris wins the Rust Belt battlegrounds and Trump wins the Sun Belt ones — in which case that single vote from the residents of Omaha and its suburbs would break a tie between the candidates and determine the future of America. You may have also heard about how Trump and his allies tried to head off this scenario by asking local Republicans to legislate the district’s electoral vote out of existence. They barely failed, but the episode underscores the paradox of this three-decade political science experiment: The more the dot matters, the more endangered it becomes.

“Project 2025 ex-director condemns Heritage president’s ‘violent rhetoric’” via Isaac Arnsdorf of The Washington Post — The former director of the right-wing policy and personnel blueprint known as Project 2025 is condemning what he sees as “violent rhetoric” from Heritage Foundation President Kevin Roberts and calling on Vance to retract the foreword he wrote for Roberts’s book. “If we’re going to ask the left to tone it down, we have to do our part as well,” Paul Dans, who led Project 2025 until July, said in an interview. “There’s no place for this sort of violent rhetoric and bellicose taunting, especially in light of the fact that President Trump has now been subject to not one but two assassination attempts.”

“Can Trump use military against ‘enemy from within’? Here’s what Insurrection Act says” via Mitchell Willetts of the Miami Herald — Trump proposed using the U.S. Military or National Guard against “radical left lunatics” on Election Day and those he’s dubbed the “enemy from within” if needed, but can he actually do that? Trump’s comments came during an Oct. 13 interview on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures,” saying that he would bring military force to bear on American soil to quell Election Day chaos. “It should be very easily handled by, if necessary, by National Guard and if really necessary, by the military,” he said. Trump also spoke about threats facing the country and that he was less worried about foreign or outside actors than he is the “enemy from within.” Harris seized on Trump’s comments, saying during an Oct. 14 rally in Erie, Pennsylvania, that he’s becoming “increasingly unstable and unhinged.”

“The man who’s sure that Harris will win” via Gilad Edelman of The Atlantic — If you follow politics, you can hardly escape Allan Lichtman, the American University history professor known for correctly forecasting the victor of all but one presidential election since 1984. In an era of statistically complex, probabilistic election models, Lichtman is a throwback. He bases his predictions not on polls but rather on the answers to a set of 13 true-or-false questions, which he calls “keys,” which, in 2016, signaled Trump’s victory when the polls said otherwise. Each of the 13 keys can be defined as a true-or-false statement. If eight or more of them are true, the incumbent-party candidate will win; seven or fewer, and they will lose. By Lichtman’s account, the keys predict the popular vote winner, not the state-by-state results. However, Trump lost the popular vote by two percentage points, eking out an Electoral College victory by fewer than 80,000 votes in three swing states. Americans love a prediction. We crave certainty. This makes the life of a successful predictor attractive, as Lichtman, who has achieved some measure of fame, can attest. But a professional forecaster is always one bad call away from irrelevance.

— 2024 — FLORIDA —

“When does early voting begin in Florida? Most counties start Monday, Oct. 21. Here’s the list” via C.A. Bridges of USA Today Network — Early voting for the Nov. 5 General Election has already started in 13 states this week, and the battleground state Georgia had a record turnout on its first day. Florida voters have already started sending their vote-by-mail ballots, but when can they vote in person? By law, early voting must be offered at least 10 days before the election, but some counties provide more days. In 49 counties in Florida, you can cast your vote as early as Monday, Oct. 21. Early voting, either in person or by mail, has become increasingly popular in the U.S., with nearly 1 in 7 voters casting their ballots ahead of Election Day in 2020.

“A TV station stopped playing pro-abortion rights ads after state’s threats, lawsuit says” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics — One Fort Myers TV station acquiesced and stopped playing pro-abortion rights ads after a Department of Health (DOH) lawyer threatened Florida TV stations with criminal prosecution. It’s a revelation in a new First Amendment lawsuit as the political committee supporting the Amendment 4 abortion rights initiative sued a pair of state officials Wednesday in federal court. Floridians Protecting Freedom (FPF) is currently negotiating with CBS affiliate WINK-TV to get the ads back on air. Still, representatives for the PC say it has lost valuable time to reach voters in that market with the election just three weeks away. FPF is suing Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo, the head of DOH, and John Wilson, the Department’s former General Counsel who wrote the letters, in the U.S. District Court’s Tallahassee Division.

“Is Gen Z the key to passing Florida’s abortion amendment?” via Joe Mario Pedersen of Central Florida Public Media — Cierra Huthnance came running over to a group of “Vote Yes on 4” volunteers when she heard they were collecting pledges to vote for Amendment 4. It would enshrine abortion protections into the Florida Constitution should it get at least 60% of the vote in the November General Election. “Oh yeah, sign me up,” said Huthnance, an 18-year-old University of Central Florida student. “Nobody should have the right to control somebody’s body like that.” The college first-year student wasn’t old enough to vote in the Primary and will cast her vote for the first time in November. As for her primary concerns, Huthnance said abortion rights are at the top of the list.

New Smart & Safe Florida ads say recreational pot will be implemented the ‘right way’ — The committee backing Amendment 3 is rolling out ads featuring Republican Sen. Joe Gruters, former President Trump voicing support for legalizing recreational marijuana and assuring voters the policy will be implemented the “right way” if the ballot amendment earns voter approval next month. In the ad, Gruters says while Florida “is the freest state in America, we still have outdated marijuana laws obstructing that freedom. Amendment 3 would give adults back that freedom and give Florida a chance to legalize marijuana responsibly.” The ad with Trump hits similar beats and includes the GOP presidential nominee’s quote that legalization has “gotta be done in a very concerted, lawful way. The way they’re doing it in Florida, it’s going to be very good.”

To watch one of the ads, please click the image below:

 

“Never Trump: Former Florida GOP leaders come out against former President” via John Kennedy of USA Today Network — Leaders who helped build Florida’s Republican dominance over the past three decades stepped forward to announce they’re supporting Harris. This move, they say, could inspire other GOP loyalists to break ranks. John “Mac” Stipanovich, a former Florida campaign director for President Ronald Reagan and campaign manager and chief-of-staff for Gov. Bob Martinez, was joined at a Harris campaign event in Tallahassee by former state Comptroller Bob Milligan, a Republican elected to two terms on the state Cabinet. Both men said they’d already cast ballots for Harris.

“Super PAC that backed DeSantis for President transfers leftover cash to his renamed committee” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — A pro-DeSantis super PAC that served as the primary financial support engine for the Governor’s failed bid for President has given most of its leftover cash to his re-christened federal war chest. The super PAC “Never Back Down” just reported that it donated just over $5.25 million in early August to Restore Our Nation (RON PAC), which previously operated under the name Ron DeSantis for President. Since the transfer, RON PAC has ramped up its fundraising texts, emails and social media posts. Some have included messages supporting the presidential campaign of DeSantis’ on-again/off-again ally, Trump. Others have touted the candidacy of Tim Sheehy, who is running to supplant Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Tester in Montana.

— 2024 — DOWN-BALLOT 1 —

“Whitney Fox outraises Anna Paulina Luna in third quarter, nears incumbent in cash” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — Fox over the last quarter said she outraised U.S. Rep. Luna. That severely cut into the Republican incumbent’s cash-on-hand advantage in one of Florida’s hottest congressional races. Luna, a St. Petersburg Republican, raised more than $952,000 over the third quarter, including more than $285,000 before the end of July and another nearly $666,000 in August and September. Fox, meanwhile, collected almost $1.08 million over the three months, including nearly $101,000 in July before she won the Democratic nomination in August and then more than $977,000 in August and September. That leaves Luna with a slim advantage in terms of money in the bank.

“María Elvira Salazar nears $3M raised to defend her CD 27 seat” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — By now, Republican U.S. Rep. Salazar has more than likely crossed the $3 million mark in fundraising to defend her seat representing Florida’s 27th Congressional District. In the last reporting period, from Aug. 1 to Sept. 30, Salazar’s campaign reported raising $415,000, bringing her total haul this cycle to $2.98 million. She also spent $181,500, a small portion of the $1.2 million she’s raised since she won re-election by a landslide two years ago. Heading into October, she had $1.9 million left — roughly 18 times the sum held by her Democratic challenger, Miami-Dade School Board member Lucia Báez-Geller.

“Gayle Harrell draws novice Democrat challenger in her final re-election race” via Melissa E. Holsman of Treasure Coast Newspapers — Harrell may be running her last Senate race before hitting term limits, but to keep her Senate District 31 seat, the 81-year-old veteran lawmaker must vanquish her 26-year-old Democrat challenger in November, state records show. Harrell, of Stuart, who has served in the Senate since 2018, will be on the Nov. 5 ballot with Aaron James Hawkins, a Stuart native who filed election papers on March 28 to run for SD 31. The district consists of Martin County and portions of Palm Beach and St. Lucie counties. “This is my last hurrah, my last run,” said Harrell, who served 16 years as a Representative.

— 2024 — DOWN-BALLOT 2 —

“Party support for María Revelles overshadows Paula Stark’s cash advantage” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — Rep. Stark holds a cash advantage over Democrat Revelles as Stark seeks re-election. But the challenger has enjoyed far more party support than the Republican incumbent in House District 47. Through Oct. 4, Stark has raised upward of $64,000. She has spent more than half that and closed the period with less than $34,000 in her campaign account to defend her battleground seat. Revelles, who narrowly won a three-person Democratic Primary in August, has raised north of $45,000. She had just over $16,000 in the bank at the close of the last reporting period. However, the Friends of María Revelles political committee, which faces no caps on donations, has been more active. The political committee raised nearly $74,000 and has increased spending since the Primary. It closed the period with almost $11,000 in the bank.

“Fiona McFarland’s political committee cash overshadows Derek Reich’s fundraising success” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — Reich has narrowly outraised state Rep. McFarland via their respective candidate accounts. But the Republican incumbent still holds a massive cash advantage thanks to a political committee with six figures in the bank. Reich, an Osprey Democrat running with no support from the state party, has managed to raise nearly $221,000 for a rematch with McFarland. By comparison, the Sarasota Republican raised about $217,000 through her candidate account as she seeks a third term in arguably the only battleground legislative seat in Southwest Florida. Notably, Reich also has spent far more, and as of Oct. 4 had less than $22,000 in cash-on-hand compared to McFarland’s nearly $96,000. But the full cash advantage for the incumbent comes into view by looking at committee fundraising.

“Direct mail roundup: In HD 113 GOP incumbent depicted as a ‘Blue Dog Progressive’” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — A new political committee with a name that suggests it has Democratic leanings is sending a mailer to Miami-Dade County homes touting incumbent Rep. Vicki Lopez’s bona fides as a champion for women’s reproductive rights. The message in and of itself isn’t untruthful. Lopez voted against Florida’s six-week abortion ban in 2023. However, the mailer from a group called Florida Blue Dog Progressives targeting Democrats in House District 113 omits a key detail: Lopez is a Republican, though you wouldn’t know by reading the mailer’s text. “Vicki Lopez trusts women and doctors on their health care!” the mailer reads.

“Alexcia Cox for State Attorney returns to ARC Florida, Justice on The Ballot” via Mike Magnoli of CBS 12 — Prosecutor Cox wants to step up and become State Attorney in Palm Beach County. Cox is already working in the office and is asking voters to pick her to replace the outgoing Dave Aronberg. Cox is up against Republican Sam Stern and NPA candidate Adam Farkas. In August, Cox appeared on ARC Florida for an introduction, and today, she returned to the set for a discussion of local current events that touch the State Attorney’s Office.

Monique Worrell touts slate of lawmaker endorsements — Suspended State Attorney Worrell’s campaign to reclaim her office picked up endorsements from eight state lawmakers. The list includes Sen. Victor Torres, Senator-elect Carlos Guillermo Smith and Reps. Kristen Arrington, Lavon Bracy Davis, Anna Eskamani, Ashley Gantt, Keen, and Johanna Lopez. “She has the experience we need to bring forward policies that are both smart and tough on crime, which is why voters overwhelmingly chose her to be our State Attorney in 2020. We need to send Monique back to finish the job and ensure that our community can move forward with the experienced leadership we need in the State Attorney’s office,” Torres said in a prepared statement.

“Dot Inman-Johnson attack ad against Richardson prompts cease-and-desist letter from FAMU” via Jeff Burlew of the Tallahassee Democrat — Florida A&M University sent City Commission candidate Inman-Johnson a cease-and-desist email demanding she pull a campaign commercial that includes images of university trademarks and employees during “Frenchtown Rising” events. The ad in question, a one-minute spot circulating on social media, features K Lennorris Barber, executive director of the Mt. Olive Housing and Community Development Corp, criticizing City Commissioner Curtis Richardson, whom Inman-Johnson is trying to unseat in the Nov. 5 General Election. David Self II, associate general counsel for FAMU, asked Inman-Johnson in a Thursday email to “please immediately recall this advertisement and all such campaign materials” and to discontinue use of the FAMU materials in the campaign.

— STATEWIDE —

“Court delivers blow to lawsuit seeking to overturn lab-grown meat ban, Wilton Simpson celebrates” via Amber Jo Cooper of Florida’s Voice — Florida’s Northern District Court denied a motion for a preliminary injunction in a lawsuit filed against the state over the ban on lab-grown meat. The plaintiff in the case is Upside Foods, a company that develops and produces cultivated meat. Chief United States District Judge Mark Walker denied the motion in an order on Oct. 11. The ban on lab-grown meat will continue as the lawsuit progresses through the court system. The legislation was signed in May 2024 and bans the manufacture and sale of lab-grown meat in Florida.

“Hurricane center lowers chances for approaching Atlantic system to develop” via Richard Tribou of the Orlando Sentinel — The National Hurricane Center lowered its outlook Wednesday that an Atlantic system approaching the Caribbean will develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm, while also keeping tabs on a second system already in the Caribbean. The broad area of low pressure in the central tropical Atlantic has become less defined since Tuesday. “Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands remain disorganized,” forecasters said. “This system is forecast to move generally westward to west-northwestward, and environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual development late this week and into the weekend. A tropical depression could form as the system moves near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday, then near the Greater Antilles over the weekend.” The NHC gives it a 30% chance to develop in two days and 40% in the next seven. That’s down from the 60% it had forecast earlier in the week.

“Storms be damned, Florida keeps building in high-risk areas” via Jean Eaglesham and Carl Churchill of The Wall Street Journal — Driving through the mess left behind by the twin hurricanes that slammed Florida, it doesn’t take long to pass a construction site for another batch of new homes. Among them is La Linda Estates, built in a high-risk flood zone on a barrier island near Milton’s landfall. Florida built 77,000 new properties in high-risk flood areas since 2019, the most in the nation. The building binge puts the real estate industry and the banks that finance it on a collision course with insurers. The new construction is one reason insurance bills for Milton and Helene are expected to be between $40 billion and $75 billion. Big payouts from natural disasters drive insurers to raise rates and pull back on coverage. Nationally, 290,000 new properties were built in high-risk flood areas from 2019 through 2023, almost one in five of the 1.6 million total.

Appeals court says ‘Stand Your Ground’ applies to man’s best friend — A state appeals court ruled Wednesday that the state’s controversial “Stand Your Ground” law, which allows the use of deadly force if “necessary to prevent imminent death or great bodily harm,” can apply to animals. The ruling reverses a lower court decision in a case concerning a man who employed the defense after being charged with animal cruelty for killing a pit bull that he said posed an imminent threat to him and his Chihuahua.

U.S. News recognizes Florida children’s hospitals with Top 50 — Florida’s Specialty Hospitals for Children are best-in-class, according to the newly released U.S. News & World Report 2024-2025 “Best Children’s Hospitals” survey. Florida’s four nonprofit specialty children’s hospitals — Johns Hopkins All Children’s Hospital in St. Petersburg, Nemours Children’s Hospital in Orlando, Nicklaus Children’s Hospital in Miami, and Wolfson Children’s Hospital in Jacksonville — were recognized with 17 national rankings for their specialty programs. Recognized programs include Cardiology & Heart Surgery (2/4), Diabetes & Endocrine Disorders (3/4), Neonatal Care (2/4), Neurology & Neurosurgery (3/4), Oncology (1/4), Orthopedics (3/4), Pulmonology (1/4), Urology (1/4), and Behavioral Health (1/4).

— D.C. MATTERS —

“Federal money to help states hit by Helene and Milton nears $2B” via The Associated Press — The federal government has approved nearly $2 billion in assistance across six states to help people hit hard by Helene and Milton, the White House said Wednesday. The federal government has been under intense pressure to show that it is getting help to areas devastated by the back-to-back hurricanes in late September and early October as it warns that more money will be needed to fund the response. Helene was a Category 4 storm that first struck Florida’s Gulf Coast on Sept. 26, dumped trillions of gallons of rain and left a trail of destruction for hundreds of miles across several states. Milton swept across Florida two weeks later. Hurricane response has become a vital part of the upcoming presidential election, with Trump and Harris both positioning themselves as the best candidate to respond to such calamities.

“Groups ask Joe Biden to stop detaining asylum-seekers at U.S. Guantánamo Bay facility” via Syra Ortiz Blanes and Jacqueline Charles of the Miami Herald — More than a hundred organizations are asking the White House to shut down a migrant processing facility at the U.S. Navy base in Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, and stop detaining asylum-seekers found at sea at the center. “The U.S. government cannot continue to hide its diversion and mistreatment of asylum-seekers by exiling them to Guantánamo, out of reach of their families, advocates, public consciousness – and the law,” the organizations said. The International Refugee Assistance Project, a legal aid and advocacy group, spearheaded the letter along with the Haitian Bridge Alliance, which advocates for Haitian migrants across the United States. Last month, the International Refugee Assistance Project, in a published report, accused the U.S. government of detaining refugees in inhumane, prison-like conditions at its Migrant Operations Center.

“Democrats flooded with cash in fight for Congress as the GOP tries to stretch its money” via Bridget Bowman and Joe Murphy of NBC News — New fundraising reports detail just how much Democrats in competitive congressional races benefited from a wave of cash that flooded their campaigns after Harris ascended to the top of the party’s ticket, leaving Republicans scrambling to stretch their money in the election’s final weeks. Democratic House and Senate candidates raised eye-popping sums from July through September. They didn’t just outraise their GOP opponents — they swamped them. On average, Democratic candidates raised more than twice as much as Republican candidates in the third quarter in Senate and House races that the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rates as competitive. Democrats outraised Republicans in all 11 competitive Senate races and all but one of the 26 “tossup” House races.

— LOCAL: S. FL —

“Tornado count in South Florida from Milton more than doubled previous record for single day” via Kimberly Miller of The Palm Beach Post — The National Weather Service in Miami increased the number of tornadoes spawned by Milton in South Florida to 15, including two terrifying and rare EF3s. While meteorologists are still gathering evidence to assess better the mayhem, the tally of 15 tornadoes more than doubles the previous record of seven in a single day. As meteorologists forecast the event, they initially estimated nine tornadoes from Glades to Monroe counties in their seven-county region. From about 9:30 a.m. to 5:30 p.m. on Oct. 9, the NWS Miami office issued 49 tornado warnings, including the EF3 in Palm Beach County that was given the unusual label as a “potentially dangerous situation.”

“Miami-Dade Sheriff candidates clash on experience, budgeting, immigration in second debate” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — Miami-Dade County’s two Sheriff candidates faced off for the second time in a televised debate, sparring over an array of issues, from wonky subjects like budgeting to hot-button topics such as immigration and the Jan. 6 riot. Voters are just over two weeks from choosing between Republican Rosie Cordero-Stutz and Democrat James Reyes. Tuesday’s hourlong debate, moderated by reporter Jim DeFede of CBS Miami, may help those still undecided to make their pick. DeFede opened the discussion with a question to Reyes about the on-the-street police experience. Reyes, a longtime Broward County jail warden now overseeing Miami-Dade’s Police, Fire and Corrections departments as Chief of Public Safety, has no.

“Miami-Dade School Board member targets teachers with campaign ads, in violation of policy” via Clara Sophia-Daly of the Miami Herald — Robert Morgan Senior High English teacher Helena Rosa was checking her work email in her classroom when she noticed an email encouraging her to vote for Mary Blanco in the upcoming School Board election. She was shocked and reported the email as spam, she said. But when a second email arrived at her Miami-Dade County Schools email address, she wondered if this could be real. After asking a few fellow teachers, she found she was not the only one to have received an email like this from Blanco’s campaign. The Miami Herald confirmed that at least two of her Robert Morgan Senior High School colleagues received similar emails.

“Planning for growth in Fellsmere tops for some Council candidates on Nov. 5 ballot” via Corey Arwood of Treasure Coast Newspapers — Planning for development and upgrading infrastructure such as roads and drainage to meet increased demand, plus increasing community involvement in city affairs were among the top issues of City Council candidates hoping to be voted into office at the Nov. 5 General Election. Three of five Council seats are up for vote; there are five candidates. The candidates are: Joel Tyson, 92; Eric Boissat, 62; Shayla Macias, 26; Jessica Salgado, 33 and Fernando Herrera, 69. Of the five, three are incumbents: Tyson, who is Mayor; Herrera, who is Vice Mayor; and Salgado, who is Mayor Pro Tem. Boissat and Macias are seeking office for the first time. Salgado and Herrera did not respond to inquiries for comment.

“King tides return to South Florida, enhanced by a supermoon” via Bill Kearney of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel — Coastal parts of South Florida will be experiencing king tides this week, raising the likelihood of street flooding. Thursday, Friday and Saturday should draw the largest “king tides,” or larger-than-normal tides. They happen when the moon and sun align on new and full moons, exerting a greater gravitational pull on the ocean, causing it to bulge and thus rise higher. The National Weather Service said the extra-large tides would last through early next week. A coastal flood advisory is in effect for the Atlantic coast, where moderate tidal flooding is expected around periods of high tide. “Flooding of low-lying parking lots, coastal roads, and parks may occur around periods of high tide,” forecasters said. High tides around South Florida will generally coincide with morning rush hour.

— LOCAL: C. FL —

“FDLE probe: Carolina Amesty tried to persuade former employee to change story” via Annie Martin of the Orlando Sentinel — Amesty went to the home of the man who has become the key witness in the forgery investigation against her and tried to persuade him to change his story, the man and his roommate later told state investigators. When the man, a former employee of her family’s K-12 school, refused, Amesty insisted that he acknowledge the authenticity of his signature on an employment document she had notarized. He declined multiple times. Finally, the roommate intervened, she said, imploring Amesty to stop. Investigators believed that Amesty likely signed the former employee’s name herself. Investigators determined that Amesty, 29, notarized the form in September 2021, knowing the man whose name appears on the signature line, Robert Shaffer, did not sign it. In doing so, she “defrauded” the Commission for Independent Education, an arm of the education department that licenses unaccredited schools like Central Christian, they said.

“Rivals for Seminole elections chief seek to build voter trust” via Martin E. Comas of the Orlando Sentinel — The two candidates vying to become Seminole County’s next Supervisor of Elections — Republican Amy Pennock and Democrat Deborah Poulalion — agree on the major issues. They say more must be done to build voters’ confidence that elections — and ballots — are secure. To that end, Pennock and Poulalion noted that the Supervisor of Elections Office should consider using Clear Ballot. This computer tabulating system provides an individual audit record after each ballot is cast. They also agree that voters should have more days and hours to cast early ballots during Primaries, as Seminole lags behind other Central Florida counties on early voting.

“Incumbent Satellite Beach Mayor Steven Osmer faces challenge from Gabriel Johnson” via Amber Olesen of Florida Today — Two candidates will vie for the Satellite Beach Mayor’s seat on Nov. 5: Johnson and incumbent Osmer. Both highlight financial accountability, improving infrastructure, and focusing on what is most important to the residents of Satellite Beach as critical issues to tackle in the coming years. The position has a four-year term, no yearly salary, and includes a travel stipend. The Satellite Beach Mayor and other Council seats are nonpartisan races. Here’s an overview of the candidates and where they stand on issues ranging from millage to infrastructure and new development.

“Four candidates seek two open seats on Satellite Beach City Council” via Amber Olesen of Florida Today — Two seats are open in the race for Satellite Beach City Council, with current Council member Mindy Gibson termed out and another member, David Vigliotti, stepping down. Candidates Nicolle Boujaber, Mike Chase, Jazzie Hennings and Stephen Sams will appear on the ballot for the two seats, with the top two winning office. The four candidates highlight government transparency, increased taxes, local business development and improvement in infrastructure as the key issues to tackle in the coming years. The winners will join Council members Mark Boyd and Jodi Rozycki. The positions have a four-year term, no yearly salary, and a travel stipend. Satellite Beach City Council races are nonpartisan races.

“‘It’s a shame’: Lakeland’s Orange Cup Regatta scrapped due to Milton” via Robert Magobet of The Lakeland Ledger — In a typical year, boats from all around the nation make their way to Lake Hollingsworth in October to race in the annual Orange Cup Regatta. And while the lake looks perfect, Milton adversely impacted the yearly spectacle to the point where the event will be canceled for just the fourth time in its 86-year history. The decision to cancel was tough, but the race committee made it last Friday as the decision needed to be made as swiftly as possible because boats graced the lake journey from all around the county. The Orange Cup Regatta, which is partnered with Josh Hicks and the Central Florida Sports Marketing department, would have gone on this weekend if not for the hurricane.

— LOCAL: TB —

“Tensions flare as city tries to offer answers for flooded Forest Hills” via Divya Kumar of the Tampa Bay Times — Emotions ran high Tuesday as residents of Tampa’s flood-ravaged Forest Hills neighborhood demanded answers and compensation from city leaders for damage to their homes during Milton. “We lost everything,” several people shouted over officials at the meeting, including Mayor Jane Castor. The neighborhood saw entire streets where residents’ homes flooded with as much as 8 feet of standing water after city officials said pumps and generators failed. City Council member Luis Viera called the meeting, comparing the tight-knit neighborhood to something out of a Frank Capra movie.

“‘Is it ever going to end?’: Hillsborough County homes still in floodwater” via Nicole Rogers of WFLA — For many, Milton is long gone, but one neighborhood in Seffner is still inundated with water. That’s when they reached out to 8 On Your Side, wondering when this water would drain. “This right here is not going away quick,” Maria West said. “This will probably be here another week or two.” For this neighborhood north of Interstate 4, it’s heartbreaking. Many of these families have been here for decades. “My father built this house in 1965, so I’ve been here since 1965,” West said. “Is it ever going to end?” West said. We rode on a Jon boat through what used to be where they’d mow their grass. We could see cars with water almost to the top of their tires.

“LiFT facility for neurodiverse students sustains severe damage in Milton” via Breanne Williams of the Tampa Bay Business Journal — Milton caused significant damage at the Learning Independence for Tomorrow, or LiFT, School in Clearwater, delaying the return of nearly 200 students. The nonprofit educational institution specializes in providing academic and social skill development for neurodivergent students from kindergarten to adulthood. Matt Spence, Executive Director for LiFT, said Milton ripped the roof off most of the gym — which houses two full basketball courts — and the high winds and rain led to water intrusion throughout 70% of the campus. “This is going to be a financial challenge for us,” Spence said.

“After two hurricanes, Tampa Bay restaurants brace for an uncertain future” via Helen Freund of the Tampa Bay Times — As Helene slowly approached, Heidi Butler watched the water rise inside her restaurant from hundreds of miles away. Butler owns The Helm: Provisions & Coastal Fare on St. Pete Beach with her husband, Michael. In late September, the pair stared at grainy black-and-white security footage of the building’s dining room while camping near their other restaurant, a new property in Greenville, South Carolina.

“St. Pete Beach eases code regulation in Milton’s aftermath” via Mark Schantz of the Tampa Bay Times — City Commissioners have adopted a 60-day emergency amendment to the local land development code to allow certain storm-damaged items — most notably air conditioners — to be replaced in properties that might otherwise be considered “nonconforming.” Senior planner Brandon Berry said the move aims to “promote expediency in addressing widespread health, safety and welfare issues anticipated in the wake of Hurricane Helene (and) local impacts from Hurricane Milton.” Berry noted the amendment “may be extended under similar circumstances or made permanent through the standard amendment process.”

“Amid Florida hurricane wreckage, young love prevails” via Lauren Peace of the Tampa Bay Times — On the fifth day of their blurred new reality, in the clubhouse of the groom’s grandmother’s 55+ community, the bride stood in a beaded white dress and fiddled with her hair clip — something new. About 10 minutes before the ceremony, a boy in a tan suit and Nikes knocked on the door of her makeshift dressing room, a kitchen off one of the banquet halls where friends of the bride sipped green fizzy drinks against the whir of an industrial freezer. For Riley Hannon, the wedding was never in question. He’d marry her in a parking lot. In the center of the street lined with broken dressers and moldy mattresses. But for Jasmine, the arch, intact in a house of drowned belongings, felt like a sign. In the mess of it all, they’d find a way. Five days later, they gathered outside a flood zone at the clubhouse.

“It’s officially Halloween season, and Tampa Bay has lots of treats” via Sharon Kennedy Wynne of the Tampa Bay Times — Now that it’s October, we can indulge in Halloween season’s official arrival. From theme parks to themed cocktail lounges and costume parties, let your freak flag fly at these Tampa Bay scares. Busch Gardens Howl-O-Scream: The premium haunt at Busch Gardens is celebrating its 25th anniversary this year with five haunted houses and several open-air scare zones, themed foods and drinks, live comic shows, and coasters in the dark.

— LOCAL: N. FL —

“Donna Deegan says Trump’s deportation plan is ‘concentration camp-type situation’” via David Bauerlein of The Florida Times-Union — Deegan said during an appearance on Times Radio in London that Trump’s immigration policy would amount to creating “concentration camps” for holding undocumented immigrants. “To put people in what would really amount to a concentration camp-type situation to round them out of the country doesn’t seem to me to be a very American thing to do,” Deegan said. Brian Hughes, a senior political adviser for the Trump campaign, called Deegan’s comments “horrendously irresponsible for an elected official.” Jacksonville City Council member Ron Salem denounced Deegan’s use of the term “concentration camp” and said it invokes the death camps created by Nazi Germany.

“Jacksonville leaders slam Deegan for comments on Trump immigration policy on London radio show” via Travis Gibson and Ariel Schiller of News 4 Jax — Deegan faced backlash from Republican city leaders following her comments on a London radio show about the immigration policy proposed by Trump. The Democratic Mayor was asked about Trump’s immigration plan by the host and likened it to a “concentration camp-type situation.” Last week, Trump announced that as President, he’d launch “Operation Aurora” to focus on deporting members of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua, or TDA. The violent gang traces its origins more than a decade into an infamously lawless prison with hardened criminals. Trump also repeated his pledge to invoke the Alien Enemies Act, a 1798 law that allows the President to deport any noncitizen who is from a country that the U.S. is at war with. It has not been used in the United States since World War II and during the War of 1812 before then.

“Cases of flesh-eating bacteria, which killed two in Jacksonville, double after hurricanes” via Drew Cosgray of First Coast News — Flesh-eating bacteria cases have more than doubled since Milton and Helene, the Florida DOH said. Two people in Duval County have died of the bacteria, according to the Florida Times-Union. More than 37 cases were reported in September. Dr. Chad Neilson, director of infection prevention at UF Health Jacksonville, said flesh-eating bacteria can be found in floodwaters, and he wants people to understand the seriousness of the disease. “This bacteria thrives in warm waters, especially after hurricanes, and it gets into people’s cuts and scrapes and causes any number of symptoms,” he said. The two deaths in Duval County were not attributed to the recent storms.

“Gulf Coast Board moves forward with some $32M in public projects for Panhandle counties” via Drew Dixon of Florida Politics — The Triumph Gulf Coast Board of Directors approved about $32 million to distribute and develop projects in four Panhandle counties this week. The Board met in Pensacola and approved the new grant award agreements and permission to negotiate other deals. Three new grant award agreements got the green light, while another project was advanced to grant award negotiations, and two grantees were approved for initial term negotiations. The funding and projects target Escambia, Franklin, Santa Rosa, and Walton counties.

“Without a Board of Trustees quorum at meeting, FAMU’s presidential search further delayed” via Tarah Jean of the Tallahassee Democrat — Finding a new president for Florida A&M University won’t get started anytime soon. The reason? Enough of the historically Black university’s Board of Trustees didn’t show up to a special meeting Wednesday. Without a quorum, they couldn’t pick a search firm. And so, with seven out of the Board’s 13 members absent, the main purpose of the virtual meeting had to be postponed. “It’s extremely disappointing that today was scheduled as the time when the Board was available and there is not a quorum to be able to move forward with this important action item,” Board of Trustees Chair Kristin Harper said during the five-minute meeting. “We will have to take action some other time.”

“JEA receives national recognition for program promoting efficient use of water” via Drew Dixon of Florida Politics — Jacksonville’s utility agency is being recognized nationally for promoting water conservation in the city. In September, JEA received an award from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for promoting the WaterSense program. The program helps consumers by providing advisories on how to save water around households and businesses. The program offers labels around water outlets and appliances that explain how to efficiently use water without unnecessary waste. In Jacksonville, that program applied to 2,100 manufacturers, builders, retailers, utilities, government and nonprofit organizations. “Our customers are increasingly looking for ways to conserve resources and save money, and JEA is committed to providing those solutions,” said JEA Chief Customer Experience Officer Sheila Pressley.

“Jim & Milt’s Bar B-Q, iconic former restaurant, on West Pensacola Street demolished” via Kyla A Sanford of the Tallahassee Democrat — The building that housed Jim & Milt’s Bar B-Q on West Pensacola Street for 43 years was demolished Wednesday. The iconic barbecue joint shuttered in 2021 when longtime owner Mike Flury decided it was time to retire. It was known for its hefty portions, cheap prices and friendly longtime staff. The building, which has been vacant for nearly three years, was demolished to make way for what patrons anticipate will become Tallahassee’s first Cook Out restaurant, a popular chain eatery with a cultlike following. The former eatery, once described by a restaurant reviewer as a “Korean War field kitchen-turned-juke joint” and a second home to Florida State students and townie patrons alike was slated to be the No. 1 site for the fast-food chain.

— LOCAL: SW FL —

“Sarasota Bradenton Airport reopens, flights resume after Milton damage” via Samantha Gholar of the Sarasota Herald-Tribune — Sarasota Bradenton International Airport reopened to the public as planned after being shut down for a week due to Milton. “The repairs to the terminal roof, which were necessary due to Hurricane Milton, have been successfully completed,” SRQ officials said in a social media statement ahead of the terminal coming back online. Damage from the hurricane included two large portions of the roof’s membrane rolling up and ripping from the main terminal at SRQ, similar to the damage two years ago during Hurricane Ian. Other Milton repairs included damage to multiple public and private airport hangars and a loss of power.

“After Milton, satellite shows possible huge red tide bloom offshore Sarasota and Bradenton” Jesse Mendoza of the Sarasota Herald-Tribune — Red tide may be blooming offshore from coastal communities impacted by Milton, but the storm has also caused a lag in official sampling to confirm findings from satellite imagery. Satellite images by the National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science show signs of a large algal bloom along much of the Florida Gulf Coast that spans from an area north of Clearwater down to Manasota Key south of Venice — including large hot spots offshore from Sarasota, Manatee and Pinellas. However, a red tide bloom has yet to be confirmed because official samples published by the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission have not been updated since Oct. 4 due to interruption because of Milton.

“Bonita Springs mayoral race: Candidates address growth, infrastructure, future challenges” via Mickenzie Hannon of the Fort Myers News-Press — Four candidates are vying for the mayoral seat in Bonita Springs. Here’s what you should know about the race and a Q&A with each candidate. All Bonita Springs residents who are registered and eligible to vote can participate in the at-large mayoral race in the General Election. Key issues shaping the race include managing sustainable growth, improving infrastructure to mitigate flooding and preparing the city for future disasters. The next Mayor will play a critical role in balancing development with environmental preservation while maintaining fiscal responsibility. The Mayor’s annual salary is $26,582, with a term limit of two consecutive four-year terms. The Mayor and City Council members can serve up to two four-year terms back-to-back.

“Two incumbents, four newcomers vie for four seats on Marco Island City Council” via J. Kyle Foster of the Naples Daily News — In Marco Island, four City Council seats are open for election on Nov. 5. Two incumbents are running, along with four newcomers. The most prominent topics are water quality, beach renourishment, traffic and controlling growth. Two eligible incumbents — Rich Blonna and Becky Irwin — are running along with Tamara Goehler, Stephen Gray, Deb Henry and Bonita Schwan. Blonna, 73, is a City Council member seeking his second term. He moved to Marco Island from New Jersey. Blonna is a retired professor emeritus from the Department of Public Health at William Paterson University of New Jersey.

— TOP OPINION —

“The October surprise may be arriving shortly” via Jeff Greenfield of POLITICO Magazine — Again and again, close presidential contests have been overtaken by last-minute events that rendered the months of analysis and speculation inoperative. Historians can debate the ultimate impact of these moments, but they have emerged often enough that they should provide a good dose of humility to any assessment of the outcome.

Welcome to the “October surprise,” which has come to mean any late-breaking event with the potential to change the course of the race, but which first entered America’s political lexicon in 1980.

If history is not enough evidence that “unknown unknowns” have the potential to upend this campaign, consider just the events of this past year. Back in January, POLITICO Magazine asked about a dozen of us to suggest events that might disrupt what seemed at the time to be an extremely static race.

The fact is, many of those “predictions” have already happened: Devastating hurricanes, rising global conflict, a violent assault on a candidate.

My own contribution was this: “Every time Joe Biden steps on a stage or off a plane, his supporters hold their breath. With most voters (including Democrats) thinking he’s too old to be President, a highly public stumble (physical or verbal) could turn that belief into a serious demand for someone else to take his place.”

So, when you read of the remarkable “stability” of the 2024 race, the relatively minor movement in the polls, the reasonable assertions that issues like immigration, inflation or abortion will be decisive, just keep in mind that if past is prologue, we may still be in for a surprise.

— OPINIONS —

“The general’s warning” via Tom Nichols of The Atlantic — In March 2023, when Mark Milley was six months away from retirement as a four-star general and the Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, he met Bob Woodward at a reception and said, “We gotta talk.” Woodward recounts the episode with Milley — who almost certainly believed that he was speaking to Woodward off the record — in his new book, War: “We have got to stop him!” Milley said. “You have got to stop him!” By “you,” he meant the press broadly. “He is the most dangerous person ever. I had suspicions when I talked to you about his mental decline and so forth, but now I realize he’s a total fascist. He is the most dangerous person to this country.” His eyes darted around the room filled with 200 guests of the Cohen Group, a global business consulting firm headed by former defense secretary William Cohen. Cohen and former Defense Secretary James Mattis spoke. “A fascist to the core!” Milley repeated to me. I will never forget the intensity of his worry.

“The former President’s actual plans are no better than his tweets” via David French of The New York Times — Are his policies actually better than his tweets? No, they are not. For Republicans to believe that Trump will govern responsibly, they have to believe that his campaign is a lie. Because if you actually listen to Trump, he’s not promising peace and prosperity. He’s promising conflict, chaos and economic policies that make no sense if inflation is a prime concern. If you take Trump’s words seriously (and we should take every presidential candidate’s words seriously), his proposed policies mean more inflation, worse debt, greater international instability, incompetent or corrupt appointees, disruptive mass deportations and the deployment of military force against domestic opponents. That is not a formula for peace, prosperity or stability. It’s a formula for precisely the economic and international chaos that Republicans say they want to avoid. Trump’s conduct reminds us that the best moments of his first term are an artifact of establishment Republican influence, influence he now rejects.

“What Bill Clinton’s gaffe says about Harris and the border” via Byron York of the Washington Examiner — On Sunday, former President Clinton attended the Fort Valley GOTV Community Fish Fry in Fort Valley, Georgia. It was the kind of small-scale, face-to-face politicking that was the former President’s specialty. “On the immigration thing,” Clinton said, “she’s the only candidate who has actually endorsed a bill that would hold down immigration in any given year to a certain point and then make sure we gave people a decent place to live. We didn’t divide people from their children, and we did total vetting before people got in. Now, Trump killed the bill. The bill was being written by senior Republicans in the Senate, and he killed the bill. Why?” Clinton blew up the Harris-Biden defense on the politically powerful issue of migrant crime. In effect, Clinton said this: If Biden and Harris had conducted the normal vetting required to allow migrants into the U.S. — if they had just done that, Laken Riley would probably be alive today. “They [Harris and Biden] were for open borders, no talk, anybody comes in, just walk right into our country, which is insane,” Trump told The Blaze’s Glenn Beck. “[Clinton] is a little late in saying it. … The damage has been done.”

“DeSantis admin threatens criminal charges for TV stations airing ads he dislikes. Putin would be proud” via Scott Maxwell of the Orlando Sentinel — Last week, when Milton was pounding on Florida, a story broke that didn’t get much attention … at least not in Florida. The headline in the Orlando Sentinel read: “Florida’s threat of criminal charges against TV stations blasted as unconstitutional.” Yes, DeSantis’ administration was threatening to arrest TV executives. Why? Because they aired campaign ads he didn’t like. Apparently, it is now literally a crime to utter opinions that Dear Leader DeSantis doesn’t want to hear. This story — something you’d expect to read in Russia or North Korea — was greeted with alarm at the national level. But in Florida, it was largely ignored. Partly because of the storm. But also because this Governor’s extremist, authoritarian actions have become numbingly routine.

“The Sunshine Staters aren’t going anywhere” via Diane Roberts for The Atlantic — Politicians, condominium touts, and Tourist Board boosters will tell you that Florida is paradise, a Garden of Eden at North America’s southeastern corner. Citizens of the upper 48 are sold a daydream Florida of poolside cocktails, low taxes, and conservative-leaning politics. They imagine a life spent tootling around on golf carts or lolling on pontoon boats, liberated from shoveling snow and having to pay for public schools and social services. For them, Florida operates in a state of amnesia, promising an endless vacation wasting away in Margaritaville. If people actually faced the fact of climate change, we’d stop building on barrier islands; we’d retreat inland; we’d demand a halt to the destruction of mangrove forests and wetlands that mitigate storm surges. But that’s not happening, not while money’s to be made creating an illusion of paradise.

“Dan Backer: Scary question — does America spend more on elections or Halloween candy?” via Florida Politics — Halloween is the ultimate opportunity to spend money to express oneself, and, in the end (other than the terrifying dentist bills), it doesn’t really matter. But when it comes to spending money on something that does matter — the future of our country and how much we allow the government to intrude into our lives — big spending suddenly becomes a big problem. And yet, by the end of this two-year presidential cycle, Americans will only have spent around $10.7 billion. That’s 10% less in two years than a single year’s Halloween! Of course, part of that is market economics — but the more that government oozes into every corner of our lives, the more Americans feel forced to spend, whether it’s to defend their rights, promote their preferred policies, or line their own pockets. The only real difference is that Halloween spending is only chided by a few cranks, whereas political spending is inevitably attacked by anyone who opposes the view it’s spent on.

— INSTAGRAM OF THE DAY —

— ALOE —

“Disney World announces Epcot Candlelight Processional lineup for Christmas” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics — It’s not quite Halloween yet, but Disney World is already focused on Christmas. The company just announced the full roster of celebrities reading the holiday story at Epcot’s Candlelight Processional. “This year’s list of celebrity narrators is packed with all the stars to light up the America Gardens Theatre,” Disney World said on its parks blog. The list includes big names in Disney lore and the Hollywood elite. A few are new; others are old favorites at the Candlelight Processional, which is included in regular theme park admission and has become a popular way for Disney fans to celebrate the holidays. Josh Gad, the voice of Olaf in “Frozen,” is first scheduled to begin the season on Nov. 29. New additions this year include “The Karate Kid” actor Ralph Macchio, “Crazy Rich Asians” actor Nico Santos and singer/actor Tituss Burgess.

“Florida parents welcome ‘miracle baby’ born during Milton’s landfall” via Emilee Speck of Fox 13 — The parents of a new baby boy are celebrating his birth, happening within hours of Milton’s landfall, even as the family continues to mourn his grandfather, who died during another hurricane years ago. Kenzie Lewellen and Dewey Bennett were anxious about Milton’s arrival and how it would impact their ability to reach the hospital near Venice, Florida, part of the mandatory evacuation zone. Lewellen’s due date was Oct. 13, just a few days after Milton landed near Siesta Key on the Gulf Coast as a Category 3 hurricane.

— HAPPY BIRTHDAY —

Best wishes to former state Sen. Ellyn Bogdanoff, Mark Hollis, Madeline Rose, Orange County Tax Collector Scott Randolph, and Ray Seaman of Progress Florida. Today would have been former Rep. Kristin Jacobs‘ birthday.

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Sunburn is authored and assembled by Peter Schorsch, Phil Ammann, Daniel Dean, Ryan Nicol, Jacob Ogles, and Drew Wilson.