Last Call for 11.4.24 – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida

Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.

First Shot

If betting markets are to be believed, the pendulum is swinging back toward Vice President Kamala Harris.

Bettors have favored former President Donald Trump for the past few weeks, with implied odds he’d be elected peaking near 65%. However, the race tightened significantly over the weekend.

On Monday, BoyleSports said Trump’s odds now stand at 8/11 — or 58% implied probability. Meanwhile, Harris has climbed from 13/8 (38%) to 6/5 (45%).

“Trump was enjoying a comfortable lead in the betting until the final 48 hours, but Harris is attracting some significant late support. It’s certainly too close to call for us, and we’re back where we started with only a whisker between the two candidates,” said BoyleSports spokesperson Lawrence Lyons.

VegasInsider noted a near identical slide for the former President, putting the current line at 58.49% implied odds for Trump and 45.85% for Harris.

“The recent shift in the betting odds adds a fresh twist to an already heated race. While Trump still holds the lead, the sudden drop over the weekend — from 64.49% to 58.49% — suggests that confidence may be waning among bettors. Meanwhile, Harris’s surge by 5 points to 45.85% highlights her growing momentum, making this a tighter race than before,” a VegasInsider spokesperson said.

“Despite the consistent narrative of Trump holding an advantage, the betting markets are now signaling a more competitive showdown ahead of the polls closing tomorrow.”

Evening Reads

​​—”Kamala Harris has 4-point lead over Donald Trump in final PBS News/NPR/Marist election poll” via Matt Loffman of PBS News

—”Who’s going to win on Election Day? Here are eight columnists’ predictions.” via James Hohmann of The Washington Post

—”How red and blue America shop, eat and live” via Francesca Paris and Tim Wallace of The New York Times

—“Hypnosis? Colonoscopy? What some people will do to avoid Election Day.” via Maura Judkis of The Washington Post

—”Trump vs. Harris divides a marriage, a town and America on Election Eve” via Hannah Knowles of The Washington Post

—”The five best books to read before an election” via Ben Jacobs of The Atlantic

—”The early vote doesn’t reliably predict results” via Nate Silver of the Silver Bulletin

—“Four years after ‘Stop the Steal,’ an organized army emerges online” via Drew Harwell, Cat Zakrzewski and Naomi Nix of The Washington Post

—”What the final polls show about the 2024 Presidential Election” via Andrew Prokop of Vox

—”Why that shock Iowa poll might not be so shocking” via Chris Cillizza of So What

—“Political advertising surge drives Fox Corp. earnings” via Alex Weprin of The Hollywood Reporter

—”Medical emergencies at Trump, Harris rallies underscore challenges of crowd management” via Issac Morgan of the Florida Phoenix

—”The Orlando Sentinel guide to last-minute campaign attack ads” via Ryan Gillespie, Natalia Jaramillo, Martin E. Comas, Stephen Hudak and Silas Morgan of the Orlando Sentinel

—“Can the GOP hold on to supermajority control in Florida’s Legislature?” via Evan Wyloge of The Tributary

Quote of the Day

“Some of these guys are telling me like they practically got high just from being in the stadium, that literally the whole stadium just reeks of marijuana.”

— Gov. Ron DeSantis, bemoaning the presence of pot smoke at the Miami vs. Cal football game.

Put it on the Tab

Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.

The final pre-election polls are out, and guess what? It’s going to be a close one. Order yourself a Coin Toss and find a good chair for tomorrow night.

Order a Doctor’s Orders for Brian Meyer, who was named the new Deputy Secretary for Medicaid at the Agency for Health Care Administration.

The Hurricane Helene tab has hit a new milestone. It’ll take five Billion Dollar Apples to help the Floridians reeling from the storm.

Breakthrough Insights

Tune In

Bucs face unbeaten Chiefs on Monday Night Football

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers face the only remaining undefeated team in the NFL as they travel to Kansas City to play the Chiefs tonight on Monday Night Football (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN).

The Bucs (4-4) are coming off consecutive home losses to the Baltimore Ravens and Atlanta Falcons. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has thrown for more than 300 yards in three straight games and enters tonight’s contest fifth in the NFL in passing yards. He needs 372 passing yards to overtake Geno Smith of the Seattle Seahawks for the NFL lead. Tampa Bay wide receiver Chris Godwin is tied for seventh in the league with 50 catches, 10 receptions behind league leader Garrett Wilson of the New York Jets. 

Kansas City (7-0) has been winning games thanks mainly to the defense this season. The usually high-powered Chiefs’ offense has not scored more than 28 points in a game this season. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes is having a pedestrian season with eight touchdown passes and nine interceptions. Still, the two-time defending Super Bowl champions have found ways to win every week. KC has held opponents to 17.6 points per game, the third-best in the NFL. The Chiefs have allowed the opposition to run for 82.3 yards per game, also the third-best in the league. Typically, the turnover margin is a good indicator of a team’s success, but Kansas City is minus-3 in the category this season.

Despite recent success in the postseason, the Chiefs have not been a prime-time juggernaut. Last season, in five regular-season prime-time games, Kansas City lost three, including home games against the Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles. 

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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.