Winner and Loser of the Week in Florida politics — Week of 11.10.24

Did a freak natural disaster derail the Tampa Bay Rays’ new stadium deal?

It’s not dead yet. But as Colleen Wright and Gabrielle Calise of the Tampa Bay Times reported, a key county vote on bonds to finance the stadium deal got delayed until after the November election because of Hurricane Milton’s impact. That election just saw two new Pinellas County Commissioners join the body who have expressed some reservations about the agreement.

That’s also not the only factor at play here. Milton ripped the roof off of Tropicana Field, and the Rays say playing there is not an option for 2025. Recently, the team announced they would play at Steinbrenner Field in Tampa.

Notably, the Tampa Bay Rays play in St. Petersburg, located in Pinellas County, not in Tampa Bay, located in Hillsborough County. And the decision to play their 2025 season in Tampa, rather than somewhere in Pinellas County, has also drawn the ire of Pinellas Commissioner Chris Latvala.

The problems caused by the Trop turmoil don’t end there. The city of St. Petersburg is also on the hook for the nearly $56 million bill to repair the stadium. St. Pete Mayor Ken Welch has said the city plans to pay the costs, despite a new stadium hopefully opening just a few years down the line.

Now of course, local governments have insurance to help cover these sorts of things, and that’s true here as well. Unfortunately, the city of St. Petersburg’s coverage only applies up to $25 million in damage. So the city is on the hook for the remaining $30 million-plus.

At least, that’s been true since March of this year. You see, until then, the city had a more robust insurance plan for Tropicana Field. But just a few months ago, officials decided to trim that coverage down to save $275,000 in premiums.

The previous insurance plan, meanwhile, covered $100 million in damages.

That’s right, the city cut their coverage by $75 million to save $275,000. And just months later, they got hit with a storm causing by far the most damage the Trop has ever seen since it opened in 1990.

The Miami Marlins may have had the most errors of any MLB team last season. But the Rays’ home city made the biggest flub this year.

Details about the Rays’ new stadium will hopefully be fleshed out in time to move forward. But the problems facing their old field aren’t going away until the city of St. Pete ponies up.

Now, it’s onto our weekly game of winners and losers.

Winners

Honorable mention: Mike Waltz. Waltz was one of President-elect Donald Trump’s first appointments, with Waltz being brought on as National Security Adviser.

It’s a role that fits Waltz perfectly. He’s the first Green Beret to ever serve in Congress and did combat tours in Afghanistan, the Middle East and Africa. Waltz also earned four Bronze Stars for his service, including two with valor.

But it’s not just his on-the-ground experience that serves him well here.

Waltz worked in the Pentagon under former Defense secretaries Donald Rumsfeld and Robert Gates. After joining Congress, Waltz has served as Chair of the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Readiness and as a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee and the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. That means he’s seen the government/administrative side of the foreign policy sphere as well.

And Waltz also aligns with Trump’s hard-line views on China.

It’s a great pick, and that’s before noting that the Waltz nod avoids the drama over Trump’s 2016 pick for National Security Adviser, Mike Flynn.

Waltz will have a prime role within the administration that could serve as a springboard as his political career continues.

Almost (but not quite) the biggest winner: Marco Rubio. In terms of all of Trump’s nominations thus far, Rubio likely wins out in terms of weighing the importance of the role, the person’s fit for it and the relative ease with which they’ll be confirmed.

Much has been discussed about 2016 and the rivalry between Rubio and Trump, now culminating in them working together on one of the most important silos in the incoming Trump administration: foreign policy.

That past conflict has been mined and will continue to be, but there’s another important aspect of 2016 to look back upon. Rubio at the time was adamant for months that should his presidential bid fail, he was saying goodbye to politics and returning to the private sector. Only toward the end of that campaign did he decide to stick around for another Senate run, which he followed up with another win in 2022.

Now, instead of being out of the public eye entirely, he’s set to serve as the next Secretary of State.

Like Waltz’ position, this is right in Rubio’s wheelhouse. He’s the top Republican on the Senate Western Hemisphere Subcommittee. He’s long been focused on issues in South and Central America. And like Waltz, Rubio is a China hawk, further cementing uniformity for the incoming Trump admin.

And make no mistake, Rubio will sail through confirmation among his soon-to-be-former Senate colleagues.

The upcoming dynamic between Rubio and Trump will certainly be one to watch. But this role gives Rubio an opportunity to shine not just here, but on the world stage. If Rubio wanted another line on his résumé to support a future presidential run, he just got it.

The biggest winner: Matt Gaetz. As for confirmation hearings that may be slightly more contentious …

Trump began the week with mainstream picks like Waltz and Rubio. As the week went on, Trump announced that people like Gaetz, Fox News host Pete Hegseth and former Democrats with, let’s say, outside the box views like Tulsi Gabbard and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would also be joining his administration.

So there are some theories here regarding the Gaetz Attorney General pick.

One is that Gaetz’s unpopularity with his GOP colleagues in Washington following his evisceration of former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s tenure could doom Gaetz’s chances of confirmation. If Trump World knows that, then perhaps this is simply cover to get those other controversial nominees through, as new Senate Majority Leader John Thune can’t be expected to pick a fight with several Trump nominees.

We’re skeptical that is what is happening here though.

Another view is that Trump expects full fealty and is naming some of the most loyal, and at times outrageous, picks that he can just to assert dominance over Senate Republicans and dare them to oppose him.

Of course, there’s the House Ethics report into Gaetz’s past that may or may not be released now that Gaetz has resigned from the House early, removing himself from their jurisdiction. Some Senators, however, have signaled they will want to get their hands on that report regardless, should Gaetz appear for confirmation hearings.

There is a very vigorous discussion that needs to happen, and will happen, about the merits of this pick over the next weeks and months. But our question for this entry is: What does all of this mean for Gaetz?

There are two options: Gaetz navigates this firestorm and gets confirmed anyway, leading the Justice Department and serving as a loyal Trump acolyte. Obviously, that’s a win for him.

But what if this move fails and pressure from Senate Republicans either forces Gaetz to withdraw or leads to a confirmation hearing where he gets savaged and ultimately rejected?

Honestly, that is still probably a win for Gaetz, especially if in that process, he avoids the contents of that House Ethics report going public.

But either way, Gaetz being rejected by the Republican establishment is kind of his entire schtick. After that, Gaetz can line up a run for Governor in 2026 and have yet another example of how the establishment is afraid of him, further reinforcing his brand.

And would that come with a Trump endorsement in the 2026 GOP Primary? If so, those worried about Attorney General Matt Gaetz may need to start coming to terms with Gov. Matt Gaetz instead.

Losers

Dishonorable mention: Rick Scott. Scott took on the Senate establishment once again, and once again came up short in his bid for the Leader position.

Leading up to the vote to replace outgoing Leader Mitch McConnell, Scott framed the secret ballot contest as a referendum on Trump’s win earlier this month.

“The bottom line is this: Do you support Trump’s agenda or not?” Scott said. “If you don’t support Trump’s agenda, you’re probably not going to elect me.”

That was a smart gamble, especially given that the other two contenders — U.S. Sen. John Thune of South Dakota and U.S. Sen. John Cornyn of Texas — have been openly critical of Trump in the past.

But without a public Trump endorsement, the pressure just wasn’t there to put Scott over the top.

The Republican caucus ultimately prioritized institutional stability, elevating Thune, a longtime McConnell ally. Scott did gather plenty of open support for his bid, even from outside the state. That shows that even though he lost this round, he’s still got a groundswell of support going forward.

To what end remains to be seen, but in the meantime he’ll have the consolation prize of enjoying a fresh six-year term in the Senate.

Almost (but not quite) the biggest loser: Ron DeSantis, Cord Byrd. Given all of the Florida Men being suctioned up into the new Trump administration, the state has some moves to make regarding replacements.

Gov. DeSantis has free reign over the Senate seat, with the Governor empowered to appoint a replacement until the next scheduled General Election in 2026.

But for departing House members, the Governor is required to schedule a Special Election. And that’s important because the GOP majority in the House is expected to be narrow once again. That’s even without two members from Florida departing.

And look, these things take time. As many recall, former Democratic U.S. Rep. Alcee Hastings’ seat sat open for more than nine months following his death. But there are a lot of moving parts here and it’s important to get it done right rather than get it done quickly.

If the seat is held by Democrats, of course.

Because DeSantis and his Secretary of State are wasting no time in filling the Gaetz and Waltz seats, which will without a doubt be filled by Republicans.

Byrd said the Florida Department of State is “working to ensure these special elections are conducted as soon as possible.”

Yes, when the Special Election will put another Republican in Washington and help strengthen their power, DeSantis and his Secretary of State (the latter of whom, to be fair, was not in that position when Hastings passed away) will move with all deliberate speed to get that seat filled.

Yet when a Democrat seat is vacant, Team DeSantis has no trouble dragging things out, to the point Democrats tried to force him to speed things up going forward.

And while we were being facetious earlier, it’s important to point out that nine months is by no means the norm for these sorts of things. When former U.S. Rep. Robert Wexler resigned his House seat, it remained open for just three months. When U.S. Rep. Bill Young died in 2013, it took five months to replace him.

And something like that timeline may once again apply to these two newly opened seats. Great! We would just really love to see that urgency applied by DeSantis World regardless of the party occupying the seat.

The biggest loser: Glen Gilzean. When Gilzean in June announced his decision not to seek a full term as Orange County Supervisor of Elections, we expected him to fade into the sunset and await another cushy appointment from DeSantis.

After all, it was DeSantis who installed him as Administrator of the Governor’s Disney Governing Board takeover. Then, DeSantis shifted Gilzean over as Orange County Supervisor after Bill Cowles retired.

So we anticipated Gilzean would leave quietly before his next move. Nope.

Reports emerged this week that Gilzean created a $2.1 million scholarship fund with his name on it, using money that was not approved by Orange County government officials.

Blowback was swift, and Gilzean quickly announced that he would remove his name from the fund.

But that didn’t address the rogue spending itself. And shortly after that report, more news broke that Gilzean gave another $1.9 million to a career center to train temp workers that helped his Office conduct elections.

That led to a threat by Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings to sue over the spending.

Gilzean is hiding behind the admittedly noble goals of the spending to deflect from questions about him skirting the normal rules of budgeting. Now, he may have opened himself up to legal trouble should the county move forward.

We’re not sure what point Gilzean was trying to make here, but it’s getting drowned out by the much-deserved backlash.