Ryan Nicol
Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell has called her 2020 reelection bid “one of the toughest” congressional contests in the country. Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Giménez is looking to make good on that prediction in November.
Giménez secured the Republican nomination in the Aug. 18 primary, though by a smaller margin than many predicted given the Mayor’s eight-year tenure leading Miami-Dade County. Giménez defeated Omar Blanco 60% to 40% despite Giménez raising more than six times Blanco’s total.
The COVID-19 pandemic is likely to be at the forefront of voters’ minds at the ballot box this fall. Giménez will be in a unique position, having helmed Florida’s most populous county, which also hosted the biggest concentration of coronavirus cases in the state.
That’s not entirely the Mayor’s fault. Proximity allows the virus to spread, meaning larger metropolitan areas have consistently been hit harder than rural ones, on average.
Giménez did raise eyebrows in mid-June, however, as he downplayed a rise in cases after the county’s move to reopen alongside Broward and Palm Beach counties.
“We always expected that as we open the economy, we would have more positive rates,” Giménez explained on June 19. “We don’t see this as concerning.”
Just eight days later, on June 27, the continuing rise in cases forced Giménez to close beaches during the July 4 weekend. By July 1, the county ramped up restrictions on restaurants and hotels. Those were just a few of the measures the county took as infections spiraled out of control. Nearly 2,300 residents have now died in Miami-Dade County due to the virus with more than 150,000 infected.
“He’s mishandled the coronavirus epidemic, resulting in unnecessary suffering across Miami-Dade,” argued Mucarsel-Powell campaign manager Andrew Markoff.
New cases have since sharply dropped due in large part to those increased restrictions set up in June and July. With the numbers falling, Giménez is again readying to roll back restrictions while warning residents to maintain social distancing. How that move shakes out in the coming months will likely impact the concurrent campaign.
Mucarsel-Powell has acknowledged the Mayor’s high name-ID in the district could benefit him in the General Election. Nicole Rapanos, a Giménez campaign spokesperson, also pointed to a Republican-backed survey showing positive numbers for Giménez.
“South Florida voters are looking for leadership in these difficult times,” Rapanos said.
“The only public poll in the race shows Giménez is better known, better liked and already leading by a 5-point margin in the General Election.”
That poll, released in late July, was commissioned by the Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF) — a super PAC aimed at electing Republicans to the U.S. House, which opposed Mucarsel-Powell in 2018.
Unsurprisingly, it had Giménez leading in the contest 47%-42%, which fell within the survey’s margin of error. The survey gave Giménez a +26 approval rating, with 76% able to form an opinion of the Mayor. Just 49% had an opinion on Mucarsel-Powell, who netted a +9 approval rating.
Whether that survey accurately captures voter sentiment remains to be seen. It did precede a shift in the Cook Political Report’s forecast. The outlet moved the race from “leaning Democratic” to a “toss up” after the poll went public.
Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia still has the race “leaning Democratic.”
One major metric in Mucarsel-Powell’s favor is the incumbent’s cash advantage over Giménez. Giménez only joined the race in January, giving Mucarsel-Powell a head start to begin with. He has failed to outraise Mucarsel-Powell in a single fundraising report since then. As of July 29, Mucarsel-Powell has nearly $2.83 million on hand compared to $882,000 for Giménez.
“Debbie Mucarsel-Powell’s strong grassroots fundraising gives us the resources to mount a strong campaign,” Markoff said.
Markoff also jabbed at Giménez only securing 60% in the Republican primary, calling it “a clear sign not even Republican voters have confidence in him.”
Rapanos disagrees.
“Mayor Giménez is well positioned to win this seat,” she argued. “Democratic groups poured $11.3 million into this race and Mucarsel-Powell only won in 2018 by the slimmest of margins — fewer than 5,000 votes. Mucarsel-Powell rode a partisan wave in 2018, but in the prior presidential cycle, she was defeated in a state Senate race that mirrors this seat,” Rapanos said.
It’s true Mucarsel-Powell lost the 2016 contest for Senate District 39. That district doesn’t totally mirror CD 26 but does overlap in parts, particularly in Monroe County.
Mucarsel-Powell lost that race against incumbent Republican state Sen. Anitere Flores. Just two years later, Mucarsel-Powell defeated Carlos Curbelo to take CD 26.
While Rapanos is correct that 2018 was a wave year for Democrats, the party is banking on another such year in 2020 with President Donald Trump on the ballot. While Curbelo won the CD 26 race in 2016, Hillary Clinton carried the district by 16 points.
If Democrats up that margin in 2020, Mucarsel-Powell could be safe given her incumbency and fundraising advantage.
Democrats aren’t taking that for granted, however. Mucarsel-Powell won the seat in 2018 by 2 percentage points. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) placed Mucarsel-Powell in its Frontline Program, which sends resources to potentially vulnerable House Democrats.
Mucarsel-Powell and Democratic groups have also taken to tagging Giménez with the “Corrupt Carlos” nickname in multiple ad campaigns, arguing his sons have benefited from the Mayor’s tenure. That tactic did, however, lead the Mucarsel-Powell team to retract and replace an ad which wrongly described some of that work done by Giménez and his sons.
As the Nov. 3 election closes in, Rapanos argued Giménez will paint himself as the better bridge-builder of the two.
“As a firefighter, city manager, and commissioner, Carlos Giménez has spent his life working with people from all viewpoints to find solutions to everyday problems,” Rapanos said.
“Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is one of the most partisan and least effective incumbents. She’s spent her time in Congress catering to the far-left squad and voting in lock-step with [House Speaker] Nancy Pelosi.”
Mucarsel-Powell has voted with President Trump less than 5% of the time, according to FiveThirtyEight data. However, in a district which Trump lost by 16 points, that’s right around what would be expected, according to the site’s analysis.
Markoff, meanwhile, pointed to Trump’s embrace of Giménez as a potential problem for the Republican.
“With Joe Biden certain to win this district by double-digits, it’s on Carlos Gimenez to explain how his vocal support for Trump — and his endorsement from Trump — will help him win this district,” Markoff said.
