Poll finds Eric Lynn narrowly edging out Anna Paulina Luna, voters cite abortion, LGBTQ rights

Lynn_Luna
The poll predicts Luna as the likely Republican Primary winner, with the former 2020 nominee leading in polls among her Republican opponents.

A new poll predicts a tight race for Florida’s 13th Congressional District between Democratic nominee Eric Lynn and GOP frontrunner Anna Paulina Luna.

The recently released survey, conducted by David Binder Research, polled 600 likely November voters within CD 13 between June 25 to June 28. The survey used mixed modes of telephone (mobile and landline) and online text-to-web. The margin of error is ±4 at the 95% confidence level. The poll was commissioned by Progress Pinellas.

The poll found Lynn holding a marginal lead over Luna, 45% to 43%, making for a tight race that falls into the poll’s margin of error.

Luna’s camp disputes the validity of the poll.

“This ‘poll’ refuses to disclose its partisan splits because it’s a fake poll,” said James Blair, a consultant for Luna. “The pollster has called 33% of races correctly, according to Nate Silver/538. The District went Trump +7 points in 2022. It has a 31,000+ and growing Republican voter registration advantage.”

Unsurprisingly, Lynn led among Democrats, 79% to 11%, and Luna led among Republicans 74% to 14%. But among critical unaffiliated voters, Lynn led Luna by a wide margin, 47% to 35%.

Overall, those who chose Lynn appeared more secure in their decision. When asked “who would you vote for if the election were held today?” 38% of voters who chose Lynn said they’d “definitely” vote for the Democrat, while 6% said they might change their mind and 1% saying they just “lean” toward Lynn. For Luna, 36% of voters who selected her said they’d “definitely” vote for her, 5% said they might change their mind and 2% said lean.

So, why might the right-leaning district support Lynn?

Voters polled expressed strong support for a candidate “who will keep politicians and the government out of people’s personal decisions on abortion and who they marry,” with 78% of voters supporting this candidate and only 14% opposing.

“Anna Paulina is going to stomp Eric Lynn,” said Blair, the consultant to Luna. “Even Eric Lynn knows that. His own campaign poll published at the end of June shows Anna +9. Loaded polls are a tool of shady consultants and failed campaigns that want to mislead their donors.”

That’s in line with recent internal polling released by the Lynn campaign, which found after presenting information on both candidates’ positions, 52% support Lynn compared to 42% who stick with Luna and 8% who remain undecided.

The poll predicts Luna as the likely Republican Primary winner, with the former 2020 nominee leading in polls among her Republican opponents. The GOP field is crowded this election cycle, including former prosecutor Kevin Hayslett, nonprofit founder Audrey Henson, Republican strategist Amanda Makki and Christine Quinn. Makki lost the Republican Primary to Luna in 2020.

Luna lost to incumbent Rep. Charlie Crist in the more Democrat-friendly district. Crist this year is running for Governor. Luna has already landed the backing of several conservative groups including Club for Growth, and the new makeup of the district makes it a top prospect to flip red this fall.

Lynn at one point was part of a competitive Democratic field including two prominent state lawmakers. But Gov. Ron DeSantis signed a controversial map that shifted CD 13 from a district where Democrat Joe Biden was supported by 51.36% of voters in 2020 to one where Republican Donald Trump led with 52.74% of the vote. That prompted both Reps. Ben Diamond and Michele Rayner-Goolsby to leave the congressional field.

Crist has endorsed Lynn as his preferred successor for the Pinellas County district.

Kelly Hayes

Kelly Hayes studied journalism and political science at the University of Florida. Kelly was born and raised in Tampa Bay. A recent graduate, she enjoys government and legal reporting. She has experience covering the Florida Legislature as well as local government, and is a proud Alligator alum. You can reach Kelly at [email protected]


5 comments

  • D.B. Wessen

    July 16, 2022 at 1:13 pm

    “Progress Pinellas”. Sure. Why don’t you print the results of a poll commissioned by “AR-15 Means All Right For Me”? We’ll see how it does with the margin for error.

  • YYep

    July 16, 2022 at 4:55 pm

    All nice but no law experience with the constitution I like to test that.

  • YYep

    July 16, 2022 at 4:58 pm

    Setting foundation’s are real and grounds to except

  • Melania

    July 18, 2022 at 7:38 am

    Out party can’t take back power until we agree to abide by our principles and stay out of peoples bedrooms and womens wombs. Religious nut jobs and DeSantis are ruining it for Fl republicans…

    • Thin Kingood

      July 18, 2022 at 12:39 pm

      Start thinking with your brains and not with your genitals! What is between your ears should matter to you more than what is between your legs.

Comments are closed.


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