Latest poll from Iowa: Donald Trump 44%, Ron DeSantis 21%

'No matter how you spin it, Trump is ahead in Iowa by a significant margin.'

After a couple of polls that arguably demonstrate gains in Iowa for Ron DeSantis, a new survey offers a less charitable snapshot of Republican sentiment.

The latest poll from Victory Insights shows Donald Trump more than doubling his support over the Florida Governor among likely caucus participants. Trump is preferred by 44% of respondents, with DeSantis taking just 21%.

Other candidates struggle by comparison.

U.S. Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina has 6% support and former United Nations envoy Nikki Haley and former Vice President Mike Pence each have 5%.

In a hypothetical two-way matchup between Trump and DeSantis, the two seem to split the vote for other candidates. Trump takes 49% and DeSantis takes 32%, suggesting not all supporters of marginal candidates are Never Trumpers.

The polling memo pushes back on favorable polling advanced by the DeSantis  Never Back Down super PAC, polling the Governor trumpeted at a state event about Mexican border security held in Arizona this week.

“Never Back Down reported a 10-point margin between the two front-runners, but our numbers show Trump leading by 23 points among the crowded field. Even if the race narrowed to a head-to-head contest against DeSantis, Trump would maintain a lead of just over 16 (percentage points). No matter how you spin it, Trump is ahead in Iowa by a significant margin.”

One trend holds true, the pollsters note. The more money a voter makes, the more they are likely to like DeSantis.

“Our poll also provides further evidence for one assertion that we’ve held for many months now: Trump’s base is the lower class, while DeSantis’s base is the upper class. Trump wins lower-class voters by 29 (percentage points), while upper-class Iowans only prefer him to DeSantis by 6 (percentage points).”

DeSantis did make progress from an April Victory Insights poll of 400 likely Iowa caucus participants, Trump led DeSantis 54% to 20% in a crowded field, and 59% to 41% when the field was reduced to just those two names.

However, the new Victory Insights poll isn’t as strong for the Governor as another poll released this week. A new National Research Inc. poll commissioned by American Greatness shows the Governor trails Trump, 39% to 24%.

Other polls aren’t so strong for DeSantis.

An Emerson College survey from May shows Trump ahead of DeSantis, 62% to 20%.

In a McLaughlin and Associates poll conducted in late April, Trump led DeSantis in a full field of names, 54% to 20%. A hypothetical two-way battle between Trump and DeSantis also goes the former President’s way, 57% to 35%, with 8% undecided.

In a survey conducted by Cygnal for Iowans for Tax Relief, the former President led DeSantis, 37% to 30%. An additional 19% of respondents were undecided, with other candidates struggling for support.

In still another post-indictment poll of the Iowa race, a J.L. Partners survey showed Trump up 41% to 26% in a crowded field.

A.G. Gancarski

A.G. Gancarski has written for since 2014. He is based in Northeast Florida. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter: @AGGancarski


  • TJC

    June 9, 2023 at 1:20 pm

    Most Republicans want their white male would-be dictator back. It’s laughable for Tim Scott to believe they would ever let a Black man be their candidate, laughable for Nikki Haley to think they want a uterus in the Oval Office (except to vacuum), laughable for Pence to think they will ever forgive him for upholding the Constitution rather than lie for Trump.
    That’s simply who most Republicans are. Simple.

  • Ocean Joe

    June 9, 2023 at 2:06 pm

    The newest indictment means Trump will go from double lead to triple. Fun to watch these folks circle the wagons to protect their farm subsidies, corporate welfare and freedom to hate.

    That said, a fresh indictment, the passing of James Watt and Pat Robertson, and Biden hasn’t fallen down in days means this was a very good week.


    June 9, 2023 at 2:38 pm

    hope trump goes to jail and he does not make it to the president office. Than we will be in trouble more than we are.

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  • Ed Dot Com 👍

    June 9, 2023 at 5:42 pm

    GOP voters love felons in office but not voting. These people have lost it and should be declared incompetent to vote.

Comments are closed.


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