Last Call for 7.1.24 — A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics

Last Call — A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.

First Shot

The first post-debate polling update from Morning Consult shows what many likely expected: Donald Trump now leads President Joe Biden — but not by much.

The latest data, collected June 28-30, found Trump with a one-point edge over the incumbent, 44%-43%, among registered voters nationwide. Another 8% say they plan to vote for someone else while 5% remain undecided.

It’s a minimal shift from last week’s pre-debate memo when the candidates were tied at 44% each, but other data points indicate voters are feeling wobbly about Biden’s less-than-impressive performance last week.

Just 37% of voters told Morning Consult they believe Biden is mentally fit, the fewest since the pollster started asking voters the question four years ago. Just as striking: Only two in three registered Democrats (68%) think the 81-year-old President is fit to serve as Commander in Chief, another low watermark for Biden.

While Biden’s debate performance likely hurt his standing, his party’s public and continuing post-debate shame isn’t doing him any favors — Morning Consult said voters were 31 points more likely to report having seen, read or heard something negative than positive about Biden (55%-24%), which logs another new low in a poll already brimming with them.

Still, Biden’s stumbles haven’t necessarily endeared Trump to voters.

According to Morning Consult, Biden still holds a higher net favorability rating than the former President, giving him a nine-week streak in the poll and making this his longest turn in the lead since early 2023.

It should be noted that having a “higher” favorability does not mean he has a “high” one. The debate may have dented Biden’s top-line. Still, it didn’t show any measurable impact on what has heretofore been a constant in this contest: A majority of voters dislike both candidates. 

Evening Reads

—”The road to a crisis: How Democrats let Joe Biden glide to renomination” via Jim Rutenberg and Adam Nagourney of The New York Times

—”The inevitability of Biden’s reckoning” via Molly Ball of The Wall Street Journal

—“Biden has a bigger problem than the debate” via Stephanie McCrummen of The Atlantic

—”What Donald Trump’s VP pick could mean for 2028” via Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight

—”Biden campaign’s reset after disastrous debate looks a lot like business as usual” via Colleen Long and Will Weissert of The Associated Press

—”The case for Biden staying in the race” via Jay Caspian Kang of The New Yorker

—”Supreme Court grants Trump immunity from prosecution for ‘official’ acts” via Nikki McCann Ramirez and Asawin Suebsaeng of Rolling Stone

—”Supreme Court orders second look at Texas and Florida social media laws” via Justin Jouvenal, Cat Zakrzewski and Will Oremus of The Washington Post

—“Meet the sporadic voters who could decide the 2024 Election” via Mark Murray and Katherine Koretski of NBC News

—”Search of Christian Ziegler’s cellphone was illegal, judge says” via Justin Garcia of the Tampa Bay Times

Quote of the Day

“We weren’t attempting to be misleading. We were trying to deal with a situation when we had no idea what the baseline would be in November. And anybody listening to the tapes (of the meetings), to the kinds of discussion we had, would know that.”

— State economist Amy Baker, defending the original financial impact statement for Amendment 4.

Put It on the Tab

Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.

Gov. Ron DeSantis may be right that the ‘jig’ is up for Biden’s “Weekend at Bernie’s” presidency, but as the sequel made clear, the dead can walk again right after a cringy Island Voodoo scene.

As for the Governor’s order, a Double or Nothing pairs well with the rapid rise in his personal fortunes.

State economists on Monday went over ballot wording that will accompany the citizen initiative on abortion access of abortion rights amendment in November. No, this isn’t déjà vu … but this is.

Breakthrough Insights

Tune In

USMNT looks to bounce back in Copa America

After a brutal loss to Panama in the Copa América group stage on Thursday, the U.S. Men’s National Team faces Uruguay tonight needing a result to advance to the tournament’s knockout round (9 p.m., ET, FS1).

After opening the group stage with a dominating win over Bolivia, the U.S. played a man down for most of the match against Panama after winger Tim Weah was red-carded after hitting Panama’s Roderick Miller in the back of the head in the 18th minute of the match. Weah will not play against Uruguay; if the U.S. advances to the knockout round, he will also miss the following game.

The group set up well for the United States as each game was expected to be more difficult than the last. An expectation for at least a draw against Panama was squashed in the 83rd minute when Jose Fajardo slotted a shot past U.S. goalkeeper Ethan Horvath. Horvath had come on at halftime to replace the injured Matt Turner.

Uruguay has dominated the group stage, beating Bolivia and Panama by seven combined goals. 

Tonight’s meeting is the first between the two countries on the soccer pitch since a scoreless draw on June 5, 2022. 

___

Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.