Millions of dollars have been spent smearing Tom Leek in SD 7. Will David Shoar enjoy the benefit?

Tom Leek gets a big thumbs-up from Ron DeSantis.

Rep. Tom Leek has been well-liked among fellow Republicans in the Legislature. But former St. Johns Sheriff David Shoar, with the backing of former President Donald Trump, is looking to block Leek’s path to an open Senate seat.

Leek and Shoar will face each other in a Republican Primary on Aug. 20, where voters will decide if they prefer one of these veteran pols or former wrestler Gerry James. The winner will head into November as the clear front-runner in the Senate District 7 race.

The open race to succeed Sen. Travis Hutson produced millions in spending on airwaves, much of that by outside groups.

Leek started the year as a favorite, quickly landing the support of the Florida Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee and from numerous colleagues within the House, including current Speaker Paul Renner.

“The people who have endorsed me are people who know me. People who I have worked directly with over the last eight years. People who know what I can do,” Leek, an Ormond Beach Republican, said.

“I am honored to have the strong support of Senate District 7 voters and the endorsement of Gov. Ron DeSantis, U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, Congressmen Mike Waltz and Cory Mills, all four of the district’s four sheriffs, the NRA, law enforcement and firefighters, and so many others who know me as the only conservative candidate who is ready to lead on day one. We are not taking anything for granted, committing our efforts to get out the vote heading into the final days of the Aug. 20 primary election. We must fight off the personal injury billboard lawyers who are 100% funding one of my opponents and turn back the Democrats trying to manipulate our Republican Primary. I ask you to vote for me, the true Republican conservative in this important election.”

And within the Legislature for the last eight years, he’s taken assignments reserved for members with respect for impartiality, including Chair positions for the House Public Ethics and Integrity Committee and the House Redistricting Committee.

Last year, he rose to his highest position of influence, chairing the powerful House Appropriations Committee, holding greater sway over the $117.5 billion budget passed by the Legislature than any lawmaker but Renner himself.

For much of the year, Leek faced only James, now a conservative activist who two years ago challenged Hutson and lost by double-digits.

But the dynamic of the race changed significantly in the Spring as a mysterious new political committee, The Truth Matters, started airing ads attacking Leek. Funded by trial lawyers across the state and chaired by a lawyer at Woolsey Morcom, the group for months punished Leek for his role in crafting legislation seeking to curb lawsuit abuse.

Shoar, a former Sheriff-turned-investigator for Woolsey Morcom, jumped into the Senate contest in June, presenting himself as an alternative to Leek and the excesses of the Legislature.

“Republicanism is about limited government, and getting as much power away from the federal and state government as we can,” Shoar said. “We’ve lost our way a little bit.”

The Truth Matters through Aug. 2 has reported more than $4 million in spending in the race, starting with $1.7 million in anti-Leek blasts in April and continuing through the start of this month. The group has seen some of Florida’s most prominent lawyers, including John Morgan of Orlando, appear in videos trashing Leek. But it also has put up biographical ads touting Shoar as a solid alternative.

Leek has responded with his own ads calling Shoar a RINO, or ‘Republican in Name Only.’

Shoar hasn’t done nearly as much campaigning himself, raising $71,000 in his official campaign account but spending less than $32,000 through Aug. 2. He hasn’t set up a campaign website, or even social media accounts.

Meanwhile, Leek has spent about $568,000 through the same date, and closed the period with $96,000 in cash on hand. The Friends of Tom Leek political committee spent another $1.4 million on top of that.

Over months of campaigning, Leek announced endorsements by various elected officials, from sitting Sheriffs and Congressman up to Gov. Ron DeSantis.

But Shoar secured one of the most important in Republican politics: the backing of Trump. That sets the race up as a bit of a proxy battle between the 2024 Republican presidential nominee and DeSantis, who challenged Trump unsuccessfully for the nomination earlier this year.

Meanwhile, James has largely stayed out of the fray and allowed Leek and Shoar to focus on one another. He presented himself as an alternative to the region’s existing political class.

“Florida needs new leadership. Leadership that is owned neither by the insurance companies nor the lawyers. I know a guy!” James posted on social media.

And while he didn’t come too close to beating Hutson two years ago, he’s the only candidate running who can claim he already had 43% of Republicans vote for him in a Primary under these district lines. His support fell shy of the incumbent’s majority but could be enough to win the nomination in a three-person race.

Once Republican voters decide the nominee, the winner will advance to a General Election against George “T” Hill in November. But the district leans heavily Republican. More than 69% of voters supported DeSantis’ re-election in 2022 and more than 62% backed Trump in the 2020 Presidential Election.