Sunburn – The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics – 8.16.24

Good Friday morning.

AARP Florida has launched an official resource page for the 2024 Primary and General Elections. The site contains up-to-date information on how to vote, links to resources educating voters about common election-related scams, community conversations with local lawmakers and other tools to ensure older Floridians are prepared for Election Day.

The community conversations are broken down by region, with candidates from various districts offering insight into their races in the Orlando area and Tampa Bay. The Orlando conversations include candidates for Florida’s 8th and 10th Congressional Districts, while the Tampa Bay conversations are with candidates for Congressional Districts 13 and 14. Other conversations will be added as they are conducted.

Common scams to watch out for, which are documented on the site, include voter registration scams in which bad actors attempt to get personal information from victims or convince them to download malware through a phishing link or malicious website or app. Scammers also attempt to fraudulently collect political donations. The site includes tips for avoiding such scams, like donating through official websites, checking an organization’s nonprofit status or ensuring a PAC is registered with the FEC.

More information is available here.

— SITUATIONAL AWARENESS —

—@HillaryClinton: “Childless cat ladies …” “Postmenopausal females …” Is the Republican ticket aware that women can vote?

—@JonathanChait: (Donald) Trump is employing the trick of “calling a news conference” as a way to get cable news to give camera time as he reads from a teleprompter.

—@LoganR2WH: If (Jon) Tester loses Montana, Democrats will need to flip either Florida or Texas to keep their majority. In my Senate forecast at RacetotheWH, I give Democrats a 24% and 29% chance at winning them, respectively.

—@SteveSchale: One upside of the FAU poll (which I think it is a bit optimistic), it increases the chance we will get a Quinnipiac Poll down here, which makes me happy because absolutely nothing unites Florida’s bipartisan hack caucus like dumping on a Q poll.

Tweet, tweet:

—@GovGoneWild: The State of Florida should invite @ChilesJordan to Session and give her a bronze medal to replace the one that was taken away from her AND a gold one for 1st place in Statesmanship.

Tweet, tweet:

—@Fineout: The Athletic reports this was done for financial reasons. But (Robert) Griffin (III) this week came to the defense of FSU after Paul Finebaum trashed them. Plus, the other person let go this week is Samantha Ponder. Ponder is married to former FSU QB Christian Ponder who was critical of snub

—@SkipFoster: ESPN layoff criteria: Anybody who says nice things about FSU or who is married to a former FSU player. By the way, who does a layoff of TWO people? @ESPN annual revenue is $16 billion — even if these two made a $1 million a year that’s barely 0.001 % of annual revenue. SMH

— DAYS UNTIL —

Democratic National Convention begins – 3; ‘Homicide: Life on the Street’ begins streaming on Peacock – 3; Florida Primary – 4; FBHA’s annual conference, BHCon, begins – 5; second Disaster Preparedness Sales Tax Holiday begins – 8; Florida Lineworker Appreciation Day — 10; Georgia Tech to face Florida State in 2024 opener in Dublin – 10; UCF opens the season by hosting New Hampshire at FBC Mortgage Stadium – 12; Tool Time Sales Tax Holiday begins – 17; GOP Victory Dinner — 22; 2024 NFL season kicks off – 22; Packers will face Eagles in Brazil – 22; Trump/Kamala Harris debate – 25; ‘The Old Man’ season two debuts – 27; ‘The Penguin’ premieres – 34; the Laver Cup begins – 35; JD Vance/Tim Walz Vice-Presidential Debate – 46; Jason Reitman’s ‘Saturday Night’ premieres – 56; Lin-Manuel Miranda’s concept album based on the cult movie ‘The Warriors’ drops – 63; Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour stops in Miami – 65; 2024 Florida Chamber Annual Meeting & Future of Florida Forum – 72; Florida TaxWatch’s 45th Annual Meeting – 80; 2024 Presidential Election – 81; second half of Yellowstone season five premieres – 85; Taylor Sheridan’s ‘Landman’ premieres – 93; Legislature’s 2025 Organizational Session – 97; Las Vegas Grand Prix – 97; ‘Moana 2’ premieres – 103; 2024 Florida Chamber Annual Insurance Summit begins – 108; MLS Cup 2024 – 114; ‘Mufasa: The Lion King’ premieres – 126; College Football Playoff begins – 128; ‘Squid Game’ season 2 premieres – 132; Fiesta, Peach, Rose & Sugar Bowls – 138; Orange Bowl – 146; Sugar Bowl – 148; ‘Severance’ season two debuts – 154; ‘Captain America: Brave New World’ premieres – 182; the 2025 Oscars – 198; Florida’s 2025 Legislative Session begins – 200; 2025 Session ends – 259; ‘Thunderbolts’ premieres – 346; ‘Fantastic Four – First Steps’ premieres – 346; ‘Blade’ reboot premieres – 453; ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ premieres – 490; ‘Avengers 5’ premieres – 627; Untitled ‘Star Wars’ movie premieres – 644; FIFA World Cup 26™ final – 664; FIFA World Cup 26™ final match – 702; ‘The Batman 2’ premieres – 781; Another untitled ‘Star Wars’ movie premieres – 855; ‘Avengers: Secret Wars’ premieres – 995; 2028 Los Angeles Olympics Opening Ceremony — 1,428; ‘Avatar 4’ premieres – 1,954; ‘Avatar 5’ premieres – 2,675.

— TOP STORY —

“Florida smoking ban for public places proposed in anticipation of legalized weed” via Jeffrey Schweers of the Orlando Sentinel — Sen. Joe Gruters of Sarasota, a former Chair of the Republican Party of Florida, two weeks ago endorsed Amendment 3, which would make marijuana legal for adults 21 and older if 60% or more voters approve it Nov. 5.

He said he wants the Legislature to erect guardrails to ensure that Florida doesn’t become another Las Vegas or New York where legalized marijuana has led to complaints about the smell.

Gov. Ron DeSantis has voiced strong opposition to Amendment 3, saying it would make the entire state smell like pot. He has set up a political committee to raise money to fight its passage.

“The feedback I got when I came out in favor of Amendment 3 was the smell, so we want to follow Arizona’s law and ban smoking in all public places,” Gruters said during a virtual news conference Thursday, where he was joined by two legislative colleagues.

Arizona has had a voter-approved law that bans smoking in most public places since 2006. It legalized recreational marijuana in 2020. Florida’s current law allows local governments to ban smoking at their beaches and parks.

Gruters said his proposed bill, which the Florida Legislature would take up next year, would ban smoking anywhere the public has access, including parks, beaches, sidewalks, restaurants and bars. The bill would define “public places” to include common areas of “schools, hospitals, government buildings, apartment buildings, office buildings, lodging establishments, restaurants, transportation facilities and retail shops.”

It would regulate all manner of smoking, including vaping, and all products including marijuana and tobacco, Gruters said, adding that it is just a starting place for legislative debate.

— 2024 — PRESIDENTIAL —

“Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in five battleground states, poll finds” via Taylor Wilson of USA Today — Harris is ahead or tied with Trump in six of seven battleground states, according to a new survey out yesterday. The latest data erases the leads Trump saw before President Joe Biden dropped out of the race last month. The Cook Political Report survey of seven key swing states found Harris leading Trump in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Arizona, and tied with him in Georgia. Nevada is the only battleground state that Trump still leads, the poll found. Harris’ lead in three states is within the margin of error.

“Will Harris’ polling lead last? Our polling expert explains.” via Steven Shephard of POLITICO — Harris has that new-candidate shine and it’s propelled her into the lead. Just three weeks into her campaign, the Vice President is riding a wave of support in the horserace polling, reversing a persistent gap that Biden was never able to overcome. But it’s hard to know how real — or durable — that is. It’s been a historic month in American politics, and in a vacuum, any one of its major events would shake the race and create a temporary bump in the polls: the July 13 assassination attempt on Trump, Biden dropping out of the race, Harris picking a vice-presidential candidate. But it’s impossible to disentangle the effects of any single event to establish the baseline state of the race, and we’re about to head into yet another moment that would normally move the needle: next week’s Democratic convention.

“Harris has opened up a second path to victory” via Lenny Bronner of The Washington Post — A lot has changed in the presidential race over the last three weeks. Since Biden exited the race July 21 and passed the baton to Harris the race has effectively reversed itself. It is no exaggeration to state that Harris would be the favorite to win the White House, according to our polling model, if the presidential contest were held today. Our modeling shows that Harris has two paths to possible success: the Rust Belt states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and the Sun Belt states of Georgia, Arizona and Nevada as well as North Carolina (she could win in either region and still claim the White House). Meanwhile, Trump must win both the Rust Belt and Sun Belt to triumph.

“Republicans practically beg Trump to change it up. He’s not listening.” via Aaron Blake of The Washington Post — Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway offered a recipe this week for Trump’s struggling 2024 campaign: “The winning formula for President Trump is very plain to see: It’s fewer insults, more insights and [a] policy contrast.” Fellow former Trump adviser Peter Navarro echoed that. “When Trump attacks Harris personally rather than on policy, Harris’s support among swing voters rises — particularly among women,” Navarro said. Trump is not listening. At a rally Wednesday in Asheville, North Carolina, Trump called Harris “crazy,” “stupid” and a “lunatic,” adding that “she’s not smart, she’s not intelligent.” He repeatedly derided her laugh, including saying that it’s “career threatening. That’s a laugh of a person with some big problems.”

“Trump’s economic pitch derailed by off-message rants at North Carolina rally” via Bill Barrow of The Associated Press — Trump made little effort to stay on message Wednesday at a rally in North Carolina that his campaign billed as a big economic address, mixing pledges to slash energy prices and “unleash economic abundance” with familiar off-script tangents on Democratic nominee Harris’ laugh, the mechanics of wind energy and Biden’s son. The 75-minute speech featured a litany of broad policy ideas and even grander promises to end inflation, bolster already record-level U.S. energy production and raise Americans’ standard of living. But those pronouncements were often lost in Trump’s typically freewheeling, grievance-laden style that has made it difficult for him to answer the enthusiasm of Harris’ nascent campaign.

“JD Vance agrees to debate Tim Walz on Oct. 1” via Erin Doherty of Axios — Vance said he accepted an invitation from CBS News for a vice presidential debate on Oct. 1. Walz said earlier this week that he had accepted the Oct. 1 invitation, meaning the two running mates will share the stage at least once before the election. Vance also said that he accepted an invite from CNN for a VP debate on Sept. 18. The Harris campaign responded in a statement that “the debate about debates is over” and indicated that there will only be one VP debate. “Donald Trump’s campaign accepted our proposal for three debates — two presidential and a vice-presidential debate,” Harris-Walz Communications Director Michael Tyler said.

“‘The guy is ambitious’: How Walz got on Harris’ radar — and onto the 2024 ticket” via Holly Otterbein, Elena Schneider and Meredith Lee Hill of POLITICO — The Democratic Governors Association had an enviable problem last December. After better-than-projected Midterms, it had an unexpectedly large pool of candidates who could potentially lead the agenda-setting group — and out of them, they chose a Midwestern Governor who was not known to have his eye on the West Wing. What that Governor, Walz, did with that job is a big part of the reason he’s Harris’ running mate now. Walz’s use of the DGA to expand his profile and strengthen his relationships with powerful figures in the party and the press suggested he was more politically calculating than his unassuming demeanor made it seem.

“A disappearing President steps back into the limelight” via Jess Bidgood of The New York Times — For a few minutes on Thursday afternoon, Biden stood silently onstage in Maryland, his hands folded and his body swaying ever so softly. On one side of him was Harris, heaping praise on him; hovering on the other side was Harris’ face again, emblazoned on a shirt worn by a member of the crowd. It was the pair’s first time onstage together since Biden withdrew from the presidential race. The appearance, three and a half weeks in the making, had great potential for awkwardness: an event for the Biden White House with the vibe of a Harris campaign rally. If it looked like Biden was living in Harris’ world now, he kept the focus on Trump. “Let me tell you what our Project 2025 is,” Biden said, evoking a set of conservative policy plans drawn up by allies of Trump once he stepped to the microphone. “Beat the hell out of ’em.”

“Soon-to-be jobless Joe Biden unloads on Trump like never before” via Mini Racker of The Daily Beast — Biden has come out swinging like never before against Trump. “The guy we’re running against, what’s his name?” Biden asked as the crowd laughed during his first campaign trail appearance with Harris on Thursday. “Donald Dump? Or Donald Whatever?” In a fiery 22-minute speech at a Prince George’s County gymnasium in Maryland, Biden roared about his policy accomplishments, poked fun at concerns about his age, and hit hard against the man who is no longer his opponent. Among adoring fans in a blue state, the President seemed perhaps even more determined to win in November than he did when he was actually on the presidential ticket. “Let me tell you what our Project 2025 is,” he said later. “Beat the hell out of them!”

“Trump gambles on outside groups to finance voter outreach efforts” via Theodore Schleifer of The New York Times — The Republican campaign for President is quietly being remade by new federal guidelines that empower big-money groups and threaten to undermine party control well beyond the 2024 Election. Trump’s team has enlisted some of these groups to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to knock on hundreds of thousands of doors across the country — saving the campaign significant money in the process. But the Trump campaign is making a serious gamble in doing so, betting that these outside groups, which they do not directly control, can carry out their marching orders without accountability.

“Hidden-camera video shows Project 2025 co-author discussing his secret work preparing for a second Trump term” via Curt Devine, Casey Tolan, Audrey Ash and Kyung Lah of CNN — Last month, Russell Vought sat in a five-star Washington, D.C., hotel suite, bowing his head in prayer with two men he thought were relatives of a wealthy conservative donor. Vought, one of the key authors of Project 2025, a right-wing blueprint for a second Trump term, expected the meeting would help his think tank secure a substantial contribution. For nearly two hours, he talked candidly about his behind-the-scenes work to prepare policy for Trump, his expansive views on presidential power, his plans to restrict pornography and immigration, and his complaints that the GOP was too focused on “religious liberty” instead of “Christian nation-ism.” But the men Vought was talking to actually worked for a British journalism nonprofit and were secretly recording him the entire time. The nonprofit, the Centre for Climate Reporting, published a video of the meeting on Thursday – offering a window into the thinking of one of the top policy minds of the MAGA movement, who’s been floated as a possible White House chief of staff.

“Trump asks judge to delay sentencing in hush money case until after November election” via The Associated Press — Trump is asking the judge in his New York hush money criminal case to delay his sentencing until after the November presidential election. In a letter made public Thursday, lawyers for the former President and current Republican nominee suggested that sentencing Trump as scheduled on Sept. 18 — about seven weeks before Election Day — would amount to election interference. Trump’s lawyers wrote that a delay would also allow Trump time to weigh the next steps after the trial judge, Juan M. Merchan, is expected to rule on Sept. 16 on the defense’s request to overturn the verdict and dismiss the case because of the U.S. Supreme Court’s July presidential immunity ruling. “There is no basis for continuing to rush,” Trump lawyers Todd Blanche and Emil Bove wrote. Blanche and Bove sent the letter to Merchan on Wednesday after the judge rejected the defense’s latest request that he step aside from the case.

“America united? A lot more than you might think” via William F. Felice of the Tampa Bay Times — On a recent episode of “The Daily Show,” Jon Stewart expressed agreement with Bill O’Reilly’s contention that over 70% of Americans were “good people” who “don’t want acrimony” and “don’t want violence.” These influential commentators from the left and the right seem to agree that the vast majority does not view the opposing party as “the enemy” and does not want to see the opposition “destroyed.”

— 2024 — FLORIDA —

“Trump casts ballot early in Florida Primary: Here’s what he has said about early voting” via Nicholas Kerr, Soo Rin Kim, Kelsey Walsh, and Lalee Ibssa of ABC News — Trump voted early in the Florida Republican Primary on Wednesday, casting his ballot at a polling location near his home in Palm Beach. But Trump’s participation in early voting offers a stark contrast to some of his previous criticisms of the practice. Walking out of the polling site on Wednesday, Trump called it a “great honor to vote” and praised the “fantastic job” done by the poll workers. However, he has repeatedly flip-flopped in his messaging to supporters, sometimes encouraging them to vote early or by mail — while at other times making false and misleading claims about the security of the process.

“Florida election officials warn of false rumor about ballot markings days before the state’s Primary” via Ali Swenson of The Associated Press — An unfounded claim that election workers will invalidate ballots by writing on them is prompting election clerks in Florida to correct the record ahead of next week’s state Primary. Clerks in Collier and Escambia counties, home to Naples and Pensacola, are reassuring voters that the warning that some have encountered on social media and in texting conversations is inaccurate and that ballot markings will not disqualify their votes. Election officials say the claim, which has circulated online nationwide since at least 2020, is an example of the kind of misinformation that often spreads among well-meaning voters but threatens to erode trust in the voting process. The false claim comes as Trump has primed his supporters, without evidence, to expect election workers and partisan actors to meddle with the results. Polls also show that confidence in election results is at historic lows.

“Florida Republicans are dominating Primary turnout – potential November implications” via Eric Daugherty of Florida’s Voice — Heading into the Tuesday, Aug. 20 Primary in Florida, statewide Republicans are dominating Democrats in turnout in the early and mail-in voting. Early voting is set to wrap up in the next couple of days, with Election Day being Tuesday, and as tracked by Florida’s Voice using data from all 67 counties, Republicans lead by over 7%, or over 100,000 voters, compared to Democrats. For comparison, in the 2022 Primary, Democrats eclipsed Republicans in the early/mail-in turnout by around 5%, and in 2020, by around 10%.

“Rick Scott says Harris’ price controls proposal should ‘terrify every American’” via Owen Girard of Florida’s Voice — Sen. Scott warned of Harris’ reported plan to introduce price controls in order to combat inflation in the United States. “Tomorrow, Vice President Harris, a person who has never built a business, doesn’t understand profit and loss, has never met payrolls, and who has never competed in a consumer market, is going to propose federal price controls,” Scott said. “That should terrify every American. She claims that Congress needs to ban ‘price gouging,’ which is already widely illegal and not the cause of high prices. The skyrocketing prices created by the Biden-Harris administration aren’t price-gouging, it’s inflation,” he said.

“Scott, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell near inevitable November battle” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics — The Primaries on both sides of Florida’s U.S. Senate race are leaving little room for doubt, even as early voting is underway. U.S. Sen. Scott and his likely Democratic opponent, former U.S. Rep. Mucarsel-Powell, have been in General Election mode for months now. And the Aug. 20 Primary is expected to confirm a matchup that has been anticipated for the entire 2024 cycle. Both candidates are north of $4.3 million on hand and up against tomato can competition. Scott faces long shots John Columbus, who has just over $22,000 on hand, and Keith Gross, who has under $9,000 to spend. Likewise, Mucarsel-Powell has been essentially the presumptive nominee since she entered the race, and she also has nominal opposition.

“Mucarsel-Powell unveils her ‘Veterans for Debbie’ coalition” via Mitch Perry of Florida Phoenix — Mucarsel-Powell announced the launch of a “Veterans for Debbie” coalition on Thursday, declaring that she’s not conceding their votes to Scott, who served in the U.S. Navy and has been making regular stops with veterans as he campaigns for re-election. “I’m proud to have the support of brave Florida veterans who deserve a Senator who will fight for them,” Mucarsel-Powell said. “Time after time, Rick Scott has chosen his extreme agenda over the needs of our veterans. As Governor, Scott vetoed $15 million in funding for veterans’ programs, including aid for homeless veterans and veterans hoping to attend college. As Senator, he launched a national policy platform that would raise taxes on Florida’s active-duty service members and tried to block the historic PACT Act, which provides health care to toxic-exposed veterans. Our veterans should be able to not only survive but thrive in Florida, and they deserve better than a Senator who pretends to support them while actively working against their interests.”

“As Primary nears, Stanley Campbell lays out his case for Senate Dem nomination” via Mitch Perry of Florida Phoenix — Tech entrepreneur and former Naval pilot Campbell campaigned in South St. Petersburg on Tuesday night, telling a group of Baptist ministers that he intends to stun the Florida political world next week and capture the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. “I am a real solid candidate. I’m going to win the nomination, and I’m going to beat Rick Scott like he stole something,” Campbell said while speaking at the Mt. Zion Primitive Baptist Church. The Miami native and Florida A&M graduate is the decided underdog in the Aug. 20 Democratic Party Primary to former South Florida U.S. Rep. Mucarsel-Powell, who has out-fundraised him and received the lion’s share of endorsements in Florida and nationally as the party attempts to take down Scott in November.

— 2024 — DOWN-BALLOT —

“Two women directly affected by abortion bans in their states campaign in Florida for Harris-Walz” via Mitch Perry of Florida Phoenix — Texas resident Amanda Zurawski and Louisiana’s Kaitlyn Joshua made stops in Orlando and Tampa Wednesday on behalf of the Harris-Walz Democratic presidential campaign and described how their unsuccessful pregnancies were exacerbated by their physicians’ fears due to abortion bans. Two years ago, Zurawski was 18 weeks pregnant with a fetus that she and her husband had already named Willow when her cervix dilated prematurely, “and there was no way to safely reverse course.” This incident happened just a couple of days after Texas began enforcing a law effectively banning most abortions in the state. Despite the fact that her medical condition was fatal to the fetus and posed significant risks to her, Zurawski’s doctors refused to terminate the pregnancy because it could have been considered an illegal abortion rendering the doctor vulnerable to losing her license and going to jail.

—“Congressional Primaries abound in Central Florida, but will they lead to upsets in November?” via Steven Lemongello of the Orlando Sentinel

“Laurel Lee faces two Republicans challengers in GOP Primary as she runs for a second term” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — U.S. Rep. Lee ran for a newly drawn battleground seat in 2022 and ensured it was represented by a Republican from the jump. But she started this election cycle at odds with the effective leader of the national party. Trump startled the political world with a Truth Social post in March calling for a Primary challenge to Lee. Less than three months later, he reversed course and backed the incumbent in person on Capitol Hill. But before that, his call inspired two Republicans to challenge Lee in a GOP Primary to be decided on Aug. 20. Jennifer Barbosa and James Judge, two Republicans who previously challenged incumbents before in other districts, qualified in April in Florida’s 15th Congressional District. Lee said any tension with the party’s conservative flank is old news. When she secured Trump’s formal endorsement, she made clear her plans to be a loyal partner if both are elected to new terms in Washington.

“Can Eddie Speir’s anti-establishment antics deny Vern Buchanan the GOP nomination?” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — Over an 18-year congressional career, U.S. Rep. Buchanan hasn’t gone a cycle without opposition, either in the form of a Primary or a Democrat opposing him in the General Election. This year, he has both. He must contend first with a Republican Primary challenge by Inspiration Academy founder Speir, a Bradenton Republican hoping to seize on anti-establishment energy. Republicans in Florida’s 16th Congressional District will weigh in on Aug. 20 whether they want Buchanan to complete a second decade serving Southwest Florida in Washington. Buchanan has brushed off accusations he’s not conservative enough for the job.

—2024 — DOWN-BALLOT 2 —

“Conservatives are pushing a ‘parental rights’ agenda in Florida School Board races. Will it work?” via Kate Payne of The Associated Press — DeSantis’ “parental rights” campaign didn’t win him the Republican presidential nomination, but he’s still waging that fight on another front: Florida’s schools, where the movement could have an impact on public education long after he leaves office. Though the seats are officially nonpartisan, DeSantis has endorsed 23 School Board candidates across 14 counties this cycle — and targeted 14 incumbent members. It’s part of his agenda to counter what he calls “woke” ideology in public schools. Much of the political debate in the races has hinged on “parents’ rights” at a time when both parties are fighting to win over the contested voting bloc of suburban women. The modern parental rights movement grew out of opposition to pandemic precautions in schools and is now animated by complaints about classroom instruction on identity, race and history. Katie Blaxberg wants to make School Board meetings boring again. But her campaign for an open seat on the Pinellas County School Board on Florida’s Gulf Coast has been anything but that.

“Tracie Davis’ Primary opponent says he can win. What’s his reasoning?” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics — The financial gap between incumbent Democratic Sen. Davis and Primary challenger Francky Jeanty is massive in SD 5. Jeanty had less than $900 cash on hand as of early August. A political newcomer, the Haitian American is a graduate of Edward Waters University (EWU), a published author of a motivational book, a self-described “educational consultant,” a former student recruiter for Keiser College, a former admissions counselor for EWU, and a former manager at a car rental dealership. Davis, who has been active in politics since 2015 and in Tallahassee since 2017, had nearly $59,000 as of Aug. 2. She also had roughly $197,000 in her political committee, Together We Stand. It’s a massive disparity. But Jeanty thinks he’s found the secret sauce to overcoming structural deficiencies in yet another Duval Democratic Primary closed by a write-in candidate.

“Randy Fine and Chuck Sheridan draw sharp contrast in SD 19 GOP Primary” via Eric Rogers of Florida Today — The Republican Primary race for Senate District 19 pits a local business owner with years of State Board service but no legislative experience against a longtime state legislator with a proven track record and a history of controversy. Retired Brevard County general contractor Sheridan faces Rep. Fine in the Aug. 20 GOP Primary for the Senate district currently held by Sen. Debbie Mayfield, who was prevented from running again due to term limits. (Mayfield is running instead for House District 32.) The winner will face Democrat Vance Ahrens in the Nov. 5 General Election. SD 19 covers most of Central and South Brevard from Port St. John and Cape Canaveral to Micco.

—”Angie Nixon looks to rebuff HD 13 challenge from Brenda Priestly Jackson” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics

Save the date:

“‘The choice is easy’: Fine endorses ‘MAGA Meg’ Weinberger for HD 94” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — Rep. Fine, one of the Legislature’s most outspoken conservative voices when it comes to culture war issues, is backing Palm Beach County Moms for Liberty Chair Weinberger for House District 94. “The choice is easy,” he said in a statement. “I am proud to endorse her.” Weinberg, an animal rescue nonprofit executive who earned the nickname “MAGA Meg” for her support of and from Trump and his allies, announced Fine’s endorsement Thursday. It came two days after DeSantis endorsed Weinberg’s Primary opponent, Anthony Aguirre, as his preferred successor to term-limited West Palm Beach Rep. Rick Roth in HD 94. DeSantis cited donations Weinberg and her husband made to Democrats as his reason for siding against her. Fine thinks the Governor is missing the bigger picture.

“Ron DeSantis endorses Anthony Aguirre for HD 94 as Primary race heats up” via Owen Girard of Florida’s Voice — House District 94 candidate Aguirre announced that he was officially endorsed by DeSantis, heating up the seat’s Republican Primary. “Anthony Aguirre is a strong conservative who has my support and endorsement for the Florida House of Representatives and I look forward to working with him in the legislature,” DeSantis said. “His opponent and her husband have donated money to Democrats like Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden and my former opponents, Andrew Gillum and Charlie Crist,” he explained. “Anthony will be a fighter for the values that we champion — lower taxes, law and order and putting our families first.”

—”Ashley Gantt seeks to repel two former lawmakers in Primary battle for HD 109” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics

—”Foreign affairs specialist, firefighter, nonprofit leader in three-way GOP clash for HD 115” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics

“Jeni Grieger, Stephanie Vanos go head-to-head for Orange County School Board” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics — An Orange County School Board race is attracting attention for the amount of fundraising and the undercurrent of deeper national political issues. Grieger and Vanos are running for the open District 6 seat. Current School Board member Karen Castor Dentel is throwing her hat in the ring for Orange County Supervisor of Elections. Dentel, meanwhile, is endorsing Vanos. Florida’s School Board races are supposed to be nonpartisan. But School Boards across the state in recent years have discussed everything from mask requirements during the COVID to book censorship and diversity initiatives. Grieger says she is concerned about the school’s literacy rates and wants to add “science-based, proven literacy programs, best-in-class that move the needle,” according to her website.

— STATEWIDE —

“Ernesto expected to become a major hurricane Friday” via Ashley Suter and Rachel Tucker of WFLA — Hurricane Ernesto is forecast to become a major hurricane on Friday as it nears Bermuda. Hurricane Ernesto has sustained winds near 85 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected within the next few days. Ernesto’s rains are expected to reach Bermuda later today and could cause flash flooding Friday and throughout the weekend. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the island. Bermuda is expected to get 4 to 8 inches of rainfall with a maximum of up to 12 inches. Dangerous rip currents are likely along the East Coast of the U.S. this weekend.

“DeSantis touts ‘freedom, and common-sense leadership’ while announcing record tourism numbers” via Kevin Accettulla of WFLA — DeSantis touted “freedom” and “common-sense leadership” while announcing record tourism numbers for the state in the second quarter of 2024. “Florida continues to set the standard as the top destination for tourists,” DeSantis said in a statement. “These impressive numbers reflect the success of our efforts to prioritize public safety, freedom, and common-sense leadership. These priorities make the Free State of Florida a most appealing place to visit.” Florida saw 34.2 million visitors in the second quarter, a 1.7% increase from 2023.

“State insurance regulators hail ninth new insurer to enter Florida market in 2024” via Anne Geggis of The Palm Beach Post — A new Florida insurer writing homeowner policies — in addition to other signs such as the slowing rate of premium increases — indicate the state’s insurance market is “strengthening,” according to the industry’s top state regulator. But that cheery assessment has been met with some skepticism. Nonetheless, Trident Reciprocal Exchange has been approved to write homeowner policies in Florida, the Office of Insurance Regulation (OIR) announced last week. The Lake Mary-based company is the ninth new insurance company this year to join the total marketplace of 167 companies permitted by state officials to do business in Florida. Also, Progressive Insurance executives met with OIR officials to reinforce their commitment to staying in Florida as premium increases have slowed and more and more property owners are leaving the state-backed, nonprofit insurer of last resort for private insurance providers.

“Shock, frustration, anger, desperation: The real-life toll of Florida’s six-week abortion ban” via Cindy Krischer Goodman of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel — On a Wednesday afternoon in a Tamarac abortion clinic, Eileen Diamond delivers the same news to the fourth patient in a row: “I am unable to help you here.” She tells the woman her ultrasound confirms she is more than six weeks into the pregnancy, and in Florida, the services the patient seeks are no longer a legal option. The woman stares at Diamond. “No, you have to help me,” she pleads, “I can’t afford another child.” Diamond, director of Benjamin Surgical Services International, knows the panic will soon turn to tears, and anger will follow.

“Florida’s new jobless claims mostly steady since last week” via Drew Dixon of Florida Politics — Initial weekly unemployment benefit claims held steady for the most part in Florida, with an increase of just 12 filings for the week ending Aug. 10. There were 5,350 first-time jobless filings in Florida before seasonal adjustments last week. That’s barely up from the previous week’s figure of 5,338, an increase of just 0.2%. Those numbers demonstrate the general trend this Summer, which has seen solid figures. Filings have fallen for seven out of the past nine weeks. The national picture showed a slight decrease in weekly initial unemployment claims for the week ending Aug. 10. There were 199,530 first-time jobless claims last week, before seasonal adjustments. That’s a decrease of 4,500 from the previous week or a 2.2% drop.

— D. C. MATTERS —

“Biden voices support for new elections in Venezuela” via Eric Bazail-Eimil of POLITICO — Biden said he supports Venezuela holding new elections, following calls from regional leaders to redo a vote both the U.S. and others have said appeared to have been rigged in favor of the sitting President. Asked by a reporter on the South Lawn of the White House if he agreed that the country should hold a re-vote, Biden said “I do.” U.S. officials have said previously that available data suggested opposition candidate Edmundo González had defeated Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. But the White House quickly walked back Biden’s comments. “The President was speaking to the absurdity of Maduro and his representatives not coming clean about the July 28 elections,” the National Security Council said in a statement.

“White House walks back Biden’s comments on new elections in Venezuela” via Nora Gamez Torres of the Miami Herald — Biden caused a stir on Thursday when he appeared to say he supports holding new presidential elections in Venezuela, following similar comments by his Brazilian counterpart earlier in the day. The South American nation is consumed by a political crisis after the Venezuelan National Electoral Council declared the country’s strongman, Maduro, as the winner of the July 28 election, with numbers widely believed to be fraudulent and contested by the opposition. On Thursday, a Voice of America reporter asked Biden, “Do you support new elections in Venezuela?” to which he replied, “I do,” during brief comments to reporters in the afternoon at the White House.

“Biden hails $7.5B savings after striking Big Pharma drug price deal” via Oliver Barnes and Lauren Fedor of Financial Times — Biden returned to the campaign trail in a victory lap for his administration’s efforts to negotiate lower drug prices, as the White House announced it had struck deals with pharmaceutical groups to cap prices on 10 of the country’s most expensive medicines. Thursday’s event in Maryland, just outside of Washington, D.C., also marked the first time that Biden had shared the stage with Harris since he announced last month that he was suspending his re-election bid and endorsing Harris as his successor. “Folks, I have an incredible partner, the progress we have made, and she is going to make one hell of a President,” Biden said, vowing Harris would continue his efforts to cut the cost of prescription drugs for consumers if given another four years in the White House.

“Russia appears to have diverted several thousand troops from occupied Ukraine to counter Kursk offensive, U.S. officials say” via Katie Bo Lillis and Natasha Bertrand of CNN — Russia appears to have diverted several thousand troops from occupied territory inside Ukraine to counter a surprisingly successful Ukrainian offensive inside Russian borders in a move that potentially weakens Moscow’s war effort. The development has drawn American attention and U.S. officials are now working to determine precisely how many troops Russia is moving, but sources said multiple brigade-sized elements made up of at least 1,000 troops each appeared to have shifted to the Kursk region, where Ukraine launched an operation last week. “It is apparent to us that Mr. (Vladimir) Putin and the Russian military are diverting some resources, some units, toward the Kursk Oblast to ostensibly counter what the Ukrainians are doing,” National Security Council representative John Kirby said. The Russian troop movements away from Ukraine “doesn’t mean that Mr. Putin has given up military operations in the northeast part of Ukraine or even down toward the south, toward places like Zaporizhya,” Kirby said. “There’s still active fighting along that front.”

— LOCAL: S. FL —

“Sheriff uses image of Harris in mailer to Democratic Primary voters, funded partly by Republican DeSantis allies” via Anthony Man of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel — Sheriff Gregory Tony’s political action committee moved swiftly to take advantage of Harris’ surging popularity to tout his bona fides to voters in the Aug. 20 Democratic Primary. A mailer from Tony’s PAC features a picture of him with Harris, paired with a quote from former President Barack Obama. It’s notable for the speed. The mailer from the Broward First PAC arrived in Democratic voters’ mailboxes in Broward County on Friday, just 20 days after Harris entered the presidential race when Biden ended his campaign for a second term. Harris has generated enormous excitement among Democratic voters — exactly the supporters he needs in the four-way Primary for Sheriff.

—“Gregory Tony faces three challengers in Democratic Primary. Will anyone overcome his big money?” via David Lyons of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel

“Jason Pizzo, Kevin Chambliss back J.C. Planas as ‘the leader we need’ for Miami-Dade Supervisor of Elections” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — Senate Democratic Leader-designate Pizzo and Homestead Democratic Rep. Kevin Chambliss are on Team Planas. The two lawmakers are endorsing Planas for Miami-Dade Supervisor of Elections, Planas’ campaign announced. Each gave a statement explaining their support. Pizzo, a fellow lawyer, called Planas “the most qualified and experienced leader for the job.” “As a former legislator, an elections attorney, and election law professor, J.C. has demonstrated incredible command of election law and an unwavering commitment to the democratic process,” he said. “I have no doubt J.C. will continue to ensure free, fair, and transparent elections in Miami-Dade.” Chambliss concurred. “Trust in our election system is the cornerstone of our democracy, and the way we keep that trust is by maintaining Miami-Dade’s high standards of election integrity and transparency,” he said

“Judge says Joe Carollo’s wages should not be garnished to satisfy $63M Ball & Chain verdict” via Tess Riski of the Miami Herald — A federal magistrate Judge has recommended that Carollo’s Miami City Commission wages not be garnished to satisfy a portion of a multimillion-dollar judgment, marking the second major win for Carollo this Summer as he seeks to protect his assets from seizure. Since January, the city has held 25% of Carollo’s paychecks in escrow after the court ordered his wages to be garnished in the wake of a $63.5 million judgment against him. Last year, a jury found that Little Havana business owners Bill Fuller and Martin Pinilla, who own the Ball & Chain nightclub, were victims of a political retaliation campaign pushed by Carollo.

“Fort Pierce Commission plans emergency meeting following arrest of City Manager Nick Mimms” via Wicker Perlis of Treasure Coast Newspapers — The City Commission has scheduled a special meeting for 3 p.m. today, one day after City Manager Mimms was arrested and charged with bid rigging and official misconduct. The meeting, which had yet to appear on the city website as of Thursday morning, was announced in a news release from city spokesperson Kaitlyn Ballard. “The city of Fort Pierce is aware of the recent arrest of City Manager Nick Mimms. We recognize the concern this may bring to our community and are committed to addressing the situation with the transparency and seriousness it requires,” Ballard wrote. “In response, the City Commission has scheduled a special public meeting for tomorrow.”

— LOCAL: C. FL —

“‘MAGA’ campaign mailer faces backlash with claims it misleads” via Dave Berman and Jim Waymer of Florida Today — A campaign mailer that some say incorrectly implies that the listed candidates all have the endorsements of Trump, DeSantis and the Brevard Republican Executive Committee has local Republican officials and some candidates steaming mad. “It’s fraudulent, and it’s deceptive, and it’s very sleazy, in my opinion,” Brevard Republican Executive Committee Chair Rick Lacey said. The mailer was sent by a political action committee with ties to the former head of the Republican Party of Florida, Gruters, who is a member of the Florida Senate. Lacey believes many thousands of the mailers were sent out to Republican voters in Brevard County in two batches and that many of those voters will be misled by it — and will use it as a guide to cast their vote-by-mail or in-person ballots for the Aug. 20 Primary.

—”Geraldine Thompson and Randolph Bracy battle for SD 15 in a heated race” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics

—”Orange County Commission contest between Austin Arthur, Nicole Wilson serves up plenty of intrigue” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics

“John Tobia put on leave from teaching job amid claims he used county staff to grade papers” via Eric Rogers of Florida Today — Brevard County Commissioner Tobia has been placed on paid administrative leave amid allegations that he used county staff to help grade papers and perform other course-related work for his teaching job at Valencia College, a school official said. The claims came to light during a Florida Department of Law Enforcement investigation into misconduct allegations against Tobia raised by a former staffer. No charges have been filed in the case. Tobia told Florida Today that staff members did help with some ancillary tasks related to his courses, including assisting him with entering grades into the college’s online system, but never actually graded any coursework.

“Feds arrest Orlando man for anti-Israel bomb threats, attack on solar facility” via Silas Morgan of the Orlando Sentinel — Authorities have indicted a Jordanian citizen living in Orlando for vandalizing a solar energy facility and threatening to bomb businesses that support Israel, the Department of Justice disclosed in a high-profile announcement Thursday. Hashem Younis Hashem Hnaihen, 43, donned a mask and attacked multiple local businesses at night in June, including a McDonald’s in Maitland and Starbucks in Orlando and Winter Park, smashing in their front doors and windows and leaving behind threatening letters. He was arrested on July 11 and indicted by a federal grand jury last week on four counts of threatening to use explosives and one count of destruction of an energy facility, with a maximum possible sentence of 60 years.

“Horsey Florida own’s Council OKs controversial development in equestrian preserve” via Craig Pittman of Florida Phoenix — The best job I ever had was as an assistant horse wrangler at a Summer camp. I liked it for two reasons: One, I got paid to ride horses on wooded trails every day. And two, if anything went wrong, I wasn’t responsible because I was just the assistant. I mention this to explain that I do know one end of a horse from the other. So, trust me when I tell you that the Council members of the town of Wellington are behaving like the north end of a southbound stallion. And they’re definitely responsible for it. Wellington is a town in Palm Beach County that’s all about horsing around. It’s one of two horse-centric towns in Florida. Ocala, in Central Florida, produces lots of racehorses. Wellington, in South Florida, is all about polo, dressage, and show jumping.

“Disney World’s Epcot had a busy year while Universal Orlando attendance slowed, report says” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics — Epcot’s attendance soared up like a roller coaster — a nearly 20% jump in 2023 vs. 2022 — according to a new industry report estimating the theme park crowds around the world. It’s good news for Disney. Disney World’s Magic Kingdom also retained the title of the world’s No. 1 theme park with an estimated 17.7 million visitors in 2023. That’s up 3% from 2022, according to the annual TEA/AECOM Theme Index and Museum Index. The report — one of the rare glimpses into theme park attendance, numbers the companies hold tightly to the chest — bodes well for Epcot, home to multiple festivals and a Guardians of the Galaxy roller coaster that opened in May 2022.

— LOCAL: TB —

“Scott Hebert, Jason Koon face off for Citrus County Superintendent of Schools” via Mike Wright of Florida Politics — When Sandra “Sam” Himmel pondered whether to leave public office after 20 years as Citrus County Superintendent of Schools, she wondered who might follow her. Five years earlier, Hebert — a 1999 Florida Teacher of the Year, past principal at Homosassa Elementary School and district administrator on the rise — told Himmel he wanted her position one day. And so, with that in mind, Himmel announced her retirement in February and fully backed Hebert to replace her. Enter Koon, Lecanto High School principal. While Hebert is Himmel’s hand-picked successor, and Koon declined opportunities to move up in administration to stay at the school level, each says he has the experience and know-how to get the job done. They’ve both been neck-and-neck in fundraising. Koon collected $65,000 to Hebert’s $80,000, though $10,000 of that is Hebert’s own money added to the campaign in the last two weeks.

“Tampa police deputy chief and union leader clash over email to women officers” via Justin Garcia of the Tampa Bay Times — An email from a Tampa deputy police chief that aimed to show support for the department’s female officers has gotten blowback from the head of the union, who complained that the message was “unnecessarily divisive.” On Thursday, Deputy Chief Ruth Cate sent a mass email to female officers in the Tampa Police Department, citing a “challenging month” for women in law enforcement. Cate pointed to attacks by some right-wing media personalities and politicians that blamed women in the Secret Service for not doing their jobs well enough amid the assassination attempt of Trump last month.

“Tampa man sentenced for threatening prosecutor, jury during trial” via Sara Filips of WFLA — A Tampa man was sentenced to six years and five months in federal prison after he threatened a federal prosecutor and a jury in the middle of his trial. Dempsey Emmanuel Gilmore, 33, was found guilty during a federal jury trial on March 9 for threatening to kill an assistant United States attorney. The U.S. Department of Justice said after the jury was polled, Gilmore got up from the table, approached the jury, and began threatening them. After the jurors left the courtroom, Gilmore lunged at the Assistant United States Attorney and threatened to kill her. He was restrained by several court security personnel and federal agents.

“Halted Pasco scallop season could be extended if toxin levels return to normal” via Max Chesnes of the Tampa Bay Times — Florida wildlife officials said this week they will consider extending the scallop harvesting season in Pasco County, which is currently on pause after tests in late July found unsafe toxins, if water quality improves. The scalloping season was slated to run until this Sunday in state waters south of the Hernando County line until it was halted July 24 over human health concerns.

— LOCAL: N. FL —

“Ad claims Florida Senate candidate interfered with an investigation while sheriff in St. Johns” via Greg Fox of WESH — One gunshot. Then, a second. A young mother lay dead. Her boyfriend, David Shoar’s deputy.” That’s how a new ad attacking state Senate candidate Shoar begins. It’s the latest in the back-and-forth between Shoar and state Rep. Tom Leek. They’re in a race with Gerry James to win the Republican nomination in the District 7 seat, which covers north Volusia County, Flagler, Putnam and St. Johns counties. Shoar was the sheriff in St. Johns from 2005 to 2021, and the death of Michelle O’Connell on Sept. 2, 2010, was one of the darkest hours on his watch.

“Court fight colors St. Johns County election” via Noah Hertz of Jax Today — While St. Johns County voters cast their ballots in this month’s Primary, two people battling it out in the courts have connections to key races. James Higbee and Nicole Crosby aren’t on the ballot, but their court fight is tied to the contests for the St. Johns County Commission. Higbee, whose grandfather is running a largely inactive campaign for County Commission, is suing Crosby. She runs the advertising operations for County Commission hopefuls Ann-Marie Evans and Ann Taylor. On paper, the case is unrelated to the election, but Crosby’s lawyer is accusing Higbee of playing politics. Higbee’s defamation suit revolves around a 2013 misdemeanor conviction in which he pleaded guilty to stealing $252 worth of merchandise from a Walmart in Delray Beach.

“CFO Jimmy Patronis calls for investigation of ‘concerning’ spending by former UF President Ben Sasse” via Jim Rosica of the Tallahassee Democrat — Patronis Thursday called on the state university system to investigate spending by outgoing Sasse, saying his department would “offer auditing support.” “Reports of @UF’s exorbitant spending by Ben Sasse’s office are concerning,” Patronis wrote in a social media post on X. The Independent Florida Alligator reported earlier this week that Sasse, a Republican former U.S. Senator from Nebraska who spent only 17 months heading UF, had “more than tripled his office’s spending, directing millions in university funds into secretive consulting contracts and high-paying positions for his GOP allies.” “As my agency can investigate fraud, waste and abuse, @FLDFS will reach out to @FLBOG to offer auditing support,” Patronis wrote.

“DeSantis says state will look into Sasse’s millions in expenses” via Ana Ceballos of the Miami Herald — DeSantis and top Florida Republicans are putting pressure on the state university system’s Board of Governors to look further into the spending habits of Sasse after a student-run newspaper reported that he’d spent millions in university funds on secretive consulting contracts and jobs for GOP allies. “We take the stewardship of state funds very seriously and have already been in discussions with leadership at the university and with the Board of Governors to look into the matter,” DeSantis’ spokesperson Bryan Griffin said. The Governor’s office made its position public shortly after CFO Patronis called on university officials to investigate Sasse’s “exorbitant spending.”

—“Duval County School Board District 1: Nadine Ebri, Tony Ricardo debate education challenges” via Nandhini Srinivasan of the Tributary

— LOCAL: SW FL —

“New College of Florida tosses hundreds of library books, empties gender diversity library” via Steven Walker of the Sarasota Herald-Tribune — A dumpster in the parking lot of Jane Bancroft Cook Library on the campus of New College overflowed with books and collections from the now-defunct Gender and Diversity Center on Tuesday afternoon. Video captured in the afternoon showed a vehicle driving away with the books before students were notified. In the past, students were given an opportunity to purchase books that were leaving the college’s library collection. Several books from the GDC were retrieved by local activists before they could be taken for disposal. After the Herald-Tribune reported on the book disposal, New College spokesperson Nathan March sent a statement asserting that the account was false. He said the college undertaking a routine maintenance of its campus library and removing materials from the GDC because the gender studies program no longer exists.

“Republican rivals George Kruse, Kevin Van Ostenbridge clash for Manatee District 7 Commission seat” via Ryan Ballogg of the Bradenton Herald — Commissioners Van Ostenbridge and Kruse will vie to represent Manatee County Republicans in the race for an at-large Commission seat in the Aug. 20 Primary. Both Commissioners were elected to their first terms in 2020 in a conservative wave of votes that shifted Manatee County’s top governing body further to the political right. Together they voted to oust former County Administrator Cheri Coryea in what marked the beginning of a major shake-up in county administration and staff. While Van Ostenbridge and Kruse started as seeming political allies, they’ve since become rivals who frequently clash on the dais. Kruse holds the District 7 seat, one of two at-large Commission seats that represent the entire county.

“Three candidates for North Port District 2 Commission seat make their case at forum” via Earle Kimel of the Sarasota Herald-Tribune — Three hopefuls for the North Port City Commission District 2 seat quickly moved to define themselves at a forum hosted by Team North Port CAN at the Shannon Staub Public Library. Former City Commissioner Cheryl Cook represented herself as a throwback to the days when North Port was more of a bedroom community and not one of the fastest-growing cities in the country, knocking on reaching a population of 100,000 people. Incumbent Barbara Langdon said that while her perspective has grown in four years, her main interests were still to bring high-paying jobs to the city and broaden the commercial tax base to ease the property tax burden on residential property owners.

“Residents uninformed of Lake Manatee dam risk before storm” via Michael Barfield of the Florida Trident — As Tropical Storm Debby moved across Cuba Friday, Aug. 2, the National Hurricane Center warned of heavy rain and flooding along Florida’s west coast. “The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline,” the 11 a.m. advisory read. Up to 12 inches of rain was forecast. Manatee County officials have known for years that an aging and problem-plagued dam at Lake Manatee posed a threat to public safety, but reduced outflow 48 hours before Debby instead of increasing it ahead of forecast rainfall, according to records obtained by the Florida Trident.

— TOP OPINION —

“Is it morning in Harris’ America?” via Paul Krugman of The New York Times — Like everyone who follows this stuff, I’m a bit awe-struck by the polling shift since Harris replaced Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket. We still don’t know what will happen on Election Day; Harris could easily lose, despite her improved poll numbers.

But if she wins, one way to think about what happened will be to say that Republicans were trying to replay the wrong election.

You see, GOP messaging has been quite explicitly modeled on Ronald Reagan’s 1980 campaign when he asked, “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” Applying this approach in 2024 has always been problematic, depending as it does on voters forgetting what 2020, with its soaring unemployment and mass deaths, was really like.

Now, I’m not saying that Harris, who appears to be leading but not by much, will win. A Reaganesque landslide is almost certainly impossible for either candidate, given our current political polarization.

Still, there is a real sense that this election suddenly looks more like 1984 than 1980, with Harris, not Trump, playing the Reagan role.

Meanwhile, Harris is running as the candidate of optimism and hope, declaring that we have triumphed over adversity — which we have. The truth is that there was ample reason to feel good about America a month or two ago, but voters weren’t willing to believe it as long as Biden was running. With Harris as the Democrats’ standard-bearer, Biden’s achievements may finally pay off politically.

— OPINIONS —

“The intensification of Vance” via Katherine Miller of The New York Times — Since Vance got more political and decided to run for office, making sense of exactly the kind of politician he is and will be has been a challenge. There are different modes of Vance as a public figure. He has been the populist intellectual who works with Elizabeth Warren and also the tech podcast right-winger who talks about America as being in the “late republican period.” He can be the lawyerly professional on a Sunday show or the guy, when asked what makes him happy, who talks about anger. Onstage as Trump’s vice-presidential nominee, he’s a blunt instrument, the attack dog going hard about illegal immigration and hammering Harris. Visible in a lot of arguments from self-described national conservatives, the loose movement influential with the next wave of Republican politicians and academics, is a picture of America as fractured, declining and overcomplicated — that everything is so messed up in such a dense, decades-piled-up way that only a kind of big bang could fix it.

“Trump’s no Nixon. He doesn’t deserve a pardon.” via Ruth Marcus of The Washington Post — In pardoning Nixon, Gerald Ford invoked the continued suffering of Nixon and his family, along with Nixon’s years of public service, but said his decision was driven by the need for national healing. In retrospect, that decision looks wise and selfless. But it’s not the right template for thinking about Trump. Harris should allow special counsel Jack Smith to proceed with his prosecutions against the former President, or what’s left of them after the Supreme Court’s ruling on Presidential immunity. If Trump is convicted and the conviction is upheld, Harris should not use her power to pardon Trump or commute his sentence. When it comes to Trump, accountability is a can endlessly kicked down the road. That’s not in the interest of justice — and it sets a bad precedent for future Presidents. We can hope that it doesn’t take the threat of criminal consequences to dissuade Presidents from wrongdoing, but rules and laws without consequences are meaningless. And the charges against Trump — that he plotted to overturn election results and obstructed justice to improperly retain classified documents — involve serious misconduct that calls out for enforcement. Second, Trump is no Nixon, and I don’t mean this in a good way.

“In Palm Beach, a conspiracy theorist wants to run elections” via the South Florida Sun-Sentinel — Palm Beach County Supervisor of Elections Wendy Sartory Link has a challenger who filed a federal lawsuit arguing how ballots should be counted. Republican Jeffrey Buongiorno subscribes to the fantasy that millions of immigrants are surging into the country illegally to vote Harris into the Oval Office. “Avoid a civil war by filing a civil complaint against the treasonous traitors who are conspiring to offset your vote,” he urged in a message on X. There was a time when such conspiracy-wielding candidates were laughed off as unelectable. No more. After all, millions of Floridians will cast ballots for the biggest election conspiracy theorist of them all in November. In 2020, there was just one election conspiracy. Now there are dozens, and across the state, election conspiracy theorists like Buongiorno are on the ballot or jostling to influence whose vote counts.

“Wanted, quick: Lots of voters in Broward, Palm Beach” via the South Florida Sun-Sentinel — Broward County, Palm Beach and all of Florida will hold a Primary next Tuesday, Aug. 20. True to form, most voters will resolutely avoid it, even though several major public offices are at stake and this election sets up the final choices that voters will make in the decisive General Election on Nov. 5. In a year when democracy itself is endangered, it’s not easy to detect a civic pulse locally. But everywhere, we hear that people’s eyes are on the big prize, the presidential race. Let’s hope so. Every election is important. Despite repeated reminders, most voters have still not bothered to request a mail ballot — and most of those who did have not yet returned them.

— INSTAGRAM OF THE DAY —

— WEEKEND TV —

ABC Action News Full Circle with Paul LaGrone on Channel 10 WFTS: ABC Action News political analyst Dr. Susan MacManus, legal analyst Janae Thomas, and investigative reporter Katie LaGrone.

Facing South Florida with Jim DeFede on CBS 4 in Miami: The Sunday show provides viewers with an in-depth look at politics in South Florida and other issues affecting the region.

In Focus with Allison Walker on Bay News 9/CF 13: A discussion of the upcoming Disaster Preparedness Sales Tax Holiday, what items are covered and not covered, and reminders on what’s needed before, during, and after a tropical system’s impact. Joining Walker are Clearwater Mayor Bruce Rector and Tabitha Parker, Owner of West Melbourne & Palm Bay Ace Hardware Stores.

Political Connections on Bay News 9 in Tampa/St. Pete and Political Connections on CF 13 in Orlando: The weekly Sunday show is launching as a joint weeknight show airing Monday through Friday at 7 p.m.

The Usual Suspects on WCTV-Tallahassee/Thomasville (CBS) and WJHG-Panama City (NBC): Gary Yordon and Leon County Commissioner Bill Proctor.

This Week in Jacksonville with Kent Justice on Channel 4 WJXT: former U.S. Rep. Jason Altmire and Duval County Supervisor of Elections Jerry Holland.

— ALOE —

“Matthew Perry’s assistant and doctors charged with getting him ketamine” via Matt Stevens of The New York Times — In documents filed in federal court in California, prosecutors said that Perry’s assistant and an acquaintance had worked with two doctors and a drug dealer to procure tens of thousands of dollars’ worth of ketamine for Perry, who had long struggled with substance abuse and addiction. The actor, who gained sitcom superstardom as Chandler Bing on “Friends,” was discovered floating face down in a hot tub at his home in Los Angeles on Oct. 28. The Los Angeles County medical examiner’s office said in an autopsy report that Perry, 54, had died of “acute effects of ketamine.” An indictment filed in federal court on Wednesday detailed grand jury charges against Jasveen Sangha, who prosecutors said was known as “the Ketamine Queen,” and Dr. Salvador Plasencia, known as “Dr. P.”

Epilogue — “Jordan Chiles says ‘unjust’ stripping of Olympic bronze has led to racist abuse” via Tom Lutz of The Guardian — Chiles says she has been left “heartbroken” by the decision to strip her of her Olympic bronze medal and says she has been exposed to racially motivated abuse on social media. The U.S. gymnast was initially given bronze in the floor exercise at the Paris Olympics after an appeal over how the judges scored her routine was accepted and she moved from fifth to third place. However, the Romanian Olympic Committee said the appeal had been filed four seconds after the one-minute time limit. “I have no words. This decision feels unjust and comes as a significant blow not just to me but to everyone who has championed my journey,” Chiles wrote. “To add to the heartbreak, the unprompted racially driven attacks on social media are wrong and extremely hurtful.”

— HAPPY BIRTHDAY —

Celebrating today are Matt Choy, Robert “Hawk” Hawken, journalist Michael Grunwald, our friend Ben Kirby, and C.J. Johnson. Today would have been Rockie Pennington’s birthday. May he continue to rest in peace.

___

Sunburn is authored and assembled by Peter Schorsch, Phil Ammann, Daniel Dean, Ryan Nicol, Jacob Ogles, and Drew Wilson.