Winner and Loser of the Week in Florida politics — Week of 9.15.24

The hot seat just cooled off a bit at two major Florida football programs.

Florida State University (FSU) and the University of Florida (UF) limped into this weekend a combined 1-5 after starting the season with optimism.

The Seminoles began the season ranked No. 10 in The Associated Press poll and went on to lose three straight games to unranked opponents. That’s the first time a Top 10 team has done so in college football history.

The Gators kicked off with a tough game against the University of Miami, which looks like a possible contender this year. But the Hurricanes didn’t just win, they embarrassed the Gators at home. And Florida followed that with another home loss to Texas A&M two weeks later after beating Samford.

This weekend, UF played its first road game at 1-2 Mississippi State amid calls to fire head coach Billy Napier. They pulled away in the fourth quarter for a 45-28 win behind some impressive quarterback play from both signal callers.

FSU was at home, but was up against 3-0 California, as head coach Mike Norvell tries to right the ship. The Seminoles squeaked by with a 14-9 win.

Before this weekend, things were so bad that oddsmakers at Sportsbetting.ag were already listing the odds for the potential replacement head coaches at FSU and UF.

Except, it’s worse than that, because FSU and the UF are the only two schools even listed with odds regarding a new head coach. Everyone and their mother seems to think that the end is near for Napier and Norvell.

The wins this weekend should quiet some of those calls. But barring a drastic turnaround for these teams this season, they’ll soon face the hot seat once again.

Now, it’s onto our weekly game of winners and losers.

Winners

Honorable mention: Amendment 3. Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy jumped into Florida electoral politics this week, releasing a video endorsing Amendment 3, which would legalize recreational pot for adults.

This isn’t the first time Portnoy has waded into politics when speaking to his massive audience. He of course interviewed Donald Trump in 2020 and later endorsed him this cycle.

But Portnoy largely stems from his sports coverage and his famed pizza reviews, giving him an extensive reach outside traditional political circles.

Portnoy, who owns a home in Miami, questioned why he’s not allowed to smoke while in the state.

“It’s about freedom. Half the states allow this, legal marijuana,” Portnoy said.

“Florida, I want to be able to watch football, eat pizza and smoke. We’re all adults here, 21-plus, make your own decisions. It’s on the ballot. Vote ‘yes’ on 3. Legalize recreational weed. Come on. Where are we, Florida? Wake up.”

And look, large following or not, a single internet personality endorsing a candidate or ballot measure isn’t a big deal on its face. But with Trump and Republican Sen. Joe Gruters already behind the measure, influencers like Portnoy voicing their support allows Amendment 3 backers to build on momentum ahead of Nov. 5 and show their is broad support for legalization.

Polling has shown support for Amendment 3 at or near the 60% required to pass. Nontraditional voices like this continuing to back the measure could put it over the top.

Almost (but not quite) the biggest winner: Allison Tant. Tant has been not just a strong fundraiser this cycle, but the strongest of any Florida House incumbent.

The Democrat in House District 9 has raised nearly $525,000 through Sept. 6 and is the only House incumbent to raise more than half a million dollars, according to our Jacob Ogles. That’s an especially impressive milestone given that Republicans hold a supermajority in the House.

Is Tant facing any real threat to lose against Republican candidate Spencer Brass in November? Well, it’s hard to say precisely. The 2022 cycle was the first with the new HD 9 lines, and Tant won unopposed after her Republican opponent withdrew. So we don’t have an exact baseline to reference.

Voting in 2022 statewide contests was very tight, though Republicans were boosted that year by a red wave in Florida. In 2020, Democratic President Joe Biden won the areas inside HD 9 with 54% support.

Regardless, Tant is making sure she has plenty of resources to fend off a potential upset, with about $486,000 still to spend between her campaign account and PC. And that’s key if Democrats want to cut into the GOP advantage in the House.

The biggest winner: Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. We wondered last week whether Trump’s poor performance in the debate and dalliances with divisive figures like Laura Loomer would strengthen Democrats’ resolve to put Florida in play, at least for the state’s Senate seat, if not the Presidential Election.

This week, we got even more indications that they will. Democrats on social media were eager to share remarks from Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff, husband to Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris, that the campaign sees Florida as a possible pickup opportunity. That’s in addition to the seven most discussed battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

“The map is wide open, and we need the money to compete in seven and possibly eight states. I was just in Florida at the Villages, and it was wild,” Emhoff said, per reporter Will McDuffie. “There was a lot of excitement, and we’re going to see what we can do down in Florida.”

And as we mentioned last week, Democrats face a difficult Senate map and have a narrow majority to begin with. If tight races for Democratic incumbents in Montana and Ohio don’t go their way, they’ll need to pick up wins elsewhere.

Analysts this week have been floating Florida as Democrats’ best hope (with Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz’s seat in Texas a possible runner-up). Senate Democrats also began another round of significant investment into battleground races, with Florida one of the states targeted.

And late in the week, Mucarsel-Powell got another friendly poll putting her within the margin of error of Scott, with pollster Morning Consult labeling Scott “potentially vulnerable.”

Again, Republicans maintain an advantage of the state and we wouldn’t bet on statewide wins for Democrats with even odds. In addition, Scott has won close race after close race in his political career, so it seems dicey to bet against him specifically.

But Democrats are making a play here and evidence continues to come in that while the odds may not be 50-50 for Democrats, they have enough of a chance to flip this seat to make a serious push.

Losers

Dishonorable mention: Federal government. Families of the 98 people killed in the tragic 2021 Surfside condo collapse have been waiting years for answers about what caused the building to crumble.

And it appears they will need to wait even longer, as a federal government review of the causes is being delayed.

The Miami Herald reported on a recent update from the National Institute of Standards and Technology, where a team is reviewing the evidence in order to release a report.

“Unfortunately, we have faced technical and programmatic delays that have caused us to adjust our timeline,” said lead investigator Judith Mitrani-Reiser.

That new timeline puts the expected release for the draft report into 2026.

The Herald report goes on to detail reasons for those delays. But with the price tag already eclipsing $33 million and dozens of families still in the dark, the government needs to be acting with more urgency here.

Critics of government often point to delays and inefficiencies as to why the private sector is superior to government involvement. Well, fumbling issues like this is yet another data point making that case.

Yes, government delays are not new, whether it’s a construction project, formulation of a major legislative package or an appointment that gets dragged out for political reasons.

But this is a terror these families went through, and are still suffering through so long as they don’t have answers. The feds need to do better.

Almost (but not quite) the biggest loser: Nick Mimms. Mimms has now lost his pay and is being asked to resign as Fort Pierce City Manager as he deals with criminal charges.

The City Commission originally put him on paid leave last month when news of the chargers first broke. The plan at the time was for the city to conduct its own probe of charges stemming from a Florida Department of Law Enforcement investigation that Mimms rigged city bids. Depending on the outcome of that city probe, Commissioners could have established cause to fire Mimms.

But this week, Commissioners reversed that plan, voting 3-2 to nix any investigation and pull Mimms’ pay.

“I’m not looking to spend $80,000 to launch an investigation,” Commissioner Michael Broderick said, according to Treasure Coast Newspapers.

Now, they are looking to play hardball with Mimms, giving him a deadline of Nov. 4 to resign and receive a $64,000 severance package. Otherwise, he may be fired.

As we have said before, everyone is entitled to their day in court. But when faced with serious allegations like this, the right thing to do is step out of the public eye and resign. If he beats the charges, then he can work on his redemption arc. But as of now, it seems everything is crumbling down around Mimms.

The biggest loser: Florida Justice Association. The FJA admitted in a private message to members that they were behind a newly created political committee that aimed to stop Republican Rep. Tom Leek from ascending to the Senate, despite previously denying any connection.

And on top of it, they failed.

At issue is the PC The Truth Matters, which directed attack ads at Leek as he sought the GOP nomination in Senate District 7. As detailed by Florida Politics, the FJA previously said “our PAC didn’t contribute one lick to that effort” by The Truth Matters.

Their PAC didn’t, but several lawyers funneled money which ended up in The Truth Matters to support the ads.

“As an organization, we sent a necessary message to any legislator that would consider acting against the Civil Justice system,” wrote FJA President Todd Michaels in an email to members.

“Though Leek won, he is bloodied,” Michaels added. “He has been significantly weakened, and his self-dealing and anti-consumer record has been exposed.”

The thing is, Leek had the backing of Senate Republicans, and was a well-respected lawmaker heading into this race. Yes, the FJA and others were upset at Leek over legislation targeting trial lawyers. And perhaps it made sense to run someone against him to try and get a more friendly voice into the Senate.

But the intensity with which they went after Leek was notable. And now that they came up empty, they say Leek is damaged. But it’s more likely that the FJA’s future efforts in front of the Legislature — which again, is controlled by Republicans who largely backed Leek — are what suffered the real damage here.

Good luck in the 2025 Session, guys.