Jesse Scheckner
Donald Trump is heading into the presidential race’s home stretch with a 6-point lead over Kamala Harris in the Sunshine State, newly released polling figures show.
Part of that has to do with Florida Republicans’ voter registration lead of more than 1 million over Democrats. But pollsters found that it also has to do with there being more Democrats in the state who are planning to vote for Trump than Republicans here who intend to vote for Harris.
Jacksonville-based Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy interviewed 625 likely voters by phone Oct. 1-4 on behalf of NBC 6 and Telemundo 51. The firm randomly selected whom it called from a phone-matched Florida voter registry and assigned quotas to voter turnout by county.
Statewide, pollsters found Trump has 49% support among likely voters compared to 43% who are backing Harris. Eight percent remain undecided or say they will cast ballots for another candidate.
A larger share of Democrats (7%) say they plan to vote for Trump instead of their party’s candidate. Just 4% of Republicans say the same about Harris.
Among independents, 45% say they supported Harris, 41% side with Trump, 10% are undecided and 4% plan to vote for someone else.
Trump performs far better with men than Harris does with women. The former President leads with men by 18 points (55%-47%), while Harris leads with women by just 5 points (49%-44%).
Counter to the findings of a Marist Poll conducted at around the same time that found Trump leading among young voters and trailing with older ones, Mason-Dixon found Harris leads by 1 point with voters 18-49, while Trump leads by 4 points with voters 50-64 and by 10 points with 65-and-older voters.
Trump is also ahead by 19 points with White voters, while Harris holds a massive 66-point lead with Black voters. The margin is far closer with Hispanics, among whom 47% prefer Trump compared to 42% who like Harris better
Regionally, Mason-Dixon found that only Southeast Florida was siding with the Vice President (53%-36%). The next-closest area in the state was Central Florida, where 42% of respondents say they’ll be picking Harris compared to 48% who say the same about Trump.
The poll had a 4-percentage-point margin of error and 95% accuracy. Subgroups, such as gender or age, had higher margins of error.
Results from the most recent Mason-Dixon survey follow several others in the past month that indicated the ex-President is the odds-on favorite to win Florida on Nov. 5. They included the aforementioned poll by Marist, which placed Trump 4 points ahead of Harris; a New York Times poll showing Harris 14 points behind; a Victory Insights survey in which Trump held a 2-point lead; and an Independent Center poll where Trump led Harris by just 1 point.
Another by Morning Consult found the candidates were in a statistical tie.
