Last Call for 10.23.24 – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics

Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.

First Shot

New polling from Emerson College shows Donald Trump up by a touchdown in Florida, with U.S. Sen. Rick Scott locked in a much tighter contest.

The poll, conducted Oct. 18-20, found Trump leading Democratic nominee Kamala Harris 52%-44%, with 3% undecided and 1% voting for someone else. The margin at the top of the ticket isn’t a shocker — few believe Florida’s 30 electoral votes are “in play” this year, but one of its U.S. Senate seats may be.

While Florida voters are lining up behind Trump, a chunk of those backers seemingly aren’t sold on sending Scott back to D.C. The former Governor and first-term Senator leads Democratic former U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by four points, 48%-44%, with 8% undecided.

Of note, Scott’s lead is outside the poll’s 3.3-percentage-point margin of error, but only by a hair. Another tidbit of good news for the incumbent: his lead expands to 6% when fence-sitters are forced to pick a side.

Emerson’s poll also shows that one of the most-watched amendments on the ballot is in decent but far from comfortable shape two weeks out from Election Day.

Amendment 3, the recreational pot measure, sits at 60%, the magic number that made the state constitution. Meanwhile, about one in three voters plan to vote against the amendment, while around 6% are undecided. Emerson didn’t query voters on Amendment 4, which would expand access to abortion.

Evening Reads

—”The 19 must-see lines from Kamala Harris’ NBC interview” via Chris Cillizza of So What

—”The Democratic Party’s long shot plans to deal with a Republican Supreme Court, explained” via Ian Millhiser of Vox

—”Why Harris could beat her polls” via Nate Silver of the Silver Bulletin

—“Donald Trump: ‘I need the kind of generals that Hitler had’” via Jeffrey Goldberg of The Atlantic

—“The political journey of a top Latino strategist for Trump” via Geraldo Cadava of The New Yorker

—”Her billionaire marriage broke up. Her VP campaign fizzled. Now she’s a Trump-world star.” via Elizabeth Dwoskin, Ashley Parker, Meryl Kornfield and Aaron Schaffer of The Washington Post

—”The secretive billionaire network funding ‘Stop the Steal’ 2.0” via Rebecca Ballhaus and Mariah Timms of The Wall Street Journal

—”In a tight presidential race, Omaha is basking in its political relevance” via Dionne Searcey of The New York Times

—”These Democratic voters hiding in plain sight could be Harris’ ticket to a North Carolina win” via Michael Kruse of POLITICO

—”Anonymous donor backing fight to remove Florida abortion amendment from ballot” via Romy Ellenbogen and Ana Ceballos of the Miami Herald/Tampa Bay Times

—”Amendment 4 tops Ballotpedia’s most-watched ballot measures for 2024” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics

Quote of the Day

“He has exhausted all possible resources to stop the amendment, but the opposition has been brutally defiant. It reminds me of the story of David and Goliath. Governor, you are the David of the story.”

— Dr. Ana Verdeja-Perez, seemingly unaware that the ancient king of Israel and Judah had no health department to weaponize.

Put it on the Tab

Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.

DeSantis claims legalizing marijuana means police won’t stop weed smokers lighting up at restaurants. We’ll meet that with a White Lie, but only as a courtesy.

The state seeks public input on the upcoming Museum of the History of Communism. Our suggestion: A full-service bar with a Commie Bastard on the cocktail menu.

Raise a Red Brick to Legoland Florida for granting free admission to first responders, veterans and service members. As an aside, there’s apparently a grey market for custom-made Lego bar equipment.

Breakthrough Insights

Tune In

Heat, Magic tip off NBA season

The two Florida NBA teams meet in Miami tonight.

The Miami Heat host the Orlando Magic to tip off the season for both teams (7:30 p.m. ET, FanDuel Sports Network Florida and FanDuel Sports Network-Sun).

The evening also includes the unveiling of Pat Riley Court at Kaseya Center, honoring team president Riley as he begins his 30th season with the organization. Riley, who coached the Heat from 1995-2003 and again from 2005-2008, joins Red Auerbach as the only former coach to be honored with an NBA court named after him.

Last season, the Heat finished 46-36 in the regular season before losing to the Boston Celtics four games to one in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs. The Heat took three of four games from the Magic last season.

The Heat largely stuck with their roster. In the offseason, they resigned forward Kevin Love to a new deal and signed guard Alec Burks. They also drafted Kel’el Ware from Indiana.

Orlando finished last season with an identical record, 46-36, and also lost in the first round of the playoffs, falling in seven games against the Cleveland Cavaliers.

The Magic were slightly more aggressive this offseason, re-signing Franz Wagner to a five-year extension and extending Jonathan Isaac’s contract. They also signed veteran guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who spent the last two seasons with the Denver Nuggets. Orlando used a first-round pick on Colorado forward Tristan da Silva. 

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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.