Staff Reports
Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
With a dozen days left in election season, Florida Republicans are winning the early vote battle.
As of Thursday afternoon, 620,050 Republicans had cast a ballot in person, compared to 313,684 Democrats and 212,419 third- and no-party voters. That equates to a 54% share of the 1.46 million early in-person votes for the GOP.
Democrats do have an edge in mail ballots, but it’s not a rout.
To date, 709,808 Democrats have sent in their mail ballots compared to 606,329 Republicans. It seems mail ballots are the preference for third- and no-party voter, too, with 355,909 of their ballots completing the round trip.
Overall, 1.67 million mail-in ballots have completed the round trip, and Democrats account for just over 42%. Their ceiling is higher than Republicans’ in that route — County Supervisors are awaiting the return of an additional 714,606 sent to Democrats. There are 571,077 unreturned mail ballots in the hands of GOP voters.
Of course, not all those ballots will return to whence they came. In the 2020 cycle, close to 500,000 mail ballots sent to Democrats weren’t returned. About 360,000 Republicans likewise forgot to put the flag up on their mailbox.
Still, Democrats led the overall mail-in vote by more than 680,000 — a feat they are unlikely to repeat based on the current proximity to Election Day and the number of ballots requested thus far.
By extension, winning the pre-Election Day vote is likely out of reach. Four years ago, about 3.6 million Democrats voted before the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November, outpacing Republicans by about 125,000 votes.
That edge was easily overcome on Election Day. Four years ago, Donald Trump beat President Joe Biden here by 3.2%. And that was when Democrats led in overall voter registrations. Today, the GOP leads by more than a million voters.
Evening Reads
—”Where millions of Americans have cast ballots during early voting” via Alyssa Fowers and Hannah Recht of The Washington Post
—”The swing states are in good hands” via Paul Rosenzweig of The Atlantic
—“How ‘Donald Trump is a fascist’ became Kamala Harris’ closing argument” via Christian Paz of Vox
—”Harris has relinquished one of the strongest arguments against Trump” via Henry Grarbar of SLATE
—”Short on time, Harris’ labor allies sprint to reach working-class voters” via Jonathan Weisman of The New York Times
—”Inside Trump World’s prep for a second term” via Andrew Restuccia, Vivian Salama and Rebecca Ballhaus of The Wall Street Journal
—”The ‘So What’ Senate rankings: It’s looking good for Republicans.” via Chris Cillizza of So What
—”’Operation Counter-Mold’: The hidden battle in military homes” via René Kladzyk of Rolling Stone
—”Red lights, green cash: How a Florida legislator boosted school bus cameras and benefited her family” via Nandhini Srinivasan of The Tributary
—”A last-minute, highly opinionated voting guide for your own survival. And it rhymes.” via Barry Golson for the Tampa Bay Times
Quote of the Day
“While Leader McConnell and I have fundamental disagreements, I am shocked that he would attack a fellow Republican Senator and the Republican nominee for President just two weeks out from an election.”
— U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, on criticisms in Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s upcoming biography.
Put it on the Tab
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
Florida Democrats have a little time to catch up, but with Republicans leading 2-to-1 in the early vote, it’s probably safe to order RPOF Chair Evan Power a Red Wave.
U.S. Sen. Rick Scott and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell aren’t exactly the best of friends, so the Florida Republican gets a Soft Shock for his reaction to the Scott jabs in McConnell’s upcoming biography.
If Attorney General Ashley Moody’s lawsuit doesn’t pan, her office will investigate the local bar scene for a round of Silent Assassin Spritzers.
Breakthrough Insights
Tune In
A huge test for the Knights
UCF hosts #11 BYU on Saturday in a game that could affect the College Football Playoffs (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN).
UCF (3-4) won’t make the playoffs, but they can impact who plays for the Big 12’s automatic spot in the postseason. The Big 12 has two remaining undefeated teams: BYU and Iowa State, who beat UCF 38-35 last week.
Because BYU and Iowa State are not scheduled to play in the regular season, they could meet as undefeated teams in the Big 12 championship game. The winner of the game earns an automatic berth in the College Football Playoffs.
However, should UCF upset the Cougars, one-loss Kansas State would see its chance of earning a spot in the conference title game improve. Two loss teams, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, Colorado, and Arizona State, will also cheer for the Knights.
This is the first season for the Big 12 to play with 16 teams, and with the 12-team national playoff implemented this season, more teams than ever are harboring hopes of earning a championship on the field.
If the Knights are to pull the upset on Saturday, they’ll likely need a big game from running back RJ Harvey. The senior rushed for more than 100 yards in his first three games, notching his fourth 100-plus yard performance last week with a season-high 196 yards against the Cyclones. Harvey ranks fifth nationally with 890 rushing yards.
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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.
