A.G. Gancarski
Is Florida’s Senate race really too close to call?
That’s been the question raised by at least some polling of the race between U.S. Sen. Rick Scott and his challenger, former U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.
Outlier surveys have shown as narrow as a 1-point lead for Scott, though none have shown his challenger tied or ahead. The average lead for the incumbent in polls stands at 5 points at this writing. However, Republican strategist Ryan Tyson, emboldened by early turnout models, said Scott could win by double digits.
Similarly to Val Demings’ challenge to Marco Rubio in 2022, the Democrat here has gotten some national earned media spotlight. Mucarsel-Powell has used it to trenchantly criticize Scott, saying (among other things) that if he were to become GOP Senate Leader, it would make people nostalgic for outgoing Leader Mitch McConnell.
And speaking of McConnell, against whom Scott mounted a failed leadership challenge in 2022, the Kentucky Republican ripped the former National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair for a “victim” mentality, saying Scott misread the 2022 map and overestimated GOP gains, predicting a majority that didn’t come to pass. For his part, Scott has said he’s “shocked” by the criticisms.
While McConnell won’t be campaigning with Scott down the stretch, other colleagues of the Naples Republican have, including U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin and U.S. Sen. John Barrasso of Wyoming. Mucarsel-Powell has gotten some support as well, including from Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia and former Republican U.S. Rep. Chris Shays.
Key to the Democratic strategy is making inroads in unlikely places, such as The Villages, a historically reliable Republican redoubt where Democrats have been feistier this campaign than in recent years, with golf cart rallies making national news.
Mucarsel-Powell has attributed that energy to people understanding what is at stake, especially in the wake of this year’s hurricanes and “the families that have been devastated by two catastrophic storms after Rick Scott voted against FEMA funding.”
Mucarsel-Powell has gone on the attack in a way that U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, whom Scott defeated narrowly in 2018, didn’t ever seem to manage, including a lot of late campaign television ads.
One compared Scott to a snake, and the others (“Thief,” “Most Extreme,” “Sold Us Out” and “The Answer”) released just days ago made the case that the Senator wants to “take away women’s rights, take away Social Security and Medicare.”
“So the question is: Do you want a senator who protects freedom or one who wants to take it away?” Mucarsel-Powell asks.
The Democrat has been forced to go on the attack from a distance because Scott refused to debate her.
“As you know, we went through three bad storms,” Scott said, per the Florida Phoenix. “So we worked on that, and then we got back to the campaign every day.”
But looming over this race is the national campaign for President, one that saw the Kamala Harris campaign occasionally tease making a play for Florida’s 30 electoral votes, but ultimately only sending tertiary surrogates to Florida, such as Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff.
While Emhoff has said Florida can be won, the reality on the ground is that Florida has more than 1.1 million more active registered Republicans than Democrats. If Mucarsel-Powell falls short, the question will be asked: Could Harris and national Democrats have done more?
10 comments
Michael
October 29, 2024 at 12:21 pm
“Could Harris and national Democrats have done more?”
Likely not. As Ron White says, ‘You can’t fix stupid’ and stupid is what populates all the Florida red(neck) counties.
I Am Speaking.
October 29, 2024 at 12:35 pm
I will counter your stupid remark with the people of Delaware. Those idiots gave Joe Biden six terms as US Senator. 36 years of stupidity. We can talk about Hank Johnson. We can talk about Maxine Waters. Plenty of dummies out there.
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MH/Duuuval
October 29, 2024 at 1:41 pm
Peachy’s default position is to go black. And, if possible, female.
Cheesy Floridian
October 29, 2024 at 12:39 pm
Yes! I think that it’s a big shame that either party doesn’t try to make progress in a “red” state or a “blue” state. It feels like a lot of Americans who hold these views are not being represented well or no one is really even trying to represent them. I think more states could be swing states if candidates were to try harder in some of these “solid color” states. I think that Florida would be a lot closer and more in play if national Democrats would have helped more and sooner.
Florida is a redstate
October 29, 2024 at 1:23 pm
No chance look at the early vote. Trump wins by 9 to 10 points and scott by 7 to 9 points. The republicans are leading early voting by 600, 000
votes as of today and dems have a slight leadnin mail in ballots. The day off elections repubs always show up more so bad article and no chance. She lives in my district in south florida and will
get walloped there!!
MH/Duuuval
October 29, 2024 at 1:42 pm
So, Peachy, stay home if you are so confident. Your one vote won’t be missed.
Florida is a redstate
October 29, 2024 at 1:51 pm
Ill see what you post election night MH!! You have to be the most delusional poster on these boards but i wont post anymore till then. The facts are the facts this state is no longer in play for dems for a long time to come, but hey like my mom may she rest in peace used to say dreams are for free.
MH/Duuuval
October 29, 2024 at 2:43 pm
“i wont post anymore till then.”
Peachy wants folks to believe everything will be settled by the end of Election Day.
Dr. Juan Gray
October 29, 2024 at 3:49 pm
YES SHE CAN BEAT RICK SCOTT , IF THE DEMOCRATS GET OUT AND VOTE. WE NEED TO TURN FLA BLUE. IT TIME TO STOP ALL THE CULTURAL WARS , ALLOW DEMOCRACY TO REIN TRUE, WITHOUT THE NONSENSE BY THE GOVERNOR.