Winner and Loser of the Week in Florida politics — Week of 10.27.24

The big day is now just two days away, with Florida voters getting their final say on federal, state and local elections. Early voting has been going on for a week or two at this point, allowing voters to weigh in early on the biggest issues facing their respective communities.

Unless, of course, you live in Miami Beach.

The City Commission voted in July 2023 to put a referendum on the ballot to institute a 1% food and beverage tax to raise money to provide for homeless individuals and domestic violence survivors. The tax contains several exemptions, such as carving out hotels and only applying to businesses with gross annual receipts above $400,000.

Seemingly inexplicably, with less than a week to go until Election Day — and 16 months after originally approving the measure — the City Commission voted narrowly, 4-3, to nullify the proposal entirely.

Referendum 8 will still appear on ballots, however, because ballots were already printed and can’t be redone. Call us crazy, but that’s probably a sign you shouldn’t be messing with the ballot at this late stage of the game.

Ron Book, a lobbyist who chairs the Miami-Dade County Homeless Trust, which would have benefited from resources generated from the tax, is backing a lawsuit against the city for their abrupt about-face. An emergency injunction has been filed to reverse the City Commission’s recent action.

“I am a nice guy until I am not,” Book said.

Now, it’s onto our weekly game of winners and losers.

Winners

Honorable mention: Tampa. Anyone in Tampa a fan of cocktails? We know you all like to party. Well, buckle your seatbelts, because Tampa is getting a chance to host the “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” in 2027.

Jacksonville normally hosts the famous Florida-Georgia football game. But in 2026 and 2027, EverBank Stadium is being renovated and won’t be able to handle the game. That’s where Tampa steps in.

The teams will play at Raymond James Stadium in 2027. And fun fact: It won’t be the first time Tampa has hosted the game. The city welcomed the two teams all the way back in 1919, making it the only Florida city outside of Gainesville and Jacksonville to host the storied regular season matchup.

As for 2026, Atlanta will be the host city, allowing the teams to play one year in Georgia and the other in Florida.

Gator grads are spread out throughout the entire state, meaning there should be healthy turnout at the Tampa tussle in 2026. Hopefully by then, the Gators have a product on the field worth watching. Despite playing a tight game into the second half against Georgia on Saturday, the Gators let the game slip away and fell to a meager 4-4 on the season.

Almost (but not quite) the biggest winner: Incumbency. For years, analysts have noted the disjunction between approval ratings for Congress falling further and further while the re-election rate for incumbents remains through the roof.

Well, it looks like Florida is going to add to that disconnect.

Incumbents appear by and large to be on the path to re-election throughout the state on Tuesday. One exception is in Florida’s 13th Congressional District, where Democrat Whitney Fox is seeking to unseat Republican U.S. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna. But even there, Fox is still an underdog, and national Democrats’ decision to throw resources her way came late in the cycle.

South Florida just a few cycles ago saw Democrats flip two seats blue, only for Republicans to win them back the next cycle. But now, all six South Florida seats appear safe.

North Florida contains no real battleground races. And Republicans’ hope of unseating Democratic U.S. Rep. Darren Soto in Central Florida is a long shot.

Sure, there could be a massive upset that few see coming. That’s why we don’t count the votes before they’re all in. But the most likely outcome is that all or almost all Florida incumbents remain safe.

And that would help reveal the reasons why this disconnect persists: gerrymandering and money. At the urging of Gov. Ron DeSantis, Florida lawmakers redrew congressional maps to avoid as many toss-up districts as possible, meaning there aren’t many places for residents to voice their discontent with the nation’s legislative body, short of a widespread cross-party movement.

And even if they wanted to, that discontent can get drowned out by the dollars flowing to incumbents. There are exceptions, but many of these races see underfunded challengers going up against massive war chests. It’s an uphill climb to overcome the name ID advantage some of these lawmakers have.

Again, upsets can happen on Election Day. But if there is little drama following Tuesday, despite Americans’ discontent with Washington, you’ll know why.

The biggest winner: Florida GOP. And on that point, yes, perhaps Democrats overperform on Election Day this year and end up surprising in some top-of-the-ballot races.

But as of now, there likely isn’t a single member of The Process who would prefer the Democrats’ position heading into Election Day over the GOP’s.

Republicans have built a steady lead in early voting over the past two weeks. Democrats are leading in early mail-in voting, but Republicans have dominated in early in-person votes.

Sure, voter registration doesn’t explicitly tell you who a voter favored on the ballot. Maybe some Republicans are crossover votes against Donald Trump or in favor of Amendments 3 or 4. But likewise, maybe some Democrats upset with the economy’s slow recovery are crossing the aisle as well.

And it’s also possible some Republicans are returning to a habit of voting early after Trump undermined the practice in 2020. He has continued to do so in 2024, but has occasionally (and contradictorily) toed the larger Republican line of voting early. So perhaps these votes are eating into the GOP’s traditionally strong Election Day performance and Democrats will do better than expected on Tuesday.

But all of the above are “ifs.” And what we know right now is that Republican voters are turning out in higher numbers than Democratic counterparts in a state where those major ballot initiatives and several state- and local-level races are expected to be competitive. We’ll see how those contests turn out on Tuesday, but the GOP has to be feeling good.

Losers

Dishonorable mention: Rick Roth. A deep dive from Seth Freed Wessler of ProPublica this week showed Roth’s evolution from a farmer advocating against targeting undocumented migrant workers to a lawmaker approving legislation that did just that, all while Roth dodged the worst consequences of the bill himself.

The legislation (SB 1718), approved in 2023, mandates that employers of 25 or more workers must use the E-Verify system to check if their employees are in the country legally.

To be clear, we all know the U.S. immigration system is broken and needs a large fix that will likely make both parties unhappy. But something, to be sure, needs to be done, and utilizing E-Verify could absolutely be a part of that larger solution.

But alone, without other important pieces like addressing the inevitable reduction in available workers or any consideration to individuals who have followed the law and contributed to the U.S. economy for years or decades, this legislation is incomplete at best and a detriment at worst.

But not for Roth. And that’s why we’re mentioning him rather than targeting anyone who voted for that legislation.

Roth had for years made it a point to advocate against this type of bill, as the ProPublica report lays out, precisely because he knew the negative impact it could have on the farming community and elsewhere. But in the era of Trump, where Republicans are expected to carry only the toughest immigration positions possible, Roth rose in favor of the bill and helped move it across.

That’s because he had started making use of the H-2A visa program, which allows him to still utilize foreign workers via a legal process. But that option isn’t available for all of Roth’s farmer colleagues, as the piece details, allowing him to dodge the negative effects of the bill while some of his competitors deal with the consequences.

And this all comes as Roth, as detailed in a 2023 Florida Politics piece, tried downplaying the negative consequences of the legislation in comments to constituents while appearing to serve as an advocate for those impacted by the law. It must be easy to put on whatever face you need to when you’re able to avoid the harshest effects of legislation you signed off on.

Almost (but not quite) the biggest loser: Legislature. And speaking of ill-considered legislation, here’s the opening line from a Wall Street Journal report this week:

“Florida wanted to make it easier to invest in the state’s booming economy. For several weeks, the government accidentally made it illegal for most banks to sell investments there.”

Whoops!

Florida wanted to help companies raise money to grow Florida’s pro-business climate, so lawmakers approved a measure easing access to fundraising, but aimed to ensure entities providing capital were on the up-and-up. So the legislation included a provision banning lenders that have been sanctioned by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for sketchy dealings.

Except, of course, with the massive portfolio sizes of major banking institutions, they have all been hit by the SEC at one point or another. And the Florida legislation didn’t properly carve them out.

So when the law went into effect on Oct. 1, big banks were blocked. The Wall Street Journal reports that the banks reached out to the DeSantis administration to warn them of the issue. The administration then utilized powers granted under hurricane-related emergency declaration to suspend the portion of the law that was causing the issue.

In an era where Republicans are worried more about style over substance, it’s shocking but not surprising they screwed up here. Maybe try less needless culture war red meat and more actually reading the language of the bills you’re passing?

The biggest loser: TV stations. Yes, there are several political ads being broadcast to viewers throughout Florida this cycle. With major initiatives on marijuana and abortion, plus several competitive down-ballot races in pockets of the state, viewers are getting their fair share of politicians approving of this or that message.

But conspicuously absent this year are ads related to the 2024 Presidential Election.

The 2020 General Election saw $177 million in spending between the Joe Biden and Trump campaigns, according to analysis by AdImpact.

This year’s total? Just $1.4 million, a more than 99% drop.

If you needed more evidence that Florida is not seen as a presidential swing state, there you go.

Things are also looking grim, though not nearly as dire, when looking at the U.S. Senate race. The 2018 contest saw $24.9 million in ad spending at this point. This cycle, that number is $17.3 million. That’s a more than 30% drop, which while not 99%, is still not reassuring.

And yes, stations have been buoyed somewhat by spending on those previously mentioned initiatives.

There’s no guarantee Florida will see two high-powered amendment battles every cycle. Presidential and Senate races are givens every few cycles, but it appears the appetite to spend there is drying up. That could spell trouble in the years ahead for TV stations, which rely on big ad revenue this time of year.

It’s commonplace for Republicans to say media networks are in the tank for Democrats. But to be frank, they just might be hoping for Democrats to show Florida is truly a purple state. Otherwise, those stations may be missing out on a lot of green in the future.