Staff Reports
Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
A new poll from Associated Industries of Florida shows former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris.
The AIF’s Center for Political Strategy poll showed that Trump traps 52% support in a three-way race against Harris and third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Harris follows at 44% with Kennedy taking 3%. With Kennedy excluded, Trump holds a similar lead — 53%-46%.
The same poll also showed U.S. Sen. Rick Scott leading former U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell 52%-42% in the U.S. Senate race.
AIF also asked Floridians’ opinions on issues driving them to the polls, finding economic issues top of mind for about half of voters. Inflation held the No. 1 spot at 27%, followed by insurance costs at 22%. The third most important issue was immigration, at 10%. It was the only other issue to break double digits.
Republicans generally performed better than Democrats on most issues, including the economy (49%-26%), reducing inflation (43%-25%), education (41%-37%), protecting personal freedoms (47%-40%), and crime (50%-22%). The GOP also fared well in a generic ballot test, with Republicans hitting the 50% mark.
The new poll shows the momentum isn’t shifting in Florida the way it has elsewhere in the weeks since Harris replaced Biden on the Democratic ticket.
“President Trump won Florida by three points in 2020, and, with less than three months to go until Election Day, he appears to be in a very strong position to grow his margin and win Florida for the third time in 2024,” AIF Vice President of Political Operations Jeremy Sheftel said.
The AIF poll had a sample size of 800 likely voters in Florida. It was conducted Aug. 6-8.
Evening Reads
—”In Pennsylvania, Kamala Harris can’t shake her anti-fracking past” via Evan Halper of The Washington Post
—”Former aide: Donald Trump ‘feels this election slipping away’” via Sarah Fortinsky of The Hill
—“Trump and Harris agree on ‘no tax on tips.’ They’re both wrong.” via Abdallah Fayyad of Vox
—”The 58 wildest lines from the Elon Musk-Trump interview” via Chris Cillizza of So What
—”The Trump campaign’s ‘please shut up’ phase” via David Frum of The Atlantic
—“Tim Walz isn’t very rich. Americans disagree on whether that’s a good thing.” via Joe Pinsker and Veronica Dagher of The Wall Street Journal
—”Ron DeSantis says CD 15 voters should stick with Laurel Lee” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics
—”Visit Orlando bends rules in spending millions in public money: audit” via Stephen Hudak of the Orlando Sentinel
—”How hotels are colluding to jack up room rates, according to two lawsuits” via Judd Legum of Popular Information
Quote of the Day
“What Republicans aren’t telling you is that this voter registration total excludes 886,066 registered Democratic voters.”
— Philip Jerez, minimizing the Florida GOP’s voter advantage.
Put it on the Tab
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
Gov. Ron DeSantis earned an Independent by bucking Donald Trump and endorsing U.S. Rep. Laurel Lee and HD 94 candidate Anthony Aguirre.
While you’re at it, go ahead and order him his favorite — Guinness, last we checked — for outperforming the rest of his party with a plus-9 approval rating.
Meanwhile, if USA Today’s latest polling is to be believed, U.S. Sen. Rick Scott is taking a trip to the Sinking Ship.
Breakthrough Insights
Tune In
Marlins looking for hope
It doesn’t get any easier for the Miami Marlins.
Miami has the second-worst record in the National League, and tonight, they open a series against the team with the second-best record in the NL, the Philadelphia Phillies (6:40 p.m. ET, Bally Sports Florida).
The Marlins (44-75) haven’t won a series since taking two of three from the Brewers in late July. They have lost five of their last seven games and only the struggles of the Colorado Rockies have kept Miami out of the cellar in the National League standings.
Is there hope? Perhaps a little.
Jake Berger has been on a tear since the All-Star break. He became the second player in franchise history (joining Giancarlo Stanton) to hit 11 home runs in the first 22 games after the All-Star break. Stanton did it in his MVP season. In his last 30 games, Berger has hit 14 home runs and driven in 25. Do that over an entire season and a player would be an MVP favorite.
Also, in the more distant future, Marlins’ fans can look to second-round draft pick Carter Johnson who made his minor league debut earlier this month. The 18-year-old is playing for the Jupiter Hammerheads of the Florida State League (A-ball) and has collected at least one hit in five of his first seven professional games.
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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.
