Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics — 10.24.24

Good Thursday morning.

Breaking overnight — “Hurricane season isn’t over: A tropical cyclone could form in next two weeks, experts say” via Bill Kearney of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel — Brad Pugh, meteorologist at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s climate prediction center, said, “From what we’re seeing, I would be kind of surprised if we don’t have a tropical cyclone form over the next two to three weeks in the Caribbean.” He said NOAA’s calculations indicate a 40-60% chance of development in the next two weeks in the same area that spawned Hurricanes Helene and Milton. Some models show development as early as the end of October, others toward the first week in November. Some forces could hamper formation, as well. “If there (were) a dip in the jet stream, a trough of low pressure at mid-levels of the atmosphere, if that really deepened way down into the Gulf of Mexico, that would increase vertical wind shear and inhibit development,” said Pugh.

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According to new polls from the Florida Chamber of Commerce, Donald Trump and U.S. Sen. Rick Scott are positioned to cruise on Election Day.

The top-of-ticket Republicans have held a consistent lead in Florida, with more recent polls showing the former President pulling further ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris.

The trend continued in the Chamber poll by Cherry Communications, which found Trump up by six points, 51%-45%. Meanwhile, Scott leads Democratic former U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by five points, 51%-46%.

Both Scott and Trump tout majority support from Hispanic and no-party voters, and the former President is running up the score with men, who prefer him by 20 points.

More good news for Republicans: Though he’s not on the ballot, the Chamber also clocked Gov. Ron DeSantis’ approval rating at 57%. Likewise, Florida voters say the state is headed in the “right direction” by a 14-point margin, 53%-39%. Just 28% say the same about the nation.

“With more than 2 million Floridians having already cast their ballots and less than two weeks until Election Day, Florida voters remain bullish on Florida’s statewide leaders and the direction of our state,” said Florida Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Mark Wilson.

“The Florida Chamber’s political operations team is actively working to ensure the right candidates and causes prevail at the ballot box by uniting the business community behind their campaigns. Florida’s continued economic momentum depends on supporters of free enterprise making their voices heard on November 5th.”

The outlook isn’t as rosy for Amendment 3, the recreational pot amendment that the Chamber has staunchly opposed this cycle. The latest check-in puts it at 57% support, three points short of the threshold it must reach to pass. However, the shortfall is within the poll’s margin of error.

The Florida Chamber poll was conducted Oct. 10-20 via live telephone interviews of likely voters. Its margin of error is +/- 4%. The sample size included 222 Democrats, 267 Republicans, and 125 third- and no-party candidates.

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U.S. Rep. Aaron Bean may not thwomp his challenger this year, but he’s still the clear favorite in the race for Florida’s 4th Congressional District.

A new survey from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab shows the Fernandina Beach Republican with a 51%-44% lead over Democratic challenger LaShonda “LJ” Holloway. That’s a significantly tighter margin than two years ago when Florida Republicans mopped up at the polls.

“Bean won by a whopping 21 points in the 2022 Midterms, the first election in the newly re-drawn CD4 after Florida’s hotly contested redistricting. Turnout among Democrats in 2022 was atrocious, at less than 50% statewide,” said PORL faculty director and professor of political science Dr. Michael Binder.

“This time around, not only is it a Presidential Election, but there’s actually a competitive Senate race to drive up Democratic turnout. It’s still looking like another Bean victory in CD4, but maybe not by as wide a margin as we saw two years ago.”

Bean and Holloway have strong support from their party’s voters, but the incumbent trails by 2% among no-party voters.

Bean will likely benefit from Trump and Scott being above him on the ballot, though, with each leading by about 10 points within CD 4.

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Trunk-or-Treat comes to the House — Unless you have a trunk full of candy, your House Office Building parking pass will be worthless this afternoon. Starting at 3 p.m., Jefferson Street, including the entrance and exit of the House Office Building Garage, will be closed for the 4th Annual Capitol Police Trunk-or-Treat. That’s a hard 3 p.m., too — the authorities would prefer you to be gone by 2:30 p.m. Anyone exiting the Capitol Parking Garage (Lot 31) must turn left toward Duval Street to avoid the road closure. Anyone needing to enter the North Loading Zone must approach from Adams Street and turn toward Duval Street and the guard house. Displaced House staff (which sounds like a low-effort Halloween costume) will be able to park in the Lot D top level beginning at noon and lasting throughout the event, which wraps at 9 p.m.

— SITUATIONAL AWARENESS —

—@MappingFL: The first two days of early voting have been solidly Republican, allowing the GOP to take the lead in votes cast. Presumption is rest of week will be solidly red, and then Democrats are hoping weekend sees a major shift. So far, 80% of early votes have been “super voters” #flapol

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— DAYS UNTIL —

Second season of ‘Lioness’ premieres — 3; Florida TaxWatch’s 45th Annual Meeting – 6; 2024 Presidential Election – 12; second half of Yellowstone season five premieres – 13; USF stadium groundbreaking — 15; Taylor Sheridan’s ‘Landman’ premieres – 22; ‘Dune: Prophecy’ premieres on HBO — 24; News Service of Florida’s Above & Beyond Awards, honoring women in government and public service — 26; Legislature’s 2025 Organizational Session – 28; Las Vegas Grand Prix – 28; ‘Wicked’ premieres — 29; ‘Moana 2’ premieres – 34; ‘Chef’s Table’ returns to Netflix — 34; 2024 Florida Chamber Annual Insurance Summit begins – 40; Florida Chamber 2024 Florida Transportation, Growth & Infrastructure Solution Summit — 40; MLS Cup 2024 – 44; Army-Navy game — 51; ‘Mufasa: The Lion King’ premieres – 57; College Football Playoff begins – 59; ‘Squid Game’ season two premieres – 63; Fiesta, Peach, Rose & Sugar Bowls – 69; Orange Bowl – 77; ‘Severance’ season two debuts – 92; Super Bowl LIX — 108; ‘Captain America: Brave New World’ premieres – 120; the 2025 Oscars – 129; Florida’s 2025 Legislative Session begins – 131; Tampa Bay Rays season opener — 154; 2025 Session ends – 190; ‘Thunderbolts’ premieres – 190; Epic Universe grand opening — 210; ‘Karate Kid: Legends’ premieres — 218; ‘Fantastic Four – First Steps’ premieres – 274; ‘Blade’ reboot premieres – 384; ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ premieres – 421; ‘Avengers 5’ premieres – 558; Untitled ‘Star Wars’ movie premieres – 575; FIFA World Cup 26™ final – 596; FIFA World Cup 26™ final match – 634; ‘The Batman 2’ premieres – 713; Another untitled ‘Star Wars’ movie premieres – 786; ‘Avengers: Secret Wars’ premieres – 926; 2028 Los Angeles Olympics Opening Ceremony — 1,359; ‘Avatar 4’ premieres – 1,885; ‘Avatar 5’ premieres – 2,606.

— TOP STORY —

“‘Angel financier’ is funding legal effort to throw abortion off the Florida ballot” via Romy Ellenbogen and Ana Ceballos of the Herald/Times Tallahassee Bureau — The legal effort to force Florida’s abortion amendment off the ballot is being bankrolled by an unnamed donor.

The lawsuits, filed last week by a group of anti-abortion advocates, argue that a report from DeSantis’ administration alleging “widespread” fraud in the petition gathering process for Amendment 4 should, therefore, disqualify any votes for the effort.

Former Florida Supreme Court Justice Alan Lawson represents the four Florida women suing.

In the lawsuits, he argues that the sponsors behind Amendment 4 failed to secure the required number of signatures to make the ballot when the reported fraud is considered. Lawson told the Times/Herald that the lawsuit is being funded by an “angel financier.”

He declined to disclose the donor’s name or provide other information about them. Lawson said that the legal team must meet several conditions under Florida Bar ethical conduct rules when someone other than the client is paying the attorney’s fees. That includes ensuring that the donor does not “direct the attorney’s actions or influence the legal strategy in any way that is contrary to the client’s wishes or interests.”

“While the donor’s identity remains a mystery, the funds are helping fuel a high-stakes legal challenge that could toss out the amendment even if it passes with 60% voter approval next month. Across the state, hundreds of thousands of Floridians have already cast ballots with Amendment 4 on them.

In states with the citizen-led initiative process, removing a constitutional amendment is uncommon after it’s already on the ballot. “It’s a pretty extreme remedy,” said Jonathan Marshfield, a constitutional law professor at the University of Florida.

— 2024 — PRESIDENTIAL —

“Donald Trump’s plan for Election Day? Campaign readies for a party in Florida.” via Zac Anderson and David Jackson of USA Today — Trump is expected to have his Election Night party in Florida in the Palm Beach area. That likely means Trump will be at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, with a Republican operative close to the campaign saying they are “pretty sure that’s where everyone” will be on Nov. 5. The Election Night party could be at another venue, or spread across multiple venues, though, sources said. After two foiled assassination attempts, there is heightened security around Trump and wariness about disclosing details about his location and movements. Trump spent Super Tuesday in March at Mar-a-Lago to watch the GOP Primary results, and his campaign is based in West Palm Beach. Harris plans to spend Election Night in Washington, D.C., and is considering a speech at her alma mater, Howard University.

“FIU poll finds record levels of Cuban American support for Trump days before election” via Syra Ortiz Blanes of the Miami Herald — Most Cuban Americans in Miami-Dade County support Trump, according to a poll from Florida International University released only days ahead of the U.S. Presidential Election. The poll found that Trump is on track to capture 68% of Cuban American voters, underscoring the broad support the presidential candidate has maintained and gained in the traditionally conservative and influential South Florida demographic. Wednesday’s results also reaffirmed that Cubans remain loyal to the GOP, with 55% identifying as Republicans. “The alliance between the Republican Party and the Cuban American vote is very strong,” said Guillermo Grenier, a sociology professor at Florida International University.

“Trump supporters are more likely to expect a collapse into fascism” via Philip Bump of The Washington Post — Harris offered brief public remarks addressing comments made this week by former White House Chief of Staff John Kelly, who served in that position under Trump. “This is a window into who Donald Trump really is from the people who know him best, from the people who worked with him side by side in the Oval Office, in the Situation Room,” Harris said. “And it is clear from John Kelly’s words that Donald Trump is someone who, I quote, ‘certainly falls into the general definition of a fascist.’”

“Kamala Harris seizes on former Trump aide’s warning that he fits ‘fascist’ label” via Patrick Svitek, Jonathan Edwards and Tyler Pager of The Washington Post — A former top aide’s declaration that Trump meets the definition of a “fascist” has intensified a fiery debate over whether Trump has authoritarian tendencies and would abuse governmental power in a second term, thrusting long-standing warnings about the Republican’s character into the heat of the presidential campaign’s final stretch. Former White House chief of staff John F. Kelly, a retired Marine general, said in discussions published Tuesday that Trump’s desire for unfettered power and other qualities fit the fascist label. Mark T. Esper, who served as Trump’s secretary of defense, added Wednesday on CNN that “it’s hard to say” Trump doesn’t fall into the category of a fascist. Those comments followed a warning from retired Gen. Mark A. Milley, former Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, in a new book by The Washington Post’s Bob Woodward that Trump is “fascist to the core.”

“As Democratic icons stump for Harris, GOP elders keep distance from Trump” via Cleve R. Wootson Jr. of The Washington Post — Several people who once occupied the White House are now energetically crisscrossing the country on behalf of Harris: Bill Clinton was recently in North Carolina, Barack Obama will head to Georgia on Thursday and his wife, Michelle, will be in Michigan on Saturday for the start of early voting. Even former President Jimmy Carter, receiving hospice care at age 100, marked a ballot for Harris during early voting in Georgia this month. On the other side of the race, the only former President campaigning for Trump is Trump himself. Many people who have led the Republican Party in recent decades have largely distanced themselves from Trump, a fissure he has not publicly lamented and seems to embrace openly.

Harris-Walz ad targets Hispanic voters; spotlights Capitol Police Sergeant — The Harris-Tim Walz campaign is launching an ad in English and Spanish as part of the campaign’s Hispanic voter outreach effort. The ad, “Real Heroes,” features former Capitol Police Sgt. Aquilino Gonell slamming Trump for calling Jan. 6 insurrectionists “warriors” while denigrating officers who defended the Capitol. “The oath that we took to defend our democracy, we take seriously. He does not. I defended the Capitol on Jan. 6. But now we all must defend democracy with our vote,” Gonell says in the ad. The campaign said the ad is part of a $370 million investment in TV, radio, and digital reservations until Election Day. “Real Heroes” will air across battleground states in markets that reach Latino voters, emphasize high-viewership events, and shows, including Major League Baseball World Series coverage, soccer matches, Fox Deportes, Univision, and Telemundo.

To watch the ad, please click the image below:

 

“These Democratic voters hiding in plain sight could be Harris’ ticket to a North Carolina win” via Michael Kruse of POLITICO — Mecklenburg is the second-biggest county in a state that is tied for the second-most electoral votes among the seven swing states — but it holds North Carolina’s single biggest stockpile of Democrats. It’s also of late had a dubious record of conspicuously abysmal turnout. Drive up that rate, in the estimation of Drew Kromer, the 27-year-old first-term Chair of the county party, get the many Democrats here to vote the way they could and should, and Mecklenburg can be on a vanishingly short list of the most politically consequential counties in the country. Since Kromer, a data buff and self-described politics nerd, was elected Chair in April 2023, the county party has upped its fundraising, its paid staff, its roster of volunteers, and its canvassing and phone-banking and all-around organizational oomph exponentially.

“This election is also a choice between two visions of the federal courts” via Mattathias Schwartz and June Kim of The New York Times — Federal judges have always wielded significant influence. But as Congress has failed to pass major legislation in recent years on issues like abortion, immigration and gun ownership, the courts have assumed a more pronounced role, setting the agenda on some of the country’s most divisive questions. When voters pick the next President, they will also choose between two visions of the federal judiciary. Federal judges are nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate, and almost all will serve for life, shaping American law for generations. President Joe Biden and former President Trump understood the judiciary’s powerful sway over American life. Trump succeeded in naming more federal judges in a single term than any President had since Jimmy Carter, and Biden is close behind.

— 2024 — FLORIDA —

“‘We can win Florida’: Harris’ husband Doug Emhoff rallies for VP in red state” via Richard Luscombe of The Guardian — In terms of presidential elections, at least, Florida has fallen a long way since its heady days as the ultimate swing state. Seven cycles from the 537-vote cliffhanger in 2000 that was finally resolved when the U.S. Supreme Court placed George Bush in the White House, Florida is so reliably red, and Trump is so confident of picking up its 30 Electoral College votes that he has barely campaigned here. For the same reason, the Sunshine State has not featured on Harris’ schedule either. So, some eyebrows were raised when second gentleman Doug Emhoff, Harris’s husband, rolled up on Wednesday to rally Democrats in Fort Lauderdale and Miami on a break from stumping in the battleground states of the northeast.

“New poll shows Florida’s recreational pot measure floating right at 60% threshold to pass” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — A new poll shows support for a recreational pot amendment in Florida right at the 60% threshold to pass. Poll results show that 60% of likely Florida voters support Amendment 3, which would legalize marijuana for recreational adult use. About 34% of voters will vote against the amendment, while less than 6% remain undecided. Florida law requires 60% of voters to support an amendment to enshrine it in the Florida Constitution. That puts the measure on the edge, especially considering the poll’s 3.3-percentage-point margin of error. The same poll found Trump and Scott ahead in Florida, with Scott’s lead within the margin of error over Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.

“Trulieve’s Kim Rivers goes on the road to ‘set the record straight’ on Amendment 3” via Mitch Perry of Florida Phoenix — A new television ad by the campaign to defeat the proposed constitutional amendment to legalize adult use of recreational cannabis in Florida has sent the business executive behind the initiative to some of the state’s biggest media markets to “set the record straight,” specifically when it comes to the product getting in the hands of minors. Kim Rivers is CEO of Trulieve, the biggest marijuana company in Florida and one of the largest in the nation. The company has invested over $80 million to get Amendment 3 passed in Florida this Fall, and recent polls show the measure could overcome the 60% threshold required to make Florida the 25th state to legalize recreational cannabis. Rivers made stops in Tampa, Orlando, and Jacksonville on Tuesday to describe how medical marijuana works and how the distribution system mitigates any threat of minors getting access to high-level THC products.

“Jack Campbell worries legalizing weed will make it hard to find criminal dealers” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — Prosecutors may not crack down on marijuana possession as they did decades ago. But Leon State Attorney Campbell said laws outlawing pot remain valuable to prosecutors dispensing justice. The top prosecutor in Florida’s 2nd Judicial Circuit, Campbell criticized a ballot measure that could legalize recreational weed in Florida. One of the most prominent Democrats in Florida opposed to Amendment 3, he said the criminal justice system can responsibly handle execution of Florida’s laws with discretion and should not lose a valuable tool. “For many years now, certainly before medical marijuana, I think the state’s policies on marijuana have evolved, certainly, with this office,” Campbell said.

Happening today — Several Florida Sheriffs, joined by Florida First Lady Casey DeSantis, will come together to educate the public on how the legalization of recreational marijuana will jeopardize the health and safety of Floridians and lead to a lower quality of life for all: 12:30 p.m. EDT, Fraternal Order of Police Jacksonville Lodge 5-30, 5530 Beach Blvd., Jacksonville. RSVP at [email protected].

“Ron DeSantis facing criticism for holding news conferences to advocate against Amendment 4” via Riley Phillips of First Coast News — The battle over abortion in Florida continues as DeSantis faces criticism for holding news conferences where he encourages people to vote ‘no’ on Amendment 4. On Monday, doctors joined DeSantis for a news conference in Miami advocating against Amendment 4. Then, on Tuesday, he made two stops: one in Jacksonville and one in Winter Garden. Those appearances were also held with doctors advocating against the amendment. “Once it’s in the constitution, there really is no going back, practically speaking, you won’t be able to fix any problems that will inevitability come out when you have these kinds of things,” DeSantis said during a news conference on Oct. 22.

“Amendment 4 tops Ballotpedia’s most-watched ballot measures for 2024” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — Amendment 4, which would codify abortion protections in the Florida Constitution, is at the top of Ballotpedia’s list of the most-watched ballot measures across the nation this year. The nonprofit outlet just published its tally of the 15 ballot measures and trends that voters will most have their eyes on Nov. 5. Abortion-related referendums in Arizona, Nebraska, and Nevada and cities in California and Texas also made the list. So did Florida’s expensive Amendment 3, which would legalize recreational cannabis in the Sunshine State. However, due to three factors, Amendment 4 will undoubtedly be among the most-watched, Ballotpedia staff wrote. Florida has the largest population among states considering a statewide abortion measure. The state has also trended more Republican in recent elections. And Florida requires a 60% vote for Amendment 4 to pass, a higher threshold than the others.

— 2024 — DOWN-BALLOT 1 —

“Florida Republicans are trouncing the early voting as statewide lead expands” via Eric Daugherty of Florida’s Voice — Florida Republicans are storming the polls after in-person early voting opened up Monday. Before the in-person voting began, Democrats held a statewide lead over Republicans of close to seven points. Now, as of 11:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Republicans lead the state’s combined early and mail-in voting by nearly six points – a shift of close to 13 points in just a few days. The in-person early voting is crimson red: Republicans hold an advantage at the time of reporting of over 26 points. What’s more – some previously blue counties in 2020 on the early vote are flipping or nearly flipping Republican. Those include Pinellas, Duval, Miami-Dade, and others. Miami-Dade County has posted impressive numbers for Republicans on the in-person vote. At the time of reporting, the GOP holds an in-person lead of close to 16 points.

“Anna Paulina Luna leads Democratic opponent by six points for re-election” via Eric Daugherty of Florida’s Voice — Rep. Luna, first elected in 2022, is leading Democrat Whitney Fox by six percentage points. The poll found that Luna had 51% and Fox 45%. The same survey had Luna ahead by five points in August, 48% to 43%. It was conducted in the 13th Congressional District from Oct. 6-7 among 403 likely voters. Few polls have been conducted in the district; as aggregated by ABC/538, one from St. Pete Polls found Fox leading by four points, but that outlet’s most recent poll has the race tied. Luna, a first-term representative and prominent supporter of Trump, handily won her race by eight points in 2022.

“Lois Frankel-Dan Franzese Congress rematch pits traditional Democrat vs. MAGA-verse” via Anne Geggis of the Palm Beach Post — The congressional contest to represent east-central Palm Beach County, including constituent Trump, who also is on the ballot, is a rematch of the 2022 race between the area’s six-term Democratic Congresswoman and a retired finance executive who has numerous figures from the MAGA-verse endorsing him. Democratic U.S. Rep. Frankel, the former Mayor of West Palm Beach, was first elected to Congress in 2012. She built her name on championing traditional Democratic causes, such as abortion and LGBTQ rights. Her opponent, Franzese, highlights border security, cheaper gas and his agreement with Trump’s MAGA agenda in his campaign. His biography touts his beginnings as a carpenter’s assistant and his rise to a successful financier managing pension funds.

— 2024 — DOWN-BALLOT 2 —

—”Democrat Nate Douglas says it’s time Orlando voters kick a homophobe out of Florida’s legislature” via Jacob Ogles for Advocate

“Political newcomer from nonprofits takes on 2-time incumbent in HD 84” via Laurie K. Blandford of Treasure Coast Newspapers — A political newcomer is taking on a two-term incumbent to represent part of the Treasure Coast in the House. Andi Poli, a Democrat, is challenging incumbent Dana Trabulsy, a Republican, in the race for House District 84. It covers most of St. Lucie County, including Fort Pierce and part of Port St. Lucie. Trabulsy has raised more money and spent more money than Poli, according to campaign finance reports as of Oct. 22. Trabulsy has $281,890 in contributions compared to Poli’s $35,670, and Trabulsy has $102,789 in expenditures compared to Poli’s $23,267.

“Debra Tendrich touts wave of organizations backing her HD 89 campaign” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — Tendrich is stacking organizational endorsements ahead of her Nov. 5 showdown for the seat representing House District 89. Tendrich’s campaign announced 10 additional supporters of her campaign. They include the Palm Beach Post, Florida Education Association, Democratic Environmental Caucus, Run For Something, Women’s Issues Now Inc., Blu-PAC, Palm Beach County Human Rights Council, Democratic Hispanic Caucus and the Florida East chapter of Associated Builders and Contractors. “I am incredibly proud to receive such a wide variety of endorsements across various industries and backgrounds,” she said. “This broad coalition demonstrates my ability to unite people for the greater good of District 89 and all of Florida.”

“Key House seat pits incumbent Republican against Dem challenger” via Alexandra Clough of the Palm Beach Post — Democrat Jay Shooster hopes to unseat Republican Peggy Gossett-Seidman on Nov. 5 in House District 91, which encompasses Boca Raton, Highland Beach and unincorporated neighborhoods west of Boca Raton. Democrats long held the seat in this wealthy section of the county, but recent redistricting made it more attainable for Republicans, allowing the incumbent Gossett-Seidman to win it in 2022. HD 91 is considered a toss-up race between Gossett-Seidman, a Michigan native and longtime resident of Highland Beach, and Shooster, a Broward County native who lived in New York for most of the past decade before moving to Boca Raton in 2022.

Happening tomorrow:

— STATEWIDE —

“DeSantis announces $1M disaster award to help hurricane-hit fisheries, seeks federal aid” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — Efforts to repair and rebuild fishing and aquaculture infrastructure damaged by Helene and Milton are getting a $1 million boost. DeSantis announced the funding award, which will come from the Florida Disaster Fund and go toward restoring boat slips, docks, fish houses and other structures across the Big Bend region. “The Big Bend’s fishing industry took a direct hit from Hurricanes Debby and Helene, and so did the hardworking Floridians who make their living on the water,” DeSantis said in a prepared statement. “Today’s investments will help to rebuild critical waterside infrastructure and help get Floridians in the fishing and aquaculture industries back to full operations.”

“A Florida State climate expert explains why hurricanes are getting stronger” via Gina Jordan of WFSU — No tropical threats are in the forecast for our area. That’s fortunate because parts of the Big Bend and large swaths of Florida are still dealing with the aftermath of multiple direct hits from major hurricanes this season. Storms that move into the hot Gulf of Mexico are intensifying quickly. Reality is scary enough without the abundant misinformation and disinformation on social media. Dr. Jeff Chanton appeared on the latest edition of the weekly program Speaking Of to discuss this. Chanton is a distinguished professor at Florida State University specializing in Oceanography and Environmental Science.

“Florida Everglades restoration is progressing, but scientists say it needs improvement” via Bill Kearney of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel — The long-running effort to restore the Florida Everglades has seen progress at a “remarkable pace” in the past two years. But more could be done to bolster those efforts, said the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine report, which reviews Everglades restoration progress every two years at the request of the federal government’s builders, the Army Corps of Engineers. Their recommendations include incorporating the varied ramifications of climate change into restoration plans and doing a better job of partnering with the Seminole and Miccosukee indigenous tribes, which have lived in the Everglades for centuries. Working closely with tribes would better protect cultural heritage tied to the land and give biologists a deeper understanding of the ecosystem over time — tribal knowledge of how the Everglades works has been passed down over centuries.

“Florida jobless rate holds steady for six straight months” via Drew Dixon of Florida Politics — It’s been half a year since the Florida general unemployment rate has changed, as the September jobless figure came in at 3.3% yet again. FloridaCommerce reports that last month’s unemployment figure held steady and hasn’t seen an uptick since a modest 0.1-point increase in early Spring. It also means Florida’s monthly unemployment rate has remained below the national figure for 47 straight months. The national rate now stands at 4.1%. State officials attribute Florida’s stable employment picture to enhanced job growth. September saw an increase of 175,600 jobs compared to September 2023.

— D.C. MATTERS —

“Infant mortality got worse after Roe reversal. Experts are investigating.” via Ariana Eunjung Cha of The Washington Post — Hundreds more babies died than expected in the year and a half after the Supreme Court ended the constitutional right to abortion in June 2022, raising questions about the ripple effects of the ruling on maternal and child health. In findings published this week in JAMA Pediatrics, researchers said the shift was detectable several months after the decision. In some months, infant mortality jumped by as much as 7%, or 247 excess deaths, from the baseline before the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization ruling, which overturned Roe v. Wade. Alison Gemmill, a demographer at the Bloomberg School of Public Health at Johns Hopkins University who was not involved in the new research, said she was surprised by the magnitude of the change.

“North Korean troops are in Russia, would be ‘legitimate targets’ in Ukraine, U.S. says” via Dan Lamothe, Missy Ryan and Michelle Ye Hee Lee of The Washington Post — The U.S. government has evidence that at least 3,000 North Korean soldiers are in Russia receiving training, senior Biden administration officials said Wednesday, a development they said could have global implications and make those troops “legitimate military targets” in Ukraine should they enter the ongoing war there. The disclosure, which officials said is based on newly declassified U.S. intelligence, coincides with similar pronouncements from the governments of Ukraine and South Korea in recent days. NATO and the United States had not previously confirmed the North Korean troop movements, and the administration said Washington was doing so now to convey the seriousness with which it views the matter. “We recognize the potential danger here,” John Kirby, a spokesperson for the National Security Council, said. “And we’re going to be talking to allies and partners, including Ukrainians, about what the proper next steps are going to be.”

“Bots linked to China target Republican House and Senate candidates, Microsoft says” via Steven Lee Myers of The New York Times — Dozens of inauthentic accounts on X linked to China have been assailing Republican members of Congress running for re-election in Alabama, Tennessee and Texas, accusing them of corruption and promoting their opponents. Those targeted include Reps. Barry Moore in Alabama and Michael McCaul in Texas and Sen. Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee. All have been critics of China and its policies, though the posts also criticized Moore for supporting Israel, frequently using antisemitic language, the report said. The accounts are part of a coordinated influence operation known as Spamouflage.

“Justice Department warns Elon Musk that his $1 million giveaway might be illegal” via Theodore Schleifer and Glenn Thrush of The New York Times — The Justice Department sent a letter to the super PAC founded by Musk this week warning that awarding $1 million to registered voters who signed a petition might violate federal laws against paying voters. Similar warning letters from the department’s public integrity unit have been sent to businesses and organizations that tied promotions to voting and are intended to suggest that continuing such activity could result in a criminal investigation. The letters typically do not outline the department’s next steps and are designed to force the recipient to make changes to conform with the law.

“Tax lobbying ramps up in third quarter ahead of elections” via Caitlin Reilly of Roll Call — Lobbyists this year have stressed the need for companies to engage early on next year’s expiring tax provisions, warning of the compressed timeline and the possibility that any issue could land on the chopping block amid long wish lists and pressure to curtail deficits. It seems the private sector got the message, if quarterly lobbying disclosures filed Monday are anything to go by. Mentions of the expiring 2017 tax cuts in lobbying filings increased sharply last quarter, up 33% from the second quarter and 67% from the first three months of the year. Interest in the expiring provisions is likely higher than is captured in reports citing the law, as many filings cite specific policies, rather than the law by name. In contrast, mentions of the $79 billion family and business tax break package in lobbying filings declined over the same period, despite Senate floor action last quarter, possibly reflecting growing cynicism about the bill’s chances amid opposition from Senate Republicans.

— LOCAL: S. FL —

“Palm Beach County Sheriff’s race: Ric Bradshaw and Michael Gauger battle over spending, Trump assassination attempt” via Shira Moolten of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel — A heated race between the sitting Palm Beach County Sheriff and his former top deputy will soon conclude as voters head to the polls to decide whether to re-elect incumbent Sheriff Bradshaw to a sixth term or opt for a change in former chief deputy Gauger. They are fighting to lead one of the most influential departments in the county with a budget of close to $1 billion. And their battle comes amid heightened stakes: an attempted assassination of Trump in the middle of the election thrust Bradshaw and the Sheriff’s Office into the national spotlight.

“‘Herculean effort’ underway for Vero Beach beachside debris removal and disposal” via Nick Slater of Treasure Coast Newspapers — Milton swept through Florida nearly two weeks ago, unleashing at least three tornadoes in the city. The twisters wreaked considerable damage to trees, vegetation and buildings, forcing a multipronged cleanup effort by the city, beginning with vegetative debris removal. As of Tuesday, eight debris collection crews had removed nearly 11,000 cubic yards of vegetation from city rights of way, according to Public Works Director Matthew Mitts. The city hopes to hire more personnel soon. “It’s been a Herculean effort,” said City Manager Monte Falls. “Necessity is the mother of invention, and we are working fast to get all the debris removed and the city cleaned up. But our resources are spread thin.”

“After public backlash, Miami Mayor vetoes City Commission vote for lifetime pensions” via Tessi Riski of the Miami Herald — After more than a week of silence following a controversial vote by Miami City Commissioners to approve lifetime pensions for themselves, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez has issued a rare veto, reversing a decision that caused a maelstrom of backlash last week. In a message attached to the veto, Suarez said Wednesday that he has “historically been opposed to a publicly funded pension system for elected officials.” Suarez said he was advised by the city attorney that if he signed the pension legislation and opted into the pension program, “it would create a vested right that could not be undone by any subsequent Commission action or reconsideration.”

“Palm Beach State Attorney vows to prosecute threats against election workers ‘to the fullest extent of the law’” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — If you think it’s a good idea to harass election workers, you’d do well to steer clear of Palm Beach County, according to State Attorney Dave Aronberg. Aronberg’s Office just issued a warning to would-be bullies with the aim of intimidating, threatening, or harming people working at polling sites across the county — and those visiting them to cast ballots. “Election officials and poll workers have an essential role in our democratic process. Any threats, intimidation or acts of violence against them will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law,’ Aronberg said in a statement. “This is a critical time for the safety and security of our elections. We want voters to know that they can cast ballots without fear or intimidation and that those who threaten this process will face serious consequences.”

“U.S. District Judge rules that Joe Carollo can protect Coconut Grove home from seizure” via Tess Riski of the Miami Herald — U.S. District Judge Rodney Smith has ruled that Miami City Commissioner Carollo can protect his Coconut Grove home from seizure, blocking an effort by Little Havana business owners Bill Fuller and Martin Pinilla to collect on a $63.5 million judgment they were awarded last year after a jury found that they were victims of a political retaliation campaign pushed by Carollo. The order landed more than nine months after the U.S. Marshals Service posted a notice on the front gate of Carollo’s property, initiating the seizing of the 5,243-square-foot residence. Valued at $2.5 million, the house is the single largest asset for Carollo.

“County OK’s $75 million grant to get convention center hotel going” via Richard Battin of Miami Today — Miami-Dade has had its foot on a stubborn groundbreaking shovel for a hotel next to the Miami Beach Convention Center for almost a decade. It may have just started to dig in a little last week when Commissioners agreed to toss another $75 million into the $500 million-plus project. That could get the 28-month hotel-building task started in early 2025 and opened by 2027. County Commissioners unanimously approved a resolution regarding a 1993 amendment to an agreement between the county and Miami Beach last week. Neither the amendment nor the agreement says anything about building a hotel next to the convention center. The deal centers on refinancing bonds. The first and only time a hotel is mentioned is in a revised resolution submitted by Commissioner Eileen Higgins at the Oct. 16 Commission meeting.

“Where will Broward’s homeless be housed? A look at six sites offered for consideration” via Lisa J. Huriash of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel — Six locations in Broward County have been proposed to consider for easy-to-build temporary homes for the homeless. And there is little time left: In two months, a new state law begins letting the public sue local governments if they don’t think enough is being done to get the homeless off the streets. “We can’t let grass grow under our feet,” Broward Mayor Nan Rich told County Commissioners, urging them to move the project along. “I’m trying to get across the sense of urgency.” Historically, neighbors have typically opposed plans to house the homeless near where they live, often citing safety and nuisance concerns.

“Man accused of threatening Broward Judge, sending photo to his lawyer to verify ID” via Rafael Olmeda of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel — A former North Miami man has been arrested in Indiana, charged with threatening to shoot the Judge handling a misdemeanor case that would have seen him get off without spending a day in jail, according to court records. Emmanuel Francois, 30, was set to plead guilty to resisting arrest without violence in front of Broward County Judge Phoebee Francois, no relation. He worked out a plea agreement that would have him admit guilt and pay a fine, said his lawyer, James Lewis. But Francois, the defendant, now living in Indiana, failed to show up to two court dates to enter his guilty plea.

— LOCAL: C. FL —

“Candidate with no experience, arrest history runs for Volusia Sheriff ‘to make a change’” via Sheldon Gardner of the Daytona Beach News-Journal — James Powers Jr. has no law enforcement experience, no history of running for office, and a string of arrests. Yet, he sold his motorcycle to raise the funds to run for Sheriff of Volusia County against one of the most popular incumbents on the ballot. His chances seem slim. So, why is he doing it? “To make a change,” Powers, a Republican, said in an interview with the Daytona Beach News-Journal. Powers sees Sheriff Mike Chitwood as a bully who is overreaching his authority. “Once the boot’s on the back of your neck, it’s too late.” Chitwood, who is running as an independent, calls Powers a “clown.”

“Mayor’s race and two Council races contested in Titusville, as city heads for new leadership” via Tyler Vazquez of Florida Today — Titusville’s City Council will have new members this year after the Mayor’s seat and one City Council position opens up. The incumbent Mayor and one City Council member failed to win Primary races for new offices. Because incumbent City Council member Joe Robinson left office early to run for the Mayor’s seat, the Seat 3 winner will serve only the remaining two years of his term. Robinson lost his bid for Mayor, finishing third in the Primary to Vickie Conklin and Andrew Connors, who now both head into November’s runoff race because no candidate received more than 50% of the vote in the Primary.

“Six candidates up for three seats on Melbourne City Council in November election” via Michelle Spitzer of Florida Today — In addition to voting for a Mayor, Melbourne residents will elect three other City Council members. Districts 1, 3, and 5 are up for election and are voted on by all Melbourne residents, no matter where they live. Candidates, though, must live in the district they are running in. Two candidates are running in each district. They include business owners, former political candidates and community leaders. Candidates in District 1 are Dean Paterakis and Marcus Smith. The incumbent, Tim Thomas, is completing his second four-year term and could not seek re-election to the City Council because of term limits.

“Shauna Hume, Susan Ruimy square off in Indian Harbour City Council Seat 3 race” via Rick Neale of Florida Today — In a race featuring two self-financed candidates, incumbent Hume and challenger Ruimy are running for Seat 3 on the Indian Harbour Beach City Council. Indian Harbour Beach is in the transition period of switching from three-year terms to four-year terms, City Clerk Sue Frank said. This year’s Seat 3 election winner will serve a two-year term in office. Then, in 2026, Seat 3 will switch to a four-year term, Frank said. Indian Harbour Beach has a five-member City Council that includes the Mayor. City Council members earn $250 a month.

“Seminole’s only homeless shelter says it needs more funding for the coming year” via Michael Cuglietta of the Orlando Sentinel — Seminole County’s only homeless shelter will need $600,000 in government aid to keep its doors open throughout next year, the facility’s executive director said. But the Board of County Commissioners, after hearing the request at its meeting, did not commit to spending that much on the Rescue Outreach Mission, located in Sanford. Chris Ham, the Executive Director, said that since 2021, an influx of federal COVID-19 relief money has helped the shelter to operate and expand its services. But those funds ran out last month, and the shelter’s budget for 2025 is about $1.6 million. Ham said Rescue Outreach Mission expects to raise about $800,000 from private donations.

“Port Canaveral reports record 7.6 million passengers for fiscal year” via Richard Tribou of the Orlando Sentinel — The cruise business is booming at Port Canaveral, with nearly 7.6 million passenger movements recorded in the fiscal year. From October 2023 through September 2024, the Orlando-area port had 911 ship calls, only five more than it saw in fiscal 2023, but because of bigger ships sailing at more than 100% capacity, the cruise side of the year’s budget blew up by 800,000 passengers year over year. The line had already expected bigger returns in 2024. Still, the year ended with nearly $191 million in operating revenue, earning about $60,000 more than logged in 2023, according to unaudited totals reported for a Canaveral Port Authority Board of Commissioners meeting.

“Disney World annual prices are getting more expensive, report says” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics — More Disney World fans are reportedly taking out debt to afford their Orlando theme park vacations. Those folks certainly won’t appreciate the news that Disney World annual prices are increasing by 3-7%, or about $30 to $100, depending on the option. That’s according to Scott Gustin, who covers the theme parks. Gustin reported that a new Incredi-Pass to get unlimited access to Disney World now costs $1,549 — up from $1,449. Annual passholders wanting to renew that pass must pay a discounted $1,299, up from $1,229. The cheapest pass is the Pixie Dust, which allows primarily weekday-only visits at Disney World.

“Council member, educator Joie Alexander remembered for fearlessness, love for Volusia County” via Clayton Park of the Daytona Beach News-Journal — When news spread that Alexander was gravely ill, it spurred an outpouring of visitors to the Spruce Creek Fly-in home of the longtime Volusia County Council member and Volusia County Schools educator. “There was an endless stream of people that went way back whose lives she touched,” said close friend Billie Wheeler, a former Volusia County Council member. Alexander, 84, died on Oct. 8. A celebration of her life will be held Monday, Nov. 4, from 11:30 a.m. to 1:30 p.m. at The Palmetto Club at 1000 S. Beach St. in Daytona Beach. The Rotary Club of Daytona Beach is putting on the event. Alexander was a member and a Paul Harris Fellow of the club.

— LOCAL: TB —

“Tampa insurer with $450M+ in losses from Milton still ‘in a strong financial position,’ CEO says” via Christina Georgacopoulos of the Tampa Bay Business Journal — Milton is racking up eye-watering losses for property insurers. He will likely push earnings for the Florida market in 2024 into the red for a ninth consecutive year. Heritage Insurance expects gross losses from Milton to reach the third layer of its reinsurance program, ranging from $450 million to $914 million. Its $1.3 billion reinsurance program will cover much of Heritage’s claims, but it will still bear some losses from this year’s stormy hurricane season. It expects approximately $48 million in losses from Debby and Helene for the third quarter and $57 million for Milton in the fourth. HCI Group, another Tampa-based carrier, expects to have between $600 million and $750 million in gross losses between the three hurricanes.

“Hillsborough County Commissioners unanimously decide to direct $60M to Milton debris relief” via Matthew McClellan of Fox 13 — On Wednesday, the Hillsborough County Board of Commissioners decided to transfer $60,000,000 from the county’s budget and put the funds toward emergency cleanup efforts. The decision comes two weeks after Milton landed near Siesta Key in Sarasota County. The seven-member Board voted unanimously to move $60 million out of the county’s Catastrophic Disaster Recovery Fund and into the county’s Disaster Events Fund set aside for recovery efforts post-Milton. The move was recommended by Hillsborough County Management and Budget Director Kevin Brickey, who said the amendment is necessary to remove debris and other costs associated with emergency protective measures.

“Perfect storm” via Justin Peters of Slate — On Oct. 10, as the sun rose on Milton’s damage inflicted on Tampa Bay, the consensus seemed to be that the region had gotten lucky. Initially, as it made its way east across the Gulf of Mexico, Milton looked potentially devastating. A direct hit would have inflicted catastrophic, region-remaking losses on Tampa and its environs due to NASCAR-speed winds and unprecedented storm surge levels. Instead, Milton veered south, making landfall near Siesta Key and thus sparing Tampa from the worst-case scenarios that many had predicted. Yes, the roof of Tropicana Field was shredded, perhaps beyond repair, but the Tampa Bay Rays draw approximately 12 people per game anyway — so, honestly, what’s the difference? “Crisis averted,” said the world, and then the world stopped thinking about Florida and resumed worrying about the election.

“Hillsborough County wants investigation after flooding from hurricanes” via Justin Garcia and Teghan Simonton of the Tampa Bay Times — Hillsborough County plans to hire consultants to investigate why several areas of the county that rarely or never flood were inundated with water after Helene and Milton. The Hillsborough Board of County Commissioners signed off on an idea to work with Tampa and Plant City to probe what Commissioner Pat Kemp called “devastating flooding” in areas where people weren’t warned. Kemp asked for the investigation to focus on Forest Hills, Pine Crest and regions of Plant City and near the University of South Florida.

“How many gallons of wastewater spilled in St. Pete?” via Mark Parker of St. Pete Catalyst — Milton unleashed torrential rains and winds on St. Petersburg two weeks ago today. However, many storm-related community impacts remain unclear. City officials have filed two dozen pollution notices with the Florida Department of Environmental Protection (FDEP) in Milton’s aftermath. All are related to untreated wastewater spills; three lack volume estimates. At least 5.9 million gallons of sewage spewed from 55 utility holes citywide during and after the storm, according to Samanth Bequer, the City’s public information officer. However, that does not include overflows from two shuttered water reclamation facilities. For context, an offline Northeast Water Reclamation Facility accounted for 67% of the nearly 1.5 million gallons that flowed throughout St. Petersburg neighborhoods during Helene. Justin Tramble, executive director of the nonprofit Tampa Bay Waterkeeper, said the spills exemplify a regional problem.

“‘I’ve had enough’: Shore Acres homeowners selling flooded homes ‘as is’ for investors” via Nadeen Yanes of ABC Action News — Since Helene and Milton, dozens of homes have hit the Tampa Bay market. Homeowners are selling ‘AS IS’ and ‘CASH ONLY’ for investors, ready and willing to walk away after being flooded in the storms. That includes Ali Linville, who is now selling her 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in Shore Acres. “I just want to leave,” said Linville. “I mean, once you’ve had it done three times, it’s like, OK, I’ve had enough,'” She bought her home in 2021 at $575,000. Since then, it’s flooded three times. “I can’t live in a flood zone where you are constantly having to move out for six or seven months,” she said. With her home down to the studs again, she’s decided to sell it. It’s now listed at $425,000.

“FEMA offered free hotel stays to displaced residents. Pickings are slim.” via Shauna Muckle of the Tampa Bay Times — Jennifer Gans felt relief when she learned she could stay in a hotel for free while awaiting repairs to her Shore Acres home. No more splitting time between her boyfriend’s place an hour north and assorted friends’ homes. No more guilt about taking up other people’s space. “We’re all living in like nine different areas,” she said. “I basically am strewn all across Tampa Bay.” On Thursday, the Federal Emergency Management Agency announced that eligible residents whose homes were rendered uninhabitable by Helene and Milton — could have hotel stays funded at a list of properties that are part of the agency’s transitional sheltering program. Residents were notified of their eligibility last week.

“Lisset Hanewicz backs Mike Harting to build a better future for St. Pete” via Janelle Irwin Taylor of Florida Politics — Hanewicz is endorsing Mike Harting as her next colleague on the dais in District 3. Noting that Harting is “the best choice for St. Petersburg,” Hanewicz chose the 3 Daughters Brewing co-owner over his opponent, restaurateur Pete Boland. “As a business owner, he has demonstrated leadership by thoughtfully and quickly responding to unexpected events,” Hanewicz said, referring to 3 Daughters using its brewery to produce hand sanitizer for free distribution during the pandemic. Hanewicz also credited Harting with opening his parking lot amid two recent hurricanes that caused widespread devastation “for those needing a safe space for their vehicles.” Those in low-lying or coastal areas faced having cars flooded out if they weren’t moved to higher ground.

“Wengay Newton rolls out slate of endorsements spanning the political spectrum” via Janelle Irwin Taylor of Florida Politics — Known for his willingness to reach across the aisle and alliances with conservatives, Newton rolled out this week a slate of endorsements spanning the political spectrum, as he enters the home stretch in his race for St. Petersburg City Council, District 7. Though the City Council is a nonpartisan Board, Newton is a Democrat who previously served in the House and, before that, served two terms in the district he’s now seeking again. The endorsements include the Tampa Bay Times, Sen. Darryl Rouson, City Council member Gina Driscoll, the Suncoast Police Benevolent Organization, the St. Petersburg Association of Firefighters and Paramedics Local 747, the Pinellas Realtor Organization, former Mayor Rick Baker, former City Council members Robert Blackmon and Jeff Danner, Florida Rising and SEIU Florida.

“Displaced Rays secure interim office space, pitch in to help community” via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times — As assessment of Milton’s damage to Tropicana Field continues, the Rays have secured temporary office space at a nearby building. The team said Wednesday a move into the former United Insurance Holdings Corp. building at 800 2nd Ave. S should be complete by mid-November. The staff has been working remotely since the fierce storm shredded the Trop’s roof and caused other damage on Oct. 9. “We are eager to bring our organization back together under one roof,” Rays President Matt Silverman said. “We have work to do and new challenges to meet as we prepare for Opening Day 2025 next March.”

— LOCAL: N. FL —

“Leon Commission District 4 candidate forum: Brian Welch and Dr. Isaac Montilla debate park, politics” via Arianna Otero of the Tallahassee Democrat — Leon County Commissioner Welch and opponent Montilla debated several issues facing District 4 in a recent candidate forum. The District 4 race is one of two County Commission races that will be on the ballot in November. Montilla is a local chiropractor and entrepreneur and has built his campaign on three pillars: Accountability, responsible growth and wanting to see a stronger community. On the other hand, Welch has worked as a social studies teacher at Chiles High School for the past 18 years and says that his record “speaks for itself.” The forum was part of the ongoing candidate forums between the Tallahassee Democrat, WFSU, and the League of Women Voters of Tallahassee ahead of the November General Election.

“A rift is growing between the Fort Walton Beach City Council and Chamber of Commerce” via Collin Bestor of the Northwest Florida Daily News — A rift seems to be growing between the Fort Walton Beach City Council and the Fort Walton Beach Chamber of Commerce. Toward the end of Tuesday’s Fort Walton Beach City Council meeting, during elected officials’ open comments, Council member John Mead said that the Chamber had sent an email saying his services are no longer required at Chamber meetings until after his term expires in March 2025. Mead, who was appointed to the Fort Walton Beach City Council in September 2023 to fill the vacancy left by Larry Patrick, volunteered to be a Council representative at Chamber meetings shortly after becoming a member, as he had no appointments at the time.

“Fort Walton Beach City Council begins process to fill seat vacated by David Schmidt” via Collin Bestor of the Northwest Florida Daily News — The Fort Walton Beach City Council has begun filling a vacancy in the Council. The vacancy came after Council member Schmidt’s resignation, effective Monday. Schmidt had to forfeit his seat on the Council because he campaigned for an open Okaloosa County School Board seat. He lost to Dewey Parker Destin, 18,752 votes to 14,730, in the Aug. 20 Primary. On Tuesday, the City Council agreed to start the nomination process akin to how it filled a vacancy after former Council member Larry Patrick resigned in August 2023.

“Carissa Bergosh faces Rich Holzknecht for Escambia County schools District 4 seat” via Mary Lett of the Pensacola News-Journal — Bergosh and Holzknecht will face off for the Escambia County School Board’s District 4 seat in the Nov. 5 General Election. The post is held by Patty Hightower, who has served five terms on the School Board but did not seek re-election. Four candidates initially sought the seat; however, none received the 50%-plus-one majority in the August Primary. Holzknecht garnered 30.8% of the ballots cast, while Bergosh received 29.2%. Both candidates listed teacher retention and student discipline as major priorities.

“Judge extends deadline for disgraced ex-JEA CEO to turn himself in due to hurricane damage to his home” via Tobie Nell Perkins of First Coast News — Five years after attempting to swindle Jacksonville’s electrical utility out of hundreds of millions of dollars, disgraced ex-JEA CEO Aaron Zahn will stay out of prison for a few extra months. At the end of an arduous, drama-filled saga from March 2019 to August 2024, Zahn was sentenced to four years in federal prison for conspiracy to embezzle federal property and wire fraud. A jury found Zahn guilty after a monthlong federal trial in March 2024.

“Born from antisemitic hate messages, Jacksonville fund has boosted Jewish, other programs” via Beth Reese Cravey of The Florida Times-Union — The Together Strong Community Fund has awarded $1 million in grants since it was created two years ago after public antisemitic hate messages in Jacksonville. The fund has supported a Community Security Initiative at the Jewish Federation & Foundation of Northeast Florida and the creation of the federation’s Jewish Community Relations Council. It also has provided seed funding to establish a Hillel, or Jewish organization, at the University of North Florida. It has also supported the First Coast Relief Fund and the Jacksonville Transformation Coalition’s response to racially motivated shootings in New Town in 2023. Grants also funded school field trips to a Museum of Science and History exhibit based on archival photographs of girls and young women lost during the Holocaust.

“City of Jacksonville wins national award for resiliency strategy” via Ric Anderson of Jax Daily Record — The city of Jacksonville has received a national award for its work to protect the city from flooding, intense heat and other severe weather. The American Planning Association announced that the city would receive the 2024 National Planning Award for Resilience and Sustainability for its Resilient Jacksonville strategy, establishing a framework for hardening the city from climate risks over the next 50 years. “The City of Jacksonville is honored to be recognized by the APA for our groundbreaking Resilient Jacksonville strategy,” Mayor Donna Deegan said in an Oct. 23 news release. “We are proud of the innovative approach and the hard work our staff dedicated to this effort. It is vital that we work together with all stakeholders to achieve a resilient future for Jacksonville.”

“‘No reason to delay’: State opposes Charlie Adelson’s request to hear conflict claims” via Jeff Burlew of the Tallahassee Democrat — Lawyers for the state argued that Adelson’s appellate case should not go back to a lower court to address alleged conflicts of interest in his murder trial, which ended last year with guilty verdicts and a life sentence. Last week, Alelson’s appellate lawyers, Michael Ufferman and Laurel Niles, filed a motion asking that the 1st District Court of Appeal temporarily relinquish the case to the circuit court — a possible first step in trying to get a new trial. They said that would allow the defense to raise claims about conflicts of interest stemming from Miami defense attorney Dan Rashbaum’s representation of both Charlie Adelson and his mother Donna Adelson.

“University of Florida student accused of spitting on officer during protests accepts plea deal” via Kairi Lowery of Fresh Take Florida — A University of Florida senior accused in April of spitting on a campus police officer while his classmates were being arrested during pro-Palestinian protests accepted a plea deal Wednesday that lets him avoid any time behind bars. In the courtroom, Alachua County Circuit Judge Phillip A. Pena lectured Allan Hektor Frasheri, 21, of Largo. Pena told him that spitting on a police officer was “demeaning, it’s inappropriate and unnecessary.” Pena also ordered Frasheri to apologize in a letter to the officer, Maj. Kristy Sasser. “This is much more offensive and distasteful than pushing someone,” Pena said.

— LOCAL: SW FL —

“As Manatee County Commission votes to oppose Amendment 4, residents express outrage” via Jesse Mendoza of the Sarasota Herald-Tribune — Manatee County resident Glenn Pearson argued that there was no room for government interference in 1995 when he and his wife decided to carry their child despite concerns over a possible stillborn. On Tuesday, he again pleaded that there was no space for politicians in 2024 during a county meeting where Republican Commissioners voted unanimously to publicly oppose Florida’s Amendment 4. The measure was added to the Manatee County agenda with little notice, but Pearson was among 11 residents who spoke out during the public meeting. “He’s 29 years old today, and I’m glad that we had him,” Pearson said.

“Milton ravaged one of the most popular areas for ‘snowbirds’ on Florida’s Gulf Coast” via The Associated Press — The start of “snowbird” season in Florida is only weeks away. Still, many Florida Gulf Coast beaches, regularly voted some of the best in the United States, are closed to the public because of the devastation from Milton two weeks ago. Most restaurants and shops in the tony St. Armands Circle district of Sarasota were flooded with water from Milton and Helene, which tore through Florida almost two weeks ahead of Milton. The dominant performing arts hall in Sarasota is closed until January because of extensive damage. Mounds of debris are scattered along Gulf Coast roads. Milton’s devastating toll along Florida’s Gulf Coast hit one of the most popular areas for snowbirds — temporary residents who spend winter months in the Sunshine State — right before the start of the season, which generally runs from after Halloween to around Easter.

“Milton caused $280M in damage in Collier County” via Laura Layden of the Naples Daily News — Property damage from Milton is estimated at $280 million in Collier County. The estimate includes residential and commercial property and government infrastructure based on a “rapid assessment” by the county’s Growth Management Department. The cost was shared with County Commissioners at a Board meeting during a presentation by Dan Summers, the county’s Emergency Management Director. He provided an after-action summary of impacts and response to Milton, which made landfall near Siesta Key on Oct. 9 as a Category 3 storm. In Collier, the storm was no Hurricane Ian, which caused $2.2 billion in damage countywide in 2022.

“As season begins, Sarasota, Manatee tourism looking for quick rebound from hurricanes” via Derek Gilliam of the Sarasota Herald-Tribune — Tourism drives a multibillion-dollar industry in Sarasota and Manatee counties, built on a reputation of white sand beaches near comfortable, welcoming communities featuring quality restaurants and entertainment venues. Snowbirds from across the country flock to Southwest Florida every year to escape cold weather, pull up a beach chair, and enjoy several months of Florida sunshine, spending their dollars at restaurants or buying products at other local businesses. But what a national audience saw splashed across screens over the last few weeks after Helene and then Milton blasted the area was anything but comfortable or welcoming, as the one-two punch of the powerful storms left large swaths of Florida on a long road to recovery that will take months to navigate.

“North Port Commission approves ordinances related to Nov. 5 referendum on borrowing” via the Sarasota Herald-Tribune — The City Commission unanimously approved two ordinances that will help provide North Port voters key information as they decide whether to change how the city borrows money for projects not financed by property taxes. One vote established a debt management policy, and the second created a five-member Debt Management Advisory Committee of five residents with a background in capital projects, financing, or government operations. Both items were approved in a session that technically was the Oct. 8 meeting delayed by Milton. The second reading of both ordinances will be at a special 9 a.m. meeting on Nov. 4.

“Marco Island police union pushes to meet with City Manager after Chief no-confidence vote” via J. Kyle Foster of the Naples Daily News — Marco Island City Manager Mike McNees has agreed to meet with members of the local police union without Police Chief Tracy Frazzano. The Fraternal Order of Police Lodge 95 voted no-confidence in the Chief on Sept. 28 and asked to meet with city staff about their concerns, said lodge President Jonathon Gray. On Oct. 11, McNees emailed Gray, saying he would meet with Frazzano and suggested a meeting between Frazzano and the union members “at which time the chief would have the opportunity to address and discuss the points you brought forward.” “I see my role in that meeting as facilitating the most productive conversation possible as we chart a course forward,” McNees said in the email.

— TOP OPINION —

“The clock is ticking on Harris” via Jonathan Martin of POLITICO — Merely condemning the former President and celebrating what unites Americans isn’t enough. Yet Harris just can’t seem to go beyond that to sketch out what her version of Washington in 2025 would look like.

That reluctance is confounding Democrats, who hear the echoes of Hillary Clinton’s campaign in Harris’ focus on Trump’s character. “You picking up 2016 vibes?” one Democratic lawmaker texted without prompting on Tuesday.

I grasp the delicacies involved. Democrats have always been a coalition party, a patchwork of constituencies. That coalition has grown more cacophonous in the Trump era, as the party has stretched from socialists to, quite literally, the Cheney family.

However, successful modern Democrats have always found a way to reassure the vital center while retaining their liberal base. And the determination bordering on desperation across the coalition to beat Trump offers Harris more latitude than most of her Democratic forbearers. That’s why she was with Liz Cheney in the first place.

The former congressperson invoked the rule of law and the Constitution before quickly turning to Trump’s “cruelty” as he watched the attack on the Capitol unfold.

The former President, she said, is “a man who’s unfit to be the President of this good and honorable and great nation.”

Millions agree, which is why Trump has never come close to a majority in his previous two elections. But what more evidence is required from those two elections that litigating Trump’s character and fitness is insufficient?

The onus is on the Vice President to reassure voters.

And, remarkably, at this late date, she remains reluctant to tell fence-sitters what they want to hear: not that Trump is a bad man, but that she won’t steer America to the left.

— OPINIONS —

“James Carville: Three reasons I’m certain Harris will win” via The New York Times — Trump is a repeat electoral loser. This time will be no different. The biggest reason Trump will lose is that the whole Republican Party has been on a losing streak since Trump took it over. See 2018: the largest House landslide for Democrats in a Midterm since Watergate. See 2020: He was decisively bucked from the White House by Biden. See 2022: an embarrassment of a Midterm for Republicans off the heels of Dobbs. And the Democrats have been performing well in Special Elections since Trump’s appointees on the Supreme Court helped take away a basic right of American women. Guess what? Abortion is on the ballot again — for President. Since joining the race, the Vice President has raised an eye-boggling $1 billion, and last quarter, one of her fundraising committees reeled in $633 million — dwarfing what Trump raised with two committees combined. My final reason is 100% emotional.

“If he loses, the former President cannot rerun his 2020 legal playbook” via David French of The New York Times — The conspiracy theory was the election lie itself, that Trump had been cheated out of an electoral victory that was rightly his. This required him to essentially commandeer a compliant and corrupt right-wing media establishment to broadcast his election lies to tens of millions of angry and disappointed Republicans. The conspiracy theory created the demand for the coup. Without right-wing rage, there would be no appetite to try to overturn the election. And stealing the election required a legal plan. Every element of Trump’s plan — including both his media and legal strategy — is less feasible today. Each branch of the government has responded to Trump’s coup attempt, and his ability to challenge any election outcome has diminished.

“This is why you don’t recognize your state government” via Mary Ellen Klas and Carolyn Silverman for Bloomberg — The most underappreciated story this election year is happening everywhere and yet is entirely overshadowed by the race for the White House. No matter who wins the presidency, the nation is going in two different directions. That’s because more states have fallen under one-party control — either Republican or Democrat — than at any time in modern U.S. history. The shifting dynamic is suppressing competition in elections, discouraging voter engagement, and, in too many places, enabling the party in power to ignore perspectives outside of their base. In short, political choice is vanishing. In 40 “trifecta” states, compromise has lost its luster, and large groups of voters are being sidelined with little influence over the decisions that affect their lives.

“Which Florida judges should be booted off the bench — and why these votes are maddeningly difficult” via Scott Maxwell of the Orlando Sentinel — Most everyone knows whether they prefer Harris or Trump. But how on earth are you supposed to know whether Paetra T. Brownlee deserves to keep her seat on the 5th District Court of Appeal? It’s hard to cast an informed vote — especially since this state’s legal community has largely abdicated its responsibility to help voters do so. But a few judges have made ugly headlines that can help make your decisions easier. For instance, two Supreme Court justices are asking to keep their seats: Renatha Francis and Meredith Sasso. I’m saying no to both. Neither justice deserves to remain on the state’s highest court because they tried to improperly thwart your right to vote this year. Not just according to me. According to their peers on the court.

“Ashley Moody must be a glutton for punishment” via Nate Monroe of The Florida Times-Union — A surprising concession is buried in the latest filing from Florida Attorney General Moody’s office in a federal lawsuit over Amendment 4: Despite threats from the Florida Department of Health of potential prosecution against TV stations that continue running a pro-Amendment 4 political ad, the agency “has disclaimed enforcement under the present circumstances,” Moody’s lawyers told U.S. District Judge Mark Walker. Those are passive-voice weasel words designed to obscure a more humiliating truth: Prosecuting TV stations for the crime of running pro-Amendment 4 ads would be a stunning First Amendment violation. “To keep it simple for the State of Florida: it’s the First Amendment, stupid,” Walker wrote. Despite Walker’s admonishment last week, her office filed a brief Tuesday filled with arguments Walker already shredded. Remarkably, her office’s filing simultaneously defends the actions of Florida officials as lawful while disclaiming the underpinnings of the state’s own argument.

“Jeff Brandes: The paradox of safety — how cheap flood insurance drives us closer to danger” via Florida Politics — Despite well-known risks, people continue to build homes right along the coastline. Why? The answer lies in a surprising culprit: cheap, federally subsidized flood insurance. While intended as a safety net, this program has inadvertently driven more people to build in harm’s way, amplifying both natural disasters’ human and financial costs. It encouraged people to live closer to the very hazards the program was meant to protect them from. When insurance becomes a political issue and politicians focus more on affordability than on accurately reflecting risk, the true dangers are masked. As a result, people behave as if those risks don’t exist at all. The end result? More homes are built in vulnerable flood zones, and disaster recovery costs spiral out of control.

— INSTAGRAM OF THE DAY —

— ALOE —

“UCF student, tracker of celebrities’ jets gets social accounts suspended. What we know” via Samantha Neely of USA Today Network— A University of Central Florida student infamous to several celebrities has declared that his jet-tracking accounts have been “zucked.” Meta, formerly the Facebook company, has suspended several of Jack Sweeney’s accounts that post location updates for private jets of some of the world’s most influential people, from politicians to pop stars. In a statement to his personal Threads account, Sweeney said he had 38 accounts banned across several platforms. He added that he did not receive any warnings from Meta and said this situation is a poor look for the company. He also said he could not appeal these suspensions to Meta’s Oversight Board. He said the company’s “lack of transparency” makes the situation more concerning.

“Despite Florida’s difficult storm season, stone crab season is clawing ahead“ via Lindsey Liles of Garden and Gun — Come Fall, stone crabs take to hustling along the sandy bottoms, rocky outcrops, and seagrass beds along the Atlantic coast during their winter migration. And fishermen are hustling to catch them, especially in Florida, which provides nearly all of the nation’s haul of stone crab claws. This Southern delicacy represents the most expensive domestic seafood in the country in dollars per pound. Though providers, restaurants, and crab claw enthusiasts were worried about how Helene and Milton might affect the season’s opening on Oct. 15, it’s still moving forward as best it can. “The storm delayed throwing out the traps prior to the season starting,” says Roger Duarte, the CEO of Florida-based George Stone Crab, the largest vertical stone crab operation in the country. In a typical year, commercial players in the stone crab fishery can start catching crabs 10 days before the season’s opening date. However, many fishermen were hesitant to put out their thousands of traps.

“Legoland Florida giving free tickets to first responders, veterans and military members” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics — Legoland Florida is giving out free tickets this Fall to first responders, military members and veterans as a thank you for their dedicated community service, the company announced this week. The limited deal is good for Nov. 1-30 at the family-friendly park in Winter Haven. To get the offer, people must purchase their tickets in advance “through local Military Offices, ID.me, or the GOVX website,” Legoland said in a press release. The park is also offering a special for those who qualify for the free tickets to buy up to six one-day tickets for 50% off to bring guests. “Legoland Florida welcomes front-line heroes to enjoy a well-deserved break with their families and build lasting memories out of LEGO bricks,” the company said. “Families can experience more than 50 rides, shows, and attractions.”

— HAPPY BIRTHDAY —

Celebrating today are two of our favorites, Kelly Cohen of The Southern Group and Erin Rock, also of The Southern Group.

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Sunburn is authored and assembled by Peter Schorsch, Phil Ammann, Daniel Dean, Ryan Nicol, Jacob Ogles, and Drew Wilson.