Janelle Irwin Taylor
The District 1 race for Pinellas County Commission is critical for Democrats, and an opportunity for Republicans.
With incumbent Democrat Janet Long retiring, the race is open. The contest pits political newcomer Chris Scherer, a Republican, against former Indian Rocks Beach Mayor Cookie Kennedy, a Democrat.
Democrats need to hold onto the seat if they want to stave off further gains by the local GOP after the Republican Party claimed a majority on the Commission just two years ago. Republicans are hoping for a flip that will cement that advantage for years to come.
Kennedy, who entered the race last May, is a Pinellas County native. She served as Mayor of Indian Rocks Beach for more than five years. She previously served as the Vice Chair of the Barrier Island Governmental Council.
Kennedy’s other public service includes work on boards for the Tourist Development Council and as Chair of Forward Pinellas, the county’s metropolitan planning organization.
Scherer entered the race about two months ahead of Kennedy, late last February. A graduate of Texas A&M University with a degree in finance, Scherer has lived in Pinellas County for 30 years. He founded Scherer Development in 1994, a company that provides clients with development services ranging from site selection and design to construction, leasing and property management.
Scherer served from 2010 to 2016 on the St. Pete Development Review Commission.
Scherer said he’s running “to protect and improve what makes Pinellas special,” which includes a platform of preserving the environment; lowering taxes; enacting term limits; supporting law enforcement; and securing elections.
The race is likely to be close, but signs point to a Republican edge.
The most obvious advantage for the GOP this cycle is a clear voter registration advantage. Republicans outnumber Democrats on the voter rolls by about 35,000 voters, with more than 207,000 Democrats and just under 243,000 Republicans. There are also more than 168,000 voters with no party affiliation and more than 19,000 registered with a third party.
That means Democrats will likely have to rely on support from no-party and third-party voters, while also hoping for some crossover support from registered Republicans.
While it creates a challenge for Kennedy, her support so far has included bipartisan nods.
This Summer, Kennedy earned an endorsement from the Pinellas and Central Pasco Realtor Organizations, groups that tend to back conservative candidates they view as being more lenient on property rights issues.
Endorsements for Kennedy so far include a bipartisan slate of current and former elected officials and community advocates. That includes, among others, Pinellas County Commissioner Charlie Justice; Pinellas County School Board member Caprice Edmond; Belleair Beach Mayor Dave Gattis; Indian Shores Mayor Diantha Schear; Dunedin City Commissioner Jeff Gow; Indian Rocks Beach Mayor Denise Houseberg; North Redington Beach Mayor Bill Queen; Redington Shores Mayor Lisa Hendrickson; Indian Rocks Beach Vice Mayor Janet Wilson; Seminole Vice Mayor Trish Springer; Indian Shores City Commissioner Bill Smith; Indian Rocks Beach City Commissioners John Bigelow and Jude Bond; Seminole Vice Mayor Trish Springer; and St. Pete City Council member Gina Driscoll.
Scherer, meanwhile, has rounded up support almost exclusively from conservatives, including Sens. Nick DiCeglie and Ed Hooper; Pinellas County Commissioners Dave Eggers, Chris Latvala and Brian Scott; former Education Commissioner and House Speaker Richard Corcoran; former St. Pete Mayor Rick Baker, former Sen. Jeff Brandes; and more. Scherer also has support from the Suncoast Police Benevolent Association, among other groups.
Kennedy also faces a funding disadvantage. As of Oct. 18, Kennedy had raised just under $151,000. Scherer, meanwhile, had raised nearly $169,000 to his official campaign, and another nearly $175,000 to his affiliated political committee, Friends of Chris Scherer. As of the most recent reports, Scherer maintained about $34,000 in his campaign account, with his committee run dry. Kennedy maintained only about $3,000.
The GOP has been eyeing Long’s seat for years, coming within striking distance four years ago, but narrowly missing the chance to flip her seat. Long defeated Republican former Rep. Larry Ahern in that race by just 1 percentage point.
Republicans this year are also competing for the District 3 seat held by Democrat Charlie Justice, who also only narrowly secured re-election four years ago. Justice faces Republican challenger Vince Nowicki.
It’s widely believed that if Republicans flip even one of these seats it will be next to impossible for Democrats to recover and regain a majority within the next decade. If Democrats hold them, strategists believe taking back a majority could be possible within a cycle or two.
