Winner and Loser of the Week in Florida politics — Week of 5.11.25

If you’re a member of The Process wondering if it’s safe to make Memorial Day Weekend plans amid continued budget bargaining, have no fear.

The inertia of the last few weeks is still keeping lawmakers frozen, as Senate President Ben Albritton laid out in a Thursday memo.

“Over the past week, Chair Hooper and I have continued to have productive discussions with our partners in the House on joint budget allocations,” Albritton wrote to members, referring to budget chief Ed Hooper.

“I believe we are making progress; however, we are not in a position to begin budget conference next week. Senators do not need to return to Tallahassee prior to Memorial Day. We plan to announce further scheduling updates mid-week, before the Holiday Weekend to provide as much advanced notice as possible.”

Remember, budget conferencing was supposed to start this past week. Then it got delayed a week as animosity soared. Here we are with another week and another delay.

And that animosity is still going strong, with House Speaker Daniel Perez again laying into Albritton during remarks on the House floor this week.

This is beginning to resemble a grand construction project facing delay after delay after delay. Usually paired with that is a surging cost estimate. And if lawmakers can’t agree to a solid deal in enough time, Floridians may be the ones bearing the costs of this standstill.

Now, it’s onto our weekly game of winners and losers.

Winners

Honorable mention: Brian Ballard. Everything seems to move quickly in today’s media environment. But even by that standard, there was a whiplash-inducing turnaround surrounding reporting about Ballard Partners.

First, a POLITICO story claimed late last week that Ballard Partners was in the White House doghouse due to a member of the firm pushing President Donald Trump to promote a crypto coin that, unbeknownst to him, was backed by a Ballard client.

Ballard himself issued a statement slamming “false accusations from unnamed sources” in response to a request for comment.

And sure enough, the very next day, there was reporting that Ballard was in the White House for meetings. Then, right at the start of this week, Axios added another report confirming that Trump and Ballard had achieved a “reset.”

To be fair, that POLITICO report did say Ballard had been “at least temporarily iced out” of Trump’s orbit, language that gave them “CYA” protections should the story promptly be blown up, as it was. But when you need to add such a huge hedge to your reporting, that can be a sign of its flimsiness.

Immediately after that report dropped, we predicted the eventual outcome. Our publisher, Peter Schorsch, wrote, “If Ballard is, in fact, ‘iced out,’ it won’t be for long. In fact, I won’t be surprised to see him sitting next to POTUS at Mar a Lago in the near future. If stock in Ballard is down today, you’d be a fool not to buy the dip.”

Not saying we told you so, but …

And that wasn’t the end of the saga. This week then saw Ballard Partners drop publisher Axel Springer from its client list, nixing a $500,000 deal. Axel Springer publishes both POLITICO and Business Insider, the latter of which also pushed a recent piece labeling Donald Trump Jr. as the “new Hunter Biden,” accusing Trump Jr. of cashing in on his father’s name.

Both outlets do plenty of good work, and we hope their reporters — and those from other outlets — will continue to have access to this administration amid newly reported threats that the Trump administration could go after the outlets.

But as of now, their parent company is the only one “iced out” in this scenario. And Ballard will continue chugging along as a lobbying powerhouse.

Almost (but not quite) the biggest winner: Hamburger Mary’s. The restaurant chain landed a big win in court over a Florida law aiming to outlaw drag shows. (And Republicans can spare us the line that the law never explicitly mentioned “drag shows,” as Gov. Ron DeSantis made it clear who the legislation was targeting.)

A federal appeals court issued an injunction on enforcing the law, which the court said was “likely unconstitutional.” The case hasn’t been decided on the merits just yet. But the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals upheld a lower court’s decision to block the law from being enforced while the remainder of the legal arguments play out.

Of course, courts consider the case’s likely outcomes when deciding upon these injunctions. That, plus the appeals court’s comments, makes it seem like this law is going to be struck down.

“Florida’s SB 1438 (the ‘Act’) takes an ‘I know it when I see it’ approach to regulating expression,” the court wrote in its opinion. “The Act prohibits children’s admission to ‘live performances’ that Florida considers obscene for minors. But by providing only vague guidance as to which performances it prohibits, the Act wields a shotgun when the First Amendment allows a scalpel at most.”

That sure sounds like Judges are skeptical of the law’s future.

Of course, the Supreme Court will have the ultimate say here. And the conservative-leaning court may well hold differently in the end.

But Hamburger Mary’s, which filed the original suit, can celebrate a for-now temporary win. The chain may have closed its Orlando location, but it still operates in Jacksonville and in several locations throughout the U.S.

This ruling, plus a separate federal court decision allowing the Naples Pride Fest to take place outdoors, gave Florida’s LGBTQ community multiple wins this week.

The biggest winner: Wilton Simpson. Congratulations to the Agriculture Commissioner, who saw DeSantis sign priority legislation this week.

The Florida Farm Bill allows for a ban on advertising plant-based products as meat and milk if other Southern states agree. The bill also bans people from operating drones over farmland and offers grants to build electric vehicle charging stations in fiscally constrained regions.

Simpson was on hand at Thursday’s signing ceremony in — appropriately — Simpson Lakes.

The bill also, controversially, bans local governments from including additives — i.e. fluoride — in public water sources. That provision has gotten a ton of attention, and rightfully so for such a lightning rod topic. But the reality is that many local governments had moved in this direction in the weeks and months before the legislation passed.

Many municipalities that disagreed will be forced on the issue going forward. But overall, this legislation aims to help the farming communities Simpson has fought for during his time in the Legislature — including as Senate President — into his tenure as Agriculture Commissioner.

Losers

Dishonorable mention: Gary Farmer. Farmer is now suspended from the bench as a review of his activity as a Broward Circuit Judge continues.

And that could end with a permanent ban on serving as a Judge.

Farmer had pushed for the Florida Supreme Court to allow him to continue hearing cases while his conduct remained under review. But a recommendation by the Florida Judicial Qualifications Commission’s Investigative Panel that Farmer be suspended won out.

When we first noted the accusations against Farmer, we mentioned that his big mouth has gotten him in trouble in the past, causing him to lose his job as Senate Democratic Leader after implying then-future Leader Lauren Book may not be able to handle the job because it might be too difficult to balance the position and being a mother.

He then left the Senate rather than face a contested Primary following redistricting, and we noted that he ended up in what should be a cushy fallback gig as a Judge.

But Farmer has managed to even screw that up, and now will need to sit on the sidelines while his judicial colleagues rule on his fate.

Just an incredible screwup here.

Almost (but not quite) the biggest loser: David Hogg. Hogg appears to be on his way out as a Democratic National Committee (DNC) Vice Chair, as the party seems to want to send the Florida Man packing.

Hogg has made headlines over his desire to support a group looking to primary Democratic incumbents in deep-blue districts. The thinking from Hogg is that current party leaders have failed — see Trump’s stunning 2024 re-election — and targeting these incumbents in seats Democrats are guaranteed to win in the General Election anyway is a low-risk method to get some fresh blood into Congress.

The DNC, whose existence depends on defending the Democratic establishment, unsurprisingly disagrees with this plan. DNC Chair Ken Martin has pushed Hogg to reconsider or step down.

But the party says the effort to remove Hogg as Vice Chair actually stems from a procedural complaint about his original election, not from his controversial advocacy efforts.

Notably, Florida’s DNC representatives say they’ll back Hogg in this fight, which must now be voted upon by the full DNC.

“The results of the DNC Vice Chair elections were clear, and the will of the voters should be respected,” Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried said.

“The Democratic National Committee has been in desperate need of young, innovative leadership, and David and Malcolm have worked to meet that need since day one. Tossing them out of office is unfair to them and an insult to the members they inspired to vote for them — members who adopted these rules themselves. A majority of Florida’s delegation will vote no on this resolution. We have work to do, and this isn’t it.”

Still, the writing appears on the wall for Hogg. He may very well turn this episode into an example of the Streisand effect and leverage this attention going forward.

But for now, it looks like he may be out of a job he actively sought just a few months after getting in place.

The biggest loser: City of Treasure Island. At least Milton got it right.

Just a day after Milton declined to hire Anthony Sabatini’s law firm to represent the city, Treasure Island somehow voted unanimously to hire a man rejected repeatedly by his own colleagues and Florida voters, and who has lost big case after big case.

Milton wisely went instead with GrayRobinson, a well-respected law firm that, you know, can win important cases in court.

Treasure Island, meanwhile, went with a guy who was once warned that he could be sanctioned if he didn’t stop filing ridiculous lawsuits against mask mandates.

But that’s Sabatini’s whole schtick: appealing to people who get riled up over X posts rather than accomplishing anything of real significance.

It’s unclear whether Treasure Island officials are unaware of Sabatini’s repeated failings, his previously wearing blackface or his violent remarks and quotation of a notorious dictator. In that case, apologies to the residents because you’re in for a rude awakening.

Or maybe they’re well aware and this is the whole point. In that case, you get the legal representation you deserve.