Florida Politics - Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government.

Drew WilsonNovember 1, 2018

New filings with the Federal Elections Commission show New Republican PAC, the political committee backing Gov. Rick Scott’s Senate bid, has pumped nearly $10 million into media buys since the end of last week. A trio of 24-hour finance disclosures show Scott’s committee put down more than $900,000 for a media placement opposing his Democratic […]

Peter SchorschOctober 31, 2018

Despite being outspent and hammered by PACs on everything from health care votes to yacht purchases, U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan appears primed to stave off a challenge from Democratic attorney David Shapiro in Florida’s 16th. The polls have been clear for quite a while. October polls have shown Buchanan with a growing, outside-the-margin lead: St. […]

Drew WilsonOctober 29, 2018

Environmental group Sierra Club is getting ready for Halloween with a new quiz inviting Floridians to face their “most rational worst fears” when it comes to Gov. Rick Scott’s environmental policy. “Halloween is right around the corner, and, tbh, there’s some super scary stuff going on this year. Bomb threats, white nationalism, embattled midterm elections, […]

Drew WilsonOctober 26, 2018

A new TV ad from Republican Gov. Rick Scott’s Senate campaign is going after incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson for his attendance record in Washington and saying it is time to force the third-term Democrat into retirement. The ad, titled “46 years,” beats the drum on several of the Scott campaign’s criticisms of Nelson, from his […]

Jacob OglesOctober 16, 2018

Freshly published reports show Democratic challenger David Shapiro had a strong quarter and raised more in individual contributions than Republican incumbent Rep. Vern Buchanan. But heading into the final stretch of the campaign, Buchanan holds a cash advantage of almost $1 million in the race for Florida’s 16th Congressional District. Buchanan pulled in $503,886 in contributions, […]

Drew WilsonOctober 9, 2018

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A month after claiming U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson was the most vulnerable incumbent nationwide, Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight says his odds of defeating Gov. Rick Scott are improving. Based on polls alone, the political forecasting website currently lists the third-term Democrat with a 57 percent chance of earning another six years in Washington. He fares a […]

Drew WilsonOctober 1, 2018

Republican Gov. Rick Scott and Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson are statistically tied in a new poll of November’s U.S. Senate race, though Scott holds a razor-thin edge. The St. Pete Polls survey, commissioned by Florida Politics, found Nelson, Florida’s only statewide elected Democrat, and Scott, who is term-limited after eight years in the Governor’s […]

Peter SchorschSeptember 19, 2018

If you pay close attention to the national political reporters, a blue wave the size of the one that capsized the Poseidon is about to usher in Democratic control of the U.S. House and possibly the Senate. The significant forecasters, including Nate Silver‘s FiveThirtyEight, the Cook Political Report, and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball basically give […]

Jacob OglesSeptember 2, 2018

With nominees now settled in all of Florida’s Congressional races this fall, prominent political forecasting website FiveThirtyEight has adjusted its forecasting model and suggests two more districts could be in play. The seats? Florida’s 25th Congressional District, now represented by Republican Mario Diaz-Balart, and Florida’s 15th Congressional District, represented by retiring Republican Dennis Ross. FiveThirtyEight […]

Ryan NicolAugust 30, 2018

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A new internal poll from the David Shapiro campaign shows him trailing, but within striking distance of, Vern Buchanan in the race for Florida’s 16th Congressional District. Conducted by ALG Research, the survey showed Shapiro earning 44 percent support among likely voters to Buchanan’s 48 percent — just within the poll’s 4.9 percent margin of error. The […]

Tag: FiveThirtyEight

Rick Scott PAC spends $10M on last-minute media blitz

Vern Buchanan primed to survive unprecedented negative assault in CD 16

Sierra Club opens ‘Rick Scott’s House of Horrors’

New Rick Scott ad says ‘it’s time to retire’ Bill Nelson

David Shapiro narrows cash gap with Vern Buchanan

FiveThirtyEight says Bill Nelson’s re-election odds are on the upswing

Bill Nelson, Rick Scott tied in battleground U.S. Senate contest

Something very weird is happening in Florida politics …

FiveThirtyEight foresees trouble for Mario Diaz-Balart, Ross Spano

Internal poll shows David Shapiro within striking distance of Vern Buchanan