Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics — 8.1.22

Good Monday morning. There are just three weeks left before Primary Election Day.

Listen up — With the Aug. 23 Primaries only three weeks away, a new Hunkering Down features four consultants from both sides of the aisle — Brett Doster, Christian Ulvert, Anthony Pedicini and Max Goodman — for an insider’s look at the interesting races to watch.

Please take a few minutes and give a listen here.

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Here are some items which caught my eye over the weekend.

👂👀🏆 — It’s no secret that President Joe Biden is unpopular, but after 18 months of gridlock, he’s starting to score some wins — gas prices are falling, the “chips plus” package is moving forward, and the Democratic majority may finally act to reduce drug prices. The only question is, will voters notice in time for the Democrats to pull out of their nose-dive?

🤼🤼🤼 — The Capitolist publisher has gone full Vince McMahon. In an 1,800-word scrawl, Brian Burgess points fingers at every publication but his own. Nobody was expecting a mea culpa, of course, but it probably would be better if he exercised his right to remain silent.

🗳️🗳️🗳️ — Election Day is around the corner and voters deserve to know as much as possible about the people running to represent them in the Legislature. That’s why Florida Politics has assigned Andrew Meacham — arguably our best writer — to get them on the line for deep-dive interviews. The first in the series, featuring HD 60 Democrat Lindsay Cross, is live and more are on the way.

👉🤷👈 — Democrats and Republicans have at least one thing in common: They both believe members of the other party are bullies who are spreading misinformation. They also look to party affiliation when choosing their friends. According to a University of Chicago poll, political views are a bigger factor than a potential friend’s taste in music or movies, ethnicity, religion, job, or even favorite sports teams.

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Who will win the Republican Primaries in Florida’s 13th and 15th Congressional Districts? Who will come out on top in the Democratic Primary for Governor? And who will not be running for President in two years?

For our latest Florida Influencer Poll, we asked a sample of political experts and insiders these questions and found pretty strong feelings.

In the Pinellas-based CD 13, 83% of Influencers say Anna Paulina Luna will repeat as the Republican nominee while only 12% believe Kevin Hayslett can manage to pull off a come-from-behind victory. Amanda Makki was the only other candidate to register, picking up the remaining 5%.

In CD 15, another Tampa Bay-area seat, a majority of Influencers (61%) are putting their chips on former Secretary of State Laurel Lee to win the GOP nomination. Exiting state Sen. Kelli Stargel was the pick for about a quarter of Influencers, while state Rep. Jackie Toledo garnered 14%. Two other Republicans are running but, just like voters in every CD 15 poll to date, Influencers paid them no mind.

And, in what was perhaps the least shocking prediction in the survey, Influencers say U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist will defeat Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried in the Democratic Primary for Governor. It wasn’t close — the former Republican Governor and 2014 Democratic gubernatorial nominee is seen as a likely winner by 94% of Influencers compared to just 6% who believe Fried will have the edge once all votes are counted.

Finally, Florida Politics asked Influencers which likely 2024 candidate they believe will ultimately not run for President. More than half (52%) said Biden — an uncontroversial pick, considering some in his own party are already flirting with mounting their own campaigns. The No. 2 pick was Donald Trump at 32%, followed by Gov. Ron DeSantis at 16%.

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In 100 days, Florida voters will choose whether to give DeSantis four more years or reverse course and elect the state’s first Democratic Governor since Lawton Chiles.

A memo from Crist’s gubernatorial campaign attempts to make the case that, for the third time in his political career, his name should be on the November ballot for Governor.

The campaign’s reasoning: he’s raised $14 million to date and cultivated more than 170 endorsements. Most importantly, the memo says, a recent poll showed Crist could eke out a victory.

No, it’s not a public poll. But it’s not one of the Crist campaign’s internal polls, either. According to a memo, the measure is “a secret poll conducted by a top GOP pollster showing Crist leading Ron DeSantis 48% to 47%.” The poll of 1,200 registered Florida voters was conducted in mid-May by Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio and was recently obtained by NBC News.

Whether Crist will be the Democratic nominee won’t be decided until the Aug. 23 Primary, but most signs are pointing in that direction as of now.

Crist leads his top rival, Fried, in the money race and most polls. The campaign notes that he’s currently polling at 55% among Democratic Primary voters, including among women and Black voters.

There are still a few weeks left for Fried to catch up, and her campaign has booked a boatload of ad time for the final push. Crist’s has, too. Now it’s time to see who has the better showing in the only poll that matters: Election Day.

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It wouldn’t be campaign season without a slew of TV ads — and new spots launched Monday that feature two candidates and a Sarasota tax referendum.

Laurel Lee vows to back police in new CD 15 ad — Republican Lee is launching a new ad in the race for Florida’s 15th Congressional District. Titled “Split Second,” the ad opens with a dramatization of an officer-involved shooting. “Police officers risk their lives to protect ours, they must make split-second decisions. Liberals condemn those decisions because they’ve never had to make them,” Lee says in the spot. She then highlights her career as a “conservative prosecutor” who was “appointed by Gov. DeSantis to safeguard our elections.” She concludes, “In Congress, I’ll defend the rule of law — and those who serve it.” Lee is one of five Republicans running for the Tampa Bay-area seat, with other major candidates including Stargel and Toledo. CD 15 will likely vote Republican in the General Election.

To watch the ad, click on the image below:

Doug Broxson drops new ad in SD 1 — Sen. Broxson is releasing a new ad in his re-election campaign for Senate District 1. Titled “Winning,” the TV ad spotlights the Panhandle Republican’s track record as a Senator, with shout-outs for his efforts to expand charter schools, cut taxes and reduce tolls on Garcon Point Bridge. The ad says Broxson is seeking another term “to stand with Gov. DeSantis” and “against Joe Biden and Washington’s woke liberals.” Broxson faces John Mills in the Republican Primary. Democrat Charlie Nichols is also running for the seat, though the district is safely Republican.

To watch the ad, click on the image below:

New ad says Ford O’Connell ‘might as well be a Democrat’ — A new ad produced by political committee Floridians for Positive Change lays into HD 77 candidate Ford O’Connell. “Rush Limbaugh warned us,” the ad narrator says, before playing audio from 2016 when the now-deceased conservative talk show host said O’Connell “wants to turn the Republican Party into a RINO party.” The ad then attacks O’Connell for supposedly trashing Ronald Reagan, calling Trump’s candidacy “beyond idiotic.” The closer: Rush was right. RINO Ford O’Connell: so liberal he might as well be a Democrat.” O’Connell is up against Tiffany Esposito in the Republican Primary for HD 77. The winner of the nominating contest will face Democrat Eric Engelhart in November.

To watch the ad, click on the image below:

It’s a no-brainer — Common Cents for Sarasota County today is launching its first campaign advertisement supporting the penny tax referendum that will appear on Sarasota County ballots this November. Benefiting the county since 1989, the nonpartisan referendum provides critical funding for public safety, water quality, the environment and other community needs. The nearly two-minute video advertisement, entitled “No-Brainer” showcases the beauty of Sarasota County and details how the penny tax has helped and will continue to help maintain the region’s quality of life. The referendum passed with more than 66% of the vote the last time it was up for renewal, with the Sarasota Herald-Tribune calling it a “solid-gold performer.” The ad highlights footage from all corners of the county that have received help from the penny tax, from a fire station in North Port to a fishing pier in Venice to a library in Englewood to parks in Sarasota and Longboat Key. “And the best part, tourists and visitors pay for over 20% of all the funds collected by the penny,” says the ad’s narrator, referring to a recent independent study.

To watch the ad, click on the image below:

— SITUATIONAL AWARENESS —

Tweet, tweet:

pic.twitter.com/ID8qlU1nJp

— Ron DeSantis (@GovRonDeSantis) July 30, 2022

—@KyLamb8: I was thinking, @ChristinaPushaw and @BryanDGriffin are two of the best press secretaries in the business, but one thing that really sets them apart is they don’t engage with desperate whataboutism. Good lesson here in fighting attacks from those unable to defend bad policies.

—@KevAKing: I like Charlie. I like Nikki Fried from a distance. I don’t know her. Both are acceptable choices. But I stopped reading this editorial after they said Charlie Crist appears “ready for prime time.” A world with less editorial boards and more actual newsrooms would be nice.

Tweet, tweet:

Monday. 47.#SomethingNew pic.twitter.com/52SkAmNJ85

— Nikki Fried (@NikkiFried) July 30, 2022

—@KevinCate: Can tell the candidates using RT farms and paying trolls because their videos get next to no views. Those RTs on their other tweets aren’t real.

Tweet, tweet:

Last night, when @LeaderBookFL told Josey and her daughter Sandy, from Vibing Hair Creation, that she’d “stop by sometime” (to see why landlord wasn’t keeping up), I’m pretty sure they weren’t expecting this.#LeadersLead https://t.co/2CPn6ocVen pic.twitter.com/2Xkba7D30O

— Sen. Jason Pizzo (@senpizzo) July 30, 2022

—@Alex_Patton: Today, the political fundraising emails are reaching a next level of crazy. Psssssst … The best FR email I ever sent was “max out and I will take you off the list and you’ll never from me again until next year …” Highest grossing email ever.

—@prchovanec: The idea that you can’t enjoy the artistic output of someone you disagree with politically is one of the most fanatical and nonsensical ideas out there.

—@GiancarloSopo: A new CBS poll shows a statistical tie among Hispanics in the 2022 generic ballot. Context: Democrats won Hispanics by 40 points in 2018. This is a seismic shift in American politics.

Tweet, tweet:

Legend. pic.twitter.com/5M45lJnSPU

— Pete Souza (@PeteSouza) July 31, 2022

— DAYS UNTIL —

The 10-day Florida Python Challenge kicks off — 4; Michael Mann and Meg Gardiner novel ‘Heat 2’ publishes — 8; Early voting begins for Primaries — 12; FBHA’s annual conference, BHCon2022, begins — 16; FRLA’s Operations and Marketing Summit — 17; ‘House of the Dragon’ premieres on HBO — 20; 2022 Florida Primary — 21; launch window opens for NASA to launch the Artemis I — 28; 2022 Florida Chamber Technology & Innovation Solution Summit — 30; ‘Andor’ premieres on Disney+ — 30; ‘The Lord of the Rings’ premieres on Amazon Prime — 32; NFL Opening Night: LA Rams vs. Buffalo Bills — 38; 2022 Emmys — 42; JMI’s 2022 Tech & Innovation Summit begins — 45; Vote-by-mail mailing deadline for General Election — 66; Deadline to register for General Election — 70; 22-23 NHL season begins — 71; Cormac McCarthy’s ‘The Passenger’ releases — 85; Jon Meacham’s ‘And There Was Light: Abraham Lincoln and the American Struggle’ releases — 85; Florida Chamber Annual Meeting & Future of Florida Forum — 86; Early voting begins for General Election — 89; 2022 General Election — 99; Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’ premieres — 102; ‘Captain Marvel 2′ premieres — 104; FITCon 2022 begins — 108; ‘The Flash’ premieres — 108; The World Cup kicks off in Qatar — 112; The U.S. World Cup Soccer Team begins play — 112; McCarthy’s ‘Stella Maris’ releases — 113; Florida TaxWatch’s Annual Meeting begins — 121; ‘Willow’ premieres on Disney+ — 121; ‘Avatar 2’ premieres — 137; Super Bowl LVII — 195; ‘Ant Man and the Wasp: Quantumania’ premieres — 200; 2023 Legislative Session convenes — 218; ‘John Wick: Chapter 4′ premieres — 235; 2023 Session Sine Die — 277; ‘Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3’ premieres — 277; ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ premieres — 305; Christopher Nolan’s ‘Oppenheimer’ premieres — 354; ‘Blade’ reboot premieres — 459; ‘Dune: Part Two’ premieres — 473; ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ Part 2 premieres — 606; Opening Ceremony of the 2024 Olympic Games — 725; ‘Thunderbolts’ premieres — 725; ‘Fantastic Four’ reboot premieres — 830; ‘Avengers: The Kang Dynasty’ premieres — 1,005.

— TOP STORY —

“‘Ghost’ candidate probe subpoenaed money transfer by GOP consultant’s nonprofit” via Annie Martin of the Orlando Sentinel — A group called “Foundation for a Safe Environment” contributed to another group, “Let’s Preserve the American dream,” which funded an ad blitz promoting independent candidates in three state Senate races two years ago. The candidates, including one in Central Florida, did not campaign for those positions but were promoted as progressive alternatives in an apparent attempt to siphon votes from the Democrats in those races.

The Foundation for a Safe Environment payment was disclosed in a new investigative report as part of the Miami-Dade State Attorney’s Office’s case against former state Sen. Frank Artiles, accused of bribing a friend to run in a Miami-area state Senate race. Artiles has pleaded not guilty and is scheduled to stand trial in September.

According to the report, prosecutors subpoenaed the Gainesville-based nonprofit for records relating to the transfer in December. The report pegged the amount at $600,000.

Stafford Jones, who works closely with the GOP consulting firm Data Targeting, is the director of the Foundation for a Safe Environment. Data Targeting ran Florida Senate Republicans’ campaigns in 2020.

The transfer from Foundation for a Safe Environment was reported on Sept. 30, 2020, just one day after Let’s Preserve the American dream sent $600,000 to Grow United, a dark money nonprofit run by consultants working closely with Florida Power & Light. That money was used to produce the ads that went to homes in Central and South Florida promoting the independent candidates.

— 2022 —

“National GOP primary poll: Donald Trump 43%, Ron DeSantis 34%” via John McCormack of National Review — Suffolk has a new national poll showing DeSantis as a very competitive candidate against Trump in a 2024 GOP primary. DeSantis also appears to have more room to grow than Trump does. When Suffolk asked GOP voters to name their second choice, DeSantis was picked by a plurality.

“Charlie Crist visits Brevard for meet-and-greet, blasts ‘Rotten Ron’ in campaign swing” via Finch Walker of Florida Today — Crist took his campaign for Florida Governor across the state Saturday for meet-and-greet events, stopping in Tampa, Polk County, and Kissimmee before coming to Brevard County in the evening. The former Republican Governor of Florida and three-term Democratic member of Congress is running as a Democrat to return to the Governor’s Office. He spoke Saturday evening at Brevard County school board member Jennifer Jenkins’ home in Satellite Beach, sharing some of his campaign goals and taking a handful of questions from the gathering of about 80 community members. “I’m enjoying fighting for you. I’m trying to bring the sunshine back to the Sunshine State, because it’s been dark under this clown,” he said, referring to DeSantis.

“Nikki Fried calls DeSantis, other GOP leaders ‘creepy’ for bringing culture wars to Florida schools” via Ana Goñi-Lessan of the Tallahassee Democrat — Fried slammed DeSantis and Education Commissioner Manny Diaz Friday for encouraging schools districts to ignore federal anti-discrimination law and risk the loss of federal funds for free or reduced-price school meals. Calling it “extremism politics,” Fried said she “will not allow Gov. DeSantis or anyone to deny food to hungry kids for any reason.” Diaz told school districts in a two-page memo released Thursday that they do not have to make accommodations for trans girls and called out the Fried’s office for suggesting schools display “And Justice for All” anti-discrimination posters in schools. Crist, Fried’s Democratic primary opponent, also condemned DeSantis and Diaz, calling the memo “a new low for this administration.”

Fried slams response to gender identity, sexual orientation guidance — Agriculture Commissioner Fried excoriated the DeSantis administration and Diaz after the latter encouraged schools to disregard the Biden administration’s guidance prohibiting discrimination based on gender identity or sexual orientation. As reported by Andrew Atterbury of POLITICO Florida, Fried said Diaz “overstepped his role” and that the administration is “politicizing school lunch programs and jeopardizing safety and well-being of Florida students — and it’s all because of a poster.” Fried is referring to an anti-discrimination poster that would be placed in lunchrooms under the Title IX guidance. The guidance would ban “all forms of sex discrimination, including discrimination based on sex stereotypes, sex characteristics, pregnancy or related conditions, sexual orientation and gender identity.”

“Fried rejects ‘chauvinistic’ criticisms of Matt Gaetz association” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics — Fried asserted that criticisms of her long-standing association with Gaetz are “chauvinistic” critiques mired in sexist preconceptions. “My opponent & media calling me ‘friends’ with Matt Gaetz are purposely perpetuating a lie that women can’t work with men in politics professionally without owning all their baggage. It’s chauvinistic & part of the culture that’s prevented Florida from electing a woman Governor,” Fried contended. Fried has spent much of the last year and a half battling the narrative that she and Gaetz, a hard-right Congressman from the Panhandle, are friends. Her Tweet Friday suggests she still believes she has work to do in that regard.

“Is FPL the next Big Tobacco? AG candidate Daniel Uhlfelder pledges to investigate.” via Andy Marlette of the Pensacola News Journal — Attorney General candidate Uhlfelder is pledging to take on power-giant FPL if elected. The pledge comes in response to recent scandals from the state’s largest utility company, including allegations of consumer abuse. One such scandal includes a recent investigation that found FPL was funding and operating a phony Tallahassee news website, The Capitolist, which published pro-FPL articles and pieces that attacked FPL’s political opponents. Uhlfelder described FPL’s actions as “un-American.” “Why does a power company need to create its own media service? That’s called propaganda,” Uhlfelder said.

— 2022: CONG —

“Central Florida congressional candidates address soaring rents, drug advertising” via Scott Powers of Florida Politics — Just over two dozen Central Florida Congressional candidates met for a forum last week to discuss ideas and platforms, including some unique talking points. CD 10 Democrat Alan Grayson called for tax cuts. CD 7 Republican Ted Edwards backed universal background checks for gun purchases. He also blamed soaring rents in Orlando on undocumented immigrants pouring into America from the southern border. The forum featured responses to questions from 27 candidates across Florida’s 7th, 9th and 10th Congressional Districts, set into two discussion groups.

Of course, he did — “Anthony Sabatini headlined a nationalist convention in Tampa” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — Sabatini spoke Friday at a Tampa gathering of nationalists. “God bless the nationalist-populist movement,” he said during his remarks. At the American Virtue conference, Sabatini trashed Republican Party leaders like House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy as “woke.” He also advocated for a complete moratorium on all immigration and eliminating Juneteenth as a federal holiday. “Our policies should always focus on helping the people that are already here,” he said.

To view highlights of Sabatini’s speech, click on the image below:

Assignment editors — CD 10 candidate Maxwell Alejandro Frost joins Congressional Labor Caucus Co-Chair Mark Pocan and local labor leaders for a news conference to announce the AFL-CIO’s endorsement, 11:30 a.m., Communications Workers of America Local 3108 Union Hall, 2220 Edgewater Dr., Orlando.

“Jerry Torres appeals ruling booting him from race for Florida’s 14th Congressional District” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — After a Leon Circuit Judge disqualified Republican Torres from the ballot, he set on to appeal the ruling, hoping to take Florida’s 14th Congressional District. Judge John Cooper ruled in favor of the Florida Democratic Party and others who sued and argued Torres should be disqualified for having qualification papers notarized when he wasn’t present. That leaves James Judge as the only well-resourced Republican left in the race. Judge repeatedly called on Torres to resign amid allegations, and later praised the verdict. Torres had committed to spending as much as $15 million in hopes of unseating longtime Democratic U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor.

“Survey finds Annette Taddeo within striking distance of María Elvira Salazar in CD 27” via Ryan Nicol of Florida Politics — A survey from the Floridians for Economic Advancement found state Sen. Taddeo within the margin of error of incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Salazar in what’s expected to be a wave year for the GOP. The survey of likely General Election voters found that 39% supported Salazar, 34% backed Taddeo, and 27% were unsure ahead of the November election. The survey’s margin of error of 4.68 percentage points applies to each candidate’s vote share, meaning Taddeo is within striking distance. Taddeo ditched her gubernatorial bid earlier this year for a chance to take on Salazar in Florida’s 27th Congressional District, based in Miami-Dade County.

— MORE 2022 —

“Barbara Sharief sues Lauren Book for libel over campaign ads in hostile state Senate race” via Bianca Padro and Aaron Leibowitz of the Miami Herald — Former Broward County Commissioner Sharief is suing her state Senate opponent, Sen. Book, for libel. In a lawsuit filed Friday, Sharief seeks over $1 million in damages over what she says are libelous campaign ads. One such ad claims Sharief “defrauded Medicaid,” a reference to her home health care company paying nearly $700,000 in settlements about a decade ago — Sharief did not admit guilt as part of the settlements. But a spokesperson for Book’s campaign has said the suit is “nonsense” and that the Book campaign may file a countersuit.

—“Jason Brodeur faces political newcomer in Senate District 10 GOP Primary” via the Orlando Sentinel

“Jimmy Patronis endorses Carolina Amesty in HD 45” via Scott Powers of Florida Politics — CFO Patronis endorsed Amesty in the rough-and-tumble Republican Primary for HD 45. Patronis’ nod is the first Cabinet-level endorsement in the five-candidate GOP Primary. The endorsement might also further dim hopes for the other Republicans that they might secure the endorsement everyone in the Republican Primary Election covets, that of Gov. DeSantis. Earlier this week, her campaign announced an endorsement from former Education Commissioner Richard Corcoran. The district represents the Walt Disney World area, in southwestern Orange County and northeastern Osceola County.

“Republican candidates for House seat based in Clearwater: No, you’re a RINO!” via William March of the Tampa Bay Times — An argument over who’s the RINO (Republican in name only) is dominating the GOP Primary in the open, Clearwater-based District 58 state House seat. It’s between Kim Berfield, a former state House member from a family with deep Republican roots; and Jason Holloway, a former Democrat who says that party “left me” and his views on government changed as he matured and got to know DeSantis. Berfield is the daughter of a former judge and a longtime Republican legislative aide. She contends in mail and digital attacks and a Facebook page, Clearwater Conservatives, that Holloway’s past, including serving as a local Democratic Party official, renders him unfit.

“Republican returns $1,000 campaign donation from his family’s charity” via Kirby Wilson of the Tampa Bay Times — On June 30 of last year, Florida House candidate Adam Anderson got a $1,000 political contribution from a charitable foundation his family started that says all its proceeds go to fighting Tay-Sachs disease. More than a year later, his campaign returned it. “The AJ Anderson Foundation payment was an oversight by our treasurer and should not have been reported,” Anderson wrote in an email when asked about the donation, which was returned July 15.

“Direct mail round-up: Group slams ‘Fake’ Jake Hoffman for liberal spending habits and positions” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — A new mailer is encouraging voters in state House District 65 to confront Hoffman about past political positions. “If liberal ‘Fake’ Jake Hoffman knocks on your door,” the mailer suggests, “ask him these 4 questions.” A black-and-white photo of Hoffman superimposed over images of Biden and Nancy Pelosi tops a series of criticisms leveled at Hoffman throughout the campaign. Make America Florida PAC made the mailer. The first question goes after Hoffman’s heavy spending after receiving a Paycheck Protection Program loan.

“Copy-paste: Rhonda Rebman Lopez ad parrots Democrats’ attacks on Jim Mooney” via Peter Schorsch of Florida Politics — An attack ad paid for by Republican Lopez against opponent Rep. Mooney bears a striking resemblance to a previous ad funded by a political committee connected to a Democratic operative. The ad brands Mooney as a liberal, and is running on TV in House District 120. The ad uses the same stock art as the ad funded by the Democrat-run political committees, with the only visible difference being the aspect ratio. But Lopez has denied collaborating with Democratic operatives to get a leg up in the race.

— STATEWIDE —

“Teachers race to remake lessons as DeSantis laws take effect” via Lori Rozsa of The Washington Post — The first day of school in Florida is less than two weeks away, but officials are still plagued by confusion and uncertainty about what a raft of new laws championed by DeSantis will mean. The measures, aimed at ending what DeSantis calls “woke ideology” in public schools, have parents, teachers, and students scrambling to figure out how to follow them and keep from being targeted by Floridians newly empowered to sue school boards.

“Economist warns ‘growth recession’ could keep Medicaid enrollment high via Christine Jordan Sexton of Florida Politics — State Medicaid officials have anticipated hundreds of thousands of people can be dis-enrolled from Medicaid when the COVID-19 public health emergency expires. But Office of Economic and Demographic Research director Amy Baker said Friday there is the potential for a “growth recession,” or a prolonged period of significantly below trend real gross domestic product growth. That means Florida may not be able to disenroll as many people as quickly as previously thought. Economists had previously projected Florida’s Medicaid enrollment would climb to nearly 5.1 million people by June 30, 2023. Assuming the public health emergency would expire this summer, economists agreed enrollment would plummet to 4.89 million people by June 30, 2024, and 4.8 million people by June 2025. Now, they’re updating those projections.

“State economists raise interest rate projections for school construction bonds” via Gray Rohrer of Florida Politics — State economists raised their estimates of interest rates on Public Education Capital Outlay (PECO) bonds through 2029, reflecting the national economic environment. For the 2024 fiscal year, PECO bond interest rates are projected to be 4%, up from the 3.5% estimate economists forecast in December. That is projected to rise to 4.25% in 2025 and remain at that rate through at least 2029. But, since Rick Scott became Governor in 2011, the Legislature opted not to use bonds to pay for PECO projects, except for 2016, when it used $275 million in bonds.

“Erin Knight reappointed to Citizens Property Insurance board” via Gray Rohrer of Florida Politics — Erin Knight will remain on the Citizens Property Insurance Corporation’s Board of Governors after Gov. DeSantis reappointed her for a full four-year term. Knight, of Coral Gables, was first appointed in May 2021. She is president of Monument Capital Management and serves on the executive leadership team of A-Rod Corp., a venture capital investment firm led by MLB Hall-of-Famer Alex Rodriguez. Knight is one of three DeSantis appointees to the nine-member Citizens board.

— D.C. MATTERS —

“Joe Biden’s success story” via Axios — Biden has slowly but substantially re-engineered significant parts of the American economy, achievements obscured by COVID-19, inflation, and broad disenchantment. Love it or hate it, piece by piece, Biden has pumped billions into infrastructure projects, helped revive the domestic semiconductor industry, and accelerated U.S. viral research and vaccine production capabilities. He might be on the cusp of the biggest domestic clean-energy plan in U.S. history. Biden hasn’t done a dazzling job explaining this to the public. And it’s possible no amount of explaining can excite people when prices are soaring, and viruses are spreading.

“Biden tests positive for COVID-19 for second day in a row” via Josh Boak of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel — Biden tested positive for COVID-19 for the second straight day, in what appears to be a rare case of “rebound” following treatment with an antiviral drug. In a letter noting the positive test, Dr. Kevin O’Connor, the White House physician, said Sunday that the President “continues to feel well” and will keep on working from the executive residence while isolating. Biden tested positive Saturday, requiring him to cancel travel and in-person events as he isolates for at least five days by CDC guidelines.

“’The fact I have eyes’ led Matt Gaetz to insult female abortion rights activists” via Tom McLaughlin of the Northwest Florida Daily News — In the days since Gaetz made disparaging comments about a 19-year-old abortion rights protester, calling her “just disgusting,” the protester has garnered national recognition. Olivia Julianna — using her first and middle names for privacy reasons — has been circulated in several national publications. Julianna confronted Gaetz on Twitter, and within a day of their encounter, using her national platform, she raised $1 million for Gen Z for Change, a group that supports abortion rights. Julianna wrote Gaetz a thank-you note, having used his insult to fundraise for the nonprofit.

“Ethics committee finds no intentional violations by John Rutherford in disclosure of stock trades” via David Bauerlein of the Florida Times-Union — The House Committee on Ethics has dismissed allegations against U.S. Rep. John Rutherford regarding disclosure of stock trades. The committee found “no clear evidence” of any intentional attempt to skirt the House member reporting requirements. The ethics committee did not publicly announce it dismissed the referral against Rutherford, as it does not make public announcements on a representative who is within 60 days of an election. Rutherford will be on the Aug. 23 ballot for the Republican Party Primary.

“Darren Soto bill would cut red tape for rocket companies to get radio frequencies” via Scott Powers of Florida Politics — U.S. Rep. Darren Soto has announced a bill that would reserve certain bandwidths for commercial space companies to communicate with rockets during launch and return. The “Leveraging American Understanding of Next-Generation Challenges Exploring Space (LAUNCHES) Act” has drawn support from the space industry, which has grown to launch several rockets a month. If enacted, the bill is expected to significantly cut the approvals and time needed for a commercial space company to obtain Federal Communication Commission (FCC) licenses for secured launch or vehicle landing frequencies.

“Disney among studios to sign open letter supporting passage of the Respect for Marriage Act” via Abbey White of The Hollywood Reporter — The Walt Disney Co. has joined a handful of Hollywood studios in signing an open letter in support of codifying LGBTQ marriage rights into federal law. Disney signed the letter after garnering national attention earlier this year over its response to Florida’s Parental Rights in Education legislation, dubbed by critics the “don’t say gay” bill. The letter, spearheaded by the Human Rights Campaign, has 173 signatories representing over 5 million employees.

“Bill restricting Big Cat ownership, made famous by ‘Tiger King,’ passes House” via Emily Brooks of The Hill — A bill to restrict private ownership of big cats like lions, tigers and leopards as pets and for breeding passed the House on Thursday, marking a victory for animal welfare activists and Carole Baskin of the “Tiger King” Netflix show. The House passed the bill 278-134, with all votes against being Republican and 63 Republicans joining with Democrats to vote in favor. It now heads to the Senate, where bill advocates believe it has a shot of passing by unanimous consent. The White House on Tuesday issued a formal statement of support for the bill, showing that Biden will sign it into law if it comes to his desk.

— JAN. 6 —

“As Jan. 6 probe expands, officials worry DOJ resources are at a breaking point” via Ryan J. Reilly of NBC News — The probe into Jan. 6 has become the “most wide-ranging investigation” in the history of the U.S. Justice Department — and officials are worried about the logistics as it continues. More than a dozen sources familiar with the investigation have expressed concern that the already stretched investigation is nearing a breaking point. Although hundreds of ready-made cases are in the hands of federal law enforcement officials, the pace of arrests has slowed. The Department even asked Congress for a funding boost to manage the investigation, which was denied. However, Garland maintains he’s “confident” that the Justice Department could handle the workload regardless of the budget.

“2016 campaign looms large as Justice Dept. pursues inquiry” via Glenn Thrush, Adam Goldman and Katie Benner of The New York Times — The methodical approach Attorney General Merrick Garland has taken on the current Jan. 6 investigation has led prosecutors to hone in on Trump’s inner circle. Garland, acutely aware of how any misstep would be amplified and used for political purposes, has approached the investigation in a “crimes, not people” manner, slowly but surely leading them to question Trump’s involvement more directly.

“The RNC ‘election integrity’ official appearing in DOJ’s Jan. 6 subpoenas” via Betsy Woodruff Swan of POLITICO — In addition to a group of Trump’s top lawyers, the Justice Department’s Jan. 6 probe is also seeking communications to and from a Republican National Committee staffer in a sensitive role. At least three witnesses in the DOJ’s investigation of so-called alternate electors in the 2020 election, two in Arizona and another in Georgia, have received subpoenas demanding communications to and from Joshua Findlay, who is now the RNC’s national director for election integrity.

“Hot mic captured Gaetz assuring Roger Stone of pardon, discussing Robert Mueller redactions” via Jon Swaine and Dalton Bennett of The Washington Post — As Stone prepared to stand trial in 2019, complaining he was under pressure from federal prosecutors to incriminate Trump, a close ally of the President repeatedly assured Stone that “the boss” would likely grant him clemency if he were convicted, a recording shows. At an event at a Trump property that October, Rep. Gaetz predicted that Stone would be found guilty at his trial in Washington the following month but would not “do a day” in prison. Gaetz was apparently unaware documentary filmmakers were recording them following Stone, whom Mueller had charged with obstruction of a congressional investigation.

To listen to the clip, click on the image below:

— EPILOGUE TRUMP —

“Fox News, once home to Trump, now often ignores him” via Jeremy W. Peters of The New York Times — It’s been more than 100 days since Fox News has hosted Trump. The network, which rose to prominence alongside Trump’s ascension to the White House, is now often bypassing him in favor of showcasing other Republicans — including Gov. DeSantis. Fox has given DeSantis much-coveted airtime, including two prime-time interviews within five days. And it’s not just interviews. When Trump spoke to a gathering of conservatives in Washington this week, Fox did not air the speech live, instead just showing a selection of clips. The network effectively displaces him from his favorite spot: the center of the news cycle.

— MORE LOCAL: S. FL —

“Parkland trial a rare, curtailed look at mass shooting gore” via The Associated Press — Few Americans outside law enforcement and government ever see the most graphic videos or photos from the nation’s worst mass shootings; in most states, such evidence is only displayed at trial and most such killers die during or immediately after their attacks. They never make it to court. That has made the penalty trial of Florida school shooter Nikolas Cruz unusual. The surveillance videos taken during his attack and the crime scene and autopsy photos that show its horrific aftermath are being seen by jurors on shielded video screens and, after each day’s court session, shown to a small group of journalists. But they are not shown in the gallery, where parents and spouses sit, or to the general public watching TV.

“Despite DeSantis, it’s business as usual at R House drag brunch. Just a little less skin” via Alex Harris of the Miami Herald — It was business as usual for the performers and the clients, with a few subtle nods to the state’s threat to shut down the iconic drag spot over a viral video showing a provocatively dressed R House drag performer holding hands with a young girl wearing a tiara. The state’s complaint, filed Wednesday, said drag performances in front of children “corrupts the public morals and outrages the sense of public decency.” DeSantis called the presence of kids at the restaurant’s daytime drag shows “a disturbing trend” that leads to “the sexualization of children.”

Tweet, tweet:

These images are from R House Wynwood's "family friendly" drag brunch. pic.twitter.com/xABikYZu0l

— Lindsay (@LindsayGarcia86) July 31, 2022

“More than $600K in campaign spending hitting agricultural area in PBC Commission race” via Anne Geggis of Florida Politics — Democratic state Rep. Matt Willhite dished out a whopping $412,309 between June 1 and July 15 as he seeks a seat on the Palm Beach County Commission. That’s between his personal campaign and his committee, Floridians for Public Safety. His chief rival, Michelle Oyola McGovern, a longtime U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson staffer, spent $215,300 in the same period between her personal campaign and the committee she shares with her husband, Team McGovern. The two, who will meet in the Aug. 23 Democratic Primary, have been in a barnburner of a Primary money race. They have traded the lead in fundraising several times throughout the election cycle.

“With Perla Tabares Hantman out of the running, three candidates vie for school board seat” via Sommer Brugal of the Miami Herald — Longtime Miami-Dade School Board member Perla Tabares Hantman announced in April she wouldn’t seek re-election, just 26 days after filing paperwork to run again. Three candidates — a businessman with ties to DeSantis, the former president of the League of Women Voters and a former district teacher — are running to succeed her. Roberto Alonso, who DeSantis has endorsed, has honed in on the recent politicization of schools, rallying against schools becoming “centers for indoctrination.” Maribel Balbin decided to run to provide voters a choice, saying “politics shouldn’t be involved in the education of our children.” Kevin Menendez Macki, who Miami Lakes Mayor Manny Cid has endorsed, is the only educator among the batch, and has called political influences in schools today “unprecedented.”

“Voters grow angry as polling places are moved out of gated communities” via Lisa J. Huriash of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel — Some residents who’ve enjoyed voting in person inside their gated communities will now have to travel to cast their ballots. One of those communities, right within Sunrise Lakes Phase IV’s gated community has since been moved about a mile away, infuriating the people who live there. “It’s a senior community and there are a lot of people who can’t get around,” said resident Loretta Young. “They like to do their voting in person. If they have to get transportation someplace, I can’t think how they’ll do it.” The community bus takes people to the supermarket, she said, but there is nothing set up to go vote. “I know they do enjoy voting; it’s like an event for them,” Young said.

“15 stranded Cuban migrants in the Florida Keys rescued, taken into custody, Border Patrol says” via Devoun Cetoute of the Miami Herald — Another group of migrants landed on the shores of the Florida Keys Saturday morning, and the 15 travelers were taken into custody, authorities said. Aboard a rustic vessel, the Cuban migrants made landfall in the Marquesas Keys, an uninhabited island west of Key West, the U.S. Coast Guard Chief Patrol Agent Walter N. Slosar tweeted. Slosar said the group became stranded and needed to be rescued by U.S. Customs and Border Protection.

— MORE LOCAL: C. FL —

“FBI investigating Russian interference possibly linked to St. Petersburg Uhuru Movement” via Dan Sullivan, Mary Claire Molloy and Natalie Weber via The Tampa Bay Times — Federal law enforcement officials are investigating members of the Uhuru Movement in St. Petersburg for alleged connections to a Russian government official. Prosecutors believe the Russian agent directed U.S. political groups to sow division, spread pro-Russian propaganda and interfere in U.S. elections. Omali Yeshitela, leader of the St. Pete Uhuru Movement, denied taking money from the Russians, though he acknowledged he had visited Russia.

“Accusations fly in Hillsborough County judicial race” via William March of the Tampa Bay Times — A contentious circuit judgeship race in Hillsborough County violates the norms of usually quiet judicial contests, as the two candidates and their supporters bash each other publicly and file or threaten ethics complaints. The bitterness stems from an overturned decision by Judge Jared Smith in a case of a minor seeking an abortion. Smith, a deacon at politically conservative Idlewild Baptist Church, has injected a religious tone into his re-election campaign, including what supporters of his challenger, Nancy Jacobs, who is Jewish, call antisemitism.

“Four Republicans face off in District 4 County Commission Primary marked by controversies” via Ralph Chapoco of Florida Today — Of all the races in Brevard County during the 2022 elections season, one of the most contentious has been the contest for the District 4 Brevard County Commission seat being vacated by Curt Smith, who is terming out after eight years in office. Four Republican candidates, two men and two women, are vying for a chance to face write-in candidate Joseph Aiello in the Nov. 8 general election. In reality, the winner of the Aug. 23 Primary will almost certainly be the next Commissioner.

“7 shot in downtown Orlando shooting, police say” via Natalia Jaramillo of the Orlando Sentinel — Seven people were shot in downtown Orlando early Sunday after a large fight broke out in the area of Wall Street Plaza and South Orange Avenue, Orlando Police said. Six victims were transported to Orlando Regional Medical Center, and another person went to AdventHealth on their own. All seven victims, however, are in stable condition, Orlando Police Chief Eric Smith said. Police are still searching for the person who shot into the crowd.

“Woman claims her finger was partially cut off on Universal ride” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics — A Manatee County woman says she lost part of a finger in an accident when she rode Universal’s King Kong ride last year after placing her hand on the metal bracing in front of her during the ride. Now, she’s filed a lawsuit against the park, seeking more than $100,000 in damages, citing her medical expenses totaling $89,225. But Universal denied many of the lawsuit’s allegations, saying that the “Plaintiff’s injury was solely the result of her negligent failure to observe the subject condition.” And it’s not the first time a serious incident has been tied to the ride. In 2018, a family filed a wrongful-death lawsuit against Universal after a 38-year-old Guatemalan tourist with a prior heart condition died from a heart attack in 2016 after he sat down on a bench to rest shortly after getting off the Kong ride.

— MORE LOCAL: N. FLORIDA —

“9 may face voter fraud charges after investigation by Alachua County elections officials” via Javon L. Harris of The Gainesville Sun — More people are likely to be charged with voter fraud in Alachua County following an investigation by election officials. In a letter to the state attorney for the Eighth Judicial Circuit, Brian Kramer, Alachua County Supervisor of Elections Kim Barton says that nine people who are convicted sexual offenders voted illegally in the 2020 General Election. “This documentation clearly shows that these voters were not eligible to cast a ballot in the 2020 General Election under Florida Statute 98.0751 and should not have been registered to vote under the laws of the state of Florida and Amendment 4 due to their convictions of felony sexual offenses,” Barton wrote.

“In a hard-fought campaign, Jeremy Matlow and David Bellamy see different futures for Tallahassee” via Margie Menzel of WFSU — Tallahassee City Commissioner Jeremy Matlow sees the upcoming election as a check on one thing — will the city continue to be ruled by developers only concerned about their personal profits, or will it listen to the people and set policy that works for everyone? Matlow says voters are angry about paying $27 million in Blueprint money for repairs to Florida State University’s Doak Campbell Stadium. While Matlow’s challenger, Dr. David Bellamy, agrees it’s a crucial election, he has a different take. Bellamy, who spoke at a meet-and-greet with elected officials who support the money for Doak, does not believe Matlow’s accusations that specific organizations and city officials are too cozy with businesses that have city contracts. He calls himself a moderate.

“FPL, Tallahassee Mayor meeting: A ‘ginned up’ political attack or public utility threat?” via Karl Etters of the Tallahassee Democrat — At the same time, Florida Power & Light found itself caught in the glare of a media spotlight for meddling in elections and attempted takeovers of a municipal utility company, representatives of the energy empire met with Tallahassee Mayor John Dailey. Dailey described the meeting with FPL external affairs strategist Matt Mohler and Matt Valle, the president of FPL parent company NextEra Energy, as innocuous. He said it was a discussion with representatives of the state’s largest energy company and the Mayor of the country’s second biggest solar energy-producing municipality.

“Months after settlement, Jacksonville strip clubs sue City Hall over new dancer regulations” via Steve Patterson of The Florida Times-Union — Jacksonville strip club operators and dancers are suing the city again over licensing rules for dancers the city created this year to replace old rules a federal judge said were unconstitutional. A lawsuit filed last week argues an ordinance the City Council passed in April “continues to impose an unconstitutional prior restraint on protected speech” by giving the Sheriff’s Office too much leeway in deciding whether to issue identification cards that dancers need to work. “The ordinance allows the sheriff the unfettered discretion to deny a work identification card based on his subjective determination,” says the suit.

“Veteran, award-winning educator appointed to Columbia County School Board” via Scott Powers of Florida Politics — DeSantis appointed longtime award-winning educator Cherie Hill to an opening on the Columbia County School Board. Hill was an unopposed candidate for the vacant District 3 seat in the Aug. 23 election, so she will take the seat early and win it outright for a full term. According to her campaign video, Hill spent 19 years as a public-school teacher, a year as an assistant principal, 12 years as a principal and three more years as an assistant superintendent for the Columbia County School District.

— TOP OPINION —

“It’s not DeSantis’ business how we raise our children in Miami. Mind your own, sir” via Fabiola Santiago of the Miami Herald — Once again, DeSantis is using our children, and persecuting a business operation, to push his homophobic, fascist agenda. This time, it’s not a corporate giant like Disney World he’s looking to censor for standing with the LGBTQ+ community, but an eight-year-old Miami restaurant, the R House in Wynwood, which enjoys 5-star reviews on Google. In line with the autocrat he is, DeSantis has unleashed the Department of Business and Professional Regulation on the owners of the restaurant-bar over its popular, rambunctious Sunday brunch drag show.

— OPINIONS —

—“In the Democratic Primary for Florida Governor, Crist is the only choice” via the Miami Herald editorial board

“We are living in Richard Nixon’s America. Escaping it won’t be easy.” via Kevin Boyle of The New York Times — Not the America of Nixon’s last years, though there are dim echoes of it in the Jan. 6 hearings, but the nation he built before Watergate brought him down, where progressive possibilities would be choked off by law and order’s toxic politics and a Supreme Court he’d helped to shape. It’s tempting to talk about expanding the court or imposing age limits. But court reform has no plausible path through the Senate. Even if it did, the results might not be progressive: Republicans are as likely as Democrats to pack a court once they control Congress, and age limits wouldn’t affect some of the most conservative justices for at least another 13 years. The truth is the court will be remade as it always has been, a justice at a time.

“A crucial court case exposes the darkness of America’s worst industry” via David French of The Dispatch — The case is Serena Fleites v. MindGeek, and a federal district judge named Cormac Carney wrote an opinion that should send a shudder throughout the entire pornography industry. Fleites sued MindGeek, the company that owns Pornhub.com, one of the world’s most-visited websites (3.5 billion visits a month in 2019), and Visa, the company that enables Pornhub to monetize its content. Fleites’s story is horrifying. As recounted by the court, when she was 13 years old, her boyfriend pressured her into making a nude video. Without her knowledge or consent, he uploaded it to Pornhub, where it was posted under the title, “13-Year-Old Brunette Shows off For the Camera.” MindGeek not only hosted the video, but it also transferred that same video to other websites it owned.

“Biden’s wind turbine proposal would be bad for Eglin” via Matt Gaetz for the Pensacola News Journal — Biden is offering our nation’s military readiness as a form of payment to the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. In his latest prostration to the progressives, Biden has directed the development of wind energy leasing in the waters off Florida’s Gulf Coast, home to Florida’s beloved Eastern Gulf Test and Training Range. This is detrimental to military readiness, national security and Florida’s military mission. What’s even more worrisome, it may be intentional. The 96th Test Wing on Eglin Air Force Base oversees the expenditure of thousands of bombs and missiles annually on the range.

“Rule allowing the fishery for juvenile goliath grouper must be reversed” via Christopher Koenig and Felicia Coleman of the Tallahassee Democrat — Why is it that the Florida Fish & Wildlife Conservation Commission is made up of contractors and developers rather than scientists? Perhaps because the Governors seek appointees who will help push forward their political objectives rather than focus on the science, Koenig and Coleman write. Such was the case when Commissioners approved the fishery for juvenile goliath grouper — a species that has been protected since 1990 and still is vulnerable to extinction — back in March. The new rule allows killing 200 juvenile goliaths a year, despite extensive input from ecologists and conservationists warning against it. This goes beyond protection for the goliath grouper — it shows how these uninformed policy decisions can affect the thousands of ecologically and economically important species across the state.

— INSTAGRAM OF THE DAY —

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— ALOE —

“How did lobster miniseason go in the Florida Keys? Police were busy; two tourists died” via Gwen Filosa of the Miami Herald — How’d you do during Florida’s 48-hour lobster miniseason? Did you catch your legal limit? That would be six lobsters per person, per boat in the Florida Keys and Biscayne National Park in Miami-Dade County, while in the rest of the state the formula is a dozen lobsters. Between July 27-28, law enforcement was out in full force across the island chain, the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, the Monroe County Sheriff’s Office and the Coast Guard.

— HAPPY BIRTHDAY —

Happy birthday to former lawmakers Garrett Richter and Jennifer Sullivan, Mike Huey of GrayRobinson, Ashley Kalifeh of Capital City Consulting, Chef Brian Knepper, Kartik Krishnaiyer, Dan Nordby, Brian Shuford and Karen Unger.

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Sunburn is authored and assembled by Peter Schorsch, Phil Ammann, Daniel Dean, Renzo Downey, Jacob Ogles, and Drew Wilson.