Peter Schorsch
Good Monday morning — Happy Election Eve!
🙏🙏🙏
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Bo Rivard is joining the Rubin Turnbull & Associates lobbying team.
Rivard brings an impressive background and deep industry expertise to his new role, where he will collaborate with some of the field’s most respected professionals.
His career includes key roles in successful political campaigns and extensive work with government and business leaders on public policy. Notably, Rivard served as Chair of both the Citizens Property Insurance Corp. Board of Governors and the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission and served on the Executive Committee of the Republican Party of Florida.
Rivard is a Panama City native who lives there with his wife, Nicole, and their three children. He earned his bachelor’s degree from the University of Florida and his law degree from Samford University’s Cumberland School of Law. In addition to his new role at Rubin Turnbull, Rivard will continue his legal practice as a partner at Harrison Rivard & Duncan, a prominent full-service law firm in Panama City.
Sen. Jay Trumbull said, “Brittany and I are thrilled that our close friend, neighbor and adviser, Bo Rivard, is joining the exceptional lobbying team at Rubin, Turnbull. The Rivards are like family to us, and we’re so pleased to see Bo team up with our dear friends, Bill and Heather.”
CFO Jimmy Patronis added, “Congratulations to my lifelong friend, Bo Rivard, on joining my friends Bill and Heather at Rubin Turnbull & Associates. Bo’s leadership, integrity, and dedication have always set him apart, which is why I trusted him to guide Citizens Property Insurance as Chair during a pivotal time. I’m confident Bo will bring the same qualities to Rubin Turnbull, and I look forward to witnessing the impact he’ll make alongside their outstanding team.”
— SITUATIONAL AWARENESS —
Tweet, tweet:
Tweet, tweet:
—@RealDonaldTrump: No President has done more for FARMERS, and the Great State of Iowa, than Donald J. Trump. In fact, it’s not even close! All polls, except for one heavily skewed toward the Democrats by a Trump hater who called it totally wrong the last time, have me up BY A LOT. I LOVE THE FARMERS, AND THEY LOVE ME. THE JUST-OUT EMERSON POLL HAS ME UP 10 POINTS IN IOWA. THANK YOU!
—@JMart: The (Ann) Selzer story is not, necessarily, a (Kamala) Harris lead in Iowa. It is Harris leading by 20 points among women in a heavily white, Midwestern state.
—@CommanderZeta: I am not a statistics quant, but I find it interesting that the only pollster who sees something different in the data is a woman who has a much better predictive record than most of the men spinning cross tabs every which way they can to say it’s a toss-up.
—@RobertKennedyJr: On Jan. 20, the Trump White House will advise all U.S. water systems to remove fluoride from public water. Fluoride is an industrial waste associated with arthritis, bone fractures, bone cancer, IQ loss, neurodevelopmental disorders and thyroid disease. President @realDonaldTrump and First Lady @MELANIATRUMP want to Make America Healthy Again.
—@Redistrict: Trump had one job in the final days: talk about the economy/border and tie Harris to (Joe) Biden. And we’re really talking about Puerto Rico and water fluoridation?
—@MarcShort: This election, we abandoned our position on life, abandoned our position on marriage, abandoned our position in support of free markets and free trade, abandoned our national security positions, and now we’re the biggest defenders of government-run health care. If we’re unsuccessful Tuesday, it’s time for a serious reckoning within our party.
Tweet, tweet:
—@ReneeLibby95084: When I was on line to vote yesterday in North Carolina, there was a poll worker making an announcement that ” Only one person is allowed in the booth and husbands and wives MAY NOT go in together.” Wow. (This is 2024, right?) And God Bless you, Sir.
Tweet, tweet:
—@RyanPDuffy:@fsuzeigler is such a tremendous asset to FSU. I was fortunate to have him both as a professor and Director of the London Study Center when I studied abroad. We will get through this season and through leaders like him with our integrity intact.
Tweet, tweet:
— DAYS UNTIL —
2024 Presidential Election – 1; second half of Yellowstone season five premieres – 2; USF stadium groundbreaking — 5; Taylor Sheridan’s ‘Landman’ premieres – 11; ‘Dune: Prophecy’ premieres on HBO — 13; News Service of Florida’s Above & Beyond Awards, honoring women in government and public service — 15; Legislature’s 2025 Organizational Session – 17; Las Vegas Grand Prix – 17; ‘Wicked’ premieres — 18; ‘Moana 2’ premieres – 23; ‘Chef’s Table’ returns to Netflix — 23; 2024 Florida Chamber Annual Insurance Summit begins – 29; Florida Chamber 2024 Florida Transportation, Growth & Infrastructure Solution Summit — 29; MLS Cup 2024 – 33; Army-Navy game — 40; ‘Mufasa: The Lion King’ premieres – 46; College Football Playoff begins – 48; ‘Squid Game’ season two premieres – 52; Fiesta, Peach, Rose & Sugar Bowls – 58; Orange Bowl – 66; ‘Severance’ season two debuts – 81; Super Bowl LIX — 97; ‘Captain America: Brave New World’ premieres – 109; the 2025 Oscars – 118; Florida’s 2025 Legislative Session begins – 120; Tampa Bay Rays season opener — 143; 2025 Session ends – 179; ‘Thunderbolts’ premieres – 179; Epic Universe grand opening — 199; ‘Karate Kid: Legends’ premieres — 207; ‘Fantastic Four – First Steps’ premieres – 263; ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ premieres – 410; ‘Avengers 5’ premieres – 547; Untitled ‘Star Wars’ movie premieres – 564; FIFA World Cup 26™ final – 585; FIFA World Cup 26™ final match – 623; ‘The Batman 2’ premieres – 702; Another untitled ‘Star Wars’ movie premieres – 775; ‘Avengers: Secret Wars’ premieres – 915; 2028 Los Angeles Olympics Opening Ceremony — 1,348; ‘Avatar 4’ premieres – 1,874; ‘Avatar 5’ premieres – 2,595.
— TOP STORY —
“The Florida power broker behind Donald Trump’s chance at a second term” via Alex Leary and Kristina Peterson of The Wall Street Journal — Every time Trump boards his campaign plane, advisers and friends jockey to snag the prime seats near him. Susie Wiles isn’t one of them.
As perhaps the single most important person in Trump’s orbit, she doesn’t need to.
Whether the woman who delivered the state of Florida to Trump in both 2016 and 2020 — taking what was previously the biggest swing state off the map this year — can win her first national election will be answered sometime after Tuesday.
Among Wiles’ key contributions has been persuading Trump to urge Republicans to vote early and by mail, which he had previously discouraged.
“Susie understands how to operationalize the momentum that Trump creates,” said Rep. Matt Gaetz, a Florida Republican who has worked with Wiles for years. “If we’re headed to a close election in a few of these swing states, Susie’s worth an extra point or two at least.”
Still, there are limits to Wiles’s influence, as Trump’s rally at Madison Square Garden last weekend highlighted when a comic invited to speak likened Puerto Rico to an island of garbage. Trump himself makes frequent inflammatory comments, including saying Harris had only recently begun identifying as a Black woman and Thursday suggested sending Republican former Rep. Liz Cheney to the front lines of war with guns “trained on her face.”
Wiles said she isn’t counting on anything; she isn’t thinking about future jobs but thinks Trump will prevail over Harris on Tuesday. “If he does that, it is probably the biggest comeback in American history,” she said. “And I’ve certainly had a front-row seat for it.”
—”Inside the ruthless, restless final days of Trump’s campaign” via Tim Alberta of The Atlantic
— 2024 — PRESIDENTIAL —
—”Early voting turnout high as nearly 47% of 2020 electorate cast ballots” via Patrick Marley, Yvonne Wingett Sanchez, Joel Achenbach and Molly Hennessy-Fiske of The Washington Post
“Election stays close in a final weekend with a dispirited electorate” via Gary Langer of ABC News — Harris has 49% support among likely voters in this final-weekend ABC News/Ipsos poll, Trump 46%. Reflecting the country’s locked-in polarization, support for these candidates hasn’t changed significantly since Harris stepped in to replace Biden last Summer. Harris was +2 in early October, +4 (a slight edge) last week and is +3 in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates with fieldwork by Ipsos. That scant 3-point difference with Trump matches the average Democratic-Republican gap in the last eight presidential elections, of which Democrats won the popular vote in seven. Regardless, the result leaves a wide-open field for the vagaries of the Electoral College.
—“In surprise, Kamala Harris has slight lead over Trump in Iowa poll” via Praveena Somasundaram of The Washington Post
“Harris campaign launches closing ad” via Myah Ward of POLITICO — Just days before polls close, the campaign’s final two-minute spot shows clips of the Vice President’s personal interactions with voters. It then shows Harris speaking directly to the camera before weaving in audio from her stump speech — patriotic imagery appearing throughout the spot. The ad concludes with the Vice President speaking to the camera, asking for Americans’ votes. “Now, I’m asking for your vote because, as President, I will get up every day and fight for the American people,” she says.
To watch the ad, please click the image below:
—”Harris in ‘more competitive crouch’ in Georgia as election nears” via Megan Messerly of POLITICO
—”Harris delivers her closing pitch to North Carolina” via Brittany Gibson of POLITICO
“Trump gambles with late-stage trips to Democratic New Mexico and Virginia” via The Associated Press — Trump is traveling to New Mexico and Virginia in the campaign’s final days, taking a risky detour from the seven battleground states to spend time in places where Republican presidential candidates have not won in decades. The former President campaigned in Albuquerque, New Mexico, on Thursday and was scheduled to visit Salem, Virginia, on Saturday. The Trump team is projecting optimism based partly on early voting numbers and thinks he can be competitive against Harris in both states — New Mexico in particular, if he sweeps swing states Nevada and Arizona. That hope comes even though neither New Mexico nor Virginia has been carried by a GOP nominee for the White House since George W. Bush in 2004.
—“‘We can’t take a chance’: Trump barnstorms North Carolina in the final stretch” via Natalie Allison of POLITICO
—“Trump set to visit blue-leaning Virginia” via Meredith McGraw of POLITICO
“Trump laughs as supporter yells that Harris ‘worked on the corner’” via The New York Times — As Election Day approaches, South Floridians are praying for their preferred outcome, struggling to eat and sleep, consumed with dread and even fearful of violence. Regardless of their political persuasions, many feel more is on the line than ever, including their health, livelihoods, safety and the future of democracy. Their anxiety over the Presidential Election is compounded by the constitutional amendments over significant issues such as the legalization of recreational marijuana and, in particular, abortion access. Bethany Sharp says she prays more often as her stress level rises. The Jupiter mother of two says she fears a world war could be in the nation’s future, depending on the Presidential Election’s outcome. On Election Night, she plans to go without sleep to watch the voting results, hoping for a Trump victory.
“Robert F. Kennedy Jr. recommends fellow vaccine skeptic, Joe Ladapo, to Trump for HHS Secretary” via Jonathan Karl, Will Steakin and Katherine Faulders of ABC News — Kennedy, who recently sparked controversy with claims that Trump has promised him “control” of public health agencies if the former President regains the presidency, has been privately advising the Trump transition team on prospects for Cabinet positions — including recommending a fellow vaccine skeptic to lead the federal agency responsible for public health protection, according to sources. Multiple sources told ABC News that Kennedy, who has spent years fueling mistrust around safe vaccines, has recommended Florida Surgeon General Ladapo to Trump’s transition team as a candidate for the Secretary of Health and Human Services position. Sources close to Trump’s transition operation say the recommendation is being taken seriously.
“Mark Cuban shows Democrats what they’ve been missing” via Victoria Guida of POLITICO — According to Cuban, Harris appeals to “grinders.” “The people who put their lives on the line to make a dream come true,” he told me. “That want better for their families and [are] willing to work nonstop to get it.” “They are driven by the ‘Power of Broke,’” he added, referencing the book of his TV co-star Daymond John about how desperation breeds innovation. It’s an instructive snapshot of why the Harris campaign has leaned into having the mischievous billionaire as a spokesperson: Cuban has both investor know-how and celebrity status that adds some pizzazz to her pitch for an “Opportunity Economy,” targeted especially at would-be entrepreneurs. He’s campaigning on the ground, not just on mass-communication platforms like TV and social media. Just this past week, Cuban held economic town halls in purple Nevada and said he converted people to Harris’ side.
“Elon Musk’s pro-Trump PAC hired Ron DeSantis alums. Did he get what he paid for?” via The Associated Press — Musk is now leading America PAC, a political action committee spearheading Trump’s get-out-the-vote effort. As a newcomer to politics, there have been growing pains. Over the Summer, America PAC struggled to reach its voter contact goals. Musk brought in a new team of political consultants, Generra Peck and Phil Cox, who worked on DeSantis’ losing Republican Presidential Primary bid. On paper, the numbers have improved. But Republican officials, operatives, and activists say in some critical places, it’s been difficult to tell how active the PAC’s ground effort has been. The PAC’s presence is not perceptible in rural Georgia, according to three Republican strategists closely monitoring the ground game in the battleground state.
— 2024 — FLORIDA —
“Millions in Florida taxpayer cash fuel DeSantis’ ad war on pot, abortion amendments” via John Kennedy of USA Today Network-Florida — DeSantis is spending the election homestretch focused almost solely on two of the costliest ballot campaigns in the nation, throwing millions of dollars in taxpayer money and a flurry of questionable claims against legalizing marijuana and restoring abortion rights in Florida. Groups spending on Amendment 3, which would allow recreational marijuana and Amendment 4, expanding abortion access, have raised more than $225 million over the past two years, putting them at the top of more than 150 ballot proposals going before American voters on Nov. 5. TV, radio and digital platforms are ablaze in advertising in the campaign’s closing hours. The Governor and First Lady Casey DeSantis are central players in the campaign endgame.
“This Democrat could challenge DeSantis’ campaign against abortion, pot amendments” via Lawrence Mower of the Tampa Bay Times — DeSantis’ use of state resources to campaign against two constitutional amendments has prompted a flurry of lawsuits, rebukes from politicians on both sides of the aisle and at least one state official’s abrupt resignation. One of the few people who haven’t weighed in is a key Democrat in Florida’s capital city. As the State Attorney in Leon County, the seat of Florida government where billions in taxpayer dollars are assigned each year, Jack Campbell can prosecute crimes against state officials. Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried filed a criminal complaint with Campbell’s office in Sept.
“How Florida’s fight over abortion rights became an all-out war against the state” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics — DeSantis and state officials have tried to quash abortion rights nearly every step of the way and blurred the lines by using their official power to fight against the citizen-led Amendment 4 ballot initiative. Amendment 4, which seeks to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution, will be decided in Tuesday’s election. The ballot initiative comes after Florida lawmakers passed an abortion ban at six weeks for most pregnancies that went into effect in May. DeSantis’ anti-abortion rights supporters praise him for doing everything he can to fight for unborn children.
“State leaders are fighting against abortion rights in Florida and across the country” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics — Florida is among 10 states deciding abortion initiatives in Tuesday’s election, an unprecedented event following the end of Roe v. Wade. The votes are happening in battleground states, like Arizona and Nevada; blue states, like New York; and red states, including Nebraska and South Dakota. Abortion is also on the ballot in Colorado, Maryland, Missouri and Montana. Most of the initiatives, including Florida’s, would amend the state constitution to allow abortion until fetal viability, which is generally considered about 24 weeks, or later in instances to save the mother’s life. But Florida’s Amendment 4 stands out because of the challenges it faces, said Chris Melody Fields Figueredo.
Sens. Rick Scott, Marco Rubio and former Energy Secretary Rick Perry campaign in South Florida — Scott hit the campaign trail in Broward and Miami-Dade counties, joined by his wife Ann, Rubio, and former Texas Governor and U.S. Secretary of Energy Perry, to encourage Floridians to get out and vote. “Sen. Scott is relentless in the fight for his state and country,” Perry said Saturday. “He was able to completely turn around Florida’s economy when he was Governor, and he’s fighting every day in Washington to turn this country around. I know he will never stop until every person in this country has the chance at the American dream — and I’m proud to be here today supporting my friend.”
“Nausea, nightmares, insomnia: Election angst hitting hard in Florida” via Cindy Krischer Goodman and Shira Moolten of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel — Nearly five months pregnant, Vanessa is just beginning to show. But a time of excitement and celebration has instead become one of rage, sadness and anxiety for the 39-year-old from Miami, who fears her health care could be affected by the outcome of Florida’s abortion amendment and the Presidential Election. “My life is literally in their hands, and that makes me so angry,” she said. “Because never has any other person’s life been in their hands like that, not at this level, when we’re talking about health care.” Vanessa asked if her last name not be used as she had not announced her pregnancy.
— 2024 — MORE FLORIDA —
Happening today — Smart & Safe Florida virtual Veterans for Amendment 3 event — Smart & Safe Florida will host a Veterans for Amendment 3 virtual news conference to highlight how access to safe, lab-tested marijuana products benefits veterans and how Amendment 3 will ultimately benefit all Floridians: 11:30 a.m., Zoom registration here.
“Nonpartisan ‘good government’ group urges voters to kill Amendment 6, keep public campaign funding intact” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — Florida’s Amendment 3 on cannabis and Amendment 4 on abortion have understandably taken up a lot of attention this election cycle. But a state nonpartisan group is highlighting another proposal on the General Election deserving of voters’ attention — and rejection: Amendment 6. If passed, Amendment 6 would repeal Article VI, Section 7 of the Florida Constitution, which requires the state to have a public financing program for Governor and Cabinet candidates who agree to spending limits. The program is meant to incentivize old-fashioned campaign fundraising and candidate-voter engagement by providing matching dollars for donations made by individual Florida residents of $250 or less. To tap those funds, the candidates must agree to cap their spending, personal campaign loans and contributions from political parties.
Environmental Defense Fund ad spotlights environmental concerns leading into Election Day — The 30-second spot from EDF has been running on TV to highlight the stakes of this election as Floridians prepare to cast their ballots. “Ninety percent of Floridians agree: The climate is changing,” the ad’s narrator begins. “Rising sea levels, temperatures and Florida’s overreliance on natural gas are creating financial pressures. Climate disasters in Florida have racked up over $100 billion in damages in the past five years. We need leadership to protect affordability and quality of life while addressing air and climate pollution. It’s time to put Floridians first. We can’t afford to wait.”
To view the ad, please click on the image below:
— 2024 — DOWN-BALLOT 1 —
“Can Gay Valimont defeat the eternally controversial Matt Gaetz in Florida’s reddest district?” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — Florida’s 1st Congressional District remains Florida’s most ruby red district, providing U.S. Rep. Gaetz a reliable voter base. But Democratic challenger Valimont said voters of all political stripes have reason to toss the four-term incumbent. Marred by controversy and scandal while frequently irritating even Republican leaders in the House, Valimont said it’s a matter of time before someone shows Gaetz the door out of the U.S. House. It may as well be his voters. “If he wins, watch for him to be expelled in November or December, sparking a Special Election,” Valimont said. “We are also prepared for that.”
“Aaron Bean seeking second term representing North Florida’s CD 4 in rematch against L.J. Holloway” via Drew Dixon of Florida Politics — The race for Florida’s 4th Congressional District seat sees a veteran politician seeking to retain his post against an underdog repeat challenger. U.S. Rep. Bean, a Republican from Fernandina Beach, is seeking re-election to the seat and is looking to dispatch Democrat Holloway. It’s the second straight cycle the two have faced off, with Bean defeating Holloway by 21 points in 2022. At least according to a recent poll, it’s expected to be a closer race this time. The University of North Florida survey showed Bean leading the race with 51% support. Holloway had 44% support, and she outpaced Bean among no-party voters.
“Cory Mills flipped CD 7 red. Can Democrat Jennifer Adams shift it back?” via Steven Lemongello of the Orlando Sentinel — In 2022, Democrats lost control of Florida’s 7th Congressional District after it was redrawn to include Republican-leaning Volusia County and leave out blue-leaning Orange County. That led to a win by GOP newcomer Mills, now serving his first term in the U.S. House. This year, Democratic challenger Adams says she can win there despite the GOP-friendly map and her opponent’s far bigger campaign fund. “We’ve got enough division in our country, and we’re supposed to have leaders who represent and work for us,” Adams said. Mills claims “he’s doing things for our community, but then he votes against funding FEMA. He is not here for Florida’s 7th District,” she said.
“Darren Soto seeks a fifth term, but must overcome self-funder Thomas Chalifoux’s cash advantage” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — Few people saw U.S. Rep. Soto as vulnerable to a challenge in 2022. Yet despite a lack of significant investment by Republicans, the Kissimmee Democrat returned to Washington with the narrowest margin of victory of any Florida congressional delegation member. That was in a Republican wave year (in Florida, at least). Democrats have long asserted that Republicans won’t match that performance in a Presidential Election year. However, former Osceola County School Board member Chalifoux is testing that theory as he challenges Soto with the backing of the National Republican Congressional Committee. “Under Darren Soto’s watch, inflation has battered our families, crime has surged, and our communities have been left vulnerable,” Chalifoux said.
“María Elvira Salazar’s foothold in Congress strengthened last cycle. Can Lucia Báez-Geller dislodge her?” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — In 2020, Salazar roared back from a decisive loss two years before unseating the Democratic incumbent in a rematch for Florida’s 27th Congressional District. She secured victory by a respectable 3 percentage points, flipping the long-red seat back to crimson. The next cycle, when Republicans overtook Democrats in Florida’s statewide voter rolls for the first time, she won by nearly five times that margin. Since then, Republicans have grown their advantage to more than 1 million voters. They’re still outnumbered in Miami-Dade County, which contains CD 27, but they’re getting close.
— 2024 — DOWN-BALLOT 2 —
“Jason Pizzo predicts college turnout could decide critical SD 3 race” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — Sen. Pizzo is set to lead the Senate Democratic caucus. But voters on Tuesday will determine how many Senators are in that group. At a Florida TaxWatch event in Palm Beach, Pizzo said he would closely watch results for Senate District 3. That’s where Democrat Daryl Parks will challenge Republican Sen. Corey Simon, who won his seat in 2022 and became the first Republican representing Tallahassee in decades. “I think it’s very close,” Pizzo acknowledged. “What I’m very encouraged to see are 18- to 25-year-olds voting at a much higher clip than they were in the last couple of elections. I don’t know if that’s Amendment 3 or 4 — maybe they have some interest in 5 and 6.”
“JJ Grow, Judith Vowels compete for open HD 23 seat” via Mike Wright of Florida Politics — Citrus County has rarely seen a significant focus on a Florida House race, and this year is no different. The House District 23 contest between Republican Grow and Democrat Vowels registered barely a blip on the county’s political scene. Each hope to follow Rep. Ralph Massullo, who cannot run again due to term limits. For two years, Grow has quietly eyed HD 23, composed of all of Citrus and the Dunnellon area of Marion County. An Inverness resident and agribusiness owner, Grow announced a run in 2022 on the belief that Massullo was going for Senate District 11. Massullo instead opted for a fourth and final term in the House.
“Kristen Arrington aims to keep SD 25 blue, but Jose Martinez says voters deserve a Spanish-speaking Senator” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — Rep. Arrington hopes voters promote her to the Senate on Nov. 5. But can political newcomer Martinez flip a Hispanic-majority seat red instead? Arrington and Martinez face each other in Senate District 25, with the winner set to succeed retiring Sen. Victor Torres, an Orlando Democrat. Torres first won election in a slightly differently shaped district in 2016, running up 58% of the vote. But he won his last term in 2022 with less than 53% over Republican Peter Vivaldi. That left DeSantis openly wishing Republicans had made a stronger play for the Hispanic-performing seat, and Republicans have only grown a presence there since. But Democrats feel confident the Orange-Osceola seat remains blue.
“Tom Keen faces rematch with Erika Booth in hottest House race with Dems on defense” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — It’s been less than a year since Democratic Rep. Keen won his seat in the Legislature. Now, he must defend it against Republican Booth. The two have effectively campaigned for the House District 35 seat for a year since each won their respective Primaries last November. Keen went on to win a Special Election against Booth in January, flipping a Republican seat blue in one of Florida Democrats’ biggest wins of the year. However, Keen said he has rarely crossed paths with the former Osceola County School Board member, despite his willingness to attend debates and forums himself. “It’s crickets over there,” he said.
“Can Rachel Plakon hold onto a district that voted for Joe Biden or will Democrat Kelley Diona Miller unseat her?” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — Republican Rep. Plakon secured her seat in the Legislature in 2022 despite Democrats holding a numbers edge. But can she keep House District 36 red this cycle against a challenge by Democrat Miller? The Lake Mary incumbent said she feels confident in the state of her campaign and her record in the Legislature. Fresh off a phone call with a potential swing voter, she felt hopeful she could win over as many voters as it takes. “We put forward a good campaign,” she said. “We’ve pushed back on inflation coming out of Washington, passed $3 billion in tax cuts, and are keeping Florida’s economy strong.”
“David Smith wants a fourth and final House term, but must get past Sarah Henry” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — Rep. Smith has raised more money than any Republican lawmaker seeking re-election this year. But he remains in one of the most closely watched House races in Florida: a rematch with Democrat Henry in House District 38. Heading into Tuesday, the Winter Springs Republicans said he feels optimistic. “We have reached enough voters,” Smith said. “I have been able to tell my story of my military service and combat experience in Iraq, about my legislative success passing 27 policy bills and securing 50 appropriation projects in the state budget for Central Florida, for fighting homelessness, funding our food banks, important things. That message resonates that I’m doing the hard work that needs to be done in Tallahassee.”
“Doug Bankson hopes to keep HD 39 red, defend it from a challenge by Marsha Summersill” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — Rep. Bankson jumped two years ago from an Apopka City Commission seat to the House. After both parties invested heavily in the House District 39 race, the Republican won by double digits as his party overperformed statewide. Can Summersill, a lawyer, take him out this November in a district where a bare majority of voters supported Biden in the last Presidential Election? The incumbent says he is competing down to the wire. “I’m in sprint mode now, going nonstop until Tuesday night,” he said. “We are feeling optimistic, but I’m not taking anything for granted and will be running through the finish line.” Summersill has hit the trail hard as well.
“Can Nate Douglas unseat Susan Plasencia two years after she upset the House’s most liberal lawmaker?” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — Among the GOP’s most surprising legislative wins in 2022 was Plasencia’s upset victory over progressive Rep. Carlos Guillermo Smith. But now the Republican incumbent faces a heavily funded challenge from Democrat Douglas for her House District 37 seat. The 23-year-old candidate has massively outraised Plasencia as Democrats seek to claw back the University of Central Florida (UCF)-centered district from Republican control. He sees the incumbent’s record on LGBTQ rights, the dismantling of higher education, and general inaccessibility to constituents as a dramatic failure. Unlike two years ago, Douglas said voters know what the incumbent stands for and why it should be rejected.
“Paula Stark squeaked into office in 2022. Will spending scandals open her to defeat by Maria Revelles?” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — One of the biggest surprises on Election Day in 2022 came when Republican Stark won the race in deep-blue House District 47. But Democrats foresee different results on Tuesday when they expect Democrat Revelles to take the seat back. “When I watched my district flip red while I was fighting cancer, I promised myself that if I won that battle, I would work to restore honest representation to this district,” Revelles said. “Today, I am proud to run for HD 47, with a coalition of community support, to bring back a Florida where we can all live with dignity and hope for a better tomorrow.
“Peggy Gossett-Seidman aims to fend off better-funded challenger Jay Shooster in HD 91” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — Two years after she flipped the long-blue seat representing House District 91 in Palm Beach County red, Rep. Gossett-Seidman faces Shooster, a better-funded Democratic challenger who aims to make her a one-term lawmaker. It could be a close contest. HD 91 covers a southern portion of Palm Beach County, including Boca Raton and parts of Highland Beach and West Boca. Previously a dependable Democratic stronghold, the district grew more conservative after redistricting in 2022. Gossett-Seidman, 71, won that year by 3.5 percentage points on a red wave that delivered the district to DeSantis by 9.2 points, according to MCI Maps.
“Katherine Waldron set for HD 93 showdown with challenger Anne Gerwig” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — Two years after winning the right to represent an inland swath of Palm Beach County in House District 93, Democratic Rep. Waldron faces a challenge from a well-known and well-funded GOP foe. Gerwig, the immediate past Mayor of Wellington, where Waldron lives, has been competitive in messaging, fundraising, and securing organizational endorsements. She’s still in an uphill battle. By the Division of Elections’ latest count, 37% of the voters in HD 93 are registered Democrats, while 31% are Republicans and 32% are third- or no-party voters. Waldron, 64, raised $311,000 this cycle, with about $72,000 in cash on hand heading into the race’s home stretch.
— 2024 — DOWN-BALLOT 3 —
“Provocateur Fabián Basabe faces mild-mannered Joe Saunders in HD 106 clash” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — It’s been a whirlwind two years for Republican state Rep. Basabe since he won the seat representing House District 106 by a razor-thin margin. However, much of the attention he’s gotten hasn’t been the positive kind. He now faces a challenge from Democrat Saunders, a mild-mannered former state lawmaker who hopes the incumbent’s legal troubles, ample bad press and meager legislative achievements motivate voters to flip the seat back to blue. It’s one of the most-watched Florida House races this cycle. To Basabe’s advantage are his deftness at retail politics, deep familiarity with the local electorate and its leaders, and the growing power of the Miami-Dade GOP.
“With allegations of influence peddling, candidate denying any wrongdoing and endorsement reversal, House District 113 race heats up” via Hillard Grossman of Islander News — Jackie Kellogg woke up Saturday morning feeling a little “validation” after a whirlwind two days, in which her state representative election opponent was being accused of using her political influence to benefit her son or the company that employs him. That investigative report, released Thursday, was followed the next day by an endorsement shift by the Miami Herald in favor of the longtime Key Biscayne resident. The controversy, if you will, stems from a report by the Jacksonville-based nonprofit news organization The Tributary, which raised potential ethical questions about state Rep. Vicki Lopez and her support of school bus camera laws. The Republican House District 113 incumbent from Brickell is facing a challenge from Kellogg in the Nov. 5 election. “The Tributary article is riddled with inaccuracies and innuendo, but there is really not much use in trying to correct it,” Lopez told Islander News on Tuesday. “They signaled weeks ago that this was going to be a hit piece, and true to their implication, that is exactly what it was.”
—“Vicki Lopez faces underdog challenger Jackie Gross-Kellogg in red-shifting HD 113” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics
— STATEWIDE —
“Justice Department dispatches election monitors to Florida, but state leaders say they can’t enter polling sites” via Skyler Swisher of the Orlando Sentinel — The U.S. Department of Justice will watch for voting rights violations in four Florida counties on Election Day — but their observers won’t be inside polling locations, election officials said Friday. The DOJ sends personnel to 86 areas in 27 states, including Broward, Miami-Dade, Orange and Osceola counties in Florida, to ensure compliance with civil rights laws. On Friday, Florida Secretary of State Cord Byrd, a DeSantis appointee, advised the DOJ that state law doesn’t explicitly permit federal election monitors to be inside polling locations. Elections officials in Orange and Osceola counties said the DOJ told them their observers would remain outside. The DOJ declined the Orlando Sentinel’s request for comment. It announced its Election Day plans Friday but did not explain how it selected the states stretching from Alaska to Mississippi, Texas to New Jersey, or the cities and counties slated to get federal observers.
—“Florida teen forced to collect her own evidence to prove she was sexually abused” via Rachel de Leon of PBS News
“Tarp program, Operation Blue Roof, extended to Nov. 14 for those with roof damage from Milton” via Paul Nutcher of The Lakeland Ledger — At the request of the State of Florida and FEMA, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers will continue to collect Right of Entry forms for Operation Blue Roof through Nov. 14. The new deadline extends the original deadline by nine days, the county said. Homeowners impacted by Hurricane Milton can sign up for the free service at BlueRoof.gov or call toll-free 888-ROOF-BLU (888-766-3258). The county said the program provides a temporary solution to protect a homeowner’s property and allows them to remain in their home. Though commonly referred to as a “tarp,” the temporary covering is fiber-reinforced, industrial-strength sheeting that should protect storm-damaged roofs until homeowners can make permanent repairs.
“Will people leave Florida after devastating hurricanes? History suggests not” via The Associated Press — The news rippled through Treasure Island almost like a third storm: The Mayor planned to move off the barrier island a month after Hurricane Helene flooded tens of thousands of homes along the Gulf Coast and two weeks after Hurricane Milton also ravaged the state. Mayor Tyler Payne’s home had been flooded and damaged beyond repair, and he explained to Treasure Island residents that he and his husband couldn’t afford to rebuild it. He also stepped down as Mayor. “While it pains my heart to make this decision (amid) our recovery from Hurricanes Helene and Milton, this is the best decision for me and my family,” Payne, who had held the office for more than three years and was a fourth-generation Treasure Island resident, said Monday.
— LOCAL: S. FL —
“Florida cannabis tracking company linked to men in Trump Media insider trading scheme” via Ben Wieder, Kevin G. Hall and Jay Weaver of the Miami Herald — A company contracted by Florida and several other states to track the cultivation and sale of legal marijuana has been linked to two men who have been penalized for insider trading, records show. Michael Shvartsman was sentenced in October to more than two years in prison following his guilty plea to securities fraud. Shvartsman made millions of dollars in “illegal profits” from insider trades in a company that merged with Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. The other man, Eric Hannelius, agreed to pay a “civil penalty” in September to settle a civil suit, which also accused him of insider trading concerning the merger with the media company owned by Trump.
“Complaints filed against Doral Mayor over false Miami-Dade GOP endorsement” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — Doral Mayor Christi Fraga is facing state-level complaints for incorrectly claiming endorsements from the Republican Party of Miami-Dade County. The Party Chair suggested it was due to a misunderstanding. Doral resident Norberto Spangaro, a member and former President of the Doral Community Coalition group, filed a pair of complaints with the Division of Elections against Fraga and her Leaders of Tomorrow political committee. The complaints cite an Oct. 18 report by The Floridian that Fraga made social media posts announcing a county Republican Party endorsement of her and a mailer, funded by her PC, asserting the same.
“Miami-Dade voters are electing their first Sheriff in decades. They have two solid choices” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — On Jan. 7, 2025, the Miami-Dade Police Department (MDPD) will transition back into a Sheriff’s Office for the first time in nearly six decades. County voters have two capable candidates to lead the returning agency. It’s a big job. MDPD is the largest law enforcement agency in the Southeast and the eighth-biggest nationwide, with roughly 5,000 employees, including some 3,200 sworn officers and a $1 billion budget. On the Republican side is Rosie Cordero-Stutz, a 28-year MDPD veteran who worked through the ranks to Assistant Police Director. On the Democratic side stands James Reyes, a longtime Broward County Sheriff’s Office member who today oversees Miami-Dade’s Police, Fire and Corrections Departments.
“Candidates clash for vital Miami-Dade Clerk and Comptroller job” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — It’s hardly the first race in the county that comes to mind when discussing the most heated contests this election cycle, but the post at stake is vital. Miami-Dade’s Clerk and Comptroller is the chief custodian of all county records. Following voters’ wishes from a 2018 referendum, the job will soon encompass overseeing all county funds, auditing duties and recording responsibilities. For decades, the position was synonymous with Harvey Ruvin, a widely respected public servant who spent nearly two-thirds of his life in public office, the preponderance of which as Clerk. A Democrat who did all he could not to politicize his office, Ruvin died on New Year’s Eve 2022.
“Judge rejects Miami Beach residents’ complaint against city for canceling homeless tax vote” via Verónica Zaragovia of WLRN — A group of Miami Beach registered voters failed to persuade a judge on Friday to overturn the City Commission’s hasty decision earlier this week to not count votes on a Nov. 5 referendum that asks voters to approve a 1% tax on food and beverage sales on certain businesses to benefit primarily the homeless. Miami-Dade Circuit Court Judge Antonio Arzola ruled that the City Commission had the authority to reject Referendum 8 and not accept the election outcome. The referendum question is already on the ballot, and over 20,000 voters have cast ballots in early voting. Miami Beach Commissioners voted 4-3 Wednesday on a resolution to scrap the referendum question that sought voter approval to allow the city to collect a 1% tax on food and beverage sales, levied on businesses that sell alcohol on-premises and earn at least $400,000 per year. It excluded hotels and motels.
“One of these three lawyers will be Palm Beach County’s first new State Attorney in 12 years” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — With longtime Palm Beach County State Attorney Dave Aronberg departing to begin a “new chapter in life,” voters have three capable candidates from which to choose as his replacement. Democrat Alexcia Cox, Republican Sam Stern and independent Adam Farkas are vying to become the county’s first new State Attorney in 12 years. The winner will earn a salary of $219,000 and command an office of 115 prosecutors and 180 support personnel tasked with delivering justice in Florida’s fourth-most populous county. None of the candidates has held elected public office before.
“Colleagues-turned-foes Ric Bradshaw, Michael Gauger face off for Palm Beach County Sheriff” via Florida Politics — Palm Beach County voters are set to decide whether to keep their longtime Sheriff, Democrat Bradshaw, or replace him with Republican Gauger, who previously served as Bradshaw’s second-in-command. Both are 76 and boast more than 50 years of law enforcement experience. Bradshaw has served five terms as Sheriff. He was first elected to the post in 2004 and is the county’s longest-serving Sheriff ever, overseeing six departments, 4,300 employees, and roughly 1,500 volunteers. Working previously with the West Palm Beach Police Department, Bradshaw began as a road patrol officer and worked his way up to Police Chief in 1996.
“Drinking coincided with Miami City Commissioner’s downfall, documents and sources say” via Joey Flechas and Tess Riski of the Miami Herald — Having earned the reputation early in his career as the “bad boy” of the Legislature, former Sen. Alex Díaz de la Portilla rebranded himself during the 2019 Miami City Commission race as a politician ready to solve everyday resident issues, from potholes to trash pickup. According to people in his orbit, he appeared sharp and sober during his run for City Hall. But those around him say that in the year after he was elected, the Commissioner was drinking heavily, was intoxicated during City Commission meetings, and drank at the office of a city agency he oversaw as Chair.
“‘They just sprung it on us’: Homeless Miamians face repercussions of shelter displacement” via Milena Malaver and Devoun Cetoute of Miami Herald — Since losing his job eight months ago, 35-year-old Yadier Montoya has been living on the streets of Miami. He often prefers to sleep in a tent under a bridge downtown but has repeatedly been told by police that he can’t stay there. On Tuesday, Montoya was granted a seven-day stay at the Camillus House shelter in mainland Miami. But on Friday night, he learned that he and about 50 others were being moved to a hostel on South Beach. “They gave me seven days and by the fourth, they are taking us out,” he told the Miami Herald on Saturday morning. “They told us to pack up because we’re leaving, and now they brought us here.”
“In Miami-Dade, Christian Ulvert helps candidates win elections and developers win deals” via Douglas Hanks of the Miami Herald — When developer Paul Lambert needed help winning county land for the Miami Wilds waterpark under Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava, he hired a consultant who knows her well: Levine Cava’s Campaign Director, Ulvert. “We knew that we needed some help messaging,” Lambert said in an interview about Ulvert’s previously unreported work for Miami Wilds, the controversial project once planned for county land outside Zoo Miami. “Just the same way he does for elected officials. It was to give us advice on how to message it.” Ulvert, 42, became locally prominent in politico circles for his work running campaigns for Democratic candidates across Miami-Dade County. Though not a registered lobbyist, he also works as a communications consultant for private-sector clients.
— LOCAL: C. FL —
“Can Monique Worrell survive Andrew Bain … and Ron DeSantis?” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics — Worrell is asking voters for her old job back after DeSantis threw the Democratic State Attorney out of office last year. But to win it back, she must defeat Bain, whom DeSantis appointed Worrell’s replacement last year as the chief prosecutor of Orange-Osceola counties in the 9th Circuit. The Bain-Worrell showdown is one of Tuesday’s elections’ most high-profile down-ballot races. Bain and DeSantis argue that Worrell is not qualified to serve, while Worrell called her suspension a political attack and defended her track record, saying she is both tough on crime and fair. Meanwhile, Bain says that even though he is a DeSantis appointee, he is nonpartisan.
“Father of Pine Hills victim criticizes GOP for ads attacking Worrell in Orange-Osceola State Attorney race” via Cristóbal Reyes of the Orlando Sentinel — The Republican Party of Florida is getting backlash from the father of one of those slain in a 2023 Pine Hills shooting for politicizing the tragedy after attack ads placed blame on former Orange-Osceola State Attorney Worrell. Court records offer no support for the ads’ suggestion that accused shooter Keith Moses should have been in jail in 2023 based on a 2021 arrest for a misdemeanor drug charge. Further, it is clear Worrell’s office did not mishandle the 2021 case. Moses awaits a murder trial in the Orange County jail. The ads have a familiar refrain: Worrell’s practices were criticized as soft on crime, saying they led to criminals going on to kill innocents. The latest ad stars retired Orange County Chief Judge Belvin Perry — a Democrat who endorsed State Attorney Bain — and features images of Moses’ victims.
“Three Orange County Commission seats up for grabs in high-stakes election” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics — Orange County voters will be deciding three races on Tuesday that could potentially reshape the County Commission. The contests have billions of dollars at stake for developers and the tourism industry. In District 1, incumbent Nicole Wilson has a rematch against challenger Austin Arthur after neither cleared a majority in the August Primary. Wilson topped Arthur by two votes, but Arthur has outraised her with a war chest of nearly $350,000. Wilson has raised about $70,000. The County Commission races are nonpartisan, but politics are still seeping into the race.
“Holly Davis warily eyes no-party candidate Paul Grogan for Citrus County Commission” via Mike Wright of Florida Politics — Republican Commissioner Davis, completing her first term in office, goes up against Grogan, a no-party candidate who spends eight months of the year at sea as a merchant marine. Davis has $85,000 in collections, including some of Citrus County’s biggest political contributors. Grogan has $5,189 in collections, but only $318 is his money. His most significant expense: a $2,929 ballot qualifying fee.
— LOCAL: TB —
“As St. Petersburg debates new tallest tower, crane safety rises as a concern” via Colleen Wright of the Tampa Bay Times — At the first public meeting since a toppled crane destroyed an office building during Hurricane Milton last month, downtown residents pleaded for city leaders to take action on safety for future high-rise construction projects. The subject became one of the top concerns in a nine-hour meeting on Thursday where officials went over the fallout from back-to-back record-breaking storms.
“St. Pete is betting millions that Tropicana Field can be salvaged” via John Romano of the Tampa Bay Times — The City Council reluctantly agreed Thursday to stopgap measures that will protect Tropicana Field from further water damage, even though the stadium’s ultimate fate will not be decided for at least another week. The Council approved up to $6 million in mitigation efforts to create a temporary drainage system and waterproof the facility’s electrical system, offices, concessions and other exposed areas.
“Now serving from the minority on Pinellas Commission, Charlie Justice fights to keep his seat blue” via Janelle Irwin Taylor of Florida Politics — Four years ago, Justice narrowly held onto his seat on the Pinellas County Commission. Now, in what feels like the blink of an eye, he’s facing another tough challenge from the right, this time from government watchdog Vincent Nowicki. The back-to-back challenges from Republicans are part of a broad GOP effort to capitalize on changing demographics that have slowly been shifting Pinellas County into the red column. Justice won re-election four years ago by less than a percentage point against Republican challenger Tammy Sue Vasquez, a local pet boutique owner. Whether this year will be as close remains to be seen.
“Cookie Kennedy looks to preserve Pinellas Commission seat for Dems, but faces a stiff challenge from Chris Scherer” via Janelle Irwin Taylor of Florida Politics — The District 1 race for Pinellas County Commission is critical for Democrats and an opportunity for Republicans. With incumbent Democrat Janet Long retiring, the race is open. The contest pits political newcomer Scherer, a Republican, against former Indian Rocks Beach Mayor Kennedy, a Democrat. Democrats need to hold onto the seat if they want to stave off further gains by the local GOP after the Republican Party claimed a majority on the Commission just two years ago. Republicans are hoping for a flip that will cement that advantage for years. Kennedy, who entered the race last May, is a Pinellas County native. She served as Mayor of Indian Rocks Beach for more than five years.
“Pete Boland, Mike Harting face a close race to replace St. Pete City Council’s only conservative” via Janelle Irwin Taylor of Florida Politics — St. Petersburg City Council races are nonpartisan, but that doesn’t mean the job is free entirely from partisanship. It’s no secret that Ed Montanari is the Board’s only Republican member. And while Montanari has served largely without rampant partisanship, there have been moments when the red shone through. Now two candidates — one a registered Republican and the other working with Republican consultants — are competing in a close race to replace him. The partisanship, though an aspect that’s supposed to be void in these races, is actually important in the District 3 matchup to represent residents in parts of northeast St. Pete.
“Deborah Figgs-Sanders faces tough challenge from ‘mompreneur’ Torrie Jasuwan” via Janelle Irwin Taylor of Florida Politics — Figgs-Sanders is facing a tough challenge this year as she seeks a second term serving in District 5 of the St. Petersburg City Council, which covers parts of south St. Pete including Maximo, Greater Pinellas Point and Lakewood Estates, among other neighborhoods. Her challenger, Jasuwan, is a first-time candidate who, despite relative political inexperience, has proven to be a strong fundraiser and a serious candidate. Jasuwan is a local real estate executive and self-described “mompreneur” who fights to make diapers tax-free. A Pinellas County native, Jasuwan is a small-business owner and real estate broker with Luxe Properties International. She’s also the founder of Babycycle Diaper Bank, a nonprofit that serves more than 250,000 families in need each year.
“Sean Shaw hopes to make a political comeback, and Democrats need him to be successful” via Florida Politics — Rep. Shaw and firefighter Chris Boles are vying to succeed Hillsborough County Commissioner Pat Kemp, who is term-limited out of office and is running for Congress. District 6 of Hillsborough County is likely Democrats’ best chance to win a race after losing control of Hillsborough County to Republicans in 2022. A Sept. 12 poll showed Shaw leading Boles 45% to 41%, with 14% of voters still undecided at the time, meaning there was plenty of room for either candidate to grow support ahead of Election Day. Shaw’s lead was also within the poll’s margin of error of 4.6 percentage points. Shaw also leads Boles in fundraising. Shaw has raised just shy of $184,000. In contrast, Boles has raised almost $160,000, according to the most recent campaign finance reports on file with the Hillsborough County Supervisor of Elections Office, covering financial activity through Oct. 18.
“The race for Pasco Schools Superintendent feels close. Why?” via Jeffrey S. Solochek of the Tampa Bay Times — For decades, Pasco County has been one of Florida’s reliably Republican strongholds. It hasn’t backed a Democrat for President since 2000 or elected one to local office since 2006. Voters regularly turn to Republicans to lead the county government, serve as state and federal lawmakers and run the school district — generally by large margins. It’s a record that might, and often does, give non-GOP aspirants pause. In this year’s Pasco Schools Superintendent race, though, there’s a sense that veteran district educator Chris Dunning has a real chance, running as a no-party candidate to best former Republican state lawmaker and charter school operator.
“Holly Davis warily eyes no-party candidate Paul Grogan for Citrus County Commission” via Mike Wright of Florida Politics — If ever there was a no-brainer race, this is it. Or so it seems. Republican Commissioner Davis, completing her first term in office, goes up against Grogan, a no-party candidate who spends eight months of the year at sea as a merchant marine. Davis has $85,000 in collections, including some of Citrus County’s biggest political contributors. Grogan has $5,189 in collections, but all but $318 is his money. His most significant expense: a $2,929 ballot qualifying fee. He isn’t campaigning in any traditional sense. Grogan did not participate in the Citrus County Chronicle’s election events nor provided the newspaper with any campaign information.
“Ken Frink, Victoria Smith offer contrast for Citrus County School Board” via Mike Wright of Florida Politics — Frink came within a few percentage points in the August Primary of winning outright. Smith had to battle with two others for a second-place finish. Now, both are in the runoff for the District 2 seat on the Citrus County School Board to replace Ginger Byrant, who is retiring after 24 years in office. Frink, a former Crystal River City Manager who served briefly on the City Council, led the Primary with 46% of the vote. Short of the 50%-plus-1 needed to win outright, however, means he must get through a runoff in the General Election. Smith, a Citrus High School geometry teacher, finished second with 24%. Their contrasts provide a choice for voters.
“Five candidates, two races for Crystal River City Council” via Mike Wright of Florida Politics — It’s quite the adventurous time in Crystal River. The past 18 months have brought three hurricanes, a tornado, the forced relocation of City Hall, and turnover in the City Manager’s position. One beloved Council member died, and someone appointed to take his place decided on another political path. And, with all that, voters will choose two City Council members. Seat 1 has three candidates: Gabrielle Satchell, Larry Schenavar and Benje Thomas. Incumbent Ken Brown isn’t seeking re-election. Running in Seat 3: Chris Ensing and Mindi Mulvi Hastings, who is the incumbent following her March appointment. This technically is Hastings’ second run for City Council, though the first try never officially materialized.
“Jacquie Hepfer takes on ‘Library Guy’ for Inverness City Council” via Mike Wright of Florida Politics — The Inverness motto is “Small Town Done Right.” For years, Inverness has conducted the public’s business with very little public involvement. Thirty-minute City Council meetings were the norm. Contested elections for City Council are rare. Two in one year is practically unheard of. Yet, that’s precisely what city voters face this year. Much of the focus is on Seat 2, where incumbent Hepfer faces John Labriola. Labriola is the headline-grabber. Dubbed “Library Guy” by blogger Just Wright Citrus, Labriola has made a name for his anti-LGBTQ rhetoric and attempts to restrict library materials. He most recently called the city’s one-month Cootertober event a celebration of the occult and accused an organizer of being a witch.
— LOCAL: N. FL —
“A Flagler School Board candidate lost his race. DeSantis appointed him to the Board anyway” via The Associated Press — A School Board candidate who lost his race in a county south of Jacksonville will get a seat on the Board anyway after DeSantis tapped him to fill a vacancy. Derek Barrs will take an open seat on the Flagler County School Board in Northeast Florida, succeeding a member who resigned in September, allowing DeSantis to appoint a replacement rather than put the seat on the ballot for voters to decide. Barrs is a consultant with the infrastructure design firm HNTB and a retired Chief of the Florida Highway Patrol who campaigned with a focus on school safety and student achievement. He won DeSantis’ endorsement in his bid for the Board but lost his Aug. 20 race by 290 votes to Janie Ruddy, a former teacher in the District.
“Viral videos show altercations between Jacksonville police and Florida-Georgia spectators” via Teresa Stepzinski of The Florida Times-Union — The Jacksonville Sheriff’s Office is reviewing viral videos showing Jacksonville police officers punching spectators during apparently unrelated altercations during the Florida-Georgia game Saturday night at EverBank Stadium. Mayor Donna Deegan said she has spoken to Sheriff T.K. Waters regarding the videos. “I’m aware of several disturbing videos circulating from yesterday’s game. I have spoken to Sheriff Waters, and the incidents are under investigation. We are awaiting the outcome of that investigation,” Deegan posted on X (formerly Twitter) Sunday morning. One video ― posted on X ― shows two officers struggling with two spectators in the stands.
—@MayorDeegan: I’m aware of several disturbing videos circulating from yesterday’s game. I have spoken to Sheriff (T.K.) Waters and the incidents are under investigation. We are awaiting the outcome of that investigation.
— LOCAL: SW FL —
“Real estate agent and former attorney and author compete Englewood state House seat” via Christian Casale of The Sarasota Herald-Tribune — Republican Danny Nix and Democrat Tony Dunbar are vying for the Florida House District 75 seat and would be the first new representative the area has sent to Tallahassee since 2016. District 75 encompasses southern Sarasota County and northeast Charlotte County, including Englewood, Manasota Key, and Port Charlotte. The seat is currently held by Rep. Michael Grant, the former state House Majority Leader, who is term-limited.
“Bradenton City Council member seeks second term against new candidate in Ward 5 election” via Michael Moore, Jr. of the Bradenton Herald — A first-time candidate is challenging a first-term incumbent for a seat on the Bradenton City Council in Tuesday’s General Election. The Bradenton City Council Ward 5 race pits political newcomer Iris Thomas Garcia against Council member Pam Coachman. Coachman is seeking re-election for the first time after winning the seat in 2020. Both candidates have backgrounds within the School District of Manatee County and believe their visions for Ward 5 can make a serious difference in the community. Garcia argues that she can fully focus on the City Council because she is retired, but Coachman says her four years of experience as an elected official are vital. Ward 5 consists of neighborhoods in east Bradenton south of State Road 64 and areas between Ninth Street West and First Street between SR 64 and 26th Avenue East.
“Three popular Sarasota area waterfront restaurants hope to reopen ‘before the holiday season’” via Wade Tatangelo of the Sarasota Herald-Tribune — While many Sarasota and Bradenton area barrier island restaurants reopen, three of the region’s most popular waterfront dining destinations overlooking Sarasota Bay and the Gulf of Mexico remain temporarily closed. St. Petersburg-based Beachside Hospitality Group purchased the three iconic restaurants on Longboat Key and Anna Maria Island — Mar Vista, Beach House, and Sandbar — from longtime Manatee County resident Ed Chiles on Aug. 1. Due to extensive damage from Hurricanes Helene and Milton, all three restaurants have been closed since late September. However, Beachside Hospitality has assured the Herald-Tribune that all three of these landmark waterfront restaurants will reopen despite at least one of the dining establishments, Beach House, reportedly being inundated with five feet of sand.
— TOP OPINION —
“This is not the end of America” via McKay Coppins of The Atlantic — To a person, everyone I talked with believed they were on the verge of victory — that Harris would defeat the “wannabe dictator” once and for all, pull America back from the brink, and save the world’s oldest democracy from descending into fascism.
Then I would ask a question they found dispiriting: What if she doesn’t?
It’s a question that’s been on my mind for months. We are in a strange and precarious political moment as a country: With four days left in one of the closest presidential races in history, supporters of both campaigns seem convinced that they are going to win — and that if they don’t, the consequences for America will be existential.
Trump and his allies have already clearly signaled what they will do if he loses: Claim victory anyway, declare the election rigged, and engage in another conspiracy to overturn the result, whether by litigation, extra-constitutional arm-twisting, or even violence.
The pressure campaign is unlikely to work; as Paul Rosenzweig noted in The Atlantic, none of the officials overseeing vote tabulation in battleground states is a partisan election denier. Still, this full-frontal assault on the validity of the election represents an ongoing threat.
Democrats have sought to warn voters about the threat that these actions would pose to democracy, sometimes dialing up the rhetoric in an effort to wake Americans to the peril. But the messaging seems to have had an unfortunate dual effect: it deeply stresses out voters already inclined to believe it while largely failing to resonate with the undecided and politically disengaged.
— OPINIONS —
“So, can we trust the polls?” via Nate Cohn of The New York Times — No, you can’t trust the polls — at least if you mean by “trust” what I think you do. You can’t safely assume that the candidate leading in the polls will win. They’re not exact measurements, and elections nowadays are so close that even an excellent poll could leave someone feeling misled on Election Night. But while the polls aren’t so precise that you can trust they’ll nail a tight election, you can’t assume that the polls will badly err again, either, as they did in 2016 or 2020. Last week, we detailed the best theories for why the polls erred in 2016 and 2020, as well as what pollsters have done to try to improve since. On balance, these changes add up to a case for cautious optimism on better accuracy, but there are no guarantees. The case for pessimism is serious as well.
“Garbage in, garbage out: Trump’s error-filled week” via Jennifer Rubin of The Washington Post — Trump, campaigning in Green Bay, Wisconsin, doubled down. Dressing in a high-visibility vest (its orange hue making his makeup look all the more fluorescent) and climbing into a garbage truck emblazoned with his campaign logo, Trump seemed convinced, would remind people of … well … of something noncandidate Biden did not really say. Instead, Trump’s getup just looked ridiculous, and the message was muddled. Was he suggesting he was taking out the garbage — other Americans? Puerto Rico? Trump and Republicans generally made many other face-plants. He felt compelled to declare, “I am not Hitler;” the House Speaker, campaigning for a GOP candidate in Pennsylvania, got caught promising to repeal the Affordable Care Act; and Trump ally and anti-vax conspiratorialist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. claimed he would be put in charge of the Department of Health and Human Services.
“As election nears, a final torrent of BS” via Byron York of the Washington Examiner — This morning, you might have woken up to the news that Trump called for one of his highest-profile antagonists, former Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney, to be executed by firing squad. There it was on the Drudge Report: “TRUMP CALLS FOR CHENEY’S EXECUTION.” MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough said Trump “called for Liz Cheney being shot in the face by nine rifles.” It quickly became common among the journalistic elite to say that Trump had called for Cheney “to face a firing squad.” It was repeated over and over and over again. For Trump’s adversaries, the red light flashed on, the outrage machine roared into action, and the attacks began. Trump calls for executing his political enemies! Given that Election Day is less than 100 hours away, the attacks came with a heightened level of intensity. Yes, it’s crazy, but it is consuming one of the final news cycles before the election.
“Vote. Appreciate your power as the 2024 campaigning comes to an end.” via The Palm Beach Post — By now, after months of door-to-door campaigning, TV ads and those dreaded email solicitations, you probably are well aware that your vote is your voice and that voice is your power. If you haven’t done so by now, please use it. At stake are a number of choices of elected officials in local, state, and federal offices, from Palm Beach County schools to the U.S. Senate. In between are a host of County Commission, constitutional office, Port of Palm Beach, and legislative and judicial candidates who, if given the chance, will determine laws, ordinances, policies, regulations, and rulings that will impact how well you live, work, and play in Florida. Whether it’s accessibility to health care, civility in Congress or traffic tie-ups along Okeechobee Boulevard, who you choose to put in office can make a difference.
“Election Day should have been on Halloween this year” via Kathleen Parker of The Washington Post — Here’s the thing: Americans vote because we can and we owe it to the men and women who fought and died — or got beaten and hosed — so that we could. I would even argue that voting is a duty of citizenship, though I wouldn’t support making it compulsory, as it is in some countries (Belgium, Turkey, Australia, Brazil). Lazy citizens get what they deserve, even if the rest of us don’t always. Anyone who doesn’t vote surrenders another privilege, which is the right to gripe about the way things turn out.
“Voters ousted judge who denied an abortion to ‘C’ student. DeSantis promoted him.” via Frank Cerabino of The Palm Beach Post — I wrote about Jared Smith nearly a year ago. He was a circuit court judge in Hillsborough County then, and the author of a ruling in an abortion case that got national attention. Smith denied a girl’s request by zeroing in on her high school grades, which she said was a “C” average, with some “B” grades. The judge called those grades an indication of her “lack of intelligence,” and used that to deny her request for an abortion. Losing his seat on the circuit bench turned out to be a great career move for Smith. Because a couple weeks ago, DeSantis appointed Smith to a vacancy on a state appellate court, giving him what amounts to a promotion on a higher court.
“Jeff Bezos should donate The Washington Post to a charity” via Steven Waldman of Columbia Journalism Review — Strange as it is to say, we can understand the position in which Bezos finds himself. Amazon, his tech giant, and Blue Origin, his space business, have so much riding on the decisions of the federal government. Last time Trump was mad at Bezos, the Pentagon steered a $10 billion contract for cloud computing away from Amazon. There are too many points of pressure. Bezos is simply too financially compromised to be the owner of one of the most important news outlets in America. Cable TV titan H.F. “Gerry” Lenfest donated the Philadelphia Inquirer to a charitable trust. Paul Huntsman converted the Salt Lake Tribune to a nonprofit. Nelson Poynter did the same some time ago with the St. Petersburg Times, which is now the Tampa Bay Times and is owned by the Poynter Institute.
— INSTAGRAM OF THE DAY —
— ALOE —
“Retailers across Florida are already prepping for robust holiday shopping season” via Drew Dixon of Florida Politics — It seems Halloween was just here. But as is the trend, Florida retailers are already getting into the holiday season and getting ready for what is promising to be a very robust Christmas shopping period. The National Retail Federation (NRF) is already projecting that the 2024 holiday season will bring record-breaking spending by American consumers. Shoppers plan to spend $902 on average on gifts by the time Christmas and other holidays arrive. That’s about $16 more than the previous record set in 2019. This year’s projected spending on holiday gifts is about $25 higher on average than last year’s spending level. The Florida Retail Federation (FRF) is angling to keep Floridians focused on buying holiday gifts from Sunshine State retailers this year.
“UF Health goes mobile with new cancer treatment vehicle” via Drew Dixon of Florida Politics — The University of Florida (UF) Health Cancer Center is going mobile. UF Health has launched a new 40-foot-long vehicle designed to take cancer treatment and relief on the road. The “Mobile Cancer Screening Connector” is designed to provide mobile outreach for cancer screenings, three-dimensional mammograms and other cancer screening procedures. The Mobile Cancer Screening Connector is the first mobile cancer treatment vehicle in North Florida. It aims to provide cancer outreach treatment to the more rural areas of North and Central Florida where residents are far from a fully functional cancer facility at a traditional hospital, said.
— HAPPY BIRTHDAY —
Happy birthday to Reps. Demi Busatta Cabrera and Felicia Simone Robinson; Robert Beck, Carlos Cruz, Angela Dempsey, Broward Co. Commissioner Steve Geller, Jamie Jacobs and Joe Marino. It’s also Carolina Amnesty‘s birthday.
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Sunburn is authored and assembled by Peter Schorsch, Phil Ammann, Daniel Dean, Ryan Nicol, Jacob Ogles, and Drew Wilson.
