Peter Schorsch
Good Friday morning.
Breaking overnight — “Israel strikes Iran: Explosions in Tehran, sirens in Israel” via Barak Ravid and Dave Lawler of Axios — The Israeli Air Force conducted a strike in Iran on Thursday, with explosions reported in Tehran, marking a major escalation in regional tensions. The direct attack on its primary adversary reportedly occurred without clear U.S. backing, as President Donald Trump had publicly opposed such a move. In anticipation of imminent retaliation, Israel has declared a national state of emergency, restricting civilian activities. While the specific targets remain unclear, the U.S. has notified its allies that it was not involved but has nonetheless boosted its own regional air defenses. The strike threatens to ignite a wider military conflict that could draw in American forces, even if they were not part of the initial operation.
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Bettors are predicting a GOP sweep in next year’s statewide elections.
As of Thursday, 86% of Kalshi users believe Republicans will win the U.S. Senate race; 89% think Republicans will win the Governor’s race as well.
While those numbers likely won’t surprise many given the lopsided statewide wins by the GOP in 2022 and 2024, they bode best for two well-positioned candidates.
In the Senate race, appointed U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody is drawing the most interest, with 92% putting their money behind her. Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is not interested in running, is at 3%. Attorney General James Uthmeier and former House Speaker José Oliva are at 1% each.
No major Democrats have entered the race yet, but Kalshi users have their eyes on two potential candidates: U.S. Rep. Jared Moskowitz (15%) and former U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist (11%).
For Governor, U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds is the prohibitive favorite for the GOP nomination, with 81% of bettors backing the Trump-endorsed Congressman.
First Lady Casey DeSantis is in a distant second place at 17% with Wilton Simpson drawing 3% support — neither Casey DeSantis nor Simpson has launched a campaign, although the former has long been seen as a likely candidate.
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Matt Dailey will transition to the government side of outreach next week, assuming the role of Communications Director for the Florida Senate Democrats.
He wraps up his work this week as the Florida Democratic Party’s Deputy Communications Director, a job he has held since 2023. A replacement at the state party was not immediately announced. Dailey starts in his new role in the Florida Capitol on Monday.
The Santa Rosa County native previously held communications roles at Faith in Public Life Florida, the Common Ground Project, and the Florida Communications and Research Hub. He also acted as Campaign Manager for Leon County Commissioner Christian Caban.
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“Jessica Lowe-Minor just became the Florida League of Women Voters’ youngest president ever” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — Nonprofit leader Lowe-Minor is making history as the youngest person ever elected President of the League of Women Voters of Florida (LWVFL). Chosen during the organization’s 40th Biennial State Convention in Orlando, Lowe-Minor now leads the 104-year-old nonprofit, known for empowering voters and protecting democracy through nonpartisan statewide advocacy. In a statement following her election, the 41-year-old said the LWVFL must defend Floridians’ freedoms from threats of authoritarianism that are in ample supply today. “Never in my lifetime have we been in such a dire moment, but we are not alone,” she said. “We are together, we are a network, and we are growing. People are looking for things to do and ways to help, and we have answers.”
— SITUATIONAL AWARENESS —
—@RealDonaldTrump: Our great Farmers and people in the Hotel and Leisure business have been stating that our very aggressive policy on immigration is taking very good, long-time workers away from them, with those jobs being almost impossible to replace. In many cases, the Criminals allowed into our Country by the VERY Stupid (Joe) Biden Open Borders Policy are applying for those jobs. This is not good. We must protect our Farmers but get the CRIMINALS OUT OF THE USA. Changes are coming!
Tweet, tweet:
—@DHSGov: Senator (Alex) Padilla chose disrespectful political theatre and interrupted a live press conference without identifying himself or having his Senate security pin on as he lunged toward Secretary (Kristi) Noem. Mr. Padilla was told repeatedly to back away and did not comply with officers’ repeated commands. @SecretService thought he was an attacker and officers acted appropriately. Secretary Noem met with Senator Padilla after and held a 15-minute meeting.
—@DavidFrum: Every viewer of the tape heard Senator Padilla identify himself. He’s the ranking Democrat on the Senate Subcommittee on Immigration and Border Safety. We’re supposed to believe that Homeland Security Secretary Noem did not recognize him?
Tweet, tweet:
—@JohnLBria: Big shift in America’s view on mass deportation. Disney has even created a channel called “ESPN Deportes” where viewers can watch the deportations.
—@DavidFolkenFlik: A historic moment for public broadcasting: House votes to eliminate ALL federal funding. Senate must vote to approve bill by July 18 for it to take effect. Conservative activists nearing goal. Daunting for hundreds of public media stations across country as well as NPR & PBS.
—@TerryMoran: I was a reporter and anchor for ABC News. And as you may have heard … I’m not there anymore. Now I’m on Substack, that amazing space, and I can’t wait to get into the important work that we all have to do.
— DAYS UNTIL —
Leadership Blue Weekend — 7; Special Primary Election for Senate District 15 to succeed the late Geraldine Thompson — 11; Florida Chamber Florida Learners to Earners Workforce Solution Summit — 11; ‘The Bear’ season four premieres — 12; ‘Squid Game’ season three premieres — 14; James Gunn’s ‘Superman’ premieres — 28; ‘Happy Gilmore 2’ premieres on Netflix — 42; ‘Fantastic Four – First Steps’ premieres — 42; Florida Freedom Forum — 50; ‘Eyes of Wakanda’ premieres on Disney+ — 54; Florida Chamber Florida Technology & Innovation Solution Summit — 60; The 13th Annual Florida Restaurant and Lodging Association (FRLA) Summit — 60; Mickey’s Not-So-Scary Halloween Party begins — 63; Special Election for Senate District 15 — 81; Cowboys-Eagles open NFL season — 83; the Emmys — 93; DeSantis and the Cabinet will meet — 96; Florida TaxWatch Government Productivity Awards — 97; Paul Thomas Anderson’s ‘One Battle After Another’ starring Leonardo DiCaprio premieres — 105; Florida TaxWatch Annual Board Meeting — 115; Future of Florida Forum (F3) & Florida Chamber annual meeting — 136; ‘Wicked: Part 2’ premieres — 161; ‘Stranger Things’ final season premieres — 166; Bears vs. Eagles on Black Friday — 168; Florida Transportation, Growth & Infrastructure Solution Summit — 173; Florida Chamber Annual Insurance Summit — 173; ‘Knives Out 3’ premieres — 182; DeSantis and the Cabinet will meet — 187; ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ premieres — 189; Broncos vs. Chiefs in Kansas City on Christmas Day — 195; Milano Cortina Olympic & Paralympic Games begin — 238; F1 Miami begins — 322; Untitled ‘Star Wars’ movie premieres — 343; FIFA World Cup™ begins — 363; ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ premieres — 553; Another untitled ‘Star Wars’ movie premieres — 553; Tampa Mayoral Election — 627; ‘The Batman 2’ premieres — 840; ‘Avengers: Secret Wars’ premieres — 917; 2028 Los Angeles Olympics Opening Ceremony — 1127; 2028 U.S. Presidential Election — 1243; ‘Avatar 4’ premieres — 1643; ‘Avatar 5’ premieres — 2374.
— TOP STORY —
“Latest House offer includes 2% state employee pay raise, below Senate push for 4%” via Drew Wilson of Florida Politics — The House and Senate are closing in on a compromise for state employee pay raises, with the House proposing a 2% increase, meeting the Senate’s original 4% proposal halfway. This pay bump, which includes a minimum raise of $1,000, would apply to approximately 100,000 state workers in most non-law enforcement roles across the legislative, judicial, and executive branches. The move was anticipated by sources familiar with the budget negotiations.
Notably, this legislative push for a raise follows DeSantis‘ decision not to include a pay increase for state workers in his draft budget for the upcoming fiscal year. This marked the second time during his tenure that the Governor’s budget recommendation had omitted a general pay raise, leaving the Legislature to initiate the proposal.
While most state workers are slated for a modest raise, both chambers are unified on a more substantial pay plan for law enforcement. A new budget proposal would give officers with at least five years of service a 10% raise, while those with ten or more years would receive a 15% increase. The plan also establishes a minimum base pay of $60,000 for law enforcement. Lawmakers must finalize the budget by June 15 to meet their scheduled adjournment date.
— STATEWIDE —
“Budget conference: Lawmakers agree to cut 455 positions at DCF, most in mental health” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — The Florida Legislature has agreed to cut 454 positions at the Department of Children and Families (DCF), a nearly 4% reduction in its workforce. The plan, now pending DeSantis’ review, eliminates 89 vacant posts and 365 full-time jobs at DCF mental health facilities, saving an estimated $22.4 million. This compromise follows weeks of budget negotiations, during which House leaders initially proposed deeper cuts. Lawmakers cited the need for better accounting and acknowledged the difficulty of DCF work, which includes high caseloads and turnover. The cuts are part of a broader state initiative to increase government efficiency, which provides for the sunset of state boards and the auditing of local government spending.
“Budget conference: Legislature agrees on new funding model that could expand Schools of Hope” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — The Senate and House have agreed to create a new funding mechanism for “Schools of Hope,” privately run charter schools designed to compete with struggling public schools. The deal, embedded in the state budget, sets aside funds that the Department of Education can release to eligible schools upon submission of detailed spending plans. This agreement also redefines “persistently low-performing schools” and revises sponsorship rules, effectively expanding the program. The move represents a significant policy shift accomplished through the budget process after a standalone bill to expand charter school funding failed during the Regular Legislative Session, ensuring the charter expansion heads to the Governor’s desk.
“Budget conference: House agrees to add more Judges, boost funding for correctional programs” via Ryan Nicol of Florida Politics — During ongoing budget negotiations, the House has adjusted its offer on key justice system funding items. The new proposal increases spending to certify 97 new judgeships. It nearly doubles the allocation for the Department of Corrections programs, bringing the total proposed spending for five key line items to $28.64 million. However, the House also proposes cuts, eliminating a $400,000 item for FDLE law enforcement programs and reducing funds for local government grants and courthouse facilities. A significant gap remains between the House and the Senate, which previously proposed over $95 million for the same items, with negotiators facing a tight deadline to finalize the budget and end the extended Session.
“Budget conference: Some $3M added to state justice measure to handle more immigration detainees” via Drew Dixon of Florida Politics — In a move to bolster funding for jails handling more detainees of those being apprehended by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents, legislators added more funding to a Senate appropriations measure. The Appropriations Conference Committee on Criminal and Civil Justice late Thursday added a provision and specific funding appropriation to the Florida Department of Law Enforcement “to award grants to local jails that are under construction and have contracted with (ICE) to support immigration enforcement efforts.” Jason Garcia, reporter with the Orlando Sentinel, picked up on the funding addition to the Senate Appropriations bill (SB 2500) that’s estimated to be some $3 million. However, Senate documents released during the budget conference on Thursday did not specifically state the exact amount of funding.
“Budget conference: House makes push to end emergency powers of regulating medical marijuana” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — The House wants to end emergency powers for regulating medical marijuana that have been in place since 2017. The latest House Health Care budget proposal would make substantial changes to the Department of Health’s rulemaking authority regarding cannabis. “I think it’s inappropriate to propagate rules for nearly a decade outside the sunshine and with zero transparency,” said Rep. Alex Andrade, a Pensacola Republican who chairs the House Health Care Budget Subcommittee. Florida voters in 2016 approved a constitutional amendment that legalized the use of marijuana only for medical purposes. The Legislature approved a regulatory framework to implement that policy but allowed heavy restrictions on the marketplace from the Department of Health.
“Budget conference: Chambers sign off on slashing 600 state Health Department positions” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — The Florida Department of Health (DOH) is downsizing, employment-wise, under the Legislature’s spending plan for the coming fiscal year. In its latest cross-rotunda offer, the House agreed to the Senate’s proposal to eliminate 451 vacant DOH positions and cut another 150 posts through a staffing budget reduction. Combined, the 601 slashed positions — representing about 4.5% of its employment rolls — are expected to result in a $34.4 million favorable impact on the state’s General Revenue Fund. The Senate’s plan was markedly more modest than what the lower chamber initially contemplated: cutting 1,630 vacant positions, give or take, for a $105.8 million savings.
“Budget conference: Lawmakers agree on $352M for Gov. DeSantis’ roads plan” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics — Both chambers of the Florida Legislature support allocating nearly $352 million for DeSantis’ “Moving Florida Forward” initiative, a figure consistent with the current fiscal year’s funding. This program is part of a broader four-year, $4 billion plan by DeSantis to accelerate 20 major road construction projects in the state’s most congested areas. The Governor champions the initiative as a critical investment that brings projects to completion years ahead of schedule, citing expanded I-4 lanes as a key success. He argues that fast-tracking these projects boosts the economy, eases traffic caused by a surging population, facilitates the more efficient movement of goods, and is vital for improving future hurricane evacuation routes in the increasingly crowded state.
“Budget conference: VISIT FLORIDA draws divide on nature, ‘trail town’ marketing” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics — The Senate is fighting to give $5 million for VISIT FLORIDA to promote Florida’s nature and trail towns to boost tourism, while the House is against spending the money. It’s one of the Senate bump issues being debated Thursday. The Senate wants to pull the $5 million from the Tourism Promotional Trust Fund. If the $5 million makes it through into the budget, which towns could get the extra attention? Dunedin, Malabar, Titusville, Gainesville, Clermont, Winter Garden and Venice are among the cities advertised as “trail towns” on the state’s website that highlights paved bike paths, popular annual rides and scenic routes.
“DeSantis deletes ‘LGBTQ and Hispanic communities’ from Pulse anniversary statement” via Steven Lemongello of the Orlando Sentinel — DeSantis’ annual statement on the Pulse shooting anniversary released makes no mention of the LGBTQ and Hispanic communities, the two groups most devastated by the massacre that left 49 dead. That’s a turnabout for the Governor, who had mentioned those communities last year and in other previous statements, recognizing the shooting on June 12, 2016. His earlier anniversary statements called the shooting a “horrific act of terrorism against the LGBTQ and Hispanic communities.” In his first year in office, however, the two-term Governor also failed to note who was most impacted by the shooting and faced blowback. The deletion this year seems in line with efforts by both the DeSantis and Trump administrations to purge what they call “diversity, equity and inclusion” from the government.
“DeSantis and Greg Abbott lob threats at protesters ahead of ‘No Kings’ demonstrations” via Ja’han Jones of MSNBC — Ahead of Saturday’s “No Kings” demonstrations, Republican Governors are issuing threats and preparing shows of force. In Texas, Gov. Abbott warned protesters with the message “FAFO,” an acronym for “f— around and find out,” and announced the deployment of thousands of National Guard and state police. The Houston Chronicle criticized the move as an overreaction. In Florida, DeSantis adopted a similar tone, promising that for those who engage in rioting or vandalism, “we will make an example of you — you can guarantee it.” Critics argue this rhetoric is designed to shield Trump and chill dissent, but hundreds of protests are still scheduled to proceed nationwide.
“Teacher unions say Florida has ‘failed miserably’ in effort to break them” via Jeffrey S. Solochek of the Tampa Bay Times — Back in 2023, DeSantis signed into law a measure making it tougher for public employee unions to continue operating. Unions had to meet stricter guidelines, demonstrating that at least 60% of all eligible workers approved of their existence. Some have been trying to meet the mark ever since. The delay has not been their doing. The Pinellas Classroom Teachers Association, for instance, delivered more than 4,000 interest cards to the state Public Employees Relations Commission 464 days ago. The cards represented a petition seeking a vote to retain the union. The PERC did not call that election until this week. It took so long that the union had to petition for a second vote after the first year passed without one. Voting will begin June 17 and run through July 15, with the results determining whether PCTA will continue as the teachers’ contract bargaining agent.
“Senate supports $1 million for DeSantis’ America party” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics — DeSantis has announced that Florida will celebrate America’s Semiquincentennial next year, and the Senate is proposing to allocate $1 million toward the event. The Senate is proposing the nonrecurring $1 million from the general fund revenue to pay for grants related to the celebration following DeSantis’ executive order in December to begin preparing. “What a great thing to celebrate,” quipped Sen. Ed Hooper during a media gaggle after Thursday’s budget conference meeting. “We all want to celebrate 250 years.” Hooper spoke with the media Thursday after he acknowledged the long days as staff and lawmakers are still in ongoing budget talks this week to finalize the state’s spending plan.
— FOR YOUR RADAR —
“Big Pharma bad. Big Media bad. Big Tech bad. Big Oil … good? Not so fast, Governor” via Peter Schorsch of Florida Politics — DeSantis has built his entire political career on taking a flamethrower to out-of-state giants, from Big Pharma and Big Tech to the “Big Mouse” itself. So why is he now reportedly considering a veto of HB 1143, a bill designed to keep Louisiana Big Oil out of Florida’s precious Apalachicola River Basin? It’s a strange move, especially since the bill, which protects local seafood jobs and ecosystems, passed the Legislature with a unanimous vote — the kind of rare consensus usually reserved for naming a state dessert.
This is the same Governor who sued Big Pharma, fined Big Tech, and dismantled Disney’s “corporate kingdom” for interfering in Florida. He has also invested a record $6 billion in environmental protection, championing initiatives ranging from Everglades restoration to combating red tide. A potential veto flies in the face of his own well-honed persona as a defender of state sovereignty and the environment. Any legal advice suggesting a recent court ruling makes the bill moot is specious; that ruling is nonbinding and only applies to a single well. Only HB 1143 offers real protection.
This legislation isn’t the Green New Deal; it’s the Red Snapper Deal, the Oystermen Protection Act. It’s the “Don’t Let Louisiana Decide What Happens in Franklin County” Act. If the Governor meant what he said about fighting outsiders and protecting Florida’s natural resources, this is his moment to prove it. He must stand with Floridians and sign the bill, because siding with out-of-state oil interests would be a Big Mistake.
—”Oil drilling critics urge DeSantis to block state permit” via Bruce Ritchie of POLITICO
—MORE STATEWIDE—
“‘When’s it going to stop?’ Bill could open Florida Keys to new development” via Alex Harris of the Miami Herald — The Florida Keys is poised to see a flurry of new development — despite warnings that island chain is already overpopulated with worsening traffic and rising flooding risks — thanks to a new bill set to become law at the end of the month. SB 180, which primarily focuses on hurricane recovery and emergency response, would also allow up to 900 new developments over the next 10 years in the Florida Keys through a small change in the mandatory evacuation window for Monroe County, pushing it just half an hour back from 24 hours to 24.5 hours. The small tweak could have big consequences for the Keys, the only place in Florida with state controls on growth.
“James Uthmeier warns retailers not to use tariffs to justify ‘price gouging’” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics — Uthmeier says retailers shouldn’t use tariff turmoil to take advantage of consumers. Uthmeier cited a “very low inflation report” to say it’s “nonsense” for major retailers to use Trump’s tariffs “as an excuse to raise prices on customers.” And if shoppers struggle with sticker shock, they are urged to reach out to Tallahassee for help. “We won’t stand for major retailers’ price gouging Floridians. If you believe you’ve been a victim of price gouging, visit our website to file a complaint,” the DeSantis appointee urged. The Consumer Price Index reports that inflation increased 0.1% month over month and 2.4% year over year.
— D.C. MATTERS —
“Military parade, big protests will fuel clashing visions of America” via Naftali Bendavid of The Washington Post — In Washington, tanks will roll down the streets, planes will streak overhead and bands will pump out military tunes as soldiers parade before a president who embraces a gilded, muscular form of patriotism — and whose birthday it is. Across the country, demonstrators will flood hundreds of cities and towns, making speeches and holding “No Kings” signs to denounce what they see as Trump’s authoritarian tactics and disregard for the Constitution. This Saturday will see one of the starkest displays of America’s divisions since Trump took office, as contrasting visions of America unfold in vivid colors on the country’s streets. The confrontation now playing out in Los Angeles is certain to fuel both sides, as some Americans cheer Trump’s strong hand in quashing purported chaos and others decry what they see as his growing embrace of authoritarian tactics.
“Trump administration tells migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela their legal status is terminated” via Priscilla Alvarez of CNN — The Department of Homeland Security told hundreds of thousands of migrants that their permission to live and work in the United States had been revoked and they should leave the country. The termination notice was addressed to nationals of Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela who came to the United States through a Biden-era parole program. More than half a million people from those four countries benefited from the program, though it’s unclear how many have since sought other forms of immigration relief while in the United States. The notice was sent to the email addresses provided by those in the program. “This notice informs you that your parole is now terminated,” the notice reads. “If you do not leave, you may be subject to enforcement actions, including but not limited to detention and removal, without an opportunity to make personal arrangements and return to your country in an orderly manner.”
“Fulbright board resigns over alleged Trump administration interference” via Mariana Alfaro of The Washington Post — The entire 12-person board tasked with overseeing the State Department’s Fulbright Program resigned Wednesday, claiming political interference from the Trump administration. In a statement posted on the board’s Substack, the congressionally mandated Fulbright Foreign Scholarship Board said its members voted “overwhelmingly” to resign from the board “rather than endorse unprecedented actions that we believe are impermissible under the law, compromise U.S. national interests and integrity, and undermine the mission and mandates Congress established for the Fulbright program nearly 80 years ago.”
“Megabill would cost poorest households $1,600 a year, boost richest by $12K, CBO predicts” via Jennifer Scholtes of POLITICO — The lowest-income households in the United States would lose $1,600 a year in federal resources under the domestic-policy package House Republicans passed last month, Congress’ nonpartisan scorekeeper predicts. At the same time, resources would be increased by $12,000 for the highest-income households under the legislation, according to the analysis the Congressional Budget Office published Thursday. For middle-income households, the bill is projected to increase resources by $500 to $1,000 a year, an increase of less than 1 percent of their income.
“Republican proposal would slash aid for part-time and working students” via Ian Hodgson of the Tampa Bay Times — A U.S. House Republican budget proposal could strip Pell Grant aid from nearly 4.5 million low-income students. The bill aims to address a $2.7 billion program deficit by tightening eligibility, including redefining full-time enrollment to 30 credit hours and capping the award amount. Under the plan, two-thirds of current recipients would see aid reduced or eliminated, with part-time and working students hit hardest. Critics warn this could devastate college access for vulnerable learners, while supporters argue the cuts are necessary for the program’s long-term solvency. The proposal is not yet final, as it must be reconciled with a different Senate version; however, it poses a significant threat to a cornerstone of federal financial aid.
“House approves Trump’s request to cut funding for NPR, PBS and foreign aid” via The Associated Press — The House narrowly voted Thursday to cut about $9.4 billion in spending already approved by Congress as Trump’s administration looks to follow through on work done by the Department of Government Efficiency when Elon Musk oversaw it. The package targets foreign aid programs and the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, which provides funding for National Public Radio and the Public Broadcasting Service, as well as thousands of public radio and television stations across the nation. The vote was 214-212. Republicans are characterizing the spending as wasteful and unnecessary, but Democrats say the rescissions are hurting the United States’ standing in the world and will lead to needless deaths.
“Carlos Giménez to visit ICE detention centers in Miami after Herald uncovers harsh conditions” via Syra Ortiz Blanes and Claire Healy of the Miami Herald — Giménez plans to tour Florida facilities holding immigration detainees following a Miami Herald investigation into harsh conditions and use of force at the Federal Detention Center (FDC) in Miami. The federal lawmaker said that he first learned about the reported conditions at FDC Miami when a journalist from the Washington Journal’s C-Span program asked him about the Herald story this morning. “I will be investigating those conditions,” said the Miami Republican during an interview on Capitol Hill. “Right now, is the first I’ve heard of it.” The Federal Detention Center in downtown Miami has been housing detainees in civil immigration custody since February.
— ELECTIONS —
“Not just talk: John Rutherford draws Primary challenge from radio host Mark Kaye” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics — Podcaster and radio host Kaye is launching a Primary challenge against incumbent U.S. Rep. Rutherford in Florida’s 5th Congressional District. Positioning himself as a more “loud, combative conservative,” Kaye argues that Rutherford is not the strong voice Republicans need, especially if Democrats control the House. While Rutherford, a four-term Congressman, has consistently defeated past Primary challengers and holds a significant fundraising advantage, Kaye plans to leverage his national following of “Kayetriots” for grassroots support. The race is notable as the Primary winner is virtually guaranteed victory in the heavily Republican district, making this internal party contest the one to watch for a clash between establishment and populist wings.
“Republicans believe they can flip this seat in a Florida blue bastion. Here’s why” via the Miami Herald editorial board — The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) is targeting Democratic Congressman Moskowitz’s South Florida seat, signaling the GOP’s growing confidence in Florida’s rightward political shift. This focus on District 23, in traditionally blue Broward County, shows Republicans feel emboldened to challenge even long-time Democratic strongholds. Although Moskowitz is a moderate who served under DeSantis, his narrow victory margins and Kamala Harris’ slim win in the district suggest vulnerability. With a credible Republican opponent already fundraising, the race highlights how Florida’s changing landscape puts even once-safe Democratic seats in play, demonstrating that the repercussions of the state’s political realignment are expanding.
— LOCAL: S. FL —
“No Kings Day protests to include march to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — Nationwide demonstrations against Trump will include protesters planning to march on his Florida home Saturday. As Trump prepares to hold a military parade coinciding with his birthday, critics will host “No Kings Day” events across the country. In South Florida, 50501 South Florida, Voices of Florida, The Florida Valkyries and other progressive groups will gather individuals to march from Phipps Skate Park in West Palm Beach to Trump’s Florida estate at Mar-a-Lago. “The protests aim to reject tyranny dressed as celebration. On June 14, we will stand united against the corruption, cruelty, and contempt for humanity that have defined the Trump regime,” reads a release from the group.
“’One Big Beautiful Bill’ harms more than it helps, says Miami archbishop” via Thomas Wenski for the Miami Herald — The “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” now in the Senate, poses a substantial threat to our nation’s common good with its draconian, enforcement-only immigration policies. It allocates a staggering $24 billion for enforcement and $45 billion for detention while imposing prohibitive new fees for asylum and work permits. This approach is both financially illogical and morally unjust, targeting hardworking individuals who fill critical labor shortages, not criminals. Instead of funding a mass deportation campaign that will tear apart families and disrupt industries, Congress must amend this bill. It is imperative to eliminate wasteful enforcement spending and instead create legal pathways to permanent status for non-criminal immigrants, aligning our laws with our economic needs and moral foundations.
“Uthmeier says Miami can’t move election date without voter approval” via Tess Riski of the Miami Herald — Attorney General Uthmeier has issued a written opinion saying the city of Miami cannot push its election back to 2026 without first getting voter approval, potentially thwarting a proposal that’s slated to go before the City Commission for a preliminary vote Tuesday. Uthmeier issued an opinion in response to an inquiry from Commissioner Miguel Angel Gabela asking whether the City Commission can push the upcoming November 2025 election to 2026 via ordinance rather than getting voter approval. “If the City of Miami is to amend its charter, either to move the date of municipal elections or to change the terms of office for elected officials, then the change may only proceed by a vote of the electors,” Uthmeier wrote.
“After Copa America chaos, Hard Rock is strengthening security for Club World Cup” via Vivienne Serret of the Miami Herald — As ticket prices for Saturday’s FIFA Club World Cup opener go down and several thousand go unsold, those making plans for the match are hoping it will go smoother than last year’s Copa America final at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. Thousands of fans — including those without tickets — stormed the Hard Rock’s gates last year to watch the final match between Argentina and Colombia. Dozens were arrested, 55 others were ejected, and the game was delayed by over an hour. For Saturday’s game featuring Inter Miami vs. the Egyptian team Al Ahly, a Hard Rock spokesperson said in a statement that “fans should expect to pass through multiple security and ticket check points in order to enter Hard Rock Stadium.”
“Miami Lakes to vote on suing Florida over state law blocking suits over property-damaging blast mining” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — After years of legislative inaction, Miami Lakes is poised to take a legal stand to protect its residents and their properties from home-shaking blast mining. Town Council members will consider a measure by Steven Herzberg to challenge the constitutionality of Florida Statute 552.36, which prohibits residents from pursuing legal claims in court for damages caused by the use of explosives at nearby limestone quarries. If approved, the item would authorize the town to file a lawsuit or join existing litigation against the state law that has effectively blocked property owners from seeking redress for cracked walls, rattled foundations, and emotional distress stemming from mining detonations in northwest Miami-Dade County. Herzberg told Florida Politics on Thursday the item is likely to receive sufficient support on June 17, noting that he and three other members of the seven-seat Council have served on the town’s Blasting Advisory Board. It was also a top issue for candidates in the town’s election last year.
“DEP investigates illegal mangrove-removal and Indian River Lagoon water pollution” via Timothy O’Hara of Treasure Coast Newspapers — A Windsor resident is responsible for the illegal removal of mangrove trees and pollution of the Indian River Lagoon from the unpermitted clearing of his Sebastian waterfront property, state and county officials told TCPalm. Christian U. Hammarskjold gave a Florida Department of Transportation contractor permission to enter his property to access a drainage ditch on state right-of-way for routine maintenance, but he also hired that contractor to clear his land without permits. “The Florida Department of Environmental Protection is coordinating with multiple agencies to investigate reports of turbid water runoff and mangrove trimming at a property in Sebastian,” DEP spokesperson Megan Rutter told TCPalm. “Any findings will be reviewed to determine whether further compliance or enforcement actions are necessary.”
— LOCAL: C. FL —
“Brevard Sheriff warns violent protesters could end up ‘graveyard dead’” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics — Amid concerns about potential unrest from anti-Trump administration protests, Brevard County Sheriff Wayne Ivey has issued a severe warning to violent demonstrators. Distinguishing between peaceful and violent actions, Ivey stated that protesters who mob cars will be “run over,” while those who attack deputies with weapons like bricks or guns “will be notifying your family where to collect your remains at. Because we will kill you, graveyard dead.” His comments echo remarks from DeSantis and were supported by Attorney General Uthmeier, who also announced new state measures, including investigations by the Florida Highway Patrol, to protect ICE agents from being “doxxed,” signaling a hardline stance against protest-related violence.
—”What is No Kings Day? Here’s what to know about where, when Brevard protests are planned” via Michelle Spitzer and Samantha Neely of Florida Today
“Two immigrants held in ICE detention are back home in Central Florida” via Ryan Gillespie of the Orlando Sentinel — Two women who were arrested for minor traffic violations and funneled into immigration detention — despite living here legally — have been released from ICE custody in Texas and are back with their families in Central Florida, attorneys announced Thursday. Their situations — and, for now, the surprising resolution for each — underscore the confusion surrounding immigration enforcement in Central Florida and elsewhere. Immigration arrests are surging in the region, far outstripping previous annual totals less than halfway through 2025. One of the women who appeared at a news conference, Jennifer Rodriguez, was arrested in Polk County in March for failing to appear in court on a charge of driving without a license. The charge was eventually dropped, but she was still held in the Osceola County jail on an immigration detainer, said Phillip Arroyo, an attorney hired to represent her.
“Worker sues after fingers were amputated following Orlando hotel accident” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics — A worker doing renovations at an Orlando hotel pool was injured in an accident that cost him several fingers. It doesn’t appear that the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) was notified that Mario Navarro Perez, who worked for an audio installation company, had been hurt at the Orlando World Center Marriott in 2023. “As a result of the incident, he suffered fractures to multiple fingers on his left hand that required surgery, and tragically, his fourth and fifth fingers on his right hand were amputated,” said Catherine Register, chief operating officer at Fasig Brooks law offices, in a statement to Florida Politics. No complaints on the day of the injury were listed on OSHA’s online database for the Tampa office, which covers Central Florida.
“Feds say Orlando Panera Bread franchise operator faces fine for illegally employing minors” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics — A Panera Bread franchise operator is facing a $600,000 fine after the federal government said the business violated child labor laws in Orlando for 240 minors. Covelli Enterprises, which runs 15 restaurants in the Orlando area, employed 240 employees under 16 years old from 2021-2023, according to a federal complaint filed by U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer this month. The DOL investigated the restaurants and found violations, the court records said. It’s unclear in the records how old the minors were, the hours they worked or what their roles were in the cafes.
“UCF changing name of football stadium” via Kathy Laughlin of the Orlando Sentinel — It’s officially bouncing now. Or at least, it will be July 1. The UCF football stadium, known as FBC Mortgage Stadium, is being renamed Acrisure Bounce House after the UCF Board of Trustees approved the change on Thursday. FBC Mortgage, which signed a 10-year naming rights deal in 2022 for the football stadium, is set to rebrand to Acrisure Mortgage, also on July 1. “Since the beginning of our partnership, the stadium has become an iconic symbol of the UCF football experience, and we’re excited to continue that tradition with Acrisure,” UCF Vice President and Director of Athletics Terry Mohajir said in a press release. “The Bounce House is a place of pride, energy, and unforgettable moments, and this new name reflects both our vibrant identity and a dynamic, forward-thinking partner.”
— LOCAL: TB —
“‘No Kings’ protests taking to the streets across Tampa Bay on Saturday” via Joey Swanson of FOX 13 News — On Saturday, protests are scheduled across the Tampa Bay Area as part of a nationwide “No Kings” day of defiance against the Trump administration. The demonstrations coincide with Trump’s 79th birthday and a military parade in Washington, D.C., celebrating the U.S. Army’s 250th anniversary. Organizers describe the events as a stand against authoritarianism. Local protests are planned in multiple locations, including St. Petersburg, Largo, Palm Harbor, Tampa, New Port Richey, Plant City, and Lakeland, with various start times throughout the day, providing numerous opportunities for residents to participate in the coordinated action against the current administration.
“Leo Govoni gets reprieve before contempt ruling in $100M bankruptcy probe” via Christina Georgacopoulos of the Tampa Bay Business Journal — Bankruptcy attorneys who are searching for more than $100 million that Clearwater businessman Govoni siphoned from accounts of a local nonprofit said they believe he is “deliberately misinforming” the court in an attempt to hide assets. U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Roberta Colton was set to rule on a motion during a Thursday hearing in Tampa to hold Govoni in criminal contempt for his failure to cooperate with court orders. After his legal team filed a batch of documents on Wednesday evening, she instead ordered a recess to evaluate the materials before issuing a final order on the motion, which could result in jail time.
— LOCAL: N. FL —
“Thousands will rally against Trump on ‘No Kings Day.’ Where to protest in Jacksonville” via Doris Alvarez Cea and Samantha Neely of The Florida Times-Union — On June 14, to counter Trump’s military parade in D.C., a nationwide “No Kings” day of defiance will see protests across the country. Organized by grassroots groups like Indivisible, the movement is a stand against perceived authoritarianism, rallying under the slogan “No thrones, no crowns, no kings.” In Florida, four are scheduled in the Jacksonville area alone. This local activism is particularly notable as it comes just months after Trump won back Duval County in the 2024 Election, signaling significant and organized political opposition despite recent Republican gains in the region.
— LOCAL: SW. FL —
“Frontier announces launch of new nonstop flight out of RSW in Fort Myers. What to know” via Mark H. Bickel of Fort Myers News-Press — Frontier Airlines announced the launch of new nonstop service June 12 from Southwest Florida International Airport (RSW) to Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL). The service will operate twice per week. The new route is tied to Frontier’s “America’s Greenest Airline” promotion, with fares starting at $59. Tickets must be purchased by 11:59 p.m. Eastern time on June 25, 2025. Sale fares are valid for non-stop travel on select days of the week, June 27, 2025, through Nov. 19, 2025. The following blackout travel dates apply: July 3 and 6, 2025, and Sept. 1, 2025. A 14-day advance purchase is required. Round-trip purchase is not required.
— TOP OPINION —
“An abuse of power case with Broward ties” via the South Florida Sun-Sentinel editorial board — In a case with national implications, the Florida Supreme Court must decide whether DeSantis and the Attorney General’s Office of Statewide Prosecution (OSP) abused their power by prosecuting Terry Hubbard, a Broward County man, for illegally voting. At the heart of the matter is whether the OSP, an office constitutionally designed to fight multi-jurisdictional organized crime, can bypass local state attorneys to prosecute single-circuit election offenses. The Governor’s high-profile announcement of Hubbard’s arrest, alongside 19 others, during his 2022 re-election campaign appeared to be more of a political spectacle than a serious effort to address widespread voter fraud, which evidence suggests is not a significant problem.
Hubbard’s case has drawn widespread criticism and friend-of-the-court briefs from a diverse coalition, including former Republican State Sen. Jeff Brandes and the original authors of the constitutional amendment that created the OSP. They argue that allowing the OSP to take this case represents a dangerous overreach of state power, a sentiment echoed by a dissenting appellate judge who warned the OSP is not a “Marvel superhero” meant to “steamroll over the local state attorney.” This legal contortion, critics say, not only undermines the state constitution but also risks chilling voter participation among eligible returning citizens, particularly Black voters.
The case of Terry Hubbard v. State of Florida is about more than just one man’s vote; it’s a test of whether a politician’s whim can override the literal text of a state’s constitution. The court’s decision will have a lasting impact on the balance of power in Florida and set a precedent for how far a state government can go in wielding its authority. What’s at stake is the integrity of our legal system and the fundamental right to vote, making this a pivotal moment for Florida and the nation.
— MORE OPINIONS —
“Stephen Miller triggers Los Angeles” via Nick Miroff of The Atlantic — In Los Angeles, intense protests erupted in response to a new, aggressive phase of ICE raids championed by the Trump administration’s Miller. The demonstrations, a diverse mix of Angelenos, have included peaceful marches alongside vandalism, looting, and arson. This has prompted an escalating federal response, including the deployment of the National Guard and the threatened use of Marines. While local leaders struggle to contain the violence, White House officials are reportedly “delighted” with the chaotic imagery, using it in political ads to push a “law and order” narrative. The conflict highlights a deep cultural and political clash, with the administration leveraging the unrest it helped provoke for its own strategic advantage.
“Sign here, Governor, and keep veto pen handy” via the South Florida Sun-Sentinel editorial board — As DeSantis weighs nearly 100 bills, he holds the final say on key legislative decisions. Among the proposals deserving his signature are crucial reforms and acts of justice. This includes SB 10, which awards $1.7 million to Sidney Holmes for his 34 years of wrongful imprisonment, and SB 130, which repeals the unfair “clean hands” rule for other exonerees. He should also sign SB 1622 to restore public beach access, HB 913 to provide financial relief for condo owners, and bills to enforce residency and travel rules for state agency heads and stop officials from shaking down lobbyists. These measures represent sound policy and are worthy of becoming Florida law.
WEEKEND TV
Facing South Florida with Jim DeFede on CBS 4 in Miami: The Sunday show provides viewers with an in-depth look at politics in South Florida and other issues affecting the region.
In Focus with Allison Walker on Bay News 9/CF 13: A discussion on Pride Month and the ongoing efforts to make sure representation and equality ideals are being realized. Joining Walker are State Sen. Carlos Guillermo Smith and George Wallace, Chief Executive Officer, LGBTQ+ Center Orlando, Inc.
Political Connections on Bay News 9 in Tampa/St. Pete and Political Connections on CF 13 in Orlando: The weekly Sunday show is now a joint weeknight show airing Monday through Friday at 7 p.m.
The Usual Suspects on WCTV-Tallahassee/Thomasville (CBS) and WJHG-Panama City (NBC): Gary Yordon and Democratic gubernatorial candidate David Jolly.
This Week in Jacksonville with Kent Justice on Channel 4 WJXT: Rick Mullaney, executive director of the Jacksonville University Public Policy Institute; Kim Hermann, president of the Southeastern Legal Foundation; Caleg Riggins, Florida Youth of the Year for the Boys and Girls Club; and Wyatt Pallette, COO of the Boys and Girls Club Northeast Florida.
This Week in South Florida with Glenna Milberg on Local 10 WPLG: Milberg speaks to U.S. Rep. Carlos Giménez of Florida’s 28th Congressional District about recent ICE raids as well as the resulting protests across the U.S. Plus, South Miami Mayor Javier Fernández explains why he’s waiting for a judge to rule on whether his city is required to participate in a 287G agreement.
— INSTAGRAM OF THE DAY —
— ALOE —
“Bay scallop harvesting season opens in three counties on the Nature Coast Sunday” via Drew Dixon of Florida Politics — The bay scallop harvesting season opens Sunday in the Fenholloway-Suwannee River Zone on Florida’s Nature Coast. The recreational season has been a big draw for visitors and residents of the area that includes all state waters in Dixie County, parts of Taylor County, including Keaton Beach and Steinhatchee, and portions of Levy County. The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) encourages Floridians to take advantage of the scallop season that runs through Sept. 1, which is Labor Day. But FWC officials caution those taking part to be aware of regulations. Some of those regulations are specific to particular portions of the season.
— HAPPY BIRTHDAY —
Best wishes to Ron Brise and our dear friend Allison Carvajal. Belated best wishes to the awesome Ashley Chambers.
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Sunburn is authored and assembled by Peter Schorsch, Phil Ammann, Daniel Dean, Ryan Nicol, Jacob Ogles, and Drew Wilson.
