Winner and Loser of the Week in Florida politics — Week of 7.23.23

Former President Donald Trump got some unwelcome news last week when he received a target letter regarding his actions during the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol.

No indictment has come down on that case as of this writing, but Trump got some more unwelcome legal news this week with a superseding indictment in the Mar-a-Lago documents case.

That update featured charges against a third person, another Trump underling, who prosecutors allege tried to cover up evidence related to the case. Some legal experts have surmised prosecutors may try to get that new defendant to flip on Trump.

That’s more legal headaches for the man who, in polling, is well ahead of all of his GOP presidential rivals.

We wrote early last month about competitors such as Ron DeSantis missing an opportunity to go after Trump on these more serious legal issues, putting to the side the local prosecution in New York City, which is a weaker case. So how is the field responding this time?

Pretty much crickets, once again.

Yes, DeSantis is trying to toy with ever so minor criticism of Trump. But mixed are comments like he made to Megan Kelly, preemptively floating a pardon for Trump if he’s convicted in a federal case.

News flash for the Governor’s team (and anyone else carrying Trump’s water on this): Making comments like that is only going to reinforce for the GOP base the idea that these prosecutions are illegitimate. Trump’s poll numbers have risen as his legal difficulties have worsened, precisely because the base feels that way. Those looking to topple Trump need to try to disabuse them of that notion, not cement it further.

Contrast that to the messaging of former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who worked earlier in his career as a prosecutor. Christie believes the documents case is a much stronger case than the New York charges regarding Trump allegedly violating campaign finance law to pay hush money to a porn star. But he said this week that even if something shouldn’t be charged, that doesn’t mean it’s right.

“Whether you believe it was a crime or not, or whether you believe it’s fair to prosecute him for that or not, is the conduct something that you believe is appropriate for someone who wants to be President of the United States?” Christie asked.

“For instance, the prosecution in Manhattan is one that I wouldn’t have brought as a prosecutor. But do we want someone as President who is willing to pay off a porn star who he had an affair with two months before a national election to hide it from the people who he’s asking for their vote for President of the United States? I think that’s probably conduct that we should be frowning upon.”

That’s on top of emphasizing the severity of the documents case and Trump’s misconduct there.

Once again, Trump is facing problems that should disqualify most candidates. And once again, most of the GOP field is too afraid to say so out loud.

Now, it’s on to our weekly game of winners and losers.

Winners

Honorable mention: Florida Democrats. Fresh off a win in the Jacksonville mayoral race and the scheduling of a closely watched House Special Election in a district Democrats are looking to flip, the state party announced a big voter registration push heading into the 2024 cycle.

That effort will include a $1 million investment and Chair Nikki Fried is embarking on a bus tour hitting 17 major counties in the state to motivate blue voters.

Now, the jury is still out on this and Democrats will have to prove they can make inroads here as the Florida GOP continues to expand its newly acquired voter registration advantage.

Democrats are also contending with a new state law that wiped out previous vote-by-mail requests, requiring voters to re-submit those requests for 2024. As an example, deep blue Broward had 420,885 requests on file before the change. As of this past week, only 37,611 voters had applied to receive those ballots next cycle.

So there are plenty of headwinds here for Democrats. And as Florida GOP Chair Christian Ziegler pointed out, Democrats promised a big voter registration effort in 2019 while they still had an edge over Republicans. Two years later, Republicans had overtaken Democrats.

The onus is on the Florida Democratic Party to show this time is different. But by making this commitment, they are at least showing they’re willing to try to make 2024 more competitive in Florida than many may expect.

Almost (but not quite) the biggest winner: Byron Donalds. Donalds stood his ground after DeSantis’ team went after the Congressman following Donalds’ minor criticism of the state’s Black history education standards.

Donalds praised those standards overall, calling them “good, robust (and) accurate.” But he did quibble over the much-maligned line that, when middle schoolers learn about slavery, “Instruction includes how slaves developed skills which, in some instances, could be applied for their personal benefit.”

“The attempt to feature the personal benefits of slavery is wrong (and) needs to be adjusted,” Donalds said in a post online. “That obviously wasn’t the goal (and) I have faith that (the Florida Department of Education) will correct this.”

That drew the ire of Team DeSantis.

Supposed conservatives in the federal government are pushing the same false narrative that originated from the (White House), Press Secretary Jeremy Redfern wrote, questioning Donalds’ conservative bona fides.

“Florida isn’t going to hide the truth for political convenience. Maybe the Congressman shouldn’t swing for the liberal media fences like (Kamala Harris).”

Harris previously criticized the state’s standards, but was overbroad in her criticism, arguing Florida was teaching that slavery was a benefit to slaves.

That’s overstating the case. But Donald’s critique was more nuanced, arguing an emphasis on slaves possibly developing some beneficial skills distracted from the overall horrors of the practice.

His comments could have been left alone. But DeSantis’ squad wouldn’t let it lie. Donalds is a vocal supporter of President Donald Trump in the 2024 GOP Primary, though he’s been tight with DeSantis in the past as well. Nevertheless, perhaps Team DeSantis, amid a series of negative headlines regarding his presidential campaign, felt attacked by a rival political camp and felt they needed to respond.

Donalds has stood his ground, arguing the DeSantis side blew the story up unnecessarily.

“This is a dumb story and this is brought to us by the DeSantis campaign. They’re the ones who made this an issue. I’ve been very clear that the standards are robust, they are accurate. They are good,” Donalds said.

“But my issue is with one sentence of the entire thing, one sentence of 200 pages,” Donalds continued. “And the DeSantis team wants to make a big issue out of it. That’s ridiculous.”

The move is especially interesting as Donalds is known to be considering a run for the Governor’s Mansion in 2026. That race for the GOP nomination could be heavily contested, and may be influenced by who DeSantis decides to back.

Donalds’ push here may be a sign he’d pass on a 2026 run, or it could be a signal he’s willing to run without a DeSantis endorsement. Perhaps some are calculating that DeSantis’ so-far disastrous 2024 run will hurt him at home as well, and blunt any impact of an eventual endorsement in the 2026 Governor’s race.

Don’t discount Donalds here. He’s made moonshot bids that have successfully generated him plenty of buzz in the past.

The biggest winner: Anna Paulina Luna, Jared Moskowitz. The two Florida lawmakers were credited this week with pulling together research at a much-watched hearing on unexplained aerial phenomena (UAP).

“Many Americans are deeply interested in this issue and it shouldn’t take the potential of nonhuman origin to bring us together,” Moskowitz said about Wednesday’s hearing.

The meeting generated several headlines, such as a witness testifying that the federal government has recovered “nonhuman” bodies. U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz also described seeing an image of a mysterious orb taken by U.S. Air Force pilots in the Gulf of Mexico after originally being denied access to the image.

“One of the pilots goes to check out that diamond formation and sees a large floating, what I can only describe as an orb, again, like I said, not of any human capability that I’m aware of,” Gaetz said. “And when he approached, he said that his radar went down. He said that his FLIR system malfunctioned and that he had to manually take this image from one of the lenses.”

The issue has gained increased attention in recent months, with a helping hand from U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio as well. As Florida’s delegation continues to push the issue, maybe we’ll soon know more about the origins of some of these phenomena.

“From Roswell, New Mexico, to the coast of Jacksonville, Florida, the sightings of UAPs have rarely been explained by the people who have firsthand accounts of these situations,” Luna said.

Moskowitz too called for more transparency during the hearing.

“We must always protect our national security to maintain our superiority, like when stealth helicopters were only rumored to exist, but were used in the Osama bin Laden raid in 2011,” Moskowitz said.

“But we can’t allow that to be used as a shield to keep the American people completely in the dark from basic truths. The American people deserve to hear more about Special Access Programs. Congress has a right to know if there’s any unsanctioned weapons development, satellite imagery, that has not been provided to Congress.”

Losers

Dishonorable mention: Sophia Lacayo. After raising tons of cash for a 2022 Miami-Dade County Commission bid — a race which she lost — Lacayo is now facing criminal charges relating to campaign finance violations.

“The numbers provided in the sworn campaign documents, they didn’t add up,” State Attorney Katherine Fernandez Rundle said in announcing the charges.

She faces two batches of felony charges: four counts for making contributions in the name of someone else and four more counts for receiving contributions above the legal limit. Those are third-degree felonies.

Lacayo is also facing similar misdemeanor-level charges, as well as other misdemeanor counts relating to falsifying reporting records. Fernandez Rundle called the violations “deliberate.”

Florida Politics raised questions about her financing during her run against Doral Mayor Juan Carlos Bermudez to succeed former Commissioner Jose “Pepe” Diaz. Bermudez won that race and now sits on the Commission.

According to the Miami Herald, Fernandez Rundle said Lacayo shifted money through multiple bank accounts, running as much as $450,000 from her business account to her personal account to her campaign account. Prosecutors allege that was an effort to skirt campaign finance laws on donation limits. Lacayo’s efforts allowed her to outspend Bermudez 3-to-1.

Perhaps Lacayo being accused of using underhanded tactics shouldn’t be that shocking though. Lacayo formerly served as a Sweetwater Commissioner. That is, until resigned and pleaded guilty to perjury charges after facing allegations she lied about living in Sweetwater during the campaign for that seat.

Almost (but not quite) the biggest loser: Joel Greenberg, Michael Shirley. A jury found Shirley, a former consultant to disgraced ex-Seminole County Tax Collector Greenberg, guilty on all federal charges related to a bribery scheme involving his former boss.

Prosecutors said Shirley obtained up to $466,625 by submitting fake invoices to Greenberg’s Office. While Shirley faced charges during the trial, held this past week, the proceedings revealed additional troubling details about Greenberg’s tenure and those in his orbit, according to reporting on the trial from the Orlando Sentinel.

Former radio host Joe Ellicott, who used to be a Greenberg ally, testified in this week’s trial about a payment allegedly paid to Greenberg, with Shirley also presenting a fraudulent contract.

“In case somebody asks … I need deniability,” Shirley allegedly said.

Shirley’s defense then tried to undermine Ellicott’s testimony by questioning him about claims he had sex with a 17-year-old girl. Ellicott, who is serving prison time as part of a plea deal, pleaded the Fifth.

Ellicott’s prison time doesn’t currently stem from and sex trafficking or statutory rape charges, rather, he was charged as part of the money scheme that roped in Shirley and Greenberg.

The newest conviction, which featured plenty of other testimony about the shady dealing between Greenberg and Shirley, just adds extra depth to the chaos and depravity that was part and parcel of Greenberg’s tenure.

The biggest loser: DeSantis. Lest you, dear reader, think we have it out for DeSantis, the Republican presidential contender landed in the winner’s column last week for a much-needed interview on CNN as he tried to present himself to a wider audience amid a much-ballyhooed campaign reset.

This week, that “reset” resembled a Hail Mary amid a sinking campaign.

Look, it’s never a good sign when, during your previously highly anticipated run for President, you have to deal with headlines about your formerly competitive polling numbers hitting new lows, or when pollsters are openly skewering your messaging.

It’s certainly not encouraging when you have to fire a staffer who created a video featuring Nazi imagery, or when your campaign is bleeding so much money you’re forced to cut one-third of your staff as large donors publicly wonder whether they need to abandon ship.

It also must be disheartening that, after letting go of all that staff, the candidate himself keeps making gaffes like casually discussing how he expects his likely Democratic opponent to die soon or floating appointing a noted conspiracy theorist in Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to head major government agencies (a position DeSantis meekly tried to walk away from).

Adding insult to injury, that conspiracy theorist has also moved ahead of DeSantis in odds to become President and his fundraisers are reportedly outperforming the Governor’s.

And when mounting a monthslong bid for the White House, you never want to see stories about how you may be tanking future runs should this one not work out, or how your massively funded super PAC is considering supporting other candidates instead.

And folks, you really, really, really do not want to end up in a situation where all of those headlines happened in just the last week (seriously).

How, one might ask, do you reboot that?