Winner and Loser of the Year in Florida politics — 2024 edition

Welcome to this special, end-of-year edition of our winners and losers column, where are spotlighting the biggest stories that mattered in Florida in 2024.

There was a lot to pick from.

Three major hurricanes rocked the state this year, leaving devastation in their wake in Florida and beyond. Floridians are still recovering from the impact of those storms, which have triggered insurance claims nearing $5.5 billion combined.

The Seminole Tribe of Florida ended the year with its prized Gaming Compact with the state formalized and in full swing after a series of major court wins, including in front of the U.S. Supreme Court.

Orange County Supervisor of Elections Glen Gilzean closed the year with multiple revelations of him sending out millions of dollars in unapproved spending efforts, drawing swift rebukes from other county officials and even some legal threats.

And former University of Florida President Ben Sasse was pushed out of his gig after his own alleged spending indiscretions.

There were plenty of other legislative food fights, local corruption stories, and electoral battles that didn’t make the cut. But while many of those stories were top of mind for many Floridians, for better or worse, they were all one-upped by the stories below.

Here is our take on the biggest stories that mattered in 2024. And for all of those reading — even those typing angry responses in the comments section after reading something that sends your new Christmas coffee mug flying — we wish you a very Happy New Year and hope 2025 brings many blessings to you and yours.

Without further ado, here are our winners and losers of 2024.

Winners

Honorable mention: Trump nominees. We’ll have more on President-elect Donald Trump’s historic win in Florida in a moment. But while that win was obviously a personal boon for him, it was one of the clearest examples that a rising tide lifting all boats in Florida’s political history.

Trump will take a team of Florida Men and Women with him to the White House next year. A non-exhaustive list includes:

— Miami-Dade County Commissioner Kevin Marino Cabrera as Ambassador to Panama.

— Orlando lawyer Dan Newlin as Ambassador to Colombia.

— Former U.S. Rep. Dave Weldon as Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

— U.S. Rep. Mike Waltz as National Security Adviser.

— Former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi as U.S. Attorney General.

— Trump Co-Campaign Manager Susie Wiles as Chief of Staff, an early pick which rightfully generated widespread praise given Wiles’ stellar track record.

— U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio as Secretary of State (more on that later).

And that list of major appointments was almost longer. Trump also originally selected Hillsborough County Sheriff Chad Chronister as Administrator of the Drug Enforcement Administration before backing off over concerns about Chronister’s COVID-era enforcement actions. Trump also made sure to take a swipe at Chronister on his way out.

As Pete Hegseth’s nomination for Defense Secretary teetered, Gov. Ron DeSantis emerged as a favorite to replace him. That door has seemingly closed, though it could reopen depending on how Hegseth’s confirmation hearings go next year.

And of course there was the failed effort to nominate former U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz as Attorney General, though we’ll have more on that later as well.

It’s not just Trump’s official nominees who have benefited from his win. Trump is also supporting state Sen. Joe Gruters to become the next Treasurer of the Republican National Committee. And some of these nominees are leaving Congress, creating openings for ambitious Florida pols to pursue.

It’s not yet clear who has the inside track on Rubio’s Senate seat, as DeSantis will get to appoint someone to serve until the 2026 election. But in races to replace Gaetz and Waltz, Trump has endorsed Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis and state Sen. Randy Fine, respectively. Both face competitive Primaries in next month’s Special Election, but both are favored given the President-elect’s support.

And so, with the first Florida Man elected to the White House, we now see a flood of Florida talent moving to Washington with him. And speaking of Florida talent …

Almost (but not quite) the biggest winner: Florida GOP. We saw signs of it in 2022, but this cycle made it official: Florida is now a red state.

And given the ineptitude of the Florida Democratic Party in recent history, Florida is likely to remain in firm Republican control for most of the next decade.

Let’s start at the top of the party with Chair Evan Power. A reminder, Power only took over as Chair at the beginning of this year as the Republican Party of Florida was still reeling from the scandal involving their previous Chair, Christian Ziegler.

And there were some questions as to whether Democrats could mount a surprise comeback this year given success in the 2023 Jacksonville mayoral election and a win in the House District 35 Special Election in January.

But Power and the Republican Party answered those questions with dominance in November. They saw dominant wins at the top of the ticket. Miami-Dade County was a sweep up and down the ballot. And Republicans flipped back that HD 35 seat lost in January to boot.

They entered this cycle with a legislative supermajority, and exited with an even larger one thanks to state Rep. Susan Valdés deciding to swap parties and ditch the Democrats for the Republicans. And just in case that wasn’t enough, Friday saw Republicans court another convert in Rep. Hillary Cassel.

And that’s due in large part to House Speaker Daniel Perez, who will lead the chamber the next two years while Republicans maintain an advantage that allows them to fully control the legislative agenda.

“Our Speaker, Rep. Daniel Perez, has laid out a vision for the House that focuses on empowering House members to work on real problems facing our communities,” Valdés wrote in a missive announcing her swap. “That’s what I want to be a part of. I want to roll up my sleeves and work. I want to be a part of solving problems for West Tampa.”

Perez, too, was lauded for his first speech as House Speaker during this year’s Organization Session, in part for laying out an agenda alongside Senate President Ben Albritton to tackle insurance and other affordability issues, which are top-of-mind for many Floridians.

It’s important to note that the GOP’s success wasn’t a given. Yes, DeSantis and Rubio won their statewide races in 2022 by 19 and 16 points, respectively. That certainly showed Florida’s days as a true swing state were numbered.

But 2022 was also a unicorn year, with DeSantis at the peak of his powers and the state coming out of the COVID pandemic. Were voters just frustrated in an off-year election? Or was this the sign of permanent change?

Well, 13-point wins by Trump and U.S. Sen. Rick Scott this year shut down that debate. Purple states don’t yield four 13-plus-point wins in two years in a state’s most high-profile elections.

And as a cherry on top, party members will get to head to Washington to revel in Trump’s inauguration ceremony in just a few weeks. It’s well deserved after the historic progress flipping the state’s voter registration numbers, which now seem to have cemented a built-in GOP advantage for the foreseeable future.

The biggest winner: Florida’s U.S. Senators. As we teased above, this was a banner year for Florida’s U.S. Senators.

Scott, for the first time in his political career, was able to celebrate a clear-cut win on Election Night. Seriously, this guy had a knack for nail-biters. He won his first race for Governor by just over a point in 2010, then won by about a point again during his re-election bid in 2014.

Making the jump to Senate in 2018, Scott defeated then-Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson by 0.2 points in a race that went to a recount.

This year? A near 13-point shellacking of former Democratic U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.

Yes, Scott followed that with a loss in his bid to become the next Republican Leader in the Senate. But he demonstrated a groundswell of support in the process, showing he will continue to be a significant national player going forward. And most importantly, he locked up another six years in Washington with relative ease, allowing him time to consider his next move.

Rubio, meanwhile, has already made his next move. While some of Trump’s nominations were controversial, Rubio’s nomination as Secretary of State earned bipartisan praise. And it is as sure of a thing as you can get in Washington that his soon-to-be-former Senate colleagues will vote to confirm him.

Florida Politics reporters Jacob Ogles and Jesse Scheckner worked together on a great write-up earlier this month about the impact Rubio will have on Florida’s large Cuban American diaspora. And that’s just one of many areas Rubio will influence as a leader of America’s foreign policy in the years ahead.

It’s a tumultuous time to be taking over, making his position even more important.

Keep in mind as well that Rubio nearly left the Senate in 2016. During his run for President, he made clear his disdain for the Senate and stated he would not run for another Senate term if his presidential bid failed. DeSantis, then a Congressman, even filed to replace him.

Then, Rubio changed his mind and ran again, DeSantis dropped his bid and later ran for Governor, and the rest is history.

And look, regardless of whatever reservations a Senator has about the inner workings of that chamber, it’s hard to quit with no backup plan . Rubio was (and still is) young and likely would have been successful in the private sector. But it’s a different ballgame than being one of 100 Senators in a country of more than 300 million.

Enter this Secretary of State opportunity, giving Rubio an out, but one that still puts him in a significant position of authority. And it’s not one Rubio just had a casual interest in. Foreign policy, particularly regarding China and the Americas, has been central to his tenure as a Senator. Now, he’ll have a much louder voice in that arena.

Secretary of State is also a position that could propel Rubio toward a future presidential run. Before you take to the comments section, yes, we remember that Rubio was one of the top candidates for VP. But we’d like to point out that only six residents of the Naval Observatory have gone on to be elected (emphasis on elected) President, tying with Secretaries of State.

Put simply: Both of Florida’s Senators in 2024 saw events that put them in a position to be major players on the national stage in the years ahead. The next year will be about seeing what they do with that increased relevance.

Losers

Dishonorable mention: Carolina Amesty. We spotlighted the Amesty saga from start to finish, documented starting last year via excellent reporting from the Orlando Sentinel. But the scandals surrounding her this year built to a crescendo before ending with her losing her seat representing House District 45.

Reporting beginning in 2023 focused in on questions surrounding the Central Christian University, which was founded by her father and where Amesty herself also formerly played a role. Those questions dealt with claims about the university, issues surrounding tax bills and some claims the institution may have violated its nonprofit status by hosting political events with Gov. DeSantis and former Vice President Mike Pence.

In March 2024, more scrutiny swirled around Amesty allegedly notarizing a document she verified was signed by educator Robert Shaffer. Central Christian University was seeking a license and listed five people on faculty to help boost the university’s appeal, including Shaffer.

The problem is, Shaffer said he said he never signed the document.

That episode led to a Florida Department of Law Enforcement investigation, which resulted in felony charges filed this August. The Orlando Sentinel then followed up with additional reporting that Shaffer and his roommate said Amesty approached him and tried to get him to change his story.

With all of these clouds surrounding her, and up against a formidable opponent in Democrat Leonard Spencer, Amesty in November became the only incumbent Florida House Republican to lose her seat.

That’s quite the fall from grace. So why isn’t Amesty higher on the list? Well, thanks to a gift from the DeSantis-installed Orange-Osceola State Attorney, Andrew Bain, Amesty had all four charges against her dropped.

Bain, fresh off losing a bid to be elected to a full term, used his lame-duck period to state that Amesty was eligible for a diversion program. She’ll still be required to complete a financial crimes course, a financial literacy course and 30 hours of community service.

So her legal troubles, at least, are resolved. But whether she’ll be able to successfully reenter public service — or whether she’ll try — remains an open question.

Almost (but not quite) the biggest loser: Florida Democrats. And just like Florida Republicans have plenty to celebrate, the Florida Democratic Party is potentially staring at years of irrelevance.

Look, we can run through the gamut here (and we will in a second), but let’s just go back to not one, but two House Democrats deciding to swap parties post-election. Our opinion aside, if that’s not a glaring indicator of how irrelevant even members think the party is, what is?

But this really was an election where the walls came crashing down for Democrats. They had hopes in the off-cycle races we mentioned above. They played aggressively, fielding a candidate in every congressional and legislative seat on the ballot.

And they gained precisely zero seats.

This year, even when acknowledging positive signs here and there for Democrats, we advocated caution that they would be able to go from losing by almost 20 points statewide in 2022 to turning the state blue again one cycle later.

We did say in January that it was “all but certain” Democrats would improve on those 2022 margins, and they did. The problem is, that couldn’t get closer than 13 points, which is still a blowout by any definition.

Before we knew the results, we advocated for national Democrats to take a flier on Florida, if for nothing else than to hedge against losing Senate seats elsewhere in the country.

But despite some funding coming in, it wasn’t enough to make a dent against the negative trends, like Team Biden openly dismissing Florida and Republicans building a massive early voting advantage heading into Election Day.

Look, unicorn events happen. And maybe some unforeseen event comes along and revives Democrats’ hopes here within a couple cycles.

Absent that, here’s why we don’t see much hope: You remember those narrow Scott wins we referenced above? Democrats were losing race after race like that (see DeSantis over Andrew Gillum in 2018 and, of course, the 2000 Presidential Election as well) even when, generally speaking, this state was a coin flip.

Even with essentially even odds, Democrats were still snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

The last two cycles show us, at worst, that Republicans now have a built in advantage in the low single digits or high double digits. And you expect this Democratic Party to overcome that to snag some wins? Give us a break.

Now, a decade-plus down the line, who knows? Would you have guessed 10 or 20 years ago that Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina would be more contested than Florida? Things change, and no one can credibly see that far into the future.

But the 2020s appear to be the GOP’s time to shine here in Florida. And barring some cataclysmic event for Republicans, they should comfortably coast here in Florida until the next decade.

The biggest loser: Gaetz. Call it recency bias if you like, but no one had a worse end of the year than Gaetz.

From the high of the Attorney General appointment to one week later being bullied out, things were already looking down for Gaetz to close out the year. But he had a new gig at One America News to lean back on and hope everything blew over in time to potentially run for Governor in 2026.

Then, the House Ethics Committee reversed course and decided to release all the details of its report into Gaetz’s conduct. And all of a sudden, his gamble to instantly resign for the House ahead of that report’s release ended up meaning nothing, as the full report came out anyway.

Now as we’ve said over the last few weeks, and as reporting this week from The Bulwark echoed, Gaetz’s future political career isn’t dead despite all these hurdles. All it takes is a decision by Trump to endorse him in the GOP Primary. And with Florida’s now red lean, it’s a hard sell for a Democrat to beat even someone as polarizing as Gaetz in a General Election.

But that potential rebound is in the future. During our normal run of this weekly column, we remind readers that it is a weekly column. We are primarily looking at the impact of that week, even if things might change going forward.

Well, in this yearly edition of the column, we’d send the same reminder. Maybe Gaetz rehabs his image. Maybe he turns himself into an alt media star.

But right now, in 2024’s final weeks, he went from being the No. 1 law enforcement official in the country to hosting a show on a network that isn’t even distributed to almost 90% of households in this country while his dirty laundry is aired for all to see.

Then again, people have come back from worse …