Winners and losers emerging from Florida’s Primary Elections

Florida voters made a lot of decisions Tuesday night in races up and down the Primary ballot. But more appears on each ballot than mere votes. Reputations are built or squandered as supervisors count votes each election, and Florida Politics keeps score.

Incumbents were ousted, upsets were made and, like always, there were players who stood out and players who took a nosedive. In our Winners and Losers list, we look at the people behind the scenes making calls that could make or break races.

Winners

Ron DeSantis — The Primary was a test of his endorsement power. He could’ve gone easy on himself and made safe bets such as Aaron Bean in CD 4 or Laurel Lee in CD 15. But where’s the fun in that? In addition to propelling School Board candidates to the top, he put his muscle behind a little-known HD 16 candidate who didn’t have two coins to rub together and was up against a big-money candidate and a big-name lifetime politician. She won in a landslide.

Team Crist — There’s not a Floridian who doesn’t know Charlie Crist’s name … and Charlie knows more of their names than any pol still in the game. But Dems gave him a shot in 2014 and the party faithful needed some convincing to rally behind him again. That was a team effort. Campaign Manager Austin Durrer, Communications gurus Josh Karp and Sydney Throop, and Political Director Phillip Jerez, who joined the team fresh off a win in NYC, made it look easy, helping land 170 endorsements from all corners of the Democratic Party and key labor unions. The results speak for themselves.

Team Maxwell Frost — Frost emerged from a Primary that included two former members of Congress and a sitting state lawmaker with name ID and a reputation as one of the few effective Democrats in the Senate. Campaign manager Kevin Lata proved once again he knows how to craft a winning campaign and 2024 Orlando candidates would be smart to snap up Alex Weeden ASAP. The rank-and-file campaign staff also deserve a huge shoutout for acing the GOTV effort.

Team Book — The SD 35 Democratic Primary was ugly and shouldn’t have happened in the first place. But it did, and a squeaker wouldn’t exactly inspire confidence in the Senate Democratic Leader heading into a brutal election cycle for Dems across the state. Lauren Book’s team delivered. Consultant Christian Ulvert, pollster Steve Vancore, the team at MDW, and the many staffers and volunteers who fanned out across the Broward district delivered a mandate and silenced the haters.

Team Davis — Tracie Davis still has to get by a Republican in November, but SD 5’s makeup virtually guarantees that’ll happen. What’s less certain is whether she’ll manage to win by a wider margin in November than she did in August — and that’s saying something. A lot of fundraisers, consultants and campaign pros deserve a slice of credit for her 37-point win. Here’s a non-exhaustive list: Dan Newman, Kasey Denny, Greg Goddard, Mary Summers and John Brown.

Jason Pizzo — In the past, Legislative Democrats have settled for lightweights just to pad their numbers in Tally. That’s not good enough for Pizzo. He’s not afraid to weed out members of the caucus who break ranks on key issues and he has the fundraising chops to follow through to add bite to his bark. He’s also proved to be a Mariano Rivera-esque relief pitcher, stepping up when the current caucus leader had one hand tied behind her back during Primary season. If he wasn’t a front-runner to succeed Book as Senate Democratic Leader before the Primary, he is now.

Juan Porras — There’s a Gen Z’er snagging national headlines for winning the Dem nomination for CD 10, but Florida Republicans have their own up-and-comer to celebrate. Porras — who is just 25 years old — made it look easy, too. He went into a five-way GOP Primary in House District 119 and faced off against two candidates who shelled out more than $100K apiece and racked up 48% of the vote. Keep an eye on this one.

Americans for Prosperity — Their grassroots army may as well be led by Stormin’ Norman with the number of easy wins it racked up, but Brian Thiele is a good substitute. U.S. Reps. Kat Cammack and Maria Salazar cruised — as expected — but they also deployed to CD 15 and pounded the pavement for Laurel Lee, who made two sitting lawmakers with cash in the bank look like a couple of tomato cans.

Florida Chamber of Commerce — President and CEO Mark Wilson and his team talk a lot about the “Florida Model” — the nickname for their strategic plan that state-level chambers across the country are trying to emulate. There’s a reason why: It works. Not only does the Chamber develop tools that help businesses do their part in improving the lives of all Floridians, they crunch data, develop local leaders into top-tier candidates, and follow through with campaign support to make sure all the pieces fall into place. You don’t go 37 out of 40 on endorsed candidates by accident.

Florida House leadership — There will be a lot of familiar faces in Tallahassee next Session. Future House Speaker Sam Garrison said it best in a Primary night tweet: “We win as a team and we all come back.” He’s right. Other than Elizabeth Fetterhoff, who lost to Webster Barnaby in the only incumbent-on-incumbent showdown, no Republican who sought re-election will be missing when Speaker-D Paul Renner takes the gavel.

Florida Justice Association — Tort reform is one of those phrases you need a JD to truly understand, but after the Primary Election, you may as well throw away the flash card. FJA is the big winner here, as Erin Grall and Jonathan Martin are cruising into the Senate and Hillary Cassel is heading to the House, crushing the dreams of tort reform advocates.

Ruth’s List — They work to get pro-choice women into elected office, and during the Primary they helped carry a sizable portion of down-ballot candidates — especially state House and School Board candidates — to the General Election or outright victory. VP of Political and Programs Kayla van Wieringen deserves a special shoutout for captaining the effort and putting the right people in place to rack up another 30 Ws.

Marc Reichelderfer — We really hope he likes the “The Marchitect” nickname because he earned it. Every cycle he takes on clients in tough races and leads them to convincing victories. This go around, he helped Laurel Lee crush two sitting lawmakers in a GOP Primary that could have easily gone sideways. He also consulted for the soon-to-be U.S. Rep. Aaron Bean, who cruised past a wannabe and a never-was in Florida’s 4th Congressional District.

James Blair — His fingerprints were on several high-profile elections this cycle, and they were all Ws. The top-tier races include helping Anna Paulina Luna secure the repeat as the GOP nominee in CD 13 and putting Cory Mills over the top in CD 7 — so, yes, you can send him a thank you card for dumpstering Sabatini. Bonus points for his work on Taylor Yarkoski’s campaign in HD 25 and Jessica Baker’s high-margin win in HD 17.

Christian Ulvert — He helped Book secure the blowout win against Barbara Sharief and, more impressive, had a hand in defeating fair-weather Democratic Rep. James Bush and replacing him with Ashley Gantt in a nailbiter down in HD 109. It was a team win, with vocal support from top legislative Democrats but without his sweat effort the race could have easily come down to a few hundred votes in the other direction.

Consensus Communications — Here’s a simple test: Did you see a memorable ad ahead of the Primary Election? Was it for a Republican? Did that Republican win? Well, chances are that ad came from the rockstars at Consensus Communications. It’s crown jewel was Laurel Lee’s decisive victory in CD 15, but they also helped get the W for Aaron Bean, Scott Franklin, Joel Rudman and Jim Mooney.

Bascom Communications – Only one public affairs firm handled comms for two winning GOP congressional campaigns: Sarah Bascom and her team, which guided messaging for Aaron Bean in CD 4 and Laurel Lee in CD 15.

Enwright Rimes — They played in eight races and went almost undefeated. And in several of those races stomped the opposition into oblivion. Look no further than HD 5, where Shane Abbott racked up 68% of the vote in a three-way Primary that included the son of a former state Representative. Is there a stronger word than “mandate?” Their Supernova Digital offshoot also deserves a shoutout for its work on Lee County School Board races.

“Florida Black Girls” — Specifically, Jasmen Rogers, Maya Brown and Lindsay Pollard. Not only do they have a great lineup of digital content and interviews, they are all consultants on races that saw huge wins in Central and South Florida. Expect 2024 campaigns to start lining up to get them on board ASAP, if they haven’t already.

St. Pete Polls — Once again, Matt Florell’s operation showed it was one of the most on-target pollsters in the state. When it showed Crist up 25 points in the Democratic Primary, it raised eyebrows — and ire from the Fried camp, which had plenty of nasty things to say about the final poll forecasting her massive defeat. When the votes were counted, however, they confirmed the 25-point (24.36, actually, but close enough) and St. Pete Polls’ critics were silenced once again.

Tim Baker — The Republican Primary in House District 17 was bloodsport between first-time candidates Christina Meredith and Jessica Baker. Unfortunately, for Meredith, her opponent’s husband is Tim Baker and he knows how to crush it in Northeast Florida, leading her to a blowout win in HD 17.

Tony Cortese — What a roster of clients this top fundraiser has: Jay Trumbull, Ralph Massullo, Josie Tomkow, Lawrence McClure, Linda Chaney, Jim Mooney, Jennifer Canady, Griff Griffitts, Kevin Steele, Daniel Alvarez, Brad Yeager, and so many other Primary-winning candidates. Cortese may have hit his stride while one of his top clients, Chris Sprowls, was in the Speaker’s Office, but it does not look like he’s yet his apex.

Brett Doster — He scored the easy win working on Sen. Doug Broxson’s re-election bid in SD 1, which ended with a 76%-24% rout in the Primary. But his big win came in Central Florida’s HD 45, where he helped newcomer Carolina Amesty emerge from a packed field featuring deep-pocketed opponents, some of whom had built up name-ID through past congressional bids. It wasn’t close in the end, with Amesty notching 45% of the vote in a five-way race. Her closest competitor didn’t manage half that.

Max Goodman — Sure most predicted that Vern Buchanan would handily defeat the Roger Stone– and Michael Flynn-endorsed Martin Hyde but nobody would have said that the Southwest Florida Congressman would post the largest vote percentage of any Republican in Florida. Goodman, Buchanan’s tenacious consultant, knows the ultimate goal is for his client to ascend to the Ways and Means chairmanship and that can’t happen without remaining a member of Congress. Goodman made sure of that … and he helped Sen. Joe Gruters skate back to Tally, too.

David Johnson — The former RPOF executive director still knows how to pick ‘em. His big wins this cycle came in CD 4, where he helped Aaron Bean brush off the threat posed by a possibly fraudulent Primary challenger, and in CD 15, where he led the Super PAC that helped former Secretary of State Laurel Lee run up the score against two well-known state lawmakers.

Eric Johnson, Brendan Olsen — This duo is going to need a bigger trophy case. They had a hand in races up and down the ticket in South Florida, landing assists on the winning campaigns for Jared Moskowitz in CD 23, Hillary Cassel in HD 101 and Kelly Skidmore in HD 92. Johnson racked up a couple more via Michelle McGovern’s PBC Commission bid and Jordan Leonard in HD 106, while Olsen also snagged a W on Lori Alhadeff’s Broward School Board re-election bid.

MDW — Michael Worley and Andrew Dolberg are two Plantation guys who know their turf. They signed onto three big-time campaigns in Broward — they helped Shev Jones skate to re-election, punched Jared Moskowitz’s ticket to D.C. and snuffed out an unnecessary but costly Primary challenger to Lauren Book. One could argue they helped powerhouses roll the political equivalent of an FCS school, but that early SD 35 poll proves otherwise.

Ryan Smith — This entry doesn’t need any fluff because the list of wins will put him over the word limit and then some. Here’s a sampling: Jeff Holcomb for HD 53, Taylor Yarkosky for HD 25, Tom Goodson and Rob Feltner for Brevard County Commission, Jennifer Russell for Martin County School Board, Anna Paulina Luna for CD 13, PAC support for Matt Gaetz in CD 1, anti-incumbent Commission candidates in Nassau County, and, of course, crushing Sabs in CD 7.

Chris Latvala — O’Brien, Brodie, Krieg, Bartkowski. Those are some of the best behind-the-scenes quarterbacks to ever play the game. If politics were played on a gridiron, Latvala would be on that list. When Kim Berfield entered the HD 65 race, most thought she was outmatched, but with Latvala on the team she crushed Jason Holloway by 25 points.

Blaise Ingoglia — Sure, he’s going to the Senate, which is enough for a Winner entry in and of itself. But he’s also been working behind the scenes to help little-known GOP pols become up-and-coming stars. He put his money down in three Hernando School Board races, helping one win outright and the other two live to fight another day in runoff elections. He also anted up more than any incumbent lawmaker on Kiyan Michael’s campaign, proving he knows how to win even when he’s not sitting at a felted table.

Terry Miller — This political consultant likes to fly under the radar and typically sticks to races on his own turf, and that has proven to be a very successful strategy. Tuesday night he went 11 for 11 in Lee and Collier County races, including a 70% win for soon-to-be Rep. Tiffany Esposito. Throw in the fact that his other legislative clients, Reps. Spencer Roach and Mike Giallombardo and soon-to-be Sen. Jonathan Martin, went unopposed in an area where only the Primary Election matters, and it’s clear Miller is the Kingmaker of Southwest Florida.

Alex Miranda — He was the General Consultant to Juan Carlos Porras in HD 119 and led the up-and-coming zoomer to a 28-point win in a 5-way primary against all the establishment consultants in Miami. But that was one of many gigs he had this cycle. He also served as a Special Advisor to Kevin Marino Cabrera in his 17-point win against Jorge Fors; as the consultant/mail vendor in a city of Miami referendum that passed 60%-40%; as the HD 120 voter contact for Jim Mooney in one of the closest races of the Primary Election. Oh yeah, he also gets a slice of credit for helping Ana Maria Rodriguez, Alexis Calatayud,and Bryan Avila.

Mark Zubaly — He was the consultant for Michelle Salzman and deserves credit for preventing another Mike Hill comeback in the state House, which would have erased the exuberance all decent Floridians are feeling now that Sabs is back to being a nobody. Just as sweet, he prevented Hill’s former aide, Mariya Calkins, from heading to Tallahassee by helping Joel Rudman score a convincing win in HD 3.

Mikey Caruso — When Rep. Mike Caruso picked his campaign manager, he decided to keep it in the family. For some candidates that would be a mistake — but it worked out here. Mikey Caruso took the top job on the campaign and managed to navigate an entirely new district for his dad better than many pros. We wouldn’t be surprised if Mikey has other candidates competing to peel him away from his dad’s next campaign.

Sydney Fowler — She got off to a rocky after her boss, Rep. Jayer Williamson, decided not to seek re-election. She quickly transitioned to managing Danny Alvarez’s campaign for HD 69 helped her candidate notch a 70-point win on Primary Election Day. Now, her sights are set on completing the flip in November, and new maps make that a real possibility.

Cooper Harrison — This young up-and-comer has built an impressive resume over the past four election cycles, quickly becoming a go-to campaign manager in Bay and Jackson County. An FSU Law grad, former aide to Rep. Jay Trumbull, and Florida Gubernatorial Fellows alum, Harrison has is working on a couple high-profile campaigns this cycle: Ann Leonard for Bay County School Board and Corey Simon for SD 3. The former already won and the latter is a legit threat to flip a key Democratic-held Senate seat.

Duval Republicans — They owned the school tax referendum and also got their two candidates — Charlotte Joyce and April Carney — across the finish line.

Duval Schools — Superintendent Diana Greene, Board Chair Darryl D. Willie, and the rest of the members of the Duval School Board deserve a shoutout for helping get another school tax referendum across the finish line. Getting one through is an accomplishment — they did that in 2020 — but it was a tougher sell this year. In the end, it got an OK with 53% of the vote.

Jonathan Levin — He was the top guy on Rep. Jim Mooney’s re-election campaign in HD 120 and helped the incumbent prevail in one of the closest state House elections of the night. That required batting down spurious attacks and long hours of reaching out to voters in the hotly contested district, which surely netted his candidate far more than the 90 votes that separated him from the competition.

Mike Moore — The Pasco County Commissioner is on his way out the door, but he proved Tuesday that he still has a couple strings to pull. Moore went two-for-two on endorsed County Commission candidates with Seth Weightman and Gary Bradford. One ousted an incumbent and another flushed $100K down the drain only to lose. Oh yeah, he was also on the winning side in two competitive judicial races.

Alex Pantinakis — This consultant had a big night on Tuesday, shepherding Duval GOP Chair Dean Black to an easy win in the Primary for HD 15 — it helps that the campaign locked down a bundle of endorsements and raised boatloads of cash. What made the victory even sweeter was that Black won every precinct in the Northeast Florida district. And even though TK Waters didn’t manage to win the Duval Sheriff contest outright, Pantinakis’ efforts got him close. His 47% vote share is double digits above what his November opponent managed.

Alex Smith — Here’s another up-and-comer in the GOP campaign circuit. The recent FSU grad quarterbacked a winning campaign in the Pensacola Mayor race. D.C. Reeves was in a four-way race to succeed Grover Robinson. With that many candidates on the ballot, the contest could have easily gone to a runoff, but Smith helped put a fork in it in August. Now, the question is who’ll snap him up next.

Erin Wiley and Parsons Wilson — The Supreme Court’s Roe v. Wade ruling is the wild card of the 2022 election. The only question is whether Democrats can capitalize on it. If they want to, they would do well to take a page from the Wiley/Parsons playbook, which helped put twice-unsuccessful candidate Nancy Jacobs win a close election to remove Judge Jared Smith from the bench.

Diversity — The GOP is not the party of old White men. Not in Florida at least. There were 42 Republican Primaries for state legislative seats across the state and only nine featured a field of exclusively White men. And of the 33 Republican Primaries that weren’t all White men, women and minority candidates won 21 of them.

Diversity, Part II — Republicans put up a lot of diverse candidates this cycle, but let’s give them an extra shoutout for actually supporting them in districts that weren’t drawn to overtly favor Black and Brown candidates. The Governor and Florida GOP showed the party doesn’t need to give candidates like former Rep. Mike Hill a second look for diversity’s sake and can instead raise the bar with likely future Reps. Berny Jacques and Kiyan Michael. Interpret this as a sign of what’s to come in the Ausley vs. Simon race.

Legal eagles — Quite a few lawyers earned their retainers in the two months between the qualifying deadline and the Primary Election. Mike Beltran got one client, Jerry Torres, back on the ballot in CD 14, and another one, Berny Jacques, cleared his primary by 20 points. Shoutouts to Mike Sasso for notching a win against the brilliant Mark Herron on the Osceola School Board litigation and Carter Anderson, who beat a guy off the ballot in Pinellas. Also, no matter your opinion on Rebekah Jones, Ben Keuhne pulled a rabbit out of his hat to get her back on the ballot — and thereby the Dem nomination — in CD 1.

Mixed bag

Beth Matuga — We’re not going to dog her too hard over Kamia Brown’s loss in SD 15. Geraldine Thompson is a known quantity who’s represented the area for well over a decade. But there’s not sugarcoating it — her candidate got curb-stomped by the Tracie Davis operation in SD 5. It was a heads-up contest and Reggie Gaffney held the cash lead for most of the race but crumbled in the final stretch. Let’s see if she can bounce back from a tough Tuesday to get Sen. Loranne Ausley another term in SD 3.

Travaris McCurdy — Yes, he lost re-election and a lot of people are sad to see him go, but they can take solace in the fact that he’s leaving office before the new six-year lobbying ban goes into effect. With over 10 years of experience as a Senate staffer and as a former member of the House, he’ll bring a lot of value to whatever firm snags him.

Anthony Pedicini — He lost big on a few candidates including Jackie Toledo in CD 15 and Jennifer Wilson in HD 59. He only barely squeaked by with Karen Gonzalez Pittman in South Tampa, too. But he still had the magic touch for a slew of local candidates, such as St. Lucie County Commission candidate Jamie Fowler, leading her to a 60%-40% despite an onslaught of negative and nasty attacks from the St. Lucie County REC, which was backing her opponent. He also took out two incumbents in Manatee County.

Losers 

Kevin Cate — The man knows how to shoot a good ad … but, wow. Nikki Fried’s campaign was doomed months ago, but he either put on an Oscar-worthy performance of being a true believer, or someone took a sledgehammer to his picker. He needs to log in to his Medium account and scrub that pro-Nikki essay ASAP.

Matt Van Name — He was on Team Crist in 2014 and stuck around for a bit afterward before throwing a hissy fit after he didn’t get the Chief of Staff job when Crist headed to Congress. Then Van Name had the bright idea to hop on board Team Fried this cycle. That ship sunk, and there’s no sign of land, Captain.

Keith Edwards — Fried’s campaign, on the whole, was a bold-face, underscored, capital “L.” She would have still lost without the many quizzical comms decisions Edwards made, but the negative missives against popular Dems such as Rep. Anna V. Eskamani, his accusations that journos were being paid off, and his alienation of key environmental groups mean there’s no soft landing for him as the General Election ramps up.

Team Aguilar — There’s no such thing as an election without a loser. Most of them accept defeat with grace and humility. Not Erick Aguilar. His operation was run by venomous miscreants out of a lair less inviting than a trash can fire in a prison cell — which is a setting they may just find themselves in once the full truth of their fundraising scheme sees daylight. And, yes, Nick Britton, we’re talking about you.

Michael Ahearn — As the saying goes, “Those who can, do, those who can’t, teach.” Well, swap out teach for consult and that sums up Ahearn’s bid for Broward County Judge. After dumping a lot of cash into his candidacy, he only managed to get 20% of the vote in a three-way race.

Nick Carr —This once young, rising star in the consulting world has instead become a falling comet. While he managed to ride the coattails of U.S. Rep. Francis Rooney for a short time, he has faltered on his own. His client, Ford O’Connell, a Fox News commentator, had all the makings to win in HD 77. Instead, he spent $250,000 to receive an embarrassing less than 30% of the vote. Carr also represented O’Connell in his torpedoed 2020 Congressional race, jumping ship to help Casey Askar spend $3 million for a third-place finish behind Byron Donalds and Dane Eagle.

David Custin — A 28-point loss is rough. A 28-point loss when your guy has the money lead and is up against a zoomer who was a virtual unknown a year ago is tougher. We’re not trying to minimize Juan Carlos Porras’ accomplishment in HD 119, but you can’t spin the final tally — it’s nothing short of a black eye.

Buddy Dyer — You’d think someone who has been in elected office — nearly 20 of them as Orlando Mayor — would have a little pull in a Democratic Primary for Congress on his home turf. Nope. He endorsed Terence Gray for CD 10 and we’re not sure that anyone in the Orlando-area district knew it because Gray’s campaign pulled about as many votes as a blank line on the ballot. Yeesh.

John Ward — We’ve seen a handful of text messages about him that went out Tuesday night and believe us when we say they’re not fit to print. The bottom line is, for someone with 20 years in The Process, he doesn’t know how to produce, and there’s a dwindling list of people who will offer him a shoulder to cry on. His only saving grace — and there’s a slim chance it comes through — is a potential Fetterhoff win in House District 29 … oh, wait.

Palm Beach County Firefighters — We’re glad they don’t try to throw dollar bills on actual fires, because we just saw how that would work out. They dumped $500K-plus into Matt Willhite’s campaign in what is believed to be one of the most expensive county-level races in Palm Beach County history and he managed to snag just a third of the vote.

Retreads — It was a bad night to be a retread attempting a comeback. Tony Hill, Lake Ray, Mike Hill, Corinne Brown, Alan Grayson. A 25-year-old Uber driver took out two of them single-handedly. Nikki Fried may not have won, but her “Something New” slogan proved otherwise successful.

Amy Rose — Hopefully, the checks Sharief wrote her cleared because her reputation as a campaign consultant took a beating last week. Chances are, big-name campaigns won’t be signing her on anytime soon, either, because being a top-level staffer on the losing side of a nasty Primary race isn’t exactly a resume builder.

Roger Stone — Somebody must have ripped a hole in his bag of tricks, because he came up empty in every race he weighed in on Tuesday. He backed Amanda Makki for CD 13 and overstepped on his pull in Trumpworld by suggesting the former guy would pull his endorsement of Anna Paulina Luna. He also bet on Martin Hyde over Vern Buchanan in CD 16 and Laura Loomer over Daniel Webster in CD 11. We don’t know whether to laugh or call in for a wellness check.

UNF polls — If their goal is to bring attention to the university, it’s working. But it’s the kind of attention that makes one wonder whether the polling lab is run by The Amazing Criswell. Most could look past a five- or 10-point error, but a poll that’s 30-points off in a statewide race? That’s all madness, no method.

Michael Ahearn — As the saying goes, “Those who can, do, those who can’t, teach.” Well, swap out teach for consult and that sums up Ahearn’s bid for Broward County Judge. After dumping a lot of cash into his candidacy, he only managed to get 20% of the vote in a three-way race.

Amy Rose — Hopefully, the checks Sharief wrote her cleared because her reputation as a campaign consultant took a beating last week. Chances are, big-name campaigns won’t be signing her on anytime soon, either, because being a top-level staffer on the losing side of a nasty Primary race isn’t exactly a resume builder.